2020 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2020 · Milan Puskar Stadium
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Win probability · WVU
modelWVU aheadEKU aheadconfidence bandkey playWVU scoreEKU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:08 · Thomas Cook punt for 43 yds , Alec Sinkfield returns for no gain to the WVirg 40 Alec Sinkfield fumbled, recovered by WVirg Alec Sinkfield
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:59: Jarret Doege pass complete to Sam James for 32 yds for a TD (Evan Staley KICK) — WVU win probability +0.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:49: Peyton McKinney pass complete to Keyion Dixon for 28 yds for a TD (Alexander Woznick KICK) — EKU win probability +1.0 pts (now 2%) (top driver: EKU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:22: Alec Sinkfield run for 8 yds for a TD (Evan Staley KICK) — WVU win probability +0.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:33: Leddie Brown run for 8 yds for a TD (Evan Staley KICK) — WVU win probability +0.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 12:16: Alexander Woznick 32 yd FG GOOD WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined — EKU win probability +0.2 pts (now 0%) (top driver: EKU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WVU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5EKU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
- Q1 13:22EKU 4th & 1 at EKU 35, down 7Close callPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%−0.1average punt
- Q1 6:08EKU 4th & 6 at EKU 17, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snapGo for it1.5%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.6%average punt
- Q1 4:07WVU 4th & 7 at WVU 43, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.3% before the snapGo for it98.3%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.4%average punt
- Q2 15:00EKU 4th & 16 at EKU 13, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snapGo for it1.9%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.1%average punt
- Q2 8:16EKU 4th & 13 at EKU 25, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.1%−0.219% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.3%average punt
- Q2 6:28WVU 4th & 5 at WVU 46, up 21Close callPunted · 98.7% before the snapGo for it98.7%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 2:29EKU 4th & 5 at EKU 20, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.3%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 12:16EKU 4th & 12 at WVU 15, down 35Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.121% to convertField goalTheir call0.4%83% to makePunt-0.1%−0.4average punt
- Q3 8:07EKU 4th & 18 at EKU 17, down 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 6:29WVU 4th & 2 at EKU 13, up 39Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%56% to convertField goal99.8%−0.185% to makePunt99.3%−0.5average punt
- Q3 0:04WVU 4th & 8 at EKU 8, up 39Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.126% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%90% to makePunt99.4%−0.5average punt
- Q4 15:00EKU 4th & 15 at EKU 15, down 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 13:30WVU 4th & 1 at midfield, up 39Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.8%−0.2average punt
- Q4 11:27EKU 4th & 13 at EKU 47, down 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.120% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WVU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8EKU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 13:28WVU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.8%97% to makeGo for two98.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:23WVU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.5%97% to makeGo for two98.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:59WVU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.9%97% to makeGo for two98.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:49EKU Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call2.2%97% to makeGo for two2.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:22WVU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.9%97% to makeGo for two98.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:33WVU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:31WVU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:07WVU Touchdown, up 38 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:00WVU Touchdown, up 45 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWVUDrive 1TD5 plays · 82 yds · 1:3299% → 99%
EKUDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:001% → 1%
WVUDrive 3TD11 plays · 80 yds · 5:0699% → 99%
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
99.0%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 2 yds to the WVirg 22Similar
Q1 11:29
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+24
99.0%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 24 yds to the WVirg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
99.0%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Reese Smith for 4 yds to the EKent 35Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+8
99.0%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sam Brown for 8 yds to the EKent 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
99.0%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Alec Sinkfield for a loss of 5 yards to the EKent 32Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 15
OPP 32
+22
99.0%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sam Brown for 22 yds to the EKent 10 for a 1ST down EASTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+15
98.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Leddie Brown for 15 yds for a TD (Evan Staley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
WVUDrive 5PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 4:07
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+8
98.8%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sam James for 8 yds to the WVirg 48Similar
Q1 4:07
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
98.7%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Sam James, broken up by Allante LeapheartSimilar
Q1 4:07
4TH & 7
OWN 0
0
98.7%
Tyler Sumpter punt 29 yards to the EKU28, downed, PENALTY EKU personal foul off-setting, PENALTY WVU kick catching interference off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:07
4TH & 7
OWN 43
+56
98.7%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 56 yds, downed at the WESTVIR 1 EASTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) to the EKent 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 12 yds · 2:391% → 2%
Q1 2:39
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+15
98.6%
Peyton McKinney pass complete to Keyion Dixon for 15 yds to the EKent 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:39
3RD & 10
OWN 19
-6
98.6%
Peyton McKinney sacked by VanDarius Cowan for a loss of 6 yards to the EKent 13Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 13
+3
98.4%
Thomas Cook punt for 38 yds , Alec Sinkfield returns for 3 yds to the EKent 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 7TD4 plays · 48 yds · 1:4799% → 99%
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
99.0%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sam James for 32 yds for a TD (Evan Staley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 8TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:101% → 2%
WVUDrive 9TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2198% → 99%
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
98.2%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sam James for 9 yds to the WVirg 34Similar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+17
98.3%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sam James for 17 yds to the EKent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
98.3%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sam James for 6 yds to the EKent 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 10PUNT6 plays · -3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 8:16
4TH & 13
OWN 25
0
98.9%
Thomas Cook punt for 39 yds , Alec Sinkfield returns for no gain to the WVirg 25 WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the WVirg 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
99.0%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Sam James (HAYES, Josh), PENALTY EKU pass interference (HAYES, Josh) 15 yards to the WVU41, 1ST DOWN WVU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:28
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+5
99.0%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sam Brown for 5 yds to the WVirg 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 12INT9 plays · 9 yds · 1:311% → 1%
WVUDrive 13TD4 plays · 58 yds · 1:0699% → 100%
Q2 3:39
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+13
99.1%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 13 yds to the EKent 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 14PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
99.7%
Peyton McKinney pass complete to Tyris Dickerson for 5 yds to the EKent 20Similar
Q2 2:29
4TH & 5
OPP 0
0
99.5%
PENALTY EKU unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY WVU unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:29
4TH & 5
OWN 20
+11
99.7%
Thomas Cook punt for 33 yds , Alec Sinkfield returns for 11 yds to the EKent 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 15TD7 plays · 42 yds · 1:11100% → 100%
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
99.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Reese Smith for 6 yds to the EKent 36Similar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+20
99.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 20 yds to the EKent 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.7%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton, broken up by Daulson FitzpatrickSimilar
Q2 0:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 8 yds for a TD (Evan Staley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 16END OF HALF3 plays · 23 yds · 0:000% → 0%
EKUDrive 17FG9 plays · 60 yds · 2:440% → 0%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
99.8%
Peyton McKinney run for a loss of 3 yards to the EKent 27 Peyton McKinney fumbled, forced by VanDarius Cowan, recovered by EKent Jacquez JonesSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.8%
McKINNEY, P. pass incomplete to SANCHEZ, Collin (Josh Chandler), PENALTY WVU roughing passer (VanDarius Cowan) 15 yards to the EKU40, 1ST DOWN EKU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+47
99.8%
Peyton McKinney pass complete to Jacquez Jones for 47 yds to the WVirg 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 15
0
99.8%
Peyton McKinney pass incomplete to Matt Wilcox Jr., broken up by Alonzo AddaeSimilar
Q3 12:16
4TH & 12
OPP 15
+32
99.6%
Alexander Woznick 32 yd FG GOOD WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 18TD14 plays · 75 yds · 4:09100% → 100%
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
99.8%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Sean Ryan for 8 yds to the EKent 37Similar
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
99.8%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 5 yds to the EKent 24Similar
Q3 12:16
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+4
99.8%
Alec Sinkfield run for 14 yds to the EKent 10 WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive holding (Sean Ryan) to the EKent 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 19PUNT5 plays · -8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 8:07
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-3
99.9%
Peyton McKinney sacked by Jared Bartlett for a loss of 3 yards to the EKent 17Similar
Q3 8:07
4TH & 18
OWN 17
+2
99.9%
Phillip Richards punt for 39 yds , Alec Sinkfield returns for 2 yds to the WVirg 19 WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the WVirg 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 20MISSED FG12 plays · 56 yds · 6:25100% → 100%
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+30
99.9%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Graeson Malashevich for 30 yds to the EKent 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 21PUNT4 plays · -5 yds · 0:040% → 0%
Q3 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.9%
Peyton McKinney pass complete to Tyris Dickerson for no gain to the EKent 20Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-5
99.9%
Peyton McKinney sacked by Akheem Mesidor for a loss of 5 yards to the EKent 15Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 15
+5
99.9%
Phillip Richards punt for 34 yds , Graeson Malashevich returns for 5 yds to the WVirg 20 WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, failure to wear required equipment (15 Yards) to the WVirg 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 22DOWNS4 plays · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 23PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:27
3RD & 6
OPP 46
-7
99.9%
Dakota Allen sacked by Taurus Simmons for a loss of 7 yards to the EKent 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 24TD16 plays · 96 yds · 7:18100% → 100%
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+20
99.9%
Garrett Greene run for 5 yds to the WVirg 9 for a 1ST down EASTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, personal foul (Jason Betts) to the WVirg 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
99.9%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Charles Finley for 2 yds to the WVirg 37Similar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+11
99.9%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Reese Smith for 11 yds to the WVirg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
99.9%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Reese Smith for 11 yds to the EKent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
99.9%
Garrett Greene run for 13 yds to the EKent 28 WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive holding (Freddie Brown) to the EKent 38Similar
Q4 9:18
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+14
99.9%
Lorenzo Dorr run for a loss of 1 yard to the EKent 39 for a 1ST down EASTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, targeting (Allante Leapheart) to the EKent 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 25END OF GAME6 plays · 23 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:49
Peyton McKinney pass complete to Keyion Dixon for 28 yds for a TD (Alexander Woznick KICK)
-1
TD · Q2 8:22
Alec Sinkfield run for 8 yds for a TD (Evan Staley KICK)
+0.8
TD · Q2 12:59
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sam James for 32 yds for a TD (Evan Staley KICK)
+0.5