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Win probability · KU
modelKU aheadTCU aheadconfidence bandkey playKU scoreTCU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:29 · Reis Vernon punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Kans 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 10:50: Griffin Kell 39 yd FG GOOD — KU win probability +1.3 pts (now 8%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 6:00: Max Duggan pass complete to Carter Ware for 26 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK) — TCU win probability +1.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 1:22: Jalon Daniels pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 48 yds for a TD Borcila,Jacob kick attempt good, PENALTY TCU offside defense (Ceasar, C.J.) 2 yards to the TCU1, NO PLAY. (Two-Point Conversion failed) — KU win probability +1.2 pts (now 7%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:56: Max Duggan pass complete to Pro Wells for 24 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK) — TCU win probability +3.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:20: Miles Kendrick pass complete to Luke Grimm for 14 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — TCU win probability +1.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
KU made the numbers' call on 11 of 11TCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 8
- Q1 10:50TCU 4th & 6 at KU 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.1% before the snapGo for it90.1%−<0.138% to convertField goalTheir call90.1%74% to makePunt89.7%−0.4average punt
- Q1 10:44KU 4th & 7 at KU 25, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snapGo for it9.7%−0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.8%average punt
- Q1 9:05KU 4th & 9 at KU 28, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snapGo for it9.7%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.8%average punt
- Q2 14:50TCU 4th & 6 at TCU 45, up 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.2% before the snapGo for it92.2%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.3%average punt
- Q2 13:57KU 4th & 11 at KU 39, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.5% before the snapGo for it8.4%−0.326% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.7%average punt
- Q2 8:51KU 4th & 6 at TCU 40, down 25Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.9%40% to convertField goal3.6%−0.334% to makePunt3.7%−0.2average punt
- Q2 7:00TCU 4th & 3 at TCU 47, up 25Close callPunted · 96.5% before the snapGo for it96.6%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.4%−0.2average punt
- Q2 5:29KU 4th & 18 at KU 7, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snapGo for it1.9%−1.111% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.9%average punt
- Q2 3:35TCU 4th & 3 at KU 38, up 25Close callPunted · 96.9% before the snapGo for it96.9%53% to convertField goal96.6%−0.338% to makePuntTheir call96.6%−0.4average punt
- Q2 2:05KU 4th & 7 at KU 16, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snapGo for it2.0%−0.535% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.5%average punt
- Q3 15:00KU 4th & 6 at KU 29, down 26Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it2.0%−0.339% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.3%average punt
- Q3 12:58TCU 4th & 2 at KU 47, up 26Close callPunted · 97.6% before the snapGo for it97.7%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.4%−0.3average punt
- Q3 11:15KU 4th & 5 at KU 14, down 26Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.2%−0.340% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.5%average punt
- Q4 15:00TCU 4th & 1 at TCU 34, up 25Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.2%−0.2average punt
- Q4 14:45KU 4th & 12 at KU 7, down 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.120% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q4 13:12TCU 4th & 9 at KU 39, up 32Close callPunted · 99.5% before the snapGo for it99.5%32% to convertField goal99.5%−<0.136% to makePuntTheir call99.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 4:25KU 4th & 10 at TCU 29, down 39Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.129% to convertField goalTheir call0.2%58% to makePunt0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 4:25TCU 4th & 8 at TCU 30, up 36Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q4 0:36KU 4th & 3 at KU 42, down 36Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KU made the numbers' call on 0 of 3TCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 9:11TCU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.2%97% to makeGo for two90.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:00TCU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.0%97% to makeGo for two91.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:22KU Touchdown, down 18 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick8.2%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call8.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:56TCU Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.8%97% to makeGo for two93.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:06TCU Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.7%97% to makeGo for two97.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:20KU Touchdown, down 26 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick2.5%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call2.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:27TCU Touchdown, up 32 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:26KU Touchdown, down 27 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick1.3%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call1.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:45TCU Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTCUDrive 1FG10 plays · 53 yds · 4:1094% → 92%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:008% → 8%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 3TD4 plays · 45 yds · 0:4292% → 92%
Q1 9:11
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+46
7.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to Pro Wells for 46 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:008% → 8%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 5TD4 plays · 74 yds · 1:1392% → 93%
KUDrive 6PUNT RETURN TD5 plays · -24 yds · 2:057% → 6%
KUDrive 7TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:276% → 8%
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
6.0%
Jalon Daniels sacked by Ochaun Mathis for a loss of 3 yards to the Kans 22Similar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+5
6.0%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 5 yds to the Kans 27Similar
Q1 3:49
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
6.0%
Daniels, Jalon pass intercepted by Ceasar, C.J. at the KU40, Ceasar, C.J. return to the KU40, PENALTY TCU holding (Ceasar, C.J.) 10 yards to the KU37, 1ST DOWN KU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
6.1%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for no gain to the Kans 37Similar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+15
6.1%
Daniels, Jalon pass incomplete to Naylor,Ezra, PENALTY TCU pass interference (Ceasar, C.J.) 15 yards to the TCU48, 1ST DOWN KU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
7.2%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 48 yds for a TD Borcila,Jacob kick attempt good, PENALTY TCU offside defense (Ceasar, C.J.) 2 yards to the TCU1, NO PLAY. (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 8PUNT5 plays · -24 yds · 1:217% → 7%
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
7.2%
TEAM run for no gain to the Kans 23 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Kans Amauri Pesek-HicksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
KUDrive 10PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
7.0%
Amauri Pesek-Hickson run for 19 yds to the Kans 40 KANSAS Penalty, illegal block (Kwamie Lassiter II) to the Kans 25Similar
Q2 13:57
1ST & 6
OWN 25
+15
7.1%
Daniels, Jalon pass incomplete to Grimm, Luke, PENALTY TCU pass interference (Moehrig, Trevon) 15 yards to the KU40, 1ST DOWN KU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+4
7.1%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Amauri Pesek-Hickson for 4 yds to the Kans 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 11TD7 plays · 80 yds · 3:2094% → 97%
Q2 8:56
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+24
3.0%
Max Duggan pass complete to Pro Wells for 24 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 12DOWNS8 plays · 34 yds · 0:003% → 3%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 7:00
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
3.1%
Jordy Sandy punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Kwamie Lassiter II at the Kans 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 14PUNT4 plays · -8 yds · 0:003% → 3%
TCUDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 3:35
4TH & 3
OPP 38
0
2.8%
Jordy Sandy punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Kwamie Lassiter II at the Kans 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:002% → 2%
TCUDrive 17TD1 play · 58 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 18TD5 plays · 75 yds · 0:463% → 2%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+37
2.9%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Luke Grimm for 37 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
3.3%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 11 yds to the TCU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+13
3.4%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 13 yds to the TCU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
2.3%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Luke Grimm for 14 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19END OF HALF2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 12:58
4TH & 2
OPP 47
0
2.3%
Jordy Sandy punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Kwamie Lassiter II at the Kans 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 22PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:002% → 2%
TCUDrive 23TD12 plays · 53 yds · 3:4099% → 99%
Q3 9:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
1.2%
Barlow, Darwin rush for no gain to the KU2 (Harris,Marcus), PENALTY KU offside defense (Parker,Steven) 1 yards to the KU1, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 24TD15 plays · 75 yds · 4:011% → 1%
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
1.1%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 5 yds to the Kans 30Similar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+11
1.0%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 11 yds to the Kans 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+15
1.1%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 15 yds to the Kans 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+26
1.2%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Ezra Naylor II for 26 yds to the TCU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
1.3%
Miles Kendrick pass incomplete to Andrew Parchment, broken up by Garret WallowSimilar
Q3 1:26
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+21
0.7%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Luke Grimm for 21 yds for a TD (Miles Kendrick pass to Takulve Williams for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 25PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2699% → 99%
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
0.6%
Jordy Sandy punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Kwamie Lassiter II at the Kans 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 26INT TD1 play · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-30
0.4%
Miles Kendrick pass intercepted for a TD C.J. Ceasar II return for 30 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 27PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:45
4TH & 12
OWN 7
0
0.4%
Reis Vernon punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Derius Davis at the TCU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 28PUNT6 plays · 12 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
0.4%
Matthew Downing pass complete to Derius Davis for 8 yds to the Kans 43Similar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+2
0.3%
Matthew Downing pass complete to Derius Davis for 2 yds to the Kans 39Similar
Q4 13:12
4TH & 9
OPP 39
+32
0.4%
Jordy Sandy punt for 32 yds, downed at the Kans 7 KANSAS Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 29FUMBLE TD3 plays · -5 yds · 0:420% → 0%
Q4 10:02
3RD & 8
OWN 9
+2
0.2%
Miles Kendrick sacked by Ochaun Mathis for a loss of 7 yards Miles Kendrick fumbled, recovered by TCU Dee Winters , return for 0 yards , return for 2 yds (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 30FG13 plays · 46 yds · 5:370% → 0%
TCUDrive 31PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
KUDrive 32PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:310% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 33END OF GAME1 play · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:56
Max Duggan pass complete to Pro Wells for 24 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)
-3.1
FG · Q1 10:50
Griffin Kell 39 yd FG GOOD
+1.3
TD · Q1 6:00
Max Duggan pass complete to Carter Ware for 26 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)
-1.2