2020 · Week 14 · Dec 5, 2020 · Jones AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · TTU
modelTTU aheadKU aheadconfidence bandkey playTTU scoreKU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:58 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kans 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 0:00: Jacob Borcila 42 yd FG GOOD — KU win probability +1.5 pts (now 10%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 0:27: Jacob Borcila 29 yd FG GOOD — KU win probability +4.3 pts (now 12%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 10:46: Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for 12 yds for a TD (Jacob Borcila KICK) — KU win probability +27.5 pts (now 41%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- FG · Q4 5:36: Jonathan Garibay 36 yd FG GOOD — TTU win probability +5.9 pts (now 81%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 3:44: Tahj Brooks run for 4 yds to the Kans 29 — TTU win probability +9.6 pts (now 88%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TTU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10KU made the numbers' call on 14 of 14
- Q1 15:00KU 4th & 11 at KU 17, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snapGo for it5.2%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.3%average punt
- Q1 11:51KU 4th & 9 at KU 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 5.8% before the snapGo for it5.8%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.9%average punt
- Q1 8:56TTU 4th & 7 at KU 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.5% before the snapGo for it93.4%−<0.137% to convertField goalTheir call93.5%58% to makePunt93.1%−0.3average punt
- Q1 8:56KU 4th & 5 at TTU 49, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.3% before the snapGo for it6.3%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.3%average punt
- Q1 3:52KU 4th & 12 at KU 38, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snapGo for it6.7%−0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.9%average punt
- Q2 11:23TTU 4th & 5 at KU 22, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.0% before the snapGo for it91.8%−<0.140% to convertField goalTheir call91.9%72% to makePunt90.2%−1.6average punt
- Q2 11:23KU 4th & 1 at TTU 32, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call8.4%71% to convertField goal7.7%−0.751% to makePunt7.5%−0.9average punt
- Q2 7:24KU 4th & 10 at KU 39, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snapGo for it7.7%−0.329% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.0%average punt
- Q2 4:53TTU 4th & 3 at KU 23, up 10Close callKicked a field goal · 91.3% before the snapGo for it91.2%52% to convertField goalTheir call91.0%−0.270% to makePunt89.3%−2.0average punt
- Q2 0:00KU 4th & 23 at TTU 24, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.2% before the snapGo for it8.0%−1.17% to convertField goalTheir call9.1%68% to makePunt6.8%−2.3average punt
- Q3 15:00TTU 4th & 8 at TTU 27, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.6% before the snapGo for it88.5%−0.733% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.2%average punt
- Q3 14:05KU 4th & 14 at KU 15, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.2% before the snapGo for it9.3%−1.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.6%average punt
- Q3 8:55TTU 4th & 1 at KU 6, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call89.1%69% to convertField goal87.8%−1.491% to makePunt84.0%−5.1average punt
- Q3 6:59TTU 4th & 3 at KU 3, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 89.2% before the snapGo for it89.6%44% to convertField goalTheir call88.7%−0.893% to makePunt84.2%−5.4average punt
- Q3 6:59KU 4th & 1 at KU 34, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt9.3%−0.8average punt
- Q3 6:59KU 4th & 2 at TTU 40, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.3%57% to convertField goal8.6%−1.634% to makePunt8.9%−1.4average punt
- Q3 0:27KU 4th & 5 at TTU 11, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.2% before the snapGo for it9.6%−0.137% to convertField goalTheir call9.7%87% to makePunt3.7%−5.9average punt
- Q4 15:00TTU 4th & 1 at TTU 34, up 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 89.4% before the snapGo for it90.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.3%−1.3average punt
- Q4 14:46KU 4th & 6 at KU 15, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.3% before the snapGo for it11.5%−1.039% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.5%average punt
- Q4 10:46TTU 4th & 5 at KU 37, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call70.2%42% to convertField goal67.6%−2.640% to makePunt67.4%−2.8average punt
- Q4 5:36TTU 4th & 7 at KU 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.5% before the snapGo for it61.5%−1.735% to convertField goalTheir call63.2%79% to makePunt43.6%−19.6average punt
- Q4 5:36KU 4th & 1 at KU 34, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call26.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt22.7%−3.5average punt
- Q4 1:58TTU 4th & 4 at KU 27, up 3Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 87.9% before the snapGo for it86.4%48% to convertField goalTheir call85.1%−1.362% to makePunt70.1%−16.3average punt
- Q4 1:58KU 4th & 4 at KU 34, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call17.6%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt13.6%−4.0average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
- Q4 10:46KU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call30.3%−0.197% to makeGo for two30.4%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:005% → 5%
TTUDrive 2INT6 plays · 12 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 13:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
94.9%
Alan Bowman pass intercepted, touchback. Karon Prunty return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 11:51
4TH & 9
OWN 21
+1
94.6%
Reis Vernon punt for 44 yds , Chux Nwabuko III returns for 1 yd to the TexTc 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 4FG8 plays · 35 yds · 1:4794% → 94%
Q1 10:43
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+14
94.4%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Xavier White for 14 yds to the Kans 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
94.4%
Alan Bowman pass complete to SaRodorick Thompson for 8 yds to the Kans 39Similar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+3
94.4%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Caden Leggett for 3 yds to the Kans 29Similar
Q1 10:43
3RD & 7
OPP 29
0
94.4%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Xavier White, broken up by Nick ChannelSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 5PUNT10 plays · 26 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 8:56
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
94.2%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Daniel Hishaw Jr. for 5 yds to the Kans 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:56
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+2
94.1%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 2 yds to the Kans 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:56
2ND & 18
OWN 38
+10
94.2%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Luke Grimm for 10 yds to the Kans 48Similar
Q1 8:56
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+3
94.2%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 3 yds to the TexTc 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 6TD4 plays · 82 yds · 0:4994% → 94%
Q1 4:41
3RD & 9
OWN 19
+11
93.4%
Bowman, Alan pass incomplete to Ezukanma, Erik (Prunty, Karon), PENALTY KU pass interference (Prunty, Karon) 11 yards to the TTU30, 1ST DOWN TTU, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 7PUNT9 plays · 15 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
93.6%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 7 yds to the Kans 30Similar
Q1 3:52
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+13
93.6%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Tristan Golightly for 13 yds to the Kans 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:52
3RD & 11
OWN 39
-1
93.6%
Miles Kendrick sacked by Colin Schooler and Krishon Merriweather for a loss of 1 yard to the Kans 38Similar
Q1 3:52
4TH & 12
OWN 38
+37
93.7%
Reis Vernon punt for 37 yds , Chux Nwabuko III returns for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 8MISSED FG12 plays · 54 yds · 3:4793% → 93%
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
93.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Xavier White for 5 yds to the TexTc 29Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+25
93.4%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 10 yds to the TEXASTECH 41 for a 1ST down KANSAS Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Steven Parker) to the Kans 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+1
93.4%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Caden Leggett for 1 yd to the Kans 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 17
OPP 34
0
93.3%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Tahj Brooks for no gain to the Kans 34Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-15
93.4%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the Kans 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 9DOWNS7 plays · 45 yds · 0:007% → 8%
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
91.8%
Kendrick,Miles pass incomplete to Grimm, Luke, PENALTY KU ineligible downfield on pass off-setting, PENALTY TTU holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+18
92.3%
Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for 3 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST down TEXAS TECH Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Philip Blidi) to the TexTc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+8
92.1%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Daniel Hishaw Jr. for 8 yds to the TexTc 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 10FUMBLE4 plays · 28 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q2 8:43
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+3
92.3%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 3 yds to the Kans 39 SaRodorick Thompson fumbled, forced by Nate Betts, recovered by Kans Marcus HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-6
91.7%
Miles Kendrick sacked by Krishon Merriweather for a loss of 6 yards to the Kans 33Similar
Q2 7:24
3RD & 16
OWN 33
+6
92.4%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Amauri Pesek-Hickson for 6 yds to the Kans 39Similar
Q2 7:24
4TH & 10
OWN 39
+10
92.4%
Reis Vernon punt for 34 yds , Chux Nwabuko III returns for 10 yds to the TexTc 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 12MISSED FG5 plays · 40 yds · 1:0492% → 92%
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+33
92.1%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Myles Price for 33 yds to the Kans 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 13FG18 plays · 53 yds · 4:538% → 10%
Q2 4:53
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+5
91.5%
Miles Kendrick run for 5 yds to the Kans 38 Miles Kendrick fumbled, forced by Eric Monroe, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+12
91.2%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Luke Grimm for 12 yds to the TexTc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+8
90.9%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Luke Grimm for 8 yds to the TexTc 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+8
90.6%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Daniel Hishaw Jr. for 8 yds to the TexTc 26Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 15
OPP 16
-8
90.3%
Miles Kendrick sacked by Tony Bradford Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the TexTc 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 27
-2
88.9%
Austin McNamara punt for 52 yds , Kwamie Lassiter II returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Kans 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 15PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
Q3 14:05
3RD & 8
OWN 21
-6
89.7%
Miles Kendrick sacked by Colin Schooler for a loss of 6 yards to the Kans 15 KANSAS Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 14:05
4TH & 14
OWN 15
+24
90.1%
Reis Vernon punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Chux Nwabuko III at the TEXASTECH 46 KANSAS Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the Kans 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 16FG16 plays · 36 yds · 5:1790% → 92%
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-6
90.1%
Xavier White run for 4 yds to the Kans 35 TEXAS TECH Penalty, Offensive holding (Myles Price) to the Kans 45Similar
Q3 12:16
1ST & 16
OPP 45
+3
89.6%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 3 yds to the Kans 42Similar
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-15
90.2%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Xavier White) to the Kans 27Similar
Q3 8:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
91.4%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Ja'Lynn Polk, broken up by Karon PruntySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 17DOWNS10 plays · 32 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q3 6:59
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
91.6%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Luke Grimm for 3 yds to the Kans 34Similar
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
91.3%
Hishaw, Daniel rush for no gain to the KU37 (Monroe, Eric), PENALTY TTU face mask (Monroe, Eric) 15 yards to the TTU48, 1ST DOWN KU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:59
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+5
90.5%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Luke Grimm for 5 yds to the TexTc 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 18FUMBLE2 plays · 18 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
KUDrive 19FG5 plays · 5 yds · 1:4411% → 12%
TTUDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:2791% → 91%
KUDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 22FUMBLE2 plays · 15 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q4 13:17
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+19
91.9%
Xavier White run for 19 yds to the TexTc 44 Xavier White fumbled, forced by Marcus Harris, recovered by Kans Caleb Taylor , return for 15 yds to the TEXASTECH 46 TEXAS TECH Penalty, Defensive holding (Caleb Taylor) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 23TD7 plays · 44 yds · 2:1812% → 41%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 24FG11 plays · 52 yds · 5:1072% → 81%
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-12
75.6%
Alan Bowman sacked by Nick Channel for a loss of 12 yards to the TexTc 46Similar
Q4 10:46
3RD & 16
OPP 48
+11
71.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Erik Ezukanma for 11 yds to the Kans 37Similar
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+10
77.4%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Myles Price for 10 yds to the Kans 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 25DOWNS5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 26MISSED FG5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4688% → 89%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 27DOWNS4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
85.3%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Luke Grimm for 3 yds to the Kans 31Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+3
85.2%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Takulve Williams for 3 yds to the Kans 34Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 4
OWN 34
0
85.6%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for no gain to the Kans 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:46
Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for 12 yds for a TD (Jacob Borcila KICK)
-27.5
KEY PLAY · Q4 3:44
Tahj Brooks run for 4 yds to the Kans 29
+9.6
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+6.8