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OKST

Oklahoma State 22 at TCU 29

TCU
2020 · Week 14 · Dec 5, 2020 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadOKST aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreOKST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FUMBLETDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:55 · Griffin Kell 43 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 43Home team on offense−4.8Pregame prior−5.6Garbage-time factor−1.4Score differential−1.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9Blowout margin−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:42: Max Duggan run for 1 yd for a TD TCU Penalty, Personal Foul (T.J. Storment) to the OKSt 18 (Griffin Kell KICK) — TCU win probability +10.4 pts (now 42%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:47: Max Duggan run for 42 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK) — TCU win probability +14.5 pts (now 48%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. TD · Q3 6:10: Zach Evans run for 1 yd for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK) — TCU win probability +15.5 pts (now 68%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:07: Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 55 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — OKST win probability +20.1 pts (now 57%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:56: Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 71 yds for a TD (Max Duggan pass to Quentin Johnston for Two-Point Conversion) — TCU win probability +36.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10OKST made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 13:23OKST 4th & 7 at OKST 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:52TCU 4th & 11 at TCU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:03OKST 4th & 18 at TCU 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%−0.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    56.1%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:23TCU 4th & 7 at TCU 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:55TCU 4th & 6 at OKST 26, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.2%
    64% to make
    Punt
    36.7%−2.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:12OKST 4th & 2 at OKST 46, up 13
    Close callPunted · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.7%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:31TCU 4th & 7 at TCU 15, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:03OKST 4th & 13 at TCU 25, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%−1.5
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.7%
    66% to make
    Punt
    58.4%−6.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:44TCU 4th & 10 at TCU 38, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:49OKST 4th & 7 at OKST 41, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%−1.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.7%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:15OKST 4th & 7 at OKST 5, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.1%−3.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:14TCU 4th & 1 at TCU 47, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    32.6%−2.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:47TCU 4th & 1 at OKST 42, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    28.6%−5.0
    30% to make
    Punt
    29.6%−4.0
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:01OKST 4th & 4 at OKST 31, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%−1.9
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.2%
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:17OKST 4th & 6 at OKST 39, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.7%
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:52OKST 4th & 7 at TCU 20, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%−1.5
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    23.4%−14.8
    average punt
  17. Q3 0:16TCU 4th & 18 at TCU 12, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%−8.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 13:25TCU 4th & 4 at midfield, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.3%−1.9
    average punt
  19. Q4 11:08OKST 4th & 5 at midfield, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%−1.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 8:56OKST 4th & 5 at TCU 39, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.9 ptsPunted · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    53.9%−3.4
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%−2.9
    average punt
  21. Q4 2:18OKST 4th & 12 at TCU 28, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.6%−1.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    10.6%
    60% to make
    Punt
    5.6%−5.0
    average punt
  22. Q4 0:33TCU 4th & 15 at TCU 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%−1.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4OKST made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 4:11OKST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    59.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:42TCU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:47TCU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:10TCU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:07OKST Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    55.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    55.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:56TCU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    74.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    74.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OKSTDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3257% → 57%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
42.6%
Dezmon Jackson run for 2 yds to the OKSt 29Similar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+2
42.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 2 yds to the OKSt 31Similar
Q1 14:08
3RD & 7
OWN 31
0
42.8%
Dezmon Jackson run for no gain to the OKSt 31Similar
Q1 13:23
4TH & 7
OWN 31
-2
43.1%
Tom Hutton punt for 47 yds , Derius Davis returns for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2FUMBLE TD
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:3143% → 43%
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
43.1%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Pro WellsSimilar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
43.1%
Zach Evans run for 5 yds to the TCU 25Similar
Q1 12:40
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+6
43.2%
Max Duggan run for 6 yds to the TCU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
43.5%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 4 yds to the TCU 35Similar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+3
43.8%
Zach Evans run for 3 yds to the TCU 38Similar
Q1 11:09
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+4
43.9%
Max Duggan run for 4 yds to the TCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+42
42.6%
Zach Evans run for no gain Zach Evans fumbled, forced by Malcolm Rodriguez, recovered by OKSt Brock Martin , return for 42 yds (Ben Freehill KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:4642% → 42%
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
42.2%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 24Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
42.2%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Darwin BarlowSimilar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
42.0%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:52
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
41.8%
Jordy Sandy punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Dillon Stoner at the OKSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:4058% → 58%
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+26
41.7%
Dezmon Jackson run for 26 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-6
41.2%
Spencer Sanders run for a loss of 6 yards to the TCU 41Similar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 16
OPP 41
0
41.3%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Landon WolfSimilar
Q1 8:39
3RD & 16
OPP 41
-2
41.5%
Spencer Sanders run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 43Similar
Q1 8:03
4TH & 18
OPP 43
0
41.9%
Tom Hutton punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Derius Davis at the TCU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3042% → 41%
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
41.8%
Darwin Barlow run for 5 yds to the TCU 16Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+3
41.8%
Zach Evans run for 3 yds to the TCU 19Similar
Q1 6:57
3RD & 2
OWN 19
-5
41.5%
TCU Penalty, False Start (Coy McMillon) to the TCU 14Similar
Q1 6:32
3RD & 7
OWN 14
0
41.3%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Taye BarberSimilar
Q1 6:23
4TH & 7
OWN 14
0
41.1%
Jordy Sandy punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Dillon Stoner at the OKSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 6TD
7 plays · 57 yds · 2:0459% → 62%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
40.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 2 yds to the OKSt 45Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+16
40.7%
Dezmon Jackson run for 16 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
40.5%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Tylan WallaceSimilar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+5
40.4%
Dezmon Jackson run for 5 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q1 4:54
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+29
40.5%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 29 yds to the TCU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
40.1%
Dezmon Jackson run for 4 yds to the TCU 1Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
37.6%
Dezmon Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD (Ben Freehill PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 7MISSED FG
10 plays · 49 yds · 4:1040% → 38%
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
39.7%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 20 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
38.9%
Darwin Barlow run for 12 yds to the OKSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
39.0%
Darwin Barlow run for 1 yd to the OKSt 42Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+3
38.8%
Max Duggan run for 3 yds to the OKSt 39Similar
Q1 2:06
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+9
38.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to Darwin Barlow for 9 yds to the OKSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-3
39.2%
Max Duggan pass complete to Darwin Barlow for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 33Similar
Q1 1:12
2ND & 13
OPP 33
+10
38.8%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 10 yds to the OKSt 23Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 23
-3
38.0%
Max Duggan run for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 26Similar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 6
OPP 26
+43
37.5%
Griffin Kell 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:3564% → 65%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
35.8%
Dezmon Jackson run for 12 yds to the OKSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
35.1%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 6 yds to the OKSt 44Similar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 4
OWN 44
0
34.8%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Tylan WallaceSimilar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+2
35.0%
Dezmon Jackson run for 2 yds to the OKSt 46Similar
Q2 13:12
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
35.2%
Tom Hutton punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Derius Davis at the TCU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:2936% → 35%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
36.0%
Kendre Miller run for 3 yds to the TCU 15Similar
Q2 12:48
2ND & 7
OWN 15
0
36.0%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Taye BarberSimilar
Q2 12:42
3RD & 7
OWN 15
0
35.4%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Quentin JohnstonSimilar
Q2 12:31
4TH & 7
OWN 15
-3
35.2%
Jordy Sandy punt for 53 yds , Dillon Stoner returns for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 10MISSED FG
8 plays · 46 yds · 2:1765% → 66%
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
34.7%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 3 yds to the OKSt 32Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 7
OWN 32
0
34.5%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Dillon StonerSimilar
Q2 11:51
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+46
34.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jelani Woods for 46 yds to the TCU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
33.4%
Dezmon Jackson run for 3 yds to the TCU 19Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+4
33.2%
Dezmon Jackson run for 4 yds to the TCU 15Similar
Q2 10:29
3RD & 3
OPP 15
-10
33.4%
Jackson, Dezmon rush for 10 yards to the TCU5, PENALTY OKLAST holding (Sills, Josh) 10 yards to the TCU25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:08
3RD & 13
OPP 25
0
33.4%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Tylan WallaceSimilar
Q2 10:03
4TH & 13
OPP 25
+42
34.1%
Brady Pohl 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 2:1335% → 33%
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
34.6%
Darwin Barlow run for 13 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
35.1%
Derius Davis run for 8 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 2
OWN 46
-1
35.4%
Darwin Barlow run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 45Similar
Q2 7:53
3RD & 3
OWN 45
-7
33.9%
Max Duggan run for a loss of 7 yards to the TCU 38 Max Duggan fumbled, recovered by TCU Max DugganSimilar
Q2 7:44
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
32.6%
Jordy Sandy punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Dillon Stoner at the OKSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:5067% → 68%
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
33.2%
Dezmon Jackson run for 4 yds to the OKSt 27Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+3
32.8%
Dezmon Jackson run for 3 yds to the OKSt 30Similar
Q2 6:41
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+8
33.0%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 8 yds to the OKSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
31.7%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Dillon StonerSimilar
Q2 6:07
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
31.1%
Dezmon Jackson run for 3 yds to the OKSt 41Similar
Q2 5:58
3RD & 7
OWN 41
0
31.2%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Tylan WallaceSimilar
Q2 5:49
4TH & 7
OWN 41
+43
31.9%
Tom Hutton punt for 43 yds , Derius Davis returns for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 13INT
7 plays · 61 yds · 2:4631% → 33%
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-9
31.2%
Max Duggan sacked by Cameron Murray for a loss of 9 yards to the TCU 6Similar
Q2 4:52
2ND & 19
OWN 6
+58
30.7%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 58 yds to the OKSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-2
32.6%
Kendre Miller run for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 38Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 12
OPP 38
0
32.0%
Kendre Miller run for no gain to the OKSt 38Similar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 12
OPP 38
+14
31.0%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 14 yds to the OKSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
33.1%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Derius DavisSimilar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
32.8%
Max Duggan pass intercepted Thomas Harper return for no gain to the OKSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 1:3370% → 72%
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
30.1%
Dezmon Jackson run for no gain to the OKSt 2Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 10
OWN 2
0
29.9%
Dezmon Jackson run for no gain to the OKSt 2Similar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 10
OWN 2
+3
29.4%
Dezmon Jackson run for 3 yds to the OKSt 5Similar
Q2 1:15
4TH & 7
OWN 5
0
28.4%
Tom Hutton punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Derius Davis at the OKSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 15TD
5 plays · 47 yds · 0:2731% → 42%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
30.6%
Max Duggan run for 9 yds to the OKSt 38Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 1
OPP 38
0
30.6%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Mikel BarkleySimilar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+6
30.3%
Emari Demercado run for 6 yds to the OKSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+31
31.8%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 31 yds to the OKSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
42.2%
Max Duggan run for 1 yd for a TD TCU Penalty, Personal Foul (T.J. Storment) to the OKSt 18 (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 16END OF HALF
8 plays · 49 yds · 0:3066% → 71%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
34.4%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 15 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
32.4%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
32.7%
Spencer Sanders run for no gain to the TCU 48Similar
Q2 0:13
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+28
33.3%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Braydon Johnson for 28 yds to the TCU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
31.3%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+6
31.4%
Dezmon Jackson run for 6 yds to the TCU 14Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+31
29.3%
Brady Pohl 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:0334% → 48%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
33.6%
Darwin Barlow run for 3 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q3 14:34
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
33.8%
Max Duggan pass complete to Darwin Barlow for 6 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q3 13:39
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
33.6%
Darwin Barlow run for 4 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
34.5%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Cameron Murray) to the TCU 43Similar
Q3 13:19
1ST & 5
OWN 43
+2
35.4%
Max Duggan run for 2 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q3 12:48
2ND & 3
OWN 45
0
35.0%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Derius DavisSimilar
Q3 12:36
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+2
34.1%
Emari Demercado run for 2 yds to the TCU 47Similar
Q3 12:14
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+2
33.4%
Max Duggan run for 2 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
34.7%
Emari Demercado run for 4 yds to the OKSt 47Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+3
35.3%
Emari Demercado run for 3 yds to the OKSt 44Similar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+2
33.8%
Max Duggan run for 2 yds to the OKSt 42Similar
Q3 9:47
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+42
48.3%
Max Duggan run for 42 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:3755% → 54%
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
44.7%
Dezmon Jackson run for 4 yds to the OKSt 29Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
43.9%
Dezmon Jackson run for 2 yds to the OKSt 31Similar
Q3 9:08
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
44.8%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Dillon StonerSimilar
Q3 9:01
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
46.5%
Tom Hutton punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Derius Davis at the TCU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19TD
6 plays · 68 yds · 2:4747% → 68%
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
46.9%
Zach Evans run for 4 yds to the TCU 36Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+46
49.1%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 46 yds to the OKSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
52.4%
Zach Evans run for 7 yds to the OKSt 11Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 3
OPP 11
+5
52.6%
Zach Evans run for 5 yds to the OKSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
52.8%
Taye Barber run for 5 yds to the OKSt 1Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
68.3%
Zach Evans run for 1 yd for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:4339% → 37%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
61.1%
Dezmon Jackson run for 1 yd to the OKSt 26Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
61.2%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tylan Wallace for no gain to the OKSt 26Similar
Q3 4:58
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+9
62.6%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 9 yds to the OKSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
60.6%
Dezmon Jackson run for 2 yds to the OKSt 37Similar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+2
60.5%
Dezmon Jackson run for 2 yds to the OKSt 39Similar
Q3 3:25
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
61.0%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Braydon JohnsonSimilar
Q3 3:17
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
63.1%
Tom Hutton punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Derius Davis at the TCU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 21FUMBLE
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
65.0%
Kendre Miller run for 3 yds to the TCU 23 Kendre Miller fumbled, forced by Amen Ogbongbemiga, recovered by OKSt Malcolm RodriguezSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 22MISSED FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0845% → 40%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
55.2%
Dezmon Jackson run for 1 yd to the TCU 22Similar
Q3 2:41
2ND & 9
OPP 22
0
55.3%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Tylan WallaceSimilar
Q3 2:31
3RD & 9
OPP 22
+2
57.9%
Spencer Sanders run for 2 yds to the TCU 20Similar
Q3 1:52
4TH & 7
OPP 20
+37
60.5%
Brady Pohl 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:2866% → 63%
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
65.7%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Darwin BarlowSimilar
Q3 1:37
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
65.5%
Max Duggan run for no gain to the TCU 20Similar
Q3 0:48
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-8
64.1%
Max Duggan sacked by Calvin Bundage for a loss of 8 yards to the TCU 12Similar
Q3 0:16
4TH & 18
OWN 12
0
63.3%
Jordy Sandy punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Dillon Stoner at the OKSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 24TD
1 play · 55 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q3 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
43.2%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 55 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 49 yds · 1:3646% → 48%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+15
45.6%
Duggan, Max pass incomplete to Barkley, Mikel, PENALTY OKLAST pass interference (Holmes, Christian) 15 yards to the TCU16, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TCU.Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+28
46.4%
Max Duggan run for 28 yds to the TCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
50.8%
Zach Evans run for 4 yds to the TCU 48Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+2
51.5%
Zach Evans run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:33
3RD & 4
50
0
51.0%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Mikel BarkleySimilar
Q4 13:25
4TH & 4
50
0
48.3%
Jordy Sandy punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Dillon Stoner at the OKSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 31 yds · 2:0755% → 56%
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+26
44.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Landon Wolf for 26 yds to the OKSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
41.6%
Spencer Sanders run for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 43Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 12
OWN 43
-1
43.2%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dezmon Jackson for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 42Similar
Q4 11:50
3RD & 13
OWN 42
+8
45.1%
Spencer Sanders run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:08
4TH & 5
50
0
44.0%
Tom Hutton punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 27FUMBLE
3 plays · 29 yds · 0:5146% → 51%
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
46.2%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Mikel BarkleySimilar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+26
46.0%
Max Duggan run for 26 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
51.2%
Darwin Barlow run for 3 yds to the TCU 44 Darwin Barlow fumbled, forced by Amen Ogbongbemiga, recovered by OKSt Amen OgbongbemigaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0461% → 58%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
39.0%
Dezmon Jackson run for 3 yds to the TCU 41Similar
Q4 9:37
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+2
39.1%
Dezmon Jackson run for 2 yds to the TCU 39Similar
Q4 9:03
3RD & 5
OPP 39
0
39.7%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Dillon StonerSimilar
Q4 8:56
4TH & 5
OPP 39
0
42.3%
Tom Hutton punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Derius Davis at the TCU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 29TD
4 plays · 90 yds · 0:5247% → 85%
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+13
47.0%
Derius Davis run for 13 yds to the TCU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
47.4%
Max Duggan run for 6 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 4
OWN 29
0
48.6%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Quentin JohnstonSimilar
Q4 7:56
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+71
84.9%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 71 yds for a TD (Max Duggan pass to Quentin Johnston for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 30INT
12 plays · 50 yds · 3:2420% → 22%
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+22
80.1%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 22 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
78.5%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Braydon JohnsonSimilar
Q4 6:59
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+11
78.9%
Spencer Sanders run for 11 yds to the TCU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
76.7%
Dezmon Jackson run for 4 yds to the TCU 22Similar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+2
77.2%
Dezmon Jackson run for 2 yds to the TCU 20Similar
Q4 5:57
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+13
79.5%
Spencer Sanders run for 13 yds to the TCU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-10
77.5%
Jackson, Dezmon rush for no gain to the TCU7, PENALTY OKLAST holding (Wilson, Preston) 10 yards to the TCU17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 17
+15
78.3%
Sanders, Spencer pass incomplete to Martin, Tay, PENALTY TCU pass interference 15 yards to the TCU2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAST.Similar
Q4 5:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-10
77.8%
Sanders, Spencer pass complete to Metcalf, Dayton for 1 yard to the TCU1, PENALTY OKLAST holding (Jackson, Dezmon) 10 yards to the TCU12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
+3
79.3%
Spencer Sanders run for 3 yds to the TCU 9Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
78.4%
Spencer Sanders pass intercepted, touchback. Trevon Moehrig return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 31FUMBLE
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:4091% → 93%
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
91.0%
Emari Demercado run for 2 yds to the TCU 22Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+10
92.8%
Taye Barber run for 10 yds to the TCU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
93.2%
Max Duggan run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 26 Max Duggan fumbled, forced by Amen Ogbongbemiga, recovered by OKSt Amen Ogbongbemiga , return for 5 yds to the TCU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 32DOWNS
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:0717% → 11%
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
83.1%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Dezmon JacksonSimilar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+1
83.9%
Dezmon Jackson run for 1 yd to the TCU 25Similar
Q4 2:53
3RD & 9
OPP 25
-3
86.1%
Spencer Sanders run for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 28Similar
Q4 2:18
4TH & 12
OPP 28
0
88.7%
Spencer Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 33PUNT
7 plays · -5 yds · 1:4494% → 96%
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
94.3%
TCU Penalty, False Start (Blake Hickey) to the TCU 23Similar
Q4 2:14
1ST & 15
OWN 23
+2
93.9%
Emari Demercado run for 2 yds to the TCU 25Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 13
OWN 25
-1
94.6%
Max Duggan run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 24Similar
Q4 1:20
3RD & 14
OWN 24
-1
95.9%
Derius Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 23Similar
Q4 0:33
4TH & 15
OWN 23
+2
95.7%
Jordy Sandy punt for 54 yds , Dillon Stoner returns for 2 yds to the OKSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 34Uncategorized
4 plays · 26 yds · 0:228% → 11%
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
92.4%
Spencer Sanders run for 6 yds to the OKSt 31Similar
Q4 0:19
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
90.9%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Landon WolfSimilar
Q4 0:12
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+20
91.7%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 20 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
89.2%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Landon WolfSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:56
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 71 yds for a TD (Max Duggan pass to Quentin Johnston for Two-Point Conversion)
+36.3
TD · Q3 0:07
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 55 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-20.1
TD · Q3 6:10
Zach Evans run for 1 yd for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)
+15.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com