2020 · Week 8 · Oct 24, 2020 · Jones AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · TTU
modelTTU aheadWVU aheadconfidence bandkey playTTU scoreWVU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:42 · Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Sam Brown, broken up by DaMarcus Fields
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 2:36: Henry Colombi pass complete to Trey Cleveland for 11 yds for a TD (Trey Wolff KICK) — TTU win probability +13.8 pts (now 64%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 13:41: Jarret Doege pass complete to T.J. Banks for 2 yds for a TD (Evan Staley KICK) — WVU win probability +15.0 pts (now 58%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:05: Tahj Brooks run for 5 yds for a TD (Trey Wolff KICK) — TTU win probability +15.4 pts (now 70%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:00: Leddie Brown run for 1 yd for a TD (Evan Staley KICK) — WVU win probability +17.1 pts (now 57%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- FUMBLE · Q4 8:44: Jarret Doege pass complete to Sam James for a loss of 2 yards for a TD Sam James fumbled, forced by Jacob Morgenstern, recovered by TexTc Zech McPhearson , return for 56 yds — TTU win probability +29.8 pts (now 73%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TTU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8WVU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
- Q1 15:00WVU 4th & 8 at WVU 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 55.1% before the snapGo for it55.1%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.2%average punt
- Q1 9:29TTU 4th & 1 at WVU 1, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call46.6%59% to convertField goal46.3%−0.394% to makePunt45.4%−1.2average punt
- Q1 7:41TTU 4th & 3 at TTU 26, tiedClose callPunted · 46.1% before the snapGo for it46.3%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 6:30WVU 4th & 4 at TTU 38, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call53.6%48% to convertField goal53.3%−0.338% to makePunt53.3%−0.3average punt
- Q1 1:35WVU 4th & 5 at WVU 30, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.7% before the snapGo for it47.8%−0.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call48.0%average punt
- Q2 15:00TTU 4th & 2 at WVU 33, up 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call53.5%57% to convertField goal52.8%−0.749% to makePunt52.3%−1.1average punt
- Q2 9:00WVU 4th & 5 at TTU 24, down 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.2% before the snapGo for it45.6%−0.141% to convertField goalTheir call45.8%68% to makePunt40.4%−5.3average punt
- Q2 9:00TTU 4th & 10 at WVU 27, up 3Close callWent for it · 51.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call51.1%−0.629% to convertField goal51.7%62% to makePunt47.9%−3.7average punt
- Q2 0:35WVU 4th & 1 at WVU 46, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call33.9%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt32.9%−0.9average punt
- Q2 0:14WVU 4th & 1 at TTU 42, down 10Close callWent for it · 34.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call34.5%−0.470% to convertField goal34.9%30% to makePunt33.6%−1.2average punt
- Q3 10:05WVU 4th & 3 at WVU 42, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call34.7%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt34.3%−0.4average punt
- Q3 6:00TTU 4th & 10 at TTU 13, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 50.8% before the snapGo for it49.1%−3.328% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.4%average punt
- Q3 4:44WVU 4th & 6 at TTU 46, tiedClose callPunted · 50.8% before the snapGo for it52.0%40% to convertField goal48.8%−3.223% to makePuntTheir call51.7%−0.4average punt
- Q4 15:00TTU 4th & 2 at TTU 29, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 52.5% before the snapGo for it54.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.9%−2.0average punt
- Q4 11:16WVU 4th & 9 at WVU 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 47.9% before the snapGo for it46.7%−1.332% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call48.0%average punt
- Q4 11:01TTU 4th & 10 at TTU 15, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 51.6% before the snapGo for it45.9%−5.228% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call51.2%average punt
- Q4 8:44WVU 4th & 13 at WVU 45, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.2% before the snapGo for it15.2%−2.620% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.8%average punt
- Q4 0:50TTU 4th & 3 at TTU 44, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.9% before the snapGo for it94.8%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.8%average punt
- Q4 0:42WVU 4th & 5 at WVU 22, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.8%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt4.8%−2.0average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TTU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4WVU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 9:29TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call48.2%97% to makeGo for two48.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:41WVU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call52.8%97% to makeGo for two52.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:35TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call52.3%97% to makeGo for two52.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:36TTU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.5%97% to makeGo for two66.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:41WVU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call45.4%97% to makeGo for two45.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:05TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call65.0%97% to makeGo for two64.9%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 6:00WVU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call44.3%97% to makeGo for two44.1%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWVUDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 2 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+9
38.0%
Kolton McGhee punt for 51 yds , Adrian Frye returns for 9 yds to the TexTc 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 2TD10 plays · 69 yds · 4:0839% → 42%
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-6
38.5%
Henry Colombi pass complete to SaRodorick Thompson for a loss of 6 yards to the TexTc 25Similar
Q1 13:37
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+9
38.4%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Erik Ezukanma for 9 yds to the TexTc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
38.6%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Myles Price for 3 yds to the TexTc 45Similar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+3
38.6%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Myles Price for 3 yds to the TexTc 48Similar
Q1 13:37
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+44
38.6%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Myles Price for 44 yds to the WVirg 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 3TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4858% → 61%
TTUDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
WVUDrive 5DOWNS9 plays · 42 yds · 0:0059% → 60%
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
40.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 11 yds to the WVirg 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
40.6%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Ali Jennings for 12 yds to the WVirg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+8
40.3%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 8 yds to the TexTc 49Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+7
39.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 7 yds to the TexTc 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 6TD4 plays · 61 yds · 1:1143% → 48%
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
47.9%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 48 yds for a TD (Trey Wolff PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 7PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 0:0054% → 53%
Q1 1:35
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
46.6%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 40 yds , Adrian Frye returns for no gain to the TexTc 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 8DOWNS9 plays · 37 yds · 0:1348% → 48%
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+14
48.4%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, personal foul (Tony Fields II) to the TexTc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 36
-9
49.2%
Henry Colombi sacked by Dante Stills for a loss of 9 yards to the WVirg 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 45
+12
47.8%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Myles Price for 12 yds to the WVirg 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 9FG8 plays · 42 yds · 3:0252% → 54%
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+20
48.0%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 20 yds to the TexTc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
46.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Leddie Brown for 3 yds to the TexTc 43Similar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
45.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 5 yds to the TexTc 24Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 5
OPP 24
-10
46.3%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Leddie Brown for 24 yards to the TTU0, clock 10:15, PENALTY WVU holding (John Hughes) 10 yards to the TTU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 15
OPP 34
+9
47.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Reese Smith for 9 yds to the TexTc 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 10TD16 plays · 75 yds · 6:2447% → 64%
Q2 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
47.0%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 11 yds to the TexTc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
47.8%
Henry Colombi sacked by Darius Stills for a loss of 5 yards to the TexTc 31Similar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
49.4%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Myles Price for 6 yds to the WVirg 42Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+15
49.4%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the WVirg 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-10
49.9%
Colombi, Henry rush for 5 yards to the WVU22, PENALTY TTU holding (Carde, Ethan) 10 yards to the WVU37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 20
OPP 37
+4
48.6%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Erik Ezukanma for 4 yds to the WVirg 33Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 16
OPP 33
+4
48.7%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Xavier White for 4 yds to the WVirg 29Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 12
OPP 29
+2
48.4%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Myles Price for 2 yds to the WVirg 27Similar
Q2 9:00
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+14
47.1%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Erik Ezukanma for 14 yds to the WVirg 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
3RD & 8
OPP 11
+11
63.7%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Trey Cleveland for 11 yds for a TD (Trey Wolff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 11FG19 plays · 47 yds · 2:3638% → 43%
Q2 2:36
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
60.4%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sean Ryan for 4 yds to the WVirg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
61.3%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sam James for 4 yds to the WVirg 41Similar
Q2 2:36
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+5
60.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Leddie Brown for 5 yds to the WVirg 46Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+7
62.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Leddie Brown for 7 yds to the TexTc 44Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+2
61.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Leddie Brown for 2 yds to the TexTc 42Similar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+13
62.4%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Isaiah Esdale for 13 yds to the TexTc 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 12FUMBLE2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
60.9%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 1 yd Ja'Lynn Polk fumbled, forced by Jeffery Pooler Jr., recovered by WVirg Dante StillsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 13TD4 plays · 24 yds · 1:0745% → 58%
TTUDrive 14TD10 plays · 73 yds · 3:3651% → 70%
Q3 13:41
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+22
52.0%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Travis Koontz for 7 yds to the WVirg 40 for a 1ST down WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Alonzo Addae) to the WVirg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+4
53.9%
Henry Colombi pass complete to SaRodorick Thompson for 4 yds to the WVirg 36Similar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+20
54.9%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Erik Ezukanma for 20 yds to the WVirg 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 15TD11 plays · 65 yds · 4:0536% → 57%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
64.4%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sam James for 6 yds to the WVirg 41Similar
Q3 10:05
4TH & 3
OWN 42
+8
65.1%
Winston Wright Jr. run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
50
+38
61.6%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 38 yds to the TexTc 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-2
59.8%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sean Ryan for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 14Similar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 12
OPP 14
+11
62.2%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sam Brown for 7 yds to the TexTc 7 for a 1ST down TEXAS TECH Penalty, face mask (4 yards) (Tony Bradford Jr.) to the TexTc 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0052% → 50%
Q3 6:00
3RD & 12
OWN 11
+2
50.6%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 2 yds to the TexTc 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 17PUNT9 plays · 34 yds · 0:0052% → 53%
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
48.3%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Leddie Brown for 9 yds to the WVirg 29Similar
Q3 4:44
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+10
46.4%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Mike O'Laughlin for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
3RD & 6
OPP 46
0
44.4%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Ali Jennings, broken up by DaMarcus FieldsSimilar
Q3 4:44
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
47.2%
Kolton McGhee punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Adrian Frye at the TexTc 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 1:1553% → 53%
WVUDrive 19PUNT8 plays · 13 yds · 2:0851% → 50%
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
48.7%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton, broken up by DaMarcus FieldsSimilar
Q4 13:24
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
49.4%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Leddie Brown for 9 yds to the WVirg 44Similar
Q4 11:16
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
49.8%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Adrian Frye at the TexTc 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0053% → 50%
WVUDrive 21FUMBLE TD2 plays · 2 yds · 0:4957% → 27%
Q4 8:44
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+56
73.2%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sam James for a loss of 2 yards for a TD Sam James fumbled, forced by Jacob Morgenstern, recovered by TexTc Zech McPhearson , return for 56 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 22PUNT10 plays · 21 yds · 0:0020% → 18%
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
80.3%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 4 yds to the WVirg 28Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 6
OWN 28
-5
79.2%
Jarret Doege sacked by Eli Howard V for a loss of 5 yards to the WVirg 23Similar
Q4 8:44
3RD & 11
OWN 23
+13
82.0%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 13 yds to the WVirg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
78.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Leddie Brown for 12 yds to the WVirg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:44
4TH & 13
OWN 45
0
82.0%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Adrian Frye at the TexTc 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 23PUNT12 plays · 34 yds · 4:1789% → 96%
WVUDrive 24Uncategorized6 plays · 45 yds · 0:007% → 11%
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
93.2%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Reese Smith, broken up by Alex HoganSimilar
Q4 0:42
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+5
93.8%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Reese Smith for 5 yds to the WVirg 22Similar
Q4 0:42
4TH & 5
OWN 22
+24
93.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sean Ryan for 24 yds to the WVirg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+16
91.8%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sam James for 16 yds to the TexTc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
89.4%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Sam Brown, broken up by DaMarcus FieldsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FUMBLE · Q4 8:44
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sam James for a loss of 2 yards for a TD Sam James fumbled, forced by Jacob Morgenstern, recovered by TexTc Zech McPhearson , return for 56 yds
+29.8
TD · Q3 6:00
Leddie Brown run for 1 yd for a TD (Evan Staley KICK)
-17.1
TD · Q3 10:05
Tahj Brooks run for 5 yds for a TD (Trey Wolff KICK)
+15.4