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TCU

TCU 33 at Baylor 23

BAY
2020 · Week 9 · Oct 31, 2020 · McLane Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadTCU aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreTCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:00 · Emari Demercado run for 7 yds to the Bayl 6 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 178Home team on offense−37.0Score differential−12.4Garbage-time factor−12.9Pregame prior−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−6.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−11.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:36: Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 13 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell PAT MISSED) — TCU win probability +4.7 pts (now 68%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:14: Charlie Brewer pass complete to Ben Sims for 1 yd for a TD (John Mayers KICK) — BAY win probability +12.6 pts (now 20%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:59: Charlie Brewer pass complete to Ben Sims for 3 yds for a TD (John Mayers KICK) — BAY win probability +10.8 pts (now 13%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 12:58: John Mayers 27 yd FG GOOD — BAY win probability +6.0 pts (now 13%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:25: Craig Williams run for 32 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — BAY win probability +10.1 pts (now 20%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 12 of 12TCU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 12:38TCU 4th & 10 at TCU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:39BAY 4th & 10 at BAY 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:54BAY 4th & 8 at BAY 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:08BAY 4th & 6 at BAY 30, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:21TCU 4th & 18 at TCU 35, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.7%−1.9
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:10BAY 4th & 18 at BAY 8, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−1.6
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:12BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 41, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.9%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:07TCU 4th & 9 at BAY 16, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.4%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.6%
    81% to make
    Punt
    80.7%−2.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:04BAY 4th & 13 at BAY 14, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:43TCU 4th & 10 at BAY 48, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.9%
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:40BAY 4th & 15 at BAY 34, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:43BAY 4th & 27 at BAY 35, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−4.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:24TCU 4th & 11 at BAY 17, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%−0.9
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.2%
    80% to make
    Punt
    87.3%−3.9
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:16BAY 4th & 19 at BAY 29, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−1.4
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.9%
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:35TCU 4th & 1 at BAY 31, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    96.1%−0.8
    54% to make
    Punt
    95.7%−1.2
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:09TCU 4th & 1 at TCU 34, up 19
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.4%−1.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:15BAY 4th & 3 at TCU 38, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    7.6%−2.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    7.4%−2.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:58BAY 4th & 10 at TCU 10, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−1.3
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.5%
    88% to make
    Punt
    -1.1%−7.6
    average punt
  19. Q4 11:57TCU 4th & 9 at TCU 32, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.9%−1.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 8:44TCU 4th & 13 at TCU 33, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.1%−4.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.3%
    average punt
  21. Q4 6:24BAY 4th & 2 at TCU 42, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    11.7%−2.3
    30% to make
    Punt
    11.7%−2.3
    average punt
  22. Q4 2:00TCU 4th & 1 at BAY 13, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    92.8%−1.4
    85% to make
    Punt
    89.1%−5.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 2 of 3TCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:06TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:36TCU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    65.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:20TCU Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:14BAY Touchdown, down 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:59BAY Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:25BAY Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    18.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    17.6%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TCUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 2:1257% → 57%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
42.6%
Darwin Barlow run for 5 yds to the TCU 35Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 5
OWN 35
-5
42.7%
Darwin Barlow run for a loss of 5 yards to the TCU 30Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 10
OWN 30
-5
43.0%
TCU Penalty, False Start (Austin Myers) to the TCU 25Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 15
OWN 25
+5
43.2%
Max Duggan pass complete to Daimarqua Foster for 5 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q1 12:38
4TH & 10
OWN 30
0
43.4%
Jordy Sandy punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Trestan Ebner at the Bayl 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:5143% → 44%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
43.3%
Lovett, John rush for no gain to the BAYLOR25, PENALTY BAYLOR holding (Newman-Johnson, Xavier) 10 yards to the BAYLOR15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 20
OWN 15
-4
43.4%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 11Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 24
OWN 11
+3
43.5%
John Lovett run for 3 yds to the Bayl 14Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+11
43.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to John Lovett for 11 yds to the Bayl 25Similar
Q1 10:39
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
43.7%
Issac Power punt for 48 yds , Derius Davis returns for no gain to the TCU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 3TD
5 plays · 73 yds · 1:2956% → 59%
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
43.9%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 15 yds to the TCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+17
43.7%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 17 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
43.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 1 yd to the Bayl 40Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+37
43.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 37 yds to the Bayl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
41.5%
Darwin Barlow run for 3 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0642% → 39%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
42.0%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Jared AtkinsonSimilar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
42.0%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to R.J. SneedSimilar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 10
OWN 12
+2
41.8%
Charlie Brewer run for 2 yds to the Bayl 14Similar
Q1 7:54
4TH & 8
OWN 14
+67
39.3%
Issac Power punt for 53 yds , Derius Davis returns for 67 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5INT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:1140% → 39%
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
39.8%
Craig Williams run for 5 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+15
39.9%
TCU Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Terrell Cooper) to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-4
40.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 49 TEAM fumbled, recovered by BaylSimilar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 14
OPP 49
+3
39.6%
Trestan Ebner run for 3 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q1 5:34
3RD & 11
OPP 46
0
39.1%
Charlie Brewer pass intercepted La'Kendrick Van Zandt return for no gain to the TCU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6TD
5 plays · 60 yds · 0:4963% → 68%
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
37.2%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
50
+5
37.0%
Duggan, Max pass incomplete to Foster, Daimarqua, PENALTY BAYLOR offside (Franklin, TJ) 5 yards to the BAYLOR45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:04
1ST & 5
OPP 45
+10
36.9%
Daimarqua Foster run for 10 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+22
36.8%
Daimarqua Foster run for 8 yds to the Bayl 27 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, Targeting (Jalen Pitre) to the Bayl 13 for a 1ST down, Pitre disqualifiedSimilar
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
32.1%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 13 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1334% → 33%
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
33.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Josh Fleeks for 5 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 5
OWN 31
-1
33.9%
Craig Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 30Similar
Q1 3:18
3RD & 6
OWN 30
0
33.0%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Josh FleeksSimilar
Q1 3:08
4TH & 6
OWN 30
+3
32.8%
Issac Power punt for 42 yds , Derius Davis returns for 3 yds to the TCU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:3969% → 71%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
31.1%
Darwin Barlow run for 1 yd to the TCU 32Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+11
30.1%
Darwin Barlow run for 11 yds to the TCU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
29.3%
Darwin Barlow run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 42Similar
Q1 1:29
2ND & 11
OWN 42
0
28.8%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Darwin Barlow, broken up by Dillon DoyleSimilar
Q1 1:25
3RD & 11
OWN 42
-7
29.1%
Max Duggan sacked by Ryan Miller for a loss of 7 yards to the TCU 35Similar
Q1 0:21
4TH & 18
OWN 35
0
28.9%
Jordy Sandy punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Trestan Ebner at the Bayl 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:0430% → 29%
Q1 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
30.1%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Ben SimsSimilar
Q1 0:05
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+1
29.8%
Trestan Ebner run for 1 yd to the Bayl 17Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 17
-9
29.6%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Kee'yon Stewart for a loss of 9 yards to the Bayl 8Similar
Q2 14:10
4TH & 18
OWN 8
0
28.9%
TEAM punt for 40 yds, downed at the Bayl 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10TD
3 plays · 48 yds · 0:4574% → 77%
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
25.8%
Duggan, Max pass incomplete to Johnston, Quentin, PENALTY BAYLOR pass interference (Texada, Raleigh) 15 yards to the BAYLOR33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TCU.Similar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
25.6%
Taye Barber run for 3 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+30
22.6%
Zach Evans run for 30 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:5621% → 20%
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
20.9%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to R.J. SneedSimilar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+7
20.6%
Craig Williams run for 7 yds to the Bayl 39Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+2
20.5%
Craig Williams run for 2 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q2 12:12
4TH & 1
OWN 41
0
20.4%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Yusuf Terry, broken up by Trevon MoehrigSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12FG
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:5378% → 78%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
22.0%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 12 yds to the Bayl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
20.4%
Max Duggan run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 31Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 12
OPP 31
+7
20.0%
Max Duggan run for 7 yds to the Bayl 24Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+7
19.9%
Darwin Barlow run for 7 yds to the Bayl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
18.9%
Darwin Barlow run for 1 yd to the Bayl 16Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 9
OPP 16
0
18.5%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Pro WellsSimilar
Q2 9:12
3RD & 9
OPP 16
0
19.1%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Emari DemercadoSimilar
Q2 9:07
4TH & 9
OPP 16
+33
21.7%
Griffin Kell 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:5617% → 17%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-3
17.1%
Trestan Ebner run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 14Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 13
OWN 14
0
16.5%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:16
3RD & 13
OWN 14
0
16.4%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Josh Fleeks, broken up by Ar'Darius WashingtonSimilar
Q2 8:04
4TH & 13
OWN 14
0
17.1%
Issac Power punt for 34 yds, downed at the Bayl 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 2:1783% → 83%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-4
17.5%
Max Duggan sacked by TEAM for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 48Similar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 14
OWN 48
+3
17.1%
Max Duggan pass complete to Pro Wells for 3 yds to the Bayl 49Similar
Q2 6:42
3RD & 11
OPP 49
-5
16.7%
TCU Penalty, False Start (Austin Myers) to the TCU 46Similar
Q2 6:12
3RD & 16
OWN 46
+6
16.3%
Max Duggan pass complete to Mikel Barkley for 6 yds to the Bayl 48Similar
Q2 5:43
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
17.1%
Jordy Sandy punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Trestan Ebner at the Bayl 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 3:0015% → 12%
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
15.0%
Charlie Brewer run for no gain to the Bayl 12Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+27
14.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Yusuf Terry for 27 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
14.9%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 34Similar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 15
OWN 34
-8
14.4%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Terrell Cooper for a loss of 8 yards to the Bayl 26Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 23
OWN 26
-3
13.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 23Similar
Q2 3:40
3RD & 26
OWN 23
+11
13.1%
Trestan Ebner run for 11 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q2 2:40
4TH & 15
OWN 34
0
12.4%
Issac Power punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Derius Davis at the TCU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 16FUMBLE
3 plays · 10 yds · 1:1287% → 90%
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
13.5%
Zach Evans run for 4 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
10.6%
Zach Evans run for 7 yds to the TCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
9.9%
Max Duggan run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 35 Max Duggan fumbled, recovered by Bayl Brayden UtleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17TD
6 plays · 35 yds · 1:0413% → 20%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
12.5%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to R.J. SneedSimilar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-5
11.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the TCU 40 TEAM fumbled, recovered by BaylSimilar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 15
OPP 40
+39
10.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 39 yds to the TCU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
11.2%
Trestan Ebner run for no gain to the TCU 1Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
20.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Ben Sims for 1 yd for a TD (John Mayers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 18END OF HALF
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-4
13.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -17 yds · 1:5219% → 14%
Q3 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-9
18.6%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Dee Winters for a loss of 9 yards to the Bayl 43Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 19
OWN 43
0
17.0%
Charlie Brewer run for no gain to the Bayl 43Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 19
OWN 43
-8
14.9%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Earl Barquet for a loss of 8 yards to the Bayl 35Similar
Q3 12:43
4TH & 27
OWN 35
+1
13.7%
Issac Power punt for 60 yds , Derius Davis returns for 1 yd to the TCU 36 TCU Penalty, Personal Foul (3 Yards) to the TCU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 20FG
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:1190% → 95%
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+7
10.5%
Darwin Barlow run for 7 yds to the TCU 10Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 3
OWN 10
+74
9.6%
Darwin Barlow run for 74 yds to the Bayl 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
8.1%
Darwin Barlow run for no gain to the Bayl 16Similar
Q3 10:44
2ND & 10
OPP 16
-1
7.8%
Daimarqua Foster run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 17Similar
Q3 10:29
3RD & 11
OPP 17
0
8.0%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Quentin JohnstonSimilar
Q3 10:24
4TH & 11
OPP 17
+34
4.7%
Griffin Kell 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:044% → 3%
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
3.9%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Josh FleeksSimilar
Q3 10:08
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
3.8%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Yusuf TerrySimilar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 10
OWN 38
-9
3.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 9 yards to the Bayl 29Similar
Q3 9:16
4TH & 19
OWN 29
0
3.1%
Issac Power punt for 44 yds , TEAM returns for no gain to the TCU 29 TCU Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the TCU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 22DOWNS
7 plays · 52 yds · 2:3496% → 97%
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
3.9%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+33
3.8%
Zach Evans run for 33 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
50
+10
3.4%
Max Duggan pass complete to Zach Evans for 10 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
3.2%
Zach Evans run for 3 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+4
3.1%
Max Duggan pass complete to Pro Wells for 4 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+2
2.7%
Darwin Barlow run for 2 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q3 6:35
4TH & 1
OPP 31
0
3.1%
Darwin Barlow run for no gain to the Bayl 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 23TD
11 plays · 69 yds · 3:263% → 13%
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
2.8%
Charlie Brewer run for 5 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+2
2.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 2 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q3 5:35
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+10
2.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 10 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
2.8%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Khari Coleman for a loss of 5 yards to the Bayl 43Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 15
OWN 43
0
2.4%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Yusuf TerrySimilar
Q3 4:34
3RD & 15
OWN 43
+16
2.4%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Yusuf Terry for 16 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
2.8%
Trestan Ebner run for 3 yds to the TCU 38Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+11
2.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Josh Fleeks for 11 yds to the TCU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+22
2.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Ben Sims for 22 yds to the TCU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
2.5%
Trestan Ebner run for 2 yds to the TCU 3Similar
Q3 2:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
13.4%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Ben Sims for 3 yds for a TD (John Mayers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:4195% → 95%
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
5.5%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 4 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
5.3%
Derius Davis run for 5 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q3 1:35
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
4.9%
Emari Demercado run for no gain to the TCU 34Similar
Q3 1:09
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
4.9%
Jordy Sandy punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Trestan Ebner at the Bayl 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 25FG
11 plays · 61 yds · 3:079% → 13%
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
9.3%
TCU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Trevon Moehrig) to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
9.5%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:51
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+15
9.3%
Brewer, Charlie pass incomplete to Sneed, R.J. (Stewart, Kee'yon), PENALTY TCU pass interference 15 yards to the TCU45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BAYLOR.Similar
Q3 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
10.0%
Charlie Brewer run for no gain to the TCU 45Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+2
9.2%
Craig Williams run for 2 yds to the TCU 43Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+5
9.0%
Trestan Ebner run for 5 yds to the TCU 38Similar
Q4 14:15
4TH & 3
OPP 38
+30
8.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 30 yds to the TCU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
8.5%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Josh FleeksSimilar
Q4 13:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
8.4%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to R.J. Sneed for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 10Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
6.9%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Josh FleeksSimilar
Q4 12:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
13.0%
John Mayers 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5193% → 92%
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
7.5%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Pro WellsSimilar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+1
7.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 1 yd to the TCU 32Similar
Q4 12:04
3RD & 9
OWN 32
0
7.8%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Blair ConwrightSimilar
Q4 11:57
4TH & 9
OWN 32
0
8.0%
Jordy Sandy punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Trestan Ebner at the Bayl 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 27TD
5 plays · 71 yds · 1:2511% → 20%
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+21
10.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
50
+9
10.3%
Charlie Brewer run for 9 yds to the TCU 41Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+9
11.4%
Craig Williams run for 9 yds to the TCU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
9.4%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to R.J. SneedSimilar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+32
19.5%
Craig Williams run for 32 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 28PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:3685% → 85%
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
14.8%
Max Duggan run for 12 yds to the TCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
13.4%
Max Duggan sacked by Dillon Doyle for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 33Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 13
OWN 33
0
14.5%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Zach EvansSimilar
Q4 8:52
3RD & 13
OWN 33
0
15.0%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Blair ConwrightSimilar
Q4 8:44
4TH & 13
OWN 33
+58
15.0%
Jordy Sandy punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Trestan Ebner at the BAYLOR 18 BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive Holding (9 Yards) to the Bayl 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 29DOWNS
7 plays · 49 yds · 2:1213% → 13%
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
12.9%
Craig Williams run for 4 yds to the Bayl 13Similar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+14
13.0%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Ben Sims for 14 yds to the Bayl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+23
13.5%
Craig Williams run for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
50
0
15.2%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to R.J. Sneed, broken up by Ar'Darius WashingtonSimilar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 10
50
0
14.7%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Jared AtkinsonSimilar
Q4 7:01
3RD & 10
50
+8
13.7%
Craig Williams run for 8 yds to the TCU 42Similar
Q4 6:24
4TH & 2
OPP 42
0
13.1%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Ben Sims, broken up by Trevon MoehrigSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 30END OF 4TH QUARTER
16 plays · 42 yds · 6:0890% → 97%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
9.6%
Darwin Barlow run for 9 yds to the Bayl 48Similar
Q4 5:38
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+13
8.7%
Max Duggan run for 13 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
8.7%
Darwin Barlow run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 36Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+4
8.7%
Darwin Barlow run for 4 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+10
8.4%
Max Duggan run for 10 yds to the Bayl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
6.6%
Zach Evans run for 2 yds to the Bayl 20Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+2
6.4%
Zach Evans run for 2 yds to the Bayl 18Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+5
5.5%
Emari Demercado run for 5 yds to the Bayl 13Similar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+7
4.1%
Emari Demercado run for 7 yds to the Bayl 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
2.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 8Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
2.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 11Similar
Q4 0:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
-4
2.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:14
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Ben Sims for 1 yd for a TD (John Mayers KICK)
+12.6
TD · Q3 2:59
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Ben Sims for 3 yds for a TD (John Mayers KICK)
+10.8
TD · Q4 10:25
Craig Williams run for 32 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+10.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com