2020 · Week 9 · Oct 31, 2020 · Jones AT&T Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · TTU
modelTTU aheadOU aheadconfidence bandkey playTTU scoreOU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:16 · Austin McNamara punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Marvin Mims at the Okla 14
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 12:20: SaRodorick Thompson run for 5 yds for a TD SaRodorick Thompson run for 2 yds to the Okla 1 (Trey Wolff KICK) — TTU win probability +2.0 pts (now 16%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 5:31: Rhamondre Stevenson run for 6 yds for a TD (Gabe Brkic KICK) — OU win probability +2.5 pts (now 82%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 2:10: Rhamondre Stevenson run for 1 yd for a TD (Gabe Brkic KICK) — OU win probability +2.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:06: Spencer Rattler pass complete to Jeremiah Hall for 4 yds for a TD Spencer Rattler pass complete to Jeremiah Hall for 2 yds Jeremiah Hall fumbled, forced by Jacob Morgenstern, recovered by TexTc Zech McPhearson (Gabe Brkic KICK) — OU win probability +4.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:28: Rhamondre Stevenson run for 1 yd for a TD (Gabe Brkic KICK) — OU win probability +4.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TTU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6OU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
- Q1 12:20OU 4th & 3 at OU 32, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.0% before the snapGo for it82.0%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.1%average punt
- Q1 5:04TTU 4th & 2 at TTU 49, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call19.1%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt18.9%−0.2average punt
- Q2 14:06TTU 4th & 6 at TTU 29, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snapGo for it11.8%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.0%average punt
- Q2 12:05TTU 4th & 12 at OU 48, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snapGo for it8.0%−0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.1%average punt
- Q2 5:29OU 4th & 8 at OU 27, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.4% before the snapGo for it93.3%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.4%average punt
- Q2 1:42OU 4th & 3 at TTU 8, up 28Close callKicked a field goal · 95.3% before the snapGo for it95.3%47% to convertField goalTheir call95.2%−<0.190% to makePunt94.8%−0.4average punt
- Q2 1:26TTU 4th & 18 at TTU 17, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snapGo for it4.4%−0.512% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.8%average punt
- Q3 10:17TTU 4th & 19 at TTU 29, down 41Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snapGo for it1.0%−0.211% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%average punt
- Q3 3:16OU 4th & 4 at TTU 26, up 41Close callKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snapGo for it99.0%48% to convertField goalTheir call98.9%−<0.164% to makePunt98.6%−0.4average punt
- Q3 3:16TTU 4th & 2 at TTU 34, down 41Close callPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.5%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 1:14OU 4th & 4 at OU 20, up 41Close callPunted · 99.3% before the snapGo for it99.3%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 5:05OU 4th & 3 at OU 32, up 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TTU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4OU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q1 12:20TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call18.1%97% to makeGo for two18.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:31OU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.5%97% to makeGo for two78.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:04OU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.5%97% to makeGo for two80.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:10OU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.0%97% to makeGo for two82.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:06OU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.4%97% to makeGo for two87.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:05OU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.8%97% to makeGo for two92.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:28OU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.9%97% to makeGo for two95.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:15TTU Touchdown, down 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call6.4%97% to makeGo for two6.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:17OU Touchdown, up 40 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call98.9%97% to makeGo for two98.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:52TTU Touchdown, down 35 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.6%97% to makeGo for two0.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:51OU Touchdown, up 40 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:05TTU Touchdown, down 35 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%97% to makeGo for two0.2%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTTUDrive 1TD9 plays · 75 yds · 2:4014% → 16%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+22
14.0%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Erik Ezukanma for 22 yds to the TexTc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
14.0%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Erik Ezukanma for 9 yds to the Okla 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+5
14.0%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Erik Ezukanma for 5 yds to the Okla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+28
14.0%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 28 yds to the Okla 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
16.0%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 5 yds for a TD SaRodorick Thompson run for 2 yds to the Okla 1 (Trey Wolff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 2PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
TTUDrive 3PUNT8 plays · -23 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
17.2%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Erik Ezukanma for 12 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
17.4%
Henry Colombi sacked by Isaiah Thomas for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 43Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 11
OWN 43
-10
17.4%
Colombi, Henry pass incomplete to Cleveland, Trey (Norwood, Tre), PENALTY TTU holding (Burger, Josh) 10 yards to the TTU33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 26
OWN 28
-14
17.2%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-14 Yards) to the TexTc 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 4TD8 plays · 56 yds · 3:1982% → 82%
Q1 8:50
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+1
18.1%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to T.J. Pledger for 1 yd to the Okla 46Similar
Q1 8:50
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+41
18.2%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Austin Stogner for 41 yds Spencer Rattler fumbled, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-3
17.7%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Seth McGowan for a loss of 3 yards to the TexTc 16Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 13
OPP 16
+10
20.1%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Marvin Mims for 4 yds to the TexTc 12 for a 1ST down TEXAS TECH Penalty, face mask (6 yards) (Zech McPhearson) to the TexTc 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 5INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0018% → 19%
Q1 5:31
1ST & 0
OWN 35
+14
18.4%
Gabe Brkic kickoff for 65 yds , Alex Hogan return for 14 yds to the TexTc 14 Alex Hogan fumbled, forced by Bryan Mead, Alex Hogan fumbled, forced by Bryan Mead,Similar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-14
18.6%
Henry Colombi pass intercepted Tre Norwood return for 14 yds to the TexTc 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 6TD2 plays · 9 yds · 0:1082% → 84%
TTUDrive 7DOWNS6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 8TD4 plays · 50 yds · 0:5884% → 86%
TTUDrive 9INT3 plays · -5 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
OUDrive 10TD5 plays · 25 yds · 2:3686% → 91%
Q1 1:42
2ND & 4
OPP 19
0
13.8%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Seth McGowan for no gain to the TexTc 19Similar
Q1 1:42
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+11
13.9%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Drake Stoops for 11 yds to the TexTc 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
13.7%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Seth McGowan for 4 yds to the TexTc 4Similar
Q2 14:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
9.5%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Jeremiah Hall for 4 yds for a TD Spencer Rattler pass complete to Jeremiah Hall for 2 yds Jeremiah Hall fumbled, forced by Jacob Morgenstern, recovered by TexTc Zech McPhearson (Gabe Brkic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
OUDrive 12TD3 plays · 62 yds · 1:0990% → 91%
TTUDrive 13PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 0:007% → 7%
OUDrive 14TD6 plays · 80 yds · 3:2491% → 96%
Q2 9:52
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+48
8.6%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Theo Wease for 48 yds to the TexTc 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 15TD2 plays · 75 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
5.2%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Travis Koontz for 75 yds for a TD (Trey Wolff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 2 yds · 0:4692% → 92%
TTUDrive 17FUMBLE3 plays · 23 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 5:15
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-3
4.9%
Henry Colombi run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard line Henry Colombi fumbled, recovered by Okla Isaiah Thomas , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 18FG7 plays · 42 yds · 2:5693% → 95%
TTUDrive 19PUNT6 plays · -8 yds · 0:165% → 5%
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
4.8%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Tahj Brooks for 4 yds to the TexTc 29Similar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
4.1%
Henry Colombi pass incomplete to Erik Ezukanma, broken up by Tre BrownSimilar
Q2 1:42
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-12
4.0%
Henry Colombi sacked by Nik Bonitto and Isaiah Thomas for a loss of 12 yards to the TexTc 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 20FG11 plays · 49 yds · 1:1796% → 97%
Q2 1:17
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+9
4.1%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Austin Stogner for 9 yds to the Okla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+11
4.9%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Rhamondre Stevenson for 11 yds to the TexTc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
4.9%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Jeremiah Hall for 8 yds to the TexTc 29Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+11
4.7%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Theo Wease for 11 yds to the TexTc 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 21TD12 plays · 75 yds · 4:4398% → 99%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
2.5%
Rattler, S. pass incomplete to Stogner, Austin (Monroe, Eric), PENALTY TTU holding 10 yards to the OU35, 1ST DOWN OU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+9
2.5%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Theo Wease for 9 yds to the Okla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+18
2.4%
Rhamondre Stevenson run for 18 yds to the TexTc 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+12
2.3%
Rhamondre Stevenson run for 12 yds to the TexTc 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+18
2.3%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Theo Howard for 18 yds to the TexTc 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
2.2%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Rhamondre Stevenson for 2 yds to the TexTc 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 22PUNT8 plays · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 10:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
1.1%
Henry Colombi pass complete to KeSean Carter for 8 yds to the TexTc 33Similar
Q3 10:17
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
1.2%
Colombi, Henry pass intercepted by Washington, W. at the OU32, Washington, W. return to the 50 yardline, out-of-bounds, PENALTY OU offside (Bonitto, Nik) 5 yards to the TTU38, 1ST DOWN TTU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 12
OWN 36
0
1.1%
Henry Colombi pass incomplete to Tahj Brooks, broken up by DaShaun WhiteSimilar
Q3 10:17
4TH & 19
OWN 29
+11
1.1%
Austin McNamara punt for 52 yds , Marvin Mims returns for 11 yds to the Okla 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 23MISSED FG9 plays · 44 yds · 4:5899% → 99%
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
1.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Seth McGowan for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 29Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+14
1.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Brian Darby for 14 yds to the Okla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
1.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Theo Howard for 13 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 24PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 3:16
4TH & 2
OWN 34
0
0.5%
Austin McNamara punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Marvin Mims at the Okla 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 25PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 26TD8 plays · 46 yds · 2:250% → 0%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
0.4%
Colombi, Henry pass incomplete to Ezukanma, Erik, PENALTY TTU ineligible downfield on pass (Deaton, Dawson) 5 yards to the OU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 40
+8
0.4%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Erik Ezukanma for 8 yds to the Okla 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 38
+28
0.4%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Erik Ezukanma for 28 yds to the Okla 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
0.4%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 10 yds for a TD (Trey Wolff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 27TD10 plays · 75 yds · 5:01100% → 100%
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
0.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Marvin Mims for 11 yds to the Okla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+8
0.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Marvin Mims for 8 yds to the TexTc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+13
0.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Mikey Henderson for 13 yds to the TexTc 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 28TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:460% → 0%
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
0.2%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Trey Cleveland for 14 yds to the TexTc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 12
OWN 37
+9
0.2%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Chadarius Townsend for 9 yds to the TexTc 46Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+9
0.2%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Myles Price for 9 yds to the Okla 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 29PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:05
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+17
0.2%
Reeves Mundschau punt for 47 yds , Adrian Frye returns for 17 yds to the TexTc 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 30END OF GAME6 plays · 44 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
0.1%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Trey Cleveland for 9 yds to the TexTc 47Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+3
0.1%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Loic Fouonji for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+22
0.1%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Loic Fouonji for 22 yds to the Okla 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:06
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Jeremiah Hall for 4 yds for a TD Spencer Rattler pass complete to Jeremiah Hall for 2 yds Jeremiah Hall fumbled, forced by Jacob Morgenstern, recovered by TexTc Zech McPhearson (Gabe Brkic KICK)
-4.2
TD · Q2 6:28
Rhamondre Stevenson run for 1 yd for a TD (Gabe Brkic KICK)
-4.2
TD · Q1 5:31
Rhamondre Stevenson run for 6 yds for a TD (Gabe Brkic KICK)
-2.5