2020 · Week 14 · Dec 5, 2020 · Jack Trice Stadium
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Win probability · ISU
modelISU aheadWVU aheadconfidence bandkey playISU scoreWVU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:00 · Tyler Sumpter 32 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 5:51: Breece Hall 23 Yd Run (Connor Assalley Kick) — ISU win probability +3.7 pts (now 68%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:17: Brock Purdy 10 Yd Run (Connor Assalley Kick) — ISU win probability +4.6 pts (now 75%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:49: Landen Akers 2 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Connor Assalley Kick) — ISU win probability +11.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:10: Charlie Kolar 16 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Connor Assalley Kick) — ISU win probability +2.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
- FG · Q4 12:00: Tyler Sumpter 32 Yd Field Goal — WVU win probability +0.1 pts (now 0%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ISU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4WVU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
- Q1 10:40WVU 4th & 7 at ISU 38, tiedClose callPunted · 33.7% before the snapGo for it33.7%37% to convertField goal33.7%−0.138% to makePuntTheir call33.7%−0.1average punt
- Q1 6:08ISU 4th & 3 at WVU 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call66.3%52% to convertField goal66.1%−0.260% to makePunt65.0%−1.3average punt
- Q1 3:48WVU 4th & 9 at WVU 9, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.9% before the snapGo for it29.7%−0.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.9%average punt
- Q2 7:56WVU 4th & 17 at ISU 24, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.5% before the snapGo for it20.3%−1.414% to convertField goalTheir call21.7%68% to makePunt17.8%−3.9average punt
- Q2 1:00WVU 4th & 17 at WVU 25, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snapGo for it6.8%−1.713% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.4%average punt
- Q3 12:59ISU 4th & 1 at ISU 31, up 21Close callPunted · 93.3% before the snapGo for it93.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.2%−0.5average punt
- Q3 11:07WVU 4th & 6 at ISU 37, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.8%40% to convertField goal6.1%−0.640% to makePunt6.0%−0.8average punt
- Q3 7:54ISU 4th & 7 at ISU 47, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.0% before the snapGo for it95.1%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.2%average punt
- Q3 4:50WVU 4th & 3 at ISU 27, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.0%52% to convertField goal3.6%−0.462% to makePunt1.1%−2.9average punt
- Q3 1:58WVU 4th & 8 at WVU 34, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q4 12:00WVU 4th & 6 at ISU 14, down 35Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.137% to convertField goalTheir call0.2%84% to makePunt-0.2%−0.4average punt
- Q4 7:07ISU 4th & 5 at WVU 28, up 32Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%41% to convertField goal99.8%−<0.160% to makePunt99.5%−0.3average punt
- Q4 4:03WVU 4th & 14 at ISU 39, down 39Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.119% to convertField goal0.1%36% to makePunt0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 2:46WVU 4th & 9 at ISU 18, down 39Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.130% to convertField goalTheir call0.1%79% to makePunt-0.0%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ISU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 5:51ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.5%97% to makeGo for two68.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:17ISU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call74.9%97% to makeGo for two74.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:49ISU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.9%97% to makeGo for two91.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:10ISU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.1%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:07ISU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:07ISU Touchdown, up 38 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWVUDrive 1PUNT11 plays · 43 yds · 4:0835% → 36%
Q1 14:23
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+9
64.8%
Jarret Doege pass complete to T.J. Simmons for 9 yds to the WVirg 28Similar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+26
64.6%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sean Ryan for 26 yds to the IowSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:26
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+4
64.2%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Isaiah Esdale for 4 yds to the IowSt 33Similar
Q1 10:56
4TH & 2
OPP 33
-5
64.3%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (Leddie Brown) to the IowSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 2TD10 plays · 80 yds · 4:4165% → 68%
Q1 10:00
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+31
64.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Chase Allen for 31 yds to the WVirg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+6
64.8%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 6 yds to the WVirg 28Similar
Q1 6:08
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+5
64.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Chase Allen for 5 yds to the WVirg 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:4733% → 32%
ISUDrive 4TD12 plays · 44 yds · 4:2269% → 75%
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-10
69.0%
Breece Hall run for 5 yds to the WVirg 28 IOWA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Robert Hudson) to the WVirg 43Similar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 20
OPP 43
+17
68.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 17 yds to the WVirg 26Similar
Q1 1:25
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+4
68.9%
Breece Hall run for 4 yds to the WVirg 22 Breece Hall fumbled, recovered by IowSt Breece Hall for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 5MISSED FG18 plays · 49 yds · 6:1028% → 24%
Q2 13:58
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+6
73.0%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Leddie Brown for 6 yds to the WVirg 33Similar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+13
72.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to T.J. Simmons for 13 yds to the WVirg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+9
72.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Leddie Brown for 9 yds to the IowSt 45Similar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+4
72.6%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Isaiah Esdale for 4 yds to the IowSt 37Similar
Q2 10:33
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+9
72.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to T.J. Simmons for 9 yds to the IowSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
72.2%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Isaiah Esdale for 9 yds to the IowSt 19Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-5
73.1%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (Parker Moorer) to the IowSt 22Similar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 15
OPP 22
0
74.0%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Sean Ryan, broken up by Greg Eisworth IISimilar
Q2 8:09
3RD & 15
OPP 19
-2
74.9%
Jarret Doege run for 3 yds to the IowSt 19 WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Jarret Doege) to the IowSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 6TD16 plays · 76 yds · 5:0176% → 91%
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
76.1%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 11 yds to the IowSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
76.3%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Sean Shaw Jr. for 4 yds to the IowSt 39Similar
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
77.6%
Purdy, Brock pass incomplete to Hutchinson, Xavier, PENALTY WESTVIR pass interference (Fortune, Nicktroy) 12 yards to the WESTVIR40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN IOWAST.Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+10
78.0%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 10 yds to the WVirg 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:47
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+20
79.3%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Sean Shaw Jr. for 20 yds to the WVirg 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-7
79.8%
Brock Purdy run for 3 yds to the WVirg 1 IOWA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Sean Shaw Jr.) to the WVirg 11Similar
Q2 3:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
-15
81.1%
Hall, Breece rush for 11 yards to the WESTVIR0, PENALTY IOWAST face mask (Kolar, Charlie) 15 yards to the WESTVIR26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 26
+21
81.2%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 21 yds to the WVirg 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 7PUNT7 plays · -7 yds · 1:3311% → 9%
Q2 1:54
2ND & 7
OWN 35
-4
89.5%
Jarret Doege sacked by JaQuan Bailey for a loss of 4 yards to the WVirg 31Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 11
OWN 31
-6
91.2%
Jarret Doege sacked by Will McDonald IV for a loss of 6 yards to the WVirg 25Similar
Q2 1:00
4TH & 17
OWN 25
-3
91.0%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 49 yds , Tarique Milton returns for a loss of 3 yards to the IowSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 8END OF HALF2 plays · 8 yds · 0:4293% → 93%
ISUDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5093% → 93%
WVUDrive 10DOWNS6 plays · 26 yds · 1:468% → 7%
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
92.0%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sean Ryan for 7 yds to the WVirg 49Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+10
91.8%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sean Ryan for 10 yds to the IowSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:34
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+4
92.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Leddie Brown for 4 yds to the IowSt 37Similar
Q3 11:07
4TH & 6
OPP 37
+5
93.2%
Jarret Doege pass complete to T.J. Simmons for 5 yds to the IowSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 11PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 3:0195% → 95%
WVUDrive 12DOWNS9 plays · 38 yds · 2:595% → 4%
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
94.6%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Leddie Brown for a loss of 1 yard to the WVirg 34Similar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+13
95.0%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sean Ryan for 13 yds to the WVirg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-6
95.0%
Jarret Doege sacked by Will McDonald IV for a loss of 6 yards to the WVirg 41Similar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 16
OWN 41
+25
95.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 25 yds to the IowSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 13TD5 plays · 73 yds · 1:3196% → 100%
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+28
96.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 13 yds to the WVirg 40 for a 1ST down WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Tony Fields II) to the WVirg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 12
OPP 16
+16
99.7%
Charlie Kolar 16 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Connor Assalley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:550% → 0%
Q3 1:58
4TH & 8
OWN 34
0
99.7%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Tarique Milton at the IowSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 15TD4 plays · 78 yds · 1:45100% → 100%
WVUDrive 16FG11 plays · 67 yds · 3:000% → 0%
Q4 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
99.8%
Brown, Leddie rush for 6 yards to the IOWAST46, PENALTY IOWAST substitution infraction 5 yards to the IOWAST47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 5
OPP 47
+15
99.8%
Doege, Jarret pass incomplete to Smith, Reese, PENALTY IOWAST pass interference (White IV, Lawrence) 15 yards to the IOWAST32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WESTVIR.Similar
Q4 12:39
2ND & 11
OPP 19
+5
99.8%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Isaiah Esdale for 5 yds to the IowSt 14Similar
Q4 12:05
3RD & 6
OPP 14
0
99.8%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Winston Wright Jr., broken up by Lawrence White IVSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 17TD11 plays · 73 yds · 4:42100% → 100%
Q4 10:28
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+6
99.8%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 6 yds to the IowSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:22
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+15
99.9%
Purdy, Brock pass incomplete to Allen, Chase, PENALTY WESTVIR pass interference (Chandler-Semedo, Josh) 15 yards to the WESTVIR45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN IOWAST.Similar
Q4 8:04
2ND & 14
OPP 37
0
99.9%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Sean Shaw Jr., broken up by Tykee SmithSimilar
Q4 7:53
3RD & 14
OPP 37
+9
99.9%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 9 yds to the WVirg 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 18FG14 plays · 49 yds · 4:060% → 0%
Q4 6:39
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+10
99.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 10 yds to the WVirg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+23
99.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sean Ryan for 23 yds to the IowSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:11
3RD & 14
OPP 39
0
99.9%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Sean Ryan, broken up by Tayvonn KyleSimilar
Q4 4:03
4TH & 14
OPP 39
+20
99.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Isaiah Esdale for 20 yds to the IowSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 19Uncategorized7 plays · 24 yds · 2:11100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:49
Landen Akers 2 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Connor Assalley Kick)
+11.1
TD · Q2 14:17
Brock Purdy 10 Yd Run (Connor Assalley Kick)
+4.6
TD · Q1 5:51
Breece Hall 23 Yd Run (Connor Assalley Kick)
+3.7