2020 · Week 9 · Oct 31, 2020 · Milan Puskar Stadium
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Win probability · WVU
modelWVU aheadKSU aheadconfidence bandkey playWVU scoreKSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:30 · Jarret Doege run for 2 yds to the KanSt 47 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:27: Jarret Doege pass complete to Ali Jennings for 5 yds for a TD (Casey Legg KICK) — WVU win probability +4.4 pts (now 72%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:31: Leddie Brown run for 9 yds for a TD (Casey Legg KICK) — WVU win probability +7.8 pts (now 80%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:38: Jarret Doege pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 15 yds for a TD (Casey Legg KICK) — WVU win probability +11.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:05: Will Howard pass complete to Malik Knowles for 35 yds for a TD (Blake Lynch KICK) — KSU win probability +11.0 pts (now 20%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 9:16: Casey Legg 25 yd FG GOOD — WVU win probability +2.3 pts (now 86%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WVU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8KSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
- Q1 12:47WVU 4th & 11 at KSU 34, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.4% before the snapGo for it64.4%−<0.127% to convertField goalTheir call64.4%47% to makePunt64.4%−0.1average punt
- Q1 8:33KSU 4th & 2 at WVU 2, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 36.4% before the snapGo for it36.5%48% to convertField goalTheir call36.2%−0.294% to makePunt35.2%−1.2average punt
- Q1 3:06WVU 4th & 2 at KSU 2, down 3Close callKicked a field goal · 62.6% before the snapGo for it62.6%48% to convertField goalTheir call62.2%−0.594% to makePunt60.2%−2.4average punt
- Q1 2:23WVU 4th & 19 at WVU 3, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 62.6% before the snapGo for it61.6%−1.29% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.8%average punt
- Q2 14:44KSU 4th & 8 at WVU 34, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 37.8% before the snapGo for it37.7%34% to convertField goalTheir call37.7%−<0.147% to makePunt37.3%−0.4average punt
- Q2 12:22KSU 4th & 14 at KSU 16, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snapGo for it29.2%−1.417% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.5%average punt
- Q2 8:31KSU 4th & 7 at KSU 38, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.5% before the snapGo for it23.1%−0.737% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.7%average punt
- Q3 9:16WVU 4th & 8 at KSU 8, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.9% before the snapGo for it84.7%−0.626% to convertField goalTheir call85.4%90% to makePunt78.4%−6.9average punt
- Q3 7:46KSU 4th & 16 at KSU 42, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snapGo for it3.8%−1.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.0%average punt
- Q3 3:34WVU 4th & 1 at WVU 43, up 24Close callPunted · 97.3% before the snapGo for it97.6%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.0%−0.6average punt
- Q3 1:44KSU 4th & 4 at KSU 35, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snapGo for it2.5%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.5%average punt
- Q4 10:35WVU 4th & 12 at KSU 28, up 24Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.6% before the snapGo for it98.4%−0.223% to convertField goalTheir call98.6%60% to makePunt97.8%−0.7average punt
- Q4 10:31KSU 4th & 11 at KSU 40, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 3:30WVU 4th & 1 at KSU 49, up 27Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 1:31WVU 4th & 2 at KSU 39, up 27Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%57% to convertField goal99.9%−0.136% to makePunt99.8%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WVU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3KSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q2 12:27WVU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.9%97% to makeGo for two67.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:31WVU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.3%97% to makeGo for two77.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:38WVU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.9%97% to makeGo for two90.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:05KSU Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call16.3%97% to makeGo for two16.3%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKSUDrive 1INT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
WVUDrive 2MISSED FG5 plays · 10 yds · 1:5068% → 67%
Q1 14:37
3RD & 7
OPP 30
-4
67.6%
Jarret Doege sacked by Khalid Duke for a loss of 4 yards to the KanSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 3FG10 plays · 64 yds · 4:1433% → 34%
Q1 12:47
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+9
67.2%
Will Howard pass complete to Chabastin Taylor for 9 yds to the KanSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+28
67.1%
Will Howard pass complete to Briley Moore for 28 yds to the WVirg 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
67.0%
Will Howard pass complete to Chabastin Taylor for 8 yds to the WVirg 12Similar
Q1 12:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
67.0%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Jax Dineen, broken up by Tykee SmithSimilar
Q1 12:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
67.1%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Malik Knowles, broken up by Tony Fields IISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 4FG21 plays · 72 yds · 5:2266% → 66%
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
66.2%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sam James for 9 yds to the WVirg 35Similar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+8
66.6%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 8 yds to the WVirg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+7
66.4%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Leddie Brown for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:28
3RD & 3
50
+7
66.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Ali Jennings for 7 yds to the KanSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
66.9%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Sam James (Jones II, Will), PENALTY KS holding 10 yards to the KS33, 1ST DOWN WVU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:28
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+8
66.8%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 8 yds to the KanSt 6 for a 1ST down KANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
67.1%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Sam James (Gardner, Justin), PENALTY KS holding (Gardner, Justin) 3 yards to the KS3, 1ST DOWN WVU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
67.2%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive offside (Wyatt Hubert) to the KanSt 1Similar
Q1 8:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
67.2%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, false start (Bryce Ford-Wheaton) to the KanSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 5INT3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0036% → 35%
WVUDrive 6PUNT4 plays · -9 yds · 0:0066% → 65%
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-2
66.0%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the WVirg 10Similar
Q1 2:23
2ND & 12
OWN 10
-8
65.9%
Jarret Doege sacked by Drew Wiley for a loss of 8 yards to the WVirg 2Similar
Q1 2:23
4TH & 19
OWN 3
+8
65.0%
Kolton McGhee punt for 41 yds , Phillip Brooks returns for 8 yds to the WVirg 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 7MISSED FG4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4337% → 36%
WVUDrive 8TD6 plays · 66 yds · 2:1766% → 72%
KSUDrive 9PUNT6 plays · -4 yds · 0:0030% → 28%
Q2 12:22
2ND & 5
OWN 25
-5
70.1%
Howard, Will pass complete to Taylor, C. for 3 yards to the KS28 (Alonzo Addae), PENALTY KS ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the KS20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-4
70.6%
Will Howard pass complete to Deuce Vaughn for a loss of 4 yards to the KanSt 16Similar
Q2 12:22
3RD & 14
OWN 16
0
71.3%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Chabastin Taylor, broken up by Dreshun MillerSimilar
Q2 12:22
4TH & 14
OWN 16
0
71.6%
Ty Zentner punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Alec Sinkfield at the WVirg 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 10TD6 plays · 51 yds · 1:5873% → 80%
KSUDrive 11PUNT8 plays · 13 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q2 8:31
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+5
77.6%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 5 yds to the KanSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:31
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
77.9%
Jack Blumer punt for 32 yds , Alec Sinkfield returns for no gain to the WVirg 31 Alec Sinkfield fumbled,Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+5
77.8%
Will Howard pass complete to Deuce Vaughn for 5 yds to the KanSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 12TD4 plays · 69 yds · 1:4980% → 92%
KSUDrive 13TD11 plays · 73 yds · 2:2810% → 20%
Q2 3:33
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+9
90.1%
Will Howard pass complete to Briley Moore for 9 yds to the KanSt 36Similar
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
89.6%
Will Howard pass complete to D.J. Render for 7 yds to the KanSt 48Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+7
89.2%
Will Howard pass complete to Sammy Wheeler for 7 yds to the WVirg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
89.3%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Phillip Brooks, broken up by Sean MahoneSimilar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+2
89.5%
Will Howard pass complete to Chabastin Taylor for 2 yds to the WVirg 43Similar
Q2 1:26
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+8
90.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Sammy Wheeler for 8 yds to the WVirg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
79.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Malik Knowles for 35 yds for a TD (Blake Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 14END OF HALF9 plays · 31 yds · 0:3984% → 84%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 15Uncategorized16 plays · 67 yds · 5:4484% → 86%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
83.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 10 yds to the WVirg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+10
84.2%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Leddie Brown for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+5
84.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Leddie Brown for 5 yds to the KanSt 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+21
83.8%
Jarret Doege pass complete to T.J. Simmons for 21 yds to the KanSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-10
84.4%
Alec Sinkfield rush for 2 yards to the KS19 (McPherson, J.), PENALTY WVU holding (Brandon Yates) 10 yards to the KS31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 23
+15
83.8%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Mike O'Laughlin for 15 yds to the KanSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 16INT TD5 plays · 13 yds · 1:0810% → 10%
KSUDrive 17PUNT12 plays · 20 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
95.8%
Will Howard pass incomplete to Phillip Brooks, broken up by Dreshun MillerSimilar
Q3 7:46
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+8
95.8%
Will Howard pass complete to Nick Lenners for 8 yds to the KanSt 30Similar
Q3 7:46
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+9
95.7%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 9 yds to the KanSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
95.6%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 7 yds to the WVirg 45Similar
Q3 7:46
2ND & 3
OPP 45
-8
95.5%
Will Howard sacked by Dante Stills for a loss of 8 yards to the KanSt 47Similar
Q3 7:46
4TH & 16
OWN 42
0
95.9%
Ty Zentner punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Alec Sinkfield at the WVirg 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 21 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 3:34
4TH & 1
OWN 43
+7
97.8%
Kolton McGhee punt for 35 yds , Phillip Brooks returns for 7 yds to the KanSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:002% → 2%
WVUDrive 20FG12 plays · 44 yds · 4:4299% → 100%
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+15
98.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Reese Smith for 15 yds to the WVirg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 46
-10
98.5%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Winston Wright (Jones II, Will), PENALTY WVU holding (Chase Behrndt) 10 yards to the WVU36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 21
OWN 36
+38
98.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 38 yds to the KanSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 24
0
98.6%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton, broken up by Justin GardnerSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 24
-10
98.6%
Leddie Brown rush for 12 yards to the KS12, out-of-bounds (Boye-Doe, Ekow), PENALTY WVU holding (Brandon Yates) 10 yards to the KS34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 18
OPP 34
+6
98.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Leddie Brown for 6 yds to the KanSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 21PUNT8 plays · 24 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:31
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+18
99.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 18 yds to the KanSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-8
99.9%
Will Howard sacked by Jared Bartlett for a loss of 8 yards to the KanSt 33Similar
Q4 10:31
3RD & 15
OWN 36
+4
99.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Sammy Wheeler for 4 yds to the KanSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 22FUMBLE12 plays · 43 yds · 5:27100% → 100%
Q4 1:31
4TH & 2
OPP 39
+7
100.0%
Alec Sinkfield run for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard line Alec Sinkfield fumbled, forced by Chabastin Taylor, recovered by KanSt Aamaris Brown , return to the 50 yard line , return for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 23Uncategorized2 plays · 20 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:38
Jarret Doege pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 15 yds for a TD (Casey Legg KICK)
+11.2
TD · Q2 1:05
Will Howard pass complete to Malik Knowles for 35 yds for a TD (Blake Lynch KICK)
-11
TD · Q2 8:31
Leddie Brown run for 9 yds for a TD (Casey Legg KICK)
+7.8