2020 · Week 7 · Oct 17, 2020 · Milan Puskar Stadium
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Win probability · WVU
modelWVU aheadKU aheadconfidence bandkey playWVU scoreKU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:59 · Tyler Sumpter punt for 37 yds, downed at the Kans 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 4:53: Jarret Doege pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 33 yds for a TD (Evan Staley KICK) — WVU win probability +1.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
- TD · Q2 3:25: Jarret Doege pass complete to Leddie Brown for 6 yds for a TD (Evan Staley KICK) — WVU win probability +2.7 pts (now 87%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:16: Evan Staley 33 yd FG GOOD — WVU win probability +1.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:37: Leddie Brown run for 87 yds for a TD (Evan Staley KICK) — WVU win probability +7.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:55: Jarret Doege pass complete to Sam James for 8 yds for a TD (Evan Staley KICK) — WVU win probability +3.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WVU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9KU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
- Q1 11:41KU 4th & 8 at WVU 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.0% before the snapGo for it9.9%−<0.133% to convertField goalTheir call9.9%70% to makePunt9.6%−0.4average punt
- Q1 11:27WVU 4th & 5 at WVU 11, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.8% before the snapGo for it89.8%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.9%average punt
- Q1 9:21WVU 4th & 7 at WVU 41, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.4% before the snapGo for it88.4%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.5%average punt
- Q1 7:22KU 4th & 5 at KU 15, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.6% before the snapGo for it12.5%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.6%average punt
- Q1 3:59WVU 4th & 18 at KU 38, down 3Close callPunted · 86.7% before the snapGo for it86.6%−0.213% to convertField goal86.7%38% to makePuntTheir call86.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 15:00KU 4th & 4 at KU 31, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.8% before the snapGo for it14.9%−0.248% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.1%average punt
- Q2 10:05WVU 4th & 11 at KU 27, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.3% before the snapGo for it81.8%−0.526% to convertField goalTheir call82.3%62% to makePunt80.0%−2.3average punt
- Q2 10:05KU 4th & 7 at WVU 44, up 3Close callPunted · 18.0% before the snapGo for it17.8%37% to convertField goal17.2%−0.627% to makePuntTheir call17.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 1:37WVU 4th & 6 at KU 30, up 4Close callWent for it · 83.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call83.2%−0.140% to convertField goal83.3%56% to makePunt82.5%−0.8average punt
- Q2 1:15KU 4th & 6 at KU 34, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snapGo for it16.2%−0.440% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.5%average punt
- Q2 0:16WVU 4th & 10 at KU 16, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.7% before the snapGo for it81.9%−0.927% to convertField goalTheir call82.8%81% to makePunt80.3%−2.5average punt
- Q3 14:55KU 4th & 1 at KU 30, down 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 13.6% before the snapGo for it14.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.2%−1.4average punt
- Q3 10:32KU 4th & 14 at KU 33, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.0% before the snapGo for it12.9%−1.918% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.8%average punt
- Q3 8:32WVU 4th & 11 at WVU 40, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.3% before the snapGo for it84.8%−1.026% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.8%average punt
- Q3 6:40KU 4th & 12 at KU 34, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.7% before the snapGo for it13.8%−1.823% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.6%average punt
- Q3 3:31KU 4th & 24 at KU 11, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.9% before the snapGo for it5.8%−1.96% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.6%average punt
- Q4 14:55KU 4th & 16 at KU 19, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it0.9%−0.614% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.5%average punt
- Q4 12:51WVU 4th & 6 at KU 47, up 21Close callPunted · 98.8% before the snapGo for it98.9%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 10:53KU 4th & 4 at KU 31, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it1.0%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%average punt
- Q4 7:38WVU 4th & 1 at KU 12, up 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.1%71% to convertField goal98.8%−0.386% to makePunt98.0%−1.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WVU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5KU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 9:21KU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call11.5%97% to makeGo for two11.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:53WVU Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.4%97% to makeGo for two87.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:25WVU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.8%97% to makeGo for two83.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:37WVU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.8%97% to makeGo for two92.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:55WVU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.9%97% to makeGo for two98.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:00WVU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWVUDrive 1FUMBLE4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
93.0%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to T.J. Simmons, broken up by Ricky ThomasSimilar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 15
OWN 28
+12
93.0%
Jarret Doege pass complete to T.J. Simmons for 12 yds T.J. Simmons fumbled, forced by Denzel Feaster, recovered by Kans Duece MayberrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 2FG8 plays · 18 yds · 2:247% → 8%
Q1 14:05
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+12
92.8%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 12 yds to the WVirg 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
92.8%
Miles Kendrick pass incomplete to Stephon Robinson Jr., broken up by Josh Chandler-SemedoSimilar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+2
92.8%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 2 yds to the WVirg 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q1 11:27
2ND & 7
OWN 9
+5
92.1%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Mike O'Laughlin for 5 yds to the WVirg 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 4TD2 plays · 45 yds · 0:329% → 9%
WVUDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
KUDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 7:22
4TH & 5
OWN 15
+15
89.9%
Kyle Thompson punt for 35 yds , Alec Sinkfield returns for 15 yds to the WVirg 30 WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, illegal block (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 7TD4 plays · 50 yds · 1:0089% → 90%
Q1 5:53
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+15
89.3%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Sean Ryan, PENALTY KU pass interference (Prunty, Karon) 15 yards to the KU33, 1ST DOWN WVU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
90.3%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 33 yds for a TD (Evan Staley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 8INT3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
WVUDrive 9PUNT4 plays · -8 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
KUDrive 10PUNT11 plays · 30 yds · 2:5311% → 12%
Q1 2:53
2ND & 9
OWN 15
-5
89.0%
Pooka Williams Jr. run for 5 yds to the Kans 20 KANSAS Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Kans 10Similar
Q1 2:53
2ND & 14
OWN 10
+15
89.0%
Grimm, Luke rush for loss of 5 yards to the KU5 (Tony Fields II), PENALTY WVU illegal helmet contact (Tony Fields II) 15 yards to the KU25, 1ST DOWN KU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.0%
Miles Kendrick pass incomplete to Pooka Williams Jr., broken up by Dante StillsSimilar
Q1 2:53
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-1
89.0%
Miles Kendrick sacked by Jeffery Pooler Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the Kans 19Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+7
87.7%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Pooka Williams Jr. for 7 yds to the Kans 26Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+5
87.8%
Thompson,Kyle punt 19 yards to the KU45, out-of-bounds, PENALTY WVU roughing the kicker (Sam Brown) 5 yards to the KU31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+47
87.7%
Kyle Thompson punt for 47 yds , Alec Sinkfield returns for a loss of 1 yard to the WVirg 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 11MISSED FG12 plays · 52 yds · 4:0787% → 85%
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
88.0%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton, broken up by Karon PruntySimilar
Q2 14:12
3RD & 13
OPP 42
+16
87.4%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Alec Sinkfield for 16 yds to the Kans 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 9
OPP 25
-10
88.3%
Leddie Brown rush for 5 yards to the KU20 (Ferguson,Davon), PENALTY WVU holding 10 yards to the KU35, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 12PUNT6 plays · 29 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
WVUDrive 13TD12 plays · 91 yds · 3:4182% → 87%
Q2 7:06
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+30
82.1%
Leddie Brown run for 15 yds to the WVirg 24 for a 1ST down KANSAS Penalty, targeting (Denzel Feaster) to the WVirg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
84.0%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Ali Jennings, PENALTY KU pass interference (Jones,Elijah) 15 yards to the KU34, 1ST DOWN WVU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
84.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Ali Jennings for a loss of 1 yard to the Kans 35Similar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 14
OPP 21
+14
84.3%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Leddie Brown for 14 yds to the Kans 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
87.2%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Leddie Brown for 6 yds for a TD (Evan Staley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 14INT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
WVUDrive 15DOWNS5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0787% → 85%
Q2 1:37
4TH & 6
OPP 30
0
85.3%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Sean Ryan, broken up by Elijah Jones WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, illegal motion ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 0:1616% → 14%
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
84.0%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Andrew Parchment for a loss of 1 yard to the Kans 29Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 11
OWN 29
+5
86.1%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Pooka Williams Jr. for 5 yds to the Kans 34Similar
Q2 1:15
4TH & 6
OWN 34
+4
85.8%
Kyle Thompson punt for 39 yds , Alec Sinkfield returns for 4 yds to the WVirg 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 17FG8 plays · 53 yds · 0:4985% → 88%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-4
85.4%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Leddie Brown for a loss of 4 yards to the WVirg 27Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 14
OWN 27
+23
85.0%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sean Ryan for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
50
+8
86.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 8 yds to the Kans 42Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+26
86.8%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Leddie Brown for 11 yds to the Kans 31 for a 1ST down KANSAS Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the Kans 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 10
OPP 16
0
86.4%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Ali Jennings, broken up by Elijah Jones WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 18END OF HALF2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q3 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+4
87.3%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Takulve Williams for 4 yds to the Kans 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 20INT7 plays · 47 yds · 0:0088% → 89%
Q3 13:14
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+9
87.8%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Leddie Brown for 9 yds to the WVirg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+17
88.1%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 17 yds to the Kans 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+16
88.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 16 yds to the Kans 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-11
88.8%
Jarret Doege pass intercepted Malcolm Lee return for 11 yds to the Kans 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 21PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q3 10:32
3RD & 7
OWN 40
-7
85.9%
Miles Kendrick sacked by Jared Bartlett for a loss of 7 yards to the Kans 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 22PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
87.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Mike O'Laughlin for 8 yds to the WVirg 31Similar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+10
88.1%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 10 yds to the WVirg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
3RD & 10
OWN 41
-15
87.4%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Sean Ryan) to the WVirg 26Similar
Q3 8:32
4TH & 11
OWN 40
0
86.5%
Kolton McGhee punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Kwamie Lassiter II at the Kans 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 23PUNT7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
WVUDrive 24TD3 plays · 96 yds · 0:4887% → 94%
KUDrive 25PUNT5 plays · -14 yds · 0:007% → 6%
WVUDrive 26TD4 plays · 48 yds · 1:3496% → 99%
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+26
95.8%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 26 yds to the Kans 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
95.8%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 11 yds to the Kans 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+8
98.9%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sam James for 8 yds for a TD (Evan Staley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 27PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
98.8%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Pooka Williams Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the Kans 20Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 14
OWN 21
-2
98.8%
Miles Kendrick sacked by Jeffery Pooler Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the Kans 19Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
98.8%
Kyle Thompson punt for 43 yds , Alec Sinkfield returns for no gain to the WVirg 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 28PUNT5 plays · 15 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
99.1%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Reese Smith for 11 yds to the WVirg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:51
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+1
99.1%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Alec Sinkfield for 1 yd to the Kans 47Similar
Q4 12:51
3RD & 6
OPP 47
0
99.1%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Reese Smith, broken up by Kyle MayberrySimilar
Q4 12:51
4TH & 6
OPP 47
0
99.0%
Kolton McGhee punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Kwamie Lassiter II at the Kans 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 29PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 0:001% → 1%
WVUDrive 30TD9 plays · 65 yds · 5:3899% → 100%
Q4 7:38
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+39
99.3%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Reese Smith for 39 yds to the Kans 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 32END OF GAME4 plays · 10 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
99.5%
Avarius Sparrow run for 6 yds to the WVirg 24 KANSAS Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:37
Leddie Brown run for 87 yds for a TD (Evan Staley KICK)
+7.1
TD · Q4 14:55
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sam James for 8 yds for a TD (Evan Staley KICK)
+3.1
TD · Q2 3:25
Jarret Doege pass complete to Leddie Brown for 6 yds for a TD (Evan Staley KICK)
+2.7