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Win probability · OU
modelOU aheadKU aheadconfidence bandkey playOU scoreKU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:07 · Reis Vernon punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Okla 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 1:26: Rhamondre Stevenson 13 Yd Run (Gabe Brkic Kick) — OU win probability +0.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:13: Spencer Rattler 2 Yd Run (Gabe Brkic Kick) — OU win probability +1.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:26: T.J. Pledger 4 Yd Run (Gabe Brkic Kick) — OU win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:00: Jacob Borcila 32 Yd Field Goal — KU win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5KU made the numbers' call on 12 of 14
- Q1 11:07KU 4th & 19 at KU 16, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snapGo for it1.6%−0.210% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.8%average punt
- Q1 5:46KU 4th & 16 at KU 18, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snapGo for it2.1%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.3%average punt
- Q1 4:25OU 4th & 1 at midfield, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.6%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt97.4%−0.2average punt
- Q2 14:23KU 4th & 21 at midfield, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snapGo for it2.4%−0.29% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.6%average punt
- Q2 13:33OU 4th & 10 at OU 40, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.5% before the snapGo for it97.5%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.6%average punt
- Q2 11:02KU 4th & 11 at KU 39, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snapGo for it2.7%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.8%average punt
- Q2 6:41KU 4th & 1 at KU 27, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.5%−0.2average punt
- Q2 4:48OU 4th & 18 at KU 24, up 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.5% before the snapGo for it98.2%−0.312% to convertField goalTheir call98.5%68% to makePunt97.8%−0.7average punt
- Q2 3:52KU 4th & 10 at KU 18, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snapGo for it1.3%−0.228% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.5%average punt
- Q2 0:00KU 4th & 6 at OU 14, down 31Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.6%−<0.137% to convertField goalTheir call0.6%84% to makePunt0.2%−0.4average punt
- Q3 11:16OU 4th & 5 at KU 33, up 28Close callKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.7%42% to convertField goalTheir call99.6%−<0.149% to makePunt99.6%−0.1average punt
- Q3 10:16KU 4th & 11 at KU 19, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 4:59KU 4th & 7 at OU 9, down 38Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.130% to convertField goal0.1%89% to makePunt-0.3%−0.5average punt
- Q3 3:06OU 4th & 9 at OU 26, up 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q3 1:01KU 4th & 18 at KU 21, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 13:18KU 4th & 5 at KU 31, down 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 9:25KU 4th & 24 at KU 6, down 52Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.1%−0.16% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 1:53KU 4th & 3 at OU 35, down 59Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%53% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.145% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 0:27KU 4th & 2 at OU 23, down 59Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.157% to convertField goal0.0%70% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q1 12:01OU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.3%97% to makeGo for two98.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:26OU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.7%97% to makeGo for two97.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:13OU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.7%97% to makeGo for two98.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:26OU Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:59OU Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:54OU Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:21OU Touchdown, up 51 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:50OU Touchdown, up 58 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKUDrive 1INT7 plays · 13 yds · 1:381% → 1%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
98.7%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 5 yds to the Kans 31Similar
Q1 14:14
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+8
98.7%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 8 yds to the Kans 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
98.6%
Jalon Daniels pass intercepted Tre Brown return for no gain to the Kans 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 2TD3 plays · 45 yds · 1:0199% → 99%
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
98.6%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Jeremiah Hall for 6 yds to the Kans 39Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+19
98.6%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Rhamondre Stevenson for 19 yds to the Kans 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
98.6%
Austin Stogner 20 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Gabe Brkic Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 3PUNT6 plays · -9 yds · 0:541% → 2%
Q1 11:40
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-4
98.5%
Jalon Daniels sacked by Ronnie Perkins for a loss of 4 yards to the Kans 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 4INT4 plays · 15 yds · 1:4599% → 98%
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
98.5%
Spencer Rattler sacked by Kyron Johnson for a loss of 5 yards to the Okla 31 Spencer Rattler fumbled, forced by Kyron Johnson, recovered by Okla Austin Stogner , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 5INT5 plays · 19 yds · 1:562% → 2%
Q1 7:26
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+6
98.2%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 6 yds to the Okla 46Similar
Q1 6:50
3RD & 5
OPP 46
-37
98.1%
Jalon Daniels pass intercepted Brendan Radley-Hiles return for 37 yds to the Kans 24 Brendan Radley-Hiles fumbled, forced by Luke Grimm, recovered by Kans Earl Bostick Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 6PUNT4 plays · -6 yds · 1:002% → 2%
OUDrive 7TD11 plays · 59 yds · 4:1298% → 98%
Q1 4:32
3RD & 1
50
0
98.0%
Spencer Rattler pass incomplete to Austin Stogner, broken up by Ricky ThomasSimilar
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
97.9%
Rattler, Spencer pass complete to Stoops, Drake for 36 yards to the KANSAS11, PENALTY OKLAHOMA holding (Ealy, Adrian) 10 yards to the OKLAHOMA43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:34
1ST & 20
OWN 43
+16
97.9%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Marvin Mims for 16 yds to the Kans 41Similar
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
97.8%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Theo Wease for 8 yds to the Kans 25Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 2
OPP 25
0
97.7%
Spencer Rattler pass incomplete to Theo Wease, broken up by Karon PruntySimilar
Q1 1:59
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+12
97.7%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Jeremiah Hall for 12 yds to the Kans 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 8PUNT9 plays · 25 yds · 1:552% → 2%
Q1 0:46
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+18
97.9%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 18 yds to the Kans 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+15
97.8%
Daniels, Jalon pass sacked for loss of 11 yards to the KANSAS35 (Grimes, Reggie), PENALTY OKLAHOMA face mask (Grimes, Reggie) 15 yards to the OKLAHOMA39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KANSAS.Similar
Q2 14:38
2ND & 10
50
-11
97.8%
Jalon Daniels sacked by Nik Bonitto for a loss of 11 yards to the 50 yard line KANSAS Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Jalon Daniels) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 13 yds · 0:4298% → 98%
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
97.9%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Rhamondre Stevenson for 13 yds to the Okla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
98.0%
Spencer Rattler pass incomplete to Charleston Rambo, broken up by Elijah JonesSimilar
Q2 13:33
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
97.8%
Reeves Mundschau punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Kans 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 2:242% → 2%
Q2 12:13
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-9
97.6%
Jalon Daniels sacked by Jordan Kelley and Brynden Walker for a loss of 9 yards to the Kans 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 11TD7 plays · 76 yds · 2:4198% → 99%
Q2 10:22
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+33
97.7%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Austin Stogner for 33 yds to the Kans 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
97.7%
Rhamondre Stevenson run for 11 yds to the Kans 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
97.6%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Theo Wease for 13 yds to the Kans 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+10
97.5%
Rattler, Spencer pass incomplete to Haselwood, Jadon, PENALTY KANSAS pass interference (Potter, Gavin) 10 yards to the KANSAS2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAHOMA.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 12DOWNS5 plays · 9 yds · 1:182% → 2%
Q2 7:23
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+3
98.5%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 3 yds to the Kans 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 13FG5 plays · 3 yds · 1:4699% → 99%
Q2 5:24
3RD & 9
OPP 15
-9
98.8%
Tanner Mordecai sacked by Kyron Johnson for a loss of 9 yards to the Kans 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 14PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 0:511% → 1%
Q2 3:52
4TH & 10
OWN 18
+3
98.6%
Reis Vernon punt for 42 yds , Marvin Mims returns for 3 yds to the Okla 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 15TD6 plays · 57 yds · 2:1899% → 100%
KUDrive 16END OF HALF13 plays · 47 yds · 1:110% → 1%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
99.6%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 7 yds to the Kans 46Similar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+13
99.6%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 13 yds to the Okla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+23
99.6%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 23 yds to the Okla 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-4
99.5%
Jalon Daniels sacked by Nik Bonitto for a loss of 4 yards to the Okla 22Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 14
OPP 22
-10
99.6%
Jalon Daniels sacked by Josh Ellison for a loss of 10 yards to the Okla 32Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 24
OPP 32
+13
99.8%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 13 yds to the Okla 19Similar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 11
OPP 19
+5
99.6%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Perrion Winfrey) to the Okla 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 17FG10 plays · 42 yds · 3:37100% → 100%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.7%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Drake Stoops for 12 yds to the Okla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:53
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+14
99.7%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Rhamondre Stevenson for 14 yds to the Kans 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
99.7%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Theo Wease for 3 yds to the Kans 45Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+7
99.7%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Drake Stoops for 7 yds to the Kans 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 5
OPP 33
0
99.8%
Spencer Rattler pass incomplete to Charleston Rambo, broken up by Karon PruntySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 18PUNT6 plays · -1 yds · 0:560% → 0%
Q3 10:16
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
99.8%
Reis Vernon punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Marvin Mims at the Okla 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 19TD5 plays · 53 yds · 1:10100% → 100%
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
99.8%
Spencer Rattler pass incomplete to Theo Wease, broken up by Karon PruntySimilar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+10
99.8%
Rhamondre Stevenson run for 10 yds to the Kans 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+14
99.8%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Rhamondre Stevenson for 14 yds to the Kans 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 20DOWNS10 plays · 67 yds · 3:470% → 0%
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
99.8%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 12 yds to the Kans 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-7
99.8%
Jalon Daniels sacked by Ronnie Perkins for a loss of 7 yards to the Okla 30Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 17
OPP 30
+7
99.8%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 7 yds to the Okla 23Similar
Q3 4:59
4TH & 7
OPP 9
-6
99.8%
Jalon Daniels sacked by Nik Bonitto for a loss of 6 yards to the Okla 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 11 yds · 1:46100% → 100%
KUDrive 22PUNT6 plays · -8 yds · 2:050% → 0%
Q3 2:57
1ST & 15
OWN 24
-11
99.9%
Jalon Daniels sacked by Marcus Stripling for a loss of 11 yards to the Kans 13Similar
Q3 1:32
3RD & 23
OWN 16
+5
99.9%
Williams, Takulve rush for 3 yards to the KANSAS19, PENALTY OKLAHOMA offside 5 yards to the KANSAS21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:01
4TH & 18
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Reis Vernon punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Marvin Mims at the Okla 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 23TD4 plays · 56 yds · 0:59100% → 100%
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+27
99.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Mikey Henderson for 27 yds to the Kans 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 24PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:220% → 0%
Q4 13:18
4TH & 5
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Reis Vernon punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Marvin Mims at the Okla 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 25TD6 plays · 70 yds · 1:48100% → 100%
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+33
99.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 33 yds to the Kans 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
99.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 5 yds to the Kans 32Similar
Q4 12:03
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+5
99.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 15 yds to the Kans 17 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jadon Haselwood) to the Kans 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+24
99.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Marcus Major for 24 yds to the Kans 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 26PUNT6 plays · -14 yds · 1:410% → 0%
Q4 10:58
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-5
100.0%
Pesek-Hickson, Amauri rush for 25 yards to the KANSAS45, PENALTY KANSAS illegal formation 5 yards to the KANSAS15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:44
3RD & 13
OWN 17
-11
100.0%
Jalon Daniels sacked by Isaiah Thomas for a loss of 11 yards to the Kans 6Similar
Q4 9:25
4TH & 24
OWN 6
+3
100.0%
Reis Vernon punt for 32 yds , Joseph Wete returns for 3 yds to the Kans 9 KANSAS Penalty, Illegal Touching (-5 Yards) to the Kans 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 27TD4 plays · 30 yds · 1:23100% → 100%
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
100.0%
Chandler Morris pass incomplete to Mikey Henderson, broken up by Jay DineenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 28TD17 plays · 75 yds · 7:340% → 0%
Q4 5:35
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+12
100.0%
Amauri Pesek-Hickson run for 12 yds to the Kans 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+7
100.0%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Ben Miles for 7 yds to the Okla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
100.0%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Tristan Golightly for 9 yds to the Okla 22Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 1
OPP 22
-6
100.0%
Miles Kendrick run for a loss of 6 yards to the Okla 28 Miles Kendrick fumbled, recovered by Kans Miles KendrickSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
100.0%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Will Huggins for 20 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:13
Spencer Rattler 2 Yd Run (Gabe Brkic Kick)
+1.3
TD · Q2 1:26
T.J. Pledger 4 Yd Run (Gabe Brkic Kick)
+0.7
TD · Q1 1:26
Rhamondre Stevenson 13 Yd Run (Gabe Brkic Kick)
+0.5