2020 · Week 10 · Nov 7, 2020 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadWVU aheadconfidence bandkey playTEX scoreWVU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:44 · Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Ali Jennings
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginScore differential
This game in five plays
- FG · Q3 10:11: Casey Legg 25 yd FG GOOD — WVU win probability +5.3 pts (now 42%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:31: Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jake Smith for 33 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK) — TEX win probability +12.6 pts (now 80%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
- FG · Q3 0:22: Casey Legg 34 yd FG GOOD — WVU win probability +3.6 pts (now 30%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 5:30: Timeout WEST VIRGINIA, clock 05:30 — TEX win probability +6.8 pts (now 72%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 4:48: Timeout WEST VIRGINIA, clock 04:48 — TEX win probability +8.2 pts (now 85%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TEX made the numbers' call on 7 of 9WVU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
- Q1 7:26TEX 4th & 4 at WVU 43, tiedClose callPunted · 67.3% before the snapGo for it67.4%48% to convertField goal67.1%−0.328% to makePuntTheir call67.2%−0.1average punt
- Q1 5:56WVU 4th & 4 at WVU 9, tiedClose callPunted · 32.5% before the snapGo for it32.6%46% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 5:22TEX 4th & 1 at WVU 39, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call67.1%70% to convertField goal66.4%−0.736% to makePunt66.5%−0.6average punt
- Q1 2:19WVU 4th & 11 at WVU 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 33.8% before the snapGo for it33.7%−0.326% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.0%average punt
- Q2 14:55TEX 4th & 4 at WVU 17, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 66.7% before the snapGo for it66.6%47% to convertField goalTheir call66.5%−<0.180% to makePunt64.5%−2.0average punt
- Q2 13:44WVU 4th & 3 at WVU 32, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snapGo for it32.2%−0.252% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.4%average punt
- Q2 11:31TEX 4th & 8 at TEX 36, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.9% before the snapGo for it65.7%−0.534% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.2%average punt
- Q2 10:17WVU 4th & 10 at WVU 17, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.3% before the snapGo for it30.4%−0.828% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.2%average punt
- Q2 8:51TEX 4th & 8 at TEX 49, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.3% before the snapGo for it66.0%−0.334% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.3%average punt
- Q2 2:43WVU 4th & 5 at TEX 46, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call33.7%41% to convertField goal32.4%−1.323% to makePunt33.2%−0.6average punt
- Q2 0:07TEX 4th & 7 at WVU 30, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.5% before the snapGo for it66.5%−1.237% to convertField goalTheir call67.7%56% to makePunt65.7%−2.0average punt
- Q3 10:11WVU 4th & 2 at TEX 9, down 3Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 35.1% before the snapGo for it34.8%54% to convertField goalTheir call33.3%−1.589% to makePunt24.4%−10.4average punt
- Q3 6:08WVU 4th & 5 at WVU 42, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.4% before the snapGo for it24.6%−0.741% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.3%average punt
- Q3 4:42TEX 4th & 7 at TEX 22, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.0% before the snapGo for it76.3%−1.935% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call78.3%average punt
- Q3 0:22WVU 4th & 17 at TEX 17, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.9% before the snapGo for it16.5%−3.913% to convertField goalTheir call20.5%80% to makePunt9.9%−10.5average punt
- Q4 13:48TEX 4th & 11 at TEX 36, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.4% before the snapGo for it68.8%−3.826% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.6%average punt
- Q4 11:24WVU 4th & 1 at TEX 16, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call33.2%71% to convertField goal29.3%−3.881% to makePunt17.1%−16.0average punt
- Q4 9:19TEX 4th & 10 at TEX 36, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.7% before the snapGo for it67.7%−3.429% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.1%average punt
- Q4 4:44WVU 4th & 1 at TEX 8, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call31.3%70% to convertField goal30.4%−0.990% to makePunt12.3%−19.0average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 2 of 2WVU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 12:35TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.5%97% to makeGo for two68.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:58WVU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call32.9%97% to makeGo for two32.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:31TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call74.1%97% to makeGo for two73.9%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTEXDrive 1TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:0569% → 70%
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
68.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Bijan Robinson for 3 yds to the WVirg 18Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+11
68.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Brennan Eagles for 11 yds to the WVirg 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
69.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Brennan Eagles for 7 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 2TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2231% → 33%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
69.2%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 4 yds to the WVirg 29Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
69.2%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 9 yds to the WVirg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+9
69.3%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sean Ryan for 9 yds to the WVirg 47Similar
Q1 9:17
3RD & 9
50
+38
69.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 38 yds to the Texas 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 39 yds · 1:0468% → 68%
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+33
68.0%
Bijan Robinson run for 18 yds to the WVirg 36 for a 1ST down WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the WVirg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0933% → 32%
TEXDrive 5DOWNS4 plays · 9 yds · 0:2368% → 68%
Q1 5:30
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+6
68.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Brenden Schooler for 6 yds to the WVirg 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 6PUNT8 plays · 9 yds · 2:4833% → 34%
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
66.6%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Alec Sinkfield for no gain to the WVirg 39Similar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+10
66.6%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Isaiah Esdale for 10 yds to the WVirg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:19
4TH & 11
OWN 48
-2
66.5%
Kolton McGhee punt for 41 yds , D'Shawn Jamison returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 7FG11 plays · 74 yds · 2:0466% → 68%
Q1 1:45
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+12
66.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jake Smith for 12 yds to the Texas 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
67.5%
Ehlinger, Sam pass incomplete to Eagles, Brennan, PENALTY WESTVIR pass interference 15 yards to the WESTVIR44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXAS.Similar
Q1 0:43
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+21
67.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Tarik Black for 21 yds to the WVirg 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0533% → 32%
TEXDrive 9FUMBLE7 plays · 17 yds · 2:0767% → 66%
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
67.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Roschon Johnson for 8 yds to the Texas 27Similar
Q2 11:31
4TH & 8
OWN 36
+46
66.0%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 46 yds , Alec Sinkfield returns for a loss of 1 yard to the WVirg 17 Alec Sinkfield fumbled, recovered by WVirg Alec SinkfieldSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:1433% → 31%
Q2 11:06
2ND & 15
OWN 12
0
67.6%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for no gain to the WVirg 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 11PUNT6 plays · 2 yds · 1:2069% → 67%
WVUDrive 12Uncategorized14 plays · 52 yds · 5:5733% → 35%
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+5
66.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Leddie Brown for 5 yds to the WVirg 7Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 9
OWN 15
-6
67.1%
Jarret Doege sacked by Moro Ojomo for a loss of 6 yards to the WVirg 9Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 15
OWN 9
+28
68.0%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Isaiah Esdale for 28 yds to the WVirg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+21
65.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Alec Sinkfield for 6 yds to the Texas 43 for a 1ST down TEXAS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Texas 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
63.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Isaiah Esdale for 4 yds to the Texas 38Similar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+3
63.3%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Ali Jennings for 3 yds to the Texas 35Similar
Q2 3:24
3RD & 3
OPP 35
-2
63.3%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Leddie Brown for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 37Similar
Q2 2:43
4TH & 5
OPP 46
-14
65.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Jarret Doege for a loss of 9 yards to the WVirg 46 WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Jarret Doege) to the WVirg 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 13MISSED FG11 plays · 19 yds · 2:2370% → 69%
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
70.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Roschon Johnson for 5 yds to the WVirg 44Similar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-10
71.5%
Ehlinger, Sam pass incomplete, PENALTY TEXAS holding 10 yards to the WESTVIR43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 21
OPP 44
+14
68.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jake Smith for 14 yds to the WVirg 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 14END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 15FG12 plays · 66 yds · 4:3433% → 42%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
67.0%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sean Ryan for 8 yds to the WVirg 33Similar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
65.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sean Ryan for 4 yds to the WVirg 42Similar
Q3 13:17
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+10
64.2%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 10 yds to the Texas 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
63.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to T.J. Simmons for 10 yds to the Texas 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+18
62.1%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 18 yds to the Texas 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 16TD8 plays · 65 yds · 2:2463% → 80%
Q3 8:55
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+17
63.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Brennan Eagles for 17 yds to the WVirg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
66.4%
Bijan Robinson run for 11 yds to the WVirg 32 Bijan Robinson fumbled, forced by Alonzo Addae, recovered by Texas Joshua Moore for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:31
3RD & 11
OPP 33
+33
79.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jake Smith for 33 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 17PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 1:1625% → 24%
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
74.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sean Ryan for 12 yds to the WVirg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 1
OWN 46
-4
72.7%
Leddie Brown run for a loss of 4 yards to the WVirg 42 Leddie Brown fumbled, recovered by WVirgSimilar
Q3 6:08
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
75.6%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 39 yds , D'Shawn Jamison returns for no gain to the Texas 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1379% → 77%
WVUDrive 19FG8 plays · 31 yds · 3:5827% → 30%
Q3 3:52
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+11
72.6%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sam James for 11 yds to the Texas 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
71.0%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Isaiah Esdale for 6 yds to the Texas 27Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+4
70.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sam James for 4 yds to the Texas 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+14
70.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Ali Jennings for 14 yds to the Texas 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-9
74.1%
Jarret Doege sacked by DeMarvion Overshown for a loss of 9 yards to the Texas 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 20PUNT8 plays · 11 yds · 1:1472% → 70%
WVUDrive 21DOWNS7 plays · 59 yds · 2:1431% → 30%
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
69.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 6 yds to the WVirg 31Similar
Q4 13:01
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+44
64.0%
Jarret Doege pass complete to T.J. Simmons for 29 yds to the TEXAS 40 for a 1ST down TEXAS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Texas 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
62.3%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 6 yds to the Texas 19Similar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+3
62.2%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sean Ryan for 3 yds to the Texas 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 22PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 1:5275% → 73%
Q4 9:19
4TH & 10
OWN 36
+6
72.8%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 38 yds , Alec Sinkfield returns for 6 yds to the WVirg 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 23DOWNS13 plays · 60 yds · 4:3028% → 15%
Q4 8:59
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+29
72.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to T.J. Simmons for 29 yds to the Texas 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
67.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 12 yds to the Texas 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
2ND & 12
OPP 29
+9
65.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Isaiah Esdale for 9 yds to the Texas 20Similar
Q4 6:19
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+3
67.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Isaiah Esdale for 3 yds to the Texas 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:10
3RD & 8
OPP 15
+7
76.4%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Leddie Brown for 7 yds to the Texas 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 24END OF 4TH QUARTER8 plays · 49 yds · 4:0086% → 96%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:31
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jake Smith for 33 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)
+12.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 4:48
Timeout WEST VIRGINIA, clock 04:48
+8.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 5:30
Timeout WEST VIRGINIA, clock 05:30
+6.8