Try the model
BAY

Baylor 16 at Texas 27

TEX
2020 · Week 8 · Oct 24, 2020 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playTEX scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:25 · Issac Power punt for 66 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 73Pregame prior+18.8Home team on offense+2.2Score differential+0.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:53: Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Joshua Moore for 3 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK) — TEX win probability +6.7 pts (now 86%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:25: Sam Ehlinger run for 1 yd for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK) — TEX win probability +7.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:20: Sam Ehlinger run for 9 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK) — TEX win probability +3.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:24: Charlie Brewer pass complete to John Lovett for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — BAY win probability +2.3 pts (now 4%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:37: Charlie Brewer pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 7 yds for a TD (John Mayers KICK) — BAY win probability +7.1 pts (now 11%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TEX made the numbers' call on 5 of 7BAY made the numbers' call on 4 of 9
  1. Q1 11:52BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:14TEX 4th & 6 at TEX 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.1%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:43BAY 4th & 22 at TEX 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−0.3
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:24TEX 4th & 2 at TEX 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.1%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:49BAY 4th & 4 at TEX 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.1%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    25.2%−2.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:10TEX 4th & 2 at BAY 23, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.9%−0.6
    70% to make
    Punt
    67.8%−3.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:09BAY 4th & 12 at TEX 30, tied
    Close callPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    28.2%
    56% to make
    PuntTheir call
    27.6%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:15TEX 4th & 5 at BAY 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.4%
    92% to make
    Punt
    66.8%−4.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:25BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 34, down 3
    Close callPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.4%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:34BAY 4th & 10 at BAY 49, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:19BAY 4th & 4 at BAY 28, down 17
    Close callPunted · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:12TEX 4th & 11 at TEX 35, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%−1.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:41BAY 4th & 14 at TEX 25, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%−1.1
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    2.4%−4.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:01TEX 4th & 18 at TEX 42, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%−1.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:19BAY 4th & 7 at BAY 25, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.4%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:55TEX 4th & 2 at BAY 17, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    95.9%−0.3
    80% to make
    Punt
    94.3%−1.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BAY made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 1:53TEX Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 10:25TEX Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 0:20TEX Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:24BAY Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    3.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:37BAY Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 2:5819% → 20%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
81.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to John Lovett for 3 yds to the Bayl 17Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+1
81.0%
John Lovett run for 1 yd to the Bayl 18Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 6
OWN 18
+17
80.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 17 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
80.7%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to R.J. SneedSimilar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
80.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 2 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q1 12:37
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+7
80.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 7 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
Q1 11:52
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
80.2%
Issac Power punt for 43 yds, fair catch by D'Shawn Jamison at the Texas 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3680% → 80%
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
80.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Kelvontay Dixon for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 12Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 11
OWN 12
+5
80.2%
Bijan Robinson run for 5 yds to the Texas 17Similar
Q1 10:21
3RD & 6
OWN 17
0
79.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:14
4TH & 6
OWN 17
0
79.7%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 19 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Texas 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3DOWNS
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:3021% → 21%
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-4
79.5%
Trestan Ebner pass complete to Gavin Holmes for a loss of 4 yards to the Texas 40Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 14
OPP 40
0
79.5%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to R.J. SneedSimilar
Q1 9:10
3RD & 14
OPP 40
-8
79.5%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Moro Ojomo for a loss of 8 yards to the Texas 48Similar
Q1 8:43
4TH & 22
OPP 48
0
79.4%
Issac Power punt for 33 yds, fair catch by D'Shawn Jamison at the Texas 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:1680% → 79%
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
79.5%
Bijan Robinson run for 5 yds to the Texas 20Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+4
79.4%
Bijan Robinson run for 4 yds to the Texas 24Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+5
79.2%
Sam Ehlinger run for 5 yds to the Texas 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
79.2%
Keaontay Ingram run for 5 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+3
79.4%
Keaontay Ingram run for 3 yds to the Texas 37Similar
Q1 7:05
3RD & 2
OWN 37
0
79.2%
Sam Ehlinger run for no gain to the Texas 37Similar
Q1 6:24
4TH & 2
OWN 37
0
78.7%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5FG
12 plays · 67 yds · 5:3121% → 25%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
78.6%
John Lovett run for 11 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
78.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 13 yds to the Texas 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
77.7%
John Lovett run for 5 yds to the Texas 42Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+9
77.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Josh Fleeks for 9 yds to the Texas 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
77.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 8 yds to the Texas 25Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+1
76.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 1 yd to the Texas 24Similar
Q1 3:22
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+3
76.8%
Charlie Brewer run for 3 yds to the Texas 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+11
76.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 11 yds to the Texas 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
75.7%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Tyquan Thornton, broken up by Josh ThompsonSimilar
Q1 2:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
75.6%
Charlie Brewer run for 6 yds to the Texas 4Similar
Q1 1:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
75.8%
Charlie Brewer run for no gain to the Texas 4Similar
Q1 0:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
75.4%
John Mayers 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 6FG
14 plays · 52 yds · 3:3076% → 77%
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
75.7%
Keaontay Ingram run for 1 yd to the Texas 26Similar
Q1 0:05
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
75.4%
Keaontay Ingram run for 10 yds to the Texas 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
75.7%
Keaontay Ingram run for 7 yds to the Texas 43Similar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+10
76.4%
Sam Ehlinger run for 10 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
76.5%
Keaontay Ingram run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 48Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 11
OPP 48
+5
76.1%
Bijan Robinson run for 5 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+12
76.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Brennan Eagles for 12 yds to the Bayl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
76.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Brennan Eagles for 4 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 6
OPP 27
0
76.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:16
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+4
75.8%
Keaontay Ingram run for 4 yds to the Bayl 23Similar
Q2 12:15
4TH & 2
OPP 23
-5
75.2%
TEXAS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 28Similar
Q2 12:15
4TH & 7
OPP 28
+5
75.0%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Bayl 23Similar
Q2 12:10
4TH & 2
OPP 23
+41
77.2%
Cameron Dicker 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 45 yds · 1:5125% → 25%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
75.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 20 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
73.9%
Brewer, Charlie pass incomplete to Sneed, R.J., PENALTY TEXAS pass interference (Green, Jalen) 15 yards to the TEXAS40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BAYLOR.Similar
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
73.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 12 yds to the Texas 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
72.9%
Charlie Brewer run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 29Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 11
OPP 29
-1
72.7%
Trestan Ebner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 30Similar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 12
OPP 30
0
73.5%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to R.J. Sneed, broken up by B.J. FosterSimilar
Q2 10:09
4TH & 12
OPP 30
0
74.8%
Issac Power punt for 30 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 8FG
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:4576% → 78%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-12
75.8%
Sam Ehlinger sacked by William Bradley-King for a loss of 12 yards to the Texas 8Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 22
OWN 8
+72
75.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Tarik Black for 72 yds to the Bayl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
78.2%
Sam Ehlinger run for 5 yds to the Bayl 15Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+1
78.0%
Sam Ehlinger run for 1 yd to the Bayl 14Similar
Q2 7:42
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+5
77.2%
Sam Ehlinger run for 5 yds to the Bayl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
77.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Brennan Eagles for 4 yds to the Bayl 5Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
77.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
76.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Jake SmithSimilar
Q2 6:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
77.9%
Cameron Dicker 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4223% → 22%
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
77.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 5 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
77.0%
John Lovett run for 4 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
76.7%
Charlie Brewer run for no gain to the Bayl 34Similar
Q2 4:25
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
77.6%
Issac Power punt for 66 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 10TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:2577% → 86%
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
76.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Malcolm Epps, broken up by Mark MiltonSimilar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
76.4%
Keaontay Ingram run for 2 yds to the Texas 22Similar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+10
75.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for 10 yds to the Texas 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+19
76.7%
Sam Ehlinger run for 19 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+42
78.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Joshua Moore for 42 yds to the Bayl 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
78.8%
Sam Ehlinger run for 4 yds to the Bayl 3Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
85.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Joshua Moore for 3 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 1:1616% → 15%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
84.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Josh Fleeks for 12 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
84.0%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 4 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
83.3%
Charlie Brewer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+8
83.7%
Charlie Brewer run for 8 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
83.0%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to R.J. SneedSimilar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
83.4%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to R.J. Sneed, broken up by D'Shawn JamisonSimilar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
83.9%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Tyquan ThorntonSimilar
Q2 0:34
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
84.6%
Issac Power punt for 41 yds, downed at the Texas 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
84.2%
Sam Ehlinger run for no gain to the Texas 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 13TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:3083% → 93%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
83.3%
Bijan Robinson run for 8 yds to the Texas 33Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
83.8%
Bijan Robinson run for 4 yds to the Texas 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
83.9%
Bijan Robinson run for 12 yds to the Texas 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
84.5%
Sam Ehlinger run for 7 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
Q3 13:12
2ND & 3
OPP 44
0
84.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Jake SmithSimilar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+16
84.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Brennan Eagles for 16 yds to the Bayl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
85.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Joshua Moore, broken up by Kalon BarnesSimilar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+1
85.3%
Sam Ehlinger run for 1 yd to the Bayl 27Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+14
84.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jake Smith for 14 yds to the Bayl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
85.6%
Ehlinger, Sam pass incomplete to Woodard, Al'Vonte, PENALTY BAYLOR pass interference 11 yards to the BAYLOR2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXAS.Similar
Q3 11:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
85.6%
Keaontay Ingram run for 1 yd to the Bayl 1Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
85.7%
Keaontay Ingram run for no gain to the Bayl 1Similar
Q3 10:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.9%
Sam Ehlinger run for 1 yd for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:549% → 8%
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
91.3%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Tyquan ThorntonSimilar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+6
91.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 6 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q3 9:28
3RD & 4
OWN 28
0
91.3%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Gavin HolmesSimilar
Q3 9:19
4TH & 4
OWN 28
0
91.8%
Issac Power punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Texas 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 2:0793% → 93%
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
93.4%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Texas 31Similar
Q3 9:15
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+1
93.2%
Roschon Johnson run for 1 yd to the Texas 32Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 14
OWN 32
+7
93.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Roschon Johnson for 7 yds to the Texas 39Similar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 7
OWN 39
-4
93.7%
Sam Ehlinger sacked by Terrel Bernard for a loss of 4 yards to the Texas 35Similar
Q3 7:12
4TH & 11
OWN 35
+14
93.1%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 50 yds , Trestan Ebner returns for 14 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16MISSED FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 3:318% → 6%
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+10
92.5%
TEXAS Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
92.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 7 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+8
92.2%
Craig Williams run for 8 yds to the Texas 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
92.4%
Craig Williams run for 8 yds to the Texas 38Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+7
92.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Ben Sims for 7 yds to the Texas 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+10
91.9%
Trestan Ebner run for 10 yds to the Texas 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
91.7%
Trestan Ebner run for 3 yds to the Texas 18Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 7
OPP 18
-2
92.0%
Charlie Brewer run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 20Similar
Q3 4:25
3RD & 9
OPP 20
-5
93.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Josh Fleeks for a loss of 5 yards to the Texas 25Similar
Q3 3:41
4TH & 14
OPP 25
+43
94.0%
John Mayers 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 17TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 3:2094% → 99%
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
94.4%
Keaontay Ingram run for 8 yds to the Texas 33Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
94.7%
Keaontay Ingram run for 6 yds to the Texas 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+47
95.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jared Wiley for 47 yds to the Bayl 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
95.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Kelvontay Dixon for 4 yds to the Bayl 10Similar
Q3 1:05
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+1
95.5%
Keaontay Ingram run for 1 yd to the Bayl 9Similar
Q3 0:20
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+9
98.6%
Sam Ehlinger run for 9 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:462% → 4%
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
98.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 13 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
98.4%
Craig Williams run for 1 yd to the Bayl 39Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+13
98.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Josh Fleeks for 13 yds to the Texas 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+14
98.6%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 14 yds to the Texas 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
98.5%
BAYLOR Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Texas 39Similar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 15
OPP 39
+11
98.7%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 11 yds to the Texas 28Similar
Q4 12:33
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+21
98.5%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Ben Sims for 21 yds to the Texas 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
98.6%
Charlie Brewer run for 4 yds to the Texas 3Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
98.6%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Tyquan Thornton, broken up by DeMarvion OvershownSimilar
Q4 11:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
96.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to John Lovett for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 19INT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2497% → 98%
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
97.3%
Bijan Robinson run for 2 yds to the Texas 27Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
97.4%
Bijan Robinson run for 2 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-32
97.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass intercepted JT Woods return for 32 yds to the Texas 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 2:084% → 11%
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
96.1%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 8 yds to the Texas 17Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+6
96.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 6 yds to the Texas 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
96.3%
Charlie Brewer run for 6 yds to the Texas 5Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 4
OPP 5
-2
96.3%
Trestan Ebner run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 7Similar
Q4 7:37
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+7
89.2%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 7 yds for a TD (John Mayers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 3:2992% → 94%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
91.9%
Keaontay Ingram run for 2 yds to the Texas 27Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+23
92.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jared Wiley for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
50
+8
93.4%
Keaontay Ingram run for 8 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 2
OPP 42
0
94.1%
Keaontay Ingram run for no gain to the Bayl 42Similar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 2
OPP 43
-16
94.0%
Joshua Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 43 TEXAS Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Texas 42Similar
Q4 4:01
4TH & 18
OWN 42
-2
93.6%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 47 yds , Trestan Ebner returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22DOWNS
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:366% → 5%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+13
93.8%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 13 yds to the Bayl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
94.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 5 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+3
94.3%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to John Lovett for 3 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q4 2:26
3RD & 2
OWN 30
0
94.5%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Tyquan ThorntonSimilar
Q4 2:25
4TH & 2
OWN 30
-5
94.4%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 25Similar
Q4 2:19
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
95.1%
Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to R.J. Sneed, broken up by Chris BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 23END OF 4TH QUARTER
9 plays · 17 yds · 1:4396% → 98%
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
95.9%
Bijan Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 26Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+6
96.5%
Bijan Robinson run for 6 yds to the Bayl 20Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+3
97.2%
Bijan Robinson run for 3 yds to the Bayl 17Similar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 2
OPP 17
+13
97.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Cade Brewer for 13 yds to the Bayl 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
97.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 6Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
97.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:25
Sam Ehlinger run for 1 yd for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)
+7.2
TD · Q4 7:37
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 7 yds for a TD (John Mayers KICK)
-7.1
TD · Q2 1:53
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Joshua Moore for 3 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)
+6.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com