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BAY

Baylor 31 at Iowa State 38

ISU
2020 · Week 10 · Nov 7, 2020 · Jack Trice Stadium
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Win probability · ISU
modelISU aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playISU scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:52 · Issac Power punt for 46 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 55Pregame prior+25.1Home team on offense−3.8Garbage-time factor−1.2Score differential−1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:21: Brock Purdy pass intercepted for a TD Jalen Pitre return for 30 yds for a TD (John Mayers KICK) — BAY win probability +11.0 pts (now 43%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:11: Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 22 yds for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK) — ISU win probability +15.9 pts (now 59%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:37: Breece Hall run for 17 yds for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK) — ISU win probability +16.5 pts (now 73%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:23: Brock Purdy pass complete to Chase Allen for 10 yds for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK) — ISU win probability +14.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:43: Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 58 yds for a TD (John Mayers KICK) — BAY win probability +10.5 pts (now 15%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ISU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BAY made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 2:31ISU 4th & 4 at ISU 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.6%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.0%
    average punt
  2. Q2 12:52BAY 4th & 18 at ISU 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%−0.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    28.0%−0.7
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 2:04ISU 4th & 10 at BAY 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    47.0%−3.6
    average punt
  4. Q3 15:00BAY 4th & 6 at BAY 29, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.2%
    average punt
  5. Q3 12:06BAY 4th & 8 at ISU 19, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    44.9%−7.0
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:04BAY 4th & 12 at BAY 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−2.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.9%
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:31BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 38, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsPunted · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.7%−2.6
    average punt
  8. Q4 15:00BAY 4th & 14 at BAY 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−2.9
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.7%
    average punt
  9. Q4 8:43BAY 4th & 6 at BAY 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.8%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:43ISU 4th & 14 at ISU 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.3%−2.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ISU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5BAY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:07BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:31BAY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:52ISU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:21BAY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:11ISU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:37ISU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:23ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:46ISU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:43BAY Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ISUDrive 1INT
4 plays · 16 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
83.5%
Breece Hall run for 11 yds to the IowSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
83.5%
Purdy, Brock pass complete to Hutchinson, Xavier for 7 yards to the ISU41 (Pitre,Jalen), PENALTY BU offside defense (Logan,Ashton) 5 yards to the ISU39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 5
OWN 39
0
83.5%
Brock Purdy pass intercepted Kalon Barnes return for no gain to the Bayl 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2TD
6 plays · 89 yds · 2:4517% → 19%
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+9
83.2%
Craig Williams run for 9 yds to the Bayl 20Similar
Q1 13:52
2ND & 1
OWN 20
+3
83.1%
Craig Williams run for 3 yds to the Bayl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+62
83.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jared Atkinson for 62 yds to the IowSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
83.1%
Craig Williams run for no gain to the IowSt 15Similar
Q1 13:52
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+6
83.1%
Charlie Brewer run for 6 yds to the IowSt 9Similar
Q1 11:07
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+9
81.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 9 yds for a TD (John Mayers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 3INT
13 plays · 61 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
81.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Johnnie Lang Jr. for 8 yds to the IowSt 33Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
81.7%
Breece Hall run for 1 yd to the IowSt 34Similar
Q1 11:07
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
81.6%
Breece Hall run for 2 yds to the IowSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
81.6%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Sean Shaw Jr. for 3 yds to the IowSt 39Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+5
81.7%
Brock Purdy run for 5 yds to the IowSt 44Similar
Q1 11:07
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+6
81.7%
Kene Nwangwu run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
50
+15
81.8%
Breece Hall run for 15 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
81.9%
Breece Hall run for 3 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+13
81.9%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 13 yds to the Bayl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
81.9%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Joe ScatesSimilar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+5
81.9%
Breece Hall run for 5 yds to the Bayl 14Similar
Q1 11:07
3RD & 5
OPP 14
-56
81.8%
Brock Purdy pass intercepted Raleigh Texada return for 56 yds to the IowSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4TD
6 plays · 36 yds · 2:4623% → 29%
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+14
77.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Drake Dabney for 14 yds to the IowSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
77.1%
Craig Williams run for 2 yds to the IowSt 20Similar
Q1 5:17
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+7
77.1%
Craig Williams run for 7 yds to the IowSt 13Similar
Q1 5:17
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+1
77.2%
Craig Williams run for 1 yd to the IowSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
77.1%
Charlie Brewer run for 3 yds to the IowSt 9Similar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+9
71.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Drake Dabney for 9 yds for a TD (John Mayers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
72.3%
Breece Hall run for 4 yds to the IowSt 29Similar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
72.4%
Breece Hall run for 2 yds to the IowSt 31Similar
Q1 2:31
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
72.5%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Sean Shaw Jr., broken up by Kalon BarnesSimilar
Q1 2:31
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+2
72.3%
Joe Rivera punt for 49 yds , Trestan Ebner returns for 2 yds to the Bayl 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6INT
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
70.0%
Craig Williams run for 2 yds to the Bayl 24Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 8
OWN 24
0
70.0%
Charlie Brewer pass intercepted Tayvonn Kyle return for no gain to the Bayl 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 7TD
5 plays · 35 yds · 2:3772% → 75%
Q1 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
71.5%
Breece Hall run for 3 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 32
-1
71.1%
Brock Purdy run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+11
70.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Landen Akers for 11 yds to the Bayl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
71.1%
Kene Nwangwu run for 8 yds to the Bayl 14Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+14
74.8%
Breece Hall run for 14 yds for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8PUNT
14 plays · 29 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
72.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 20 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
71.2%
Craig Williams run for 4 yds to the Bayl 49Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+1
71.1%
Charlie Brewer run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:52
3RD & 5
50
+14
71.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Yusuf Terry for 14 yds to the IowSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-15
71.0%
BAYLOR Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Bayl 49Similar
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
71.1%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to R.J. SneedSimilar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
71.1%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Yusuf Terry, broken up by Anthony Johnson Jr.Similar
Q2 12:52
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+13
71.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 13 yds to the IowSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
71.0%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Gavin Holmes for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 39Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 11
OPP 39
-5
71.0%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the IowSt 44Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 16
OPP 44
+2
71.4%
Charlie Brewer run for 2 yds to the IowSt 42Similar
Q2 12:52
3RD & 14
OPP 42
-4
71.9%
Trestan Ebner run for a loss of 4 yards to the IowSt 46Similar
Q2 12:52
4TH & 18
OPP 46
0
72.6%
Issac Power punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 9INT TD
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:5469% → 58%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
68.5%
Breece Hall run for 3 yds to the IowSt 23Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
68.5%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Sean Shaw Jr.Similar
Q2 7:21
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-30
57.5%
Brock Purdy pass intercepted for a TD Jalen Pitre return for 30 yds for a TD (John Mayers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 10FG
12 plays · 40 yds · 5:1759% → 55%
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
58.5%
Breece Hall run for 3 yds to the IowSt 38Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+15
59.3%
Purdy, Brock pass incomplete to Hutchinson, Xavier, PENALTY BU pass interference (Milton,Mark) 15 yards to the BU47, 1ST DOWN ISU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
60.1%
Breece Hall run for 1 yd to the Bayl 46Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+10
60.1%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 10 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
60.1%
Breece Hall run for no gain to the Bayl 36Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+11
60.1%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Dylan Soehner for 11 yds to the Bayl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-6
60.6%
Breece Hall run for a loss of 6 yards to the Bayl 31Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 16
OPP 31
+6
60.3%
Brock Purdy run for 6 yds to the Bayl 25Similar
Q2 2:53
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
52.7%
Breece Hall run for no gain to the Bayl 25Similar
Q2 2:04
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+42
55.2%
Connor Assalley 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11END OF HALF
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:2945% → 48%
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
55.0%
Qualan Jones run for 9 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+4
54.3%
Qualan Jones run for 4 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-3
53.7%
Qualan Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 36Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 13
OWN 36
+4
52.5%
Qualan Jones run for 4 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0047% → 46%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
52.7%
Charlie Brewer run for 3 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
52.5%
Qualan Jones run for 1 yd to the Bayl 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
53.0%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Jared AtkinsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
54.0%
Issac Power punt for 44 yds , Greg Eisworth II returns for no gain to the IowSt 21 Greg Eisworth II fumbled, recovered by Bayl Gunnar RoyerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13FG
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1851% → 60%
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
48.6%
Qualan Jones run for 1 yd to the IowSt 20Similar
Q3 13:24
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+1
48.6%
Charlie Brewer run for 1 yd to the IowSt 19Similar
Q3 12:16
3RD & 8
OPP 19
0
46.7%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to R.J. SneedSimilar
Q3 12:06
4TH & 8
OPP 19
+36
39.8%
John Mayers 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 14TD
3 plays · 33 yds · 0:4443% → 59%
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
43.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Dylan Soehner for 11 yds to the Bayl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
59.3%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 22 yds for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0048% → 45%
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
52.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Yusuf Terry for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 19Similar
Q3 11:04
2ND & 12
OWN 19
0
53.1%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:04
3RD & 12
OWN 19
0
53.9%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to R.J. Sneed BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 11:04
4TH & 12
OWN 19
0
54.8%
Issac Power punt for 61 yds, downed at the IowSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 16TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 2:3152% → 73%
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
52.2%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Johnnie Lang Jr. for 10 yds to the IowSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
52.9%
Breece Hall run for 3 yds to the IowSt 33Similar
Q3 10:08
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+21
53.1%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Breece Hall for 21 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+29
56.9%
Brock Purdy run for 29 yds to the Bayl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
73.4%
Breece Hall run for 17 yds for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
64.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Qualan Jones for 3 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+6
64.6%
Charlie Brewer run for 6 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q3 7:31
3RD & 1
OWN 38
0
62.8%
Charlie Brewer run for no gain to the Bayl 38Similar
Q3 7:31
4TH & 1
OWN 38
0
65.0%
Issac Power punt for 33 yds, downed at the IowSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 18TD
11 plays · 71 yds · 5:1768% → 88%
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
68.2%
Breece Hall run for 3 yds to the IowSt 32Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 7
OWN 32
0
68.2%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Sean Shaw Jr., broken up by William Bradley-KingSimilar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+16
66.9%
Brock Purdy run for 16 yds to the IowSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
71.3%
Breece Hall run for 6 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 4
OPP 46
0
71.9%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Joe Scates, broken up by Raleigh TexadaSimilar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+9
71.0%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 9 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
72.0%
Breece Hall run for 12 yds to the Bayl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
72.8%
Breece Hall run for 8 yds to the Bayl 17Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+8
72.8%
Breece Hall run for 8 yds to the Bayl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
72.8%
Kene Nwangwu run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 10Similar
Q3 0:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
87.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Chase Allen for 10 yds for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:1719% → 17%
Q3 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
81.0%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 9 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+2
78.8%
Trestan Ebner run for 2 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-9
80.0%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Eyioma Uwazurike for a loss of 9 yards to the Bayl 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 24
0
81.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Qualan Jones for no gain to the Bayl 24Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 24
+5
82.4%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Qualan Jones for 5 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 29
+6
83.0%
Issac Power punt blocked by Landen Akers blocked by Landen Akers Landen Akers return for 6 yds to the Bayl 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 20TD
3 plays · 17 yds · 1:2689% → 96%
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
88.9%
Breece Hall run for 3 yds to the Bayl 8Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+2
88.9%
Breece Hall run for 2 yds to the Bayl 6Similar
Q4 10:46
3RD & 5
OPP 6
+6
95.8%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Breece Hall for 6 yds for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 21TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 1:568% → 15%
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
92.5%
Taye McWilliams run for no gain to the Bayl 20Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+18
92.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 18 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
91.5%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Taye McWilliamsSimilar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-5
91.7%
BAYLOR Penalty, false start (Jake Burton) to the Bayl 33Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 15
OWN 33
0
92.5%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Yusuf TerrySimilar
Q4 10:39
3RD & 15
OWN 33
+9
92.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Drake Dabney for 9 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q4 8:43
4TH & 6
OWN 42
+58
84.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 58 yds for a TD (John Mayers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 22PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
87.8%
Breece Hall run for 6 yds to the IowSt 31Similar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
88.2%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Chase Allen for 5 yds to the IowSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
88.7%
Breece Hall run for 4 yds to the IowSt 40Similar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 6
OWN 40
-1
89.4%
Breece Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 39Similar
Q4 8:43
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+14
88.2%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 14 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
89.8%
Breece Hall run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 49Similar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 12
OPP 49
-2
89.0%
Kene Nwangwu run for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 49Similar
Q4 8:43
3RD & 14
OWN 49
0
87.8%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Charlie KolarSimilar
Q4 8:43
4TH & 14
OWN 49
+36
87.1%
Joe Rivera punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IOWAST 25 BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Bayl 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 23INT
9 plays · 71 yds · 0:0011% → 18%
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
88.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 11 yds to the Bayl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
88.4%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 4 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+8
87.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Yusuf Terry for 8 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
86.6%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Trestan EbnerSimilar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+16
87.1%
Charlie Brewer run for 16 yds to the IowSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
84.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Qualan Jones for 5 yds to the IowSt 41Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+24
83.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 24 yds to the IowSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
82.0%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 3 yds to the IowSt 14Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 7
OPP 14
0
82.0%
Charlie Brewer pass intercepted, touchback. Mike Rose return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 24END OF GAME
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:1796% → 96%
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
95.8%
IOWA ST Penalty, false start (Darrell Simmons Jr.) to the IowSt 15Similar
Q4 0:57
1ST & 15
OWN 15
0
95.7%
Breece Hall run for no gain to the IowSt 15Similar
Q4 0:49
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+3
96.2%
Breece Hall run for 3 yds to the IowSt 18Similar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 12
OWN 18
-1
96.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:37
Breece Hall run for 17 yds for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK)
+16.5
TD · Q3 11:11
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 22 yds for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK)
+15.9
TD · Q3 0:23
Brock Purdy pass complete to Chase Allen for 10 yds for a TD (Connor Assalley KICK)
+14.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com