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TCU

TCU 33 at Texas 31

TEX
2020 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2020 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadTCU aheadconfidence bandkey playTEX scoreTCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGFGTDFGTDTDSAFETYEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Max Duggan run for a loss of 15 yards for a SAFETY
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:01: Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Brennan Eagles for 45 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK) — TEX win probability +5.6 pts (now 77%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:55: Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Roschon Johnson for 7 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK) — TEX win probability +13.4 pts (now 65%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. FG · Q4 13:36: Griffin Kell 28 yd FG GOOD — TCU win probability +8.4 pts (now 61%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:56: Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Malcolm Epps for 7 yds for a TD (K. Ingram Run For Two-point Conversion) — TEX win probability +25.9 pts (now 78%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:01: Max Duggan run for 26 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK) — TCU win probability +42.9 pts (now 81%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TEX made the numbers' call on 5 of 7TCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00TEX 4th & 10 at TEX 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.6%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:04TCU 4th & 8 at TEX 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    23.6%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    23.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:14TEX 4th & 9 at TEX 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:01TCU 4th & 10 at TEX 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    28.3%−<0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.2%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:44TEX 4th & 12 at TEX 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.5%−1.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:28TCU 4th & 10 at TEX 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−0.9
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.7%
    88% to make
    Punt
    29.3%−5.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:55TCU 4th & 5 at TEX 15, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%−0.9
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.3%
    83% to make
    Punt
    33.3%−6.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:11TCU 4th & 14 at TEX 31, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%−2.1
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.1%
    54% to make
    Punt
    44.5%−1.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:55TEX 4th & 2 at TCU 7, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    44.7%−2.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    33.9%−12.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:55TCU 4th & 9 at TCU 26, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%−3.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:43TEX 4th & 4 at TEX 29, down 2
    Close callPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.7%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:21TEX 4th & 15 at TCU 41, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%−2.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    57.0%−1.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:36TCU 4th & 6 at TEX 10, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−1.0
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.1%
    88% to make
    Punt
    30.3%−19.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:56TCU 4th & 11 at TCU 38, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%−2.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:23TEX 4th & 2 at TEX 16, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.9%−1.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 3 of 4TCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 4:01TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:21TEX Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:22TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:01TEX Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:55TEX Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:56TEX Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    67.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    67.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:01TCU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TEXDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
79.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
79.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
79.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 33
+24
79.7%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 50 yds , Jd Spielman returns for 24 yds to the TCU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
79.4%
Max Duggan pass complete to Dylan Thomas for 8 yds to the TCU 49Similar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+9
79.3%
Max Duggan run for 9 yds to the Texas 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
79.3%
Emari Demercado run for 4 yds to the Texas 38Similar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 6
OPP 38
0
79.3%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Emari Demercado, broken up by Juwan MitchellSimilar
Q1 14:04
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+5
79.4%
TEXAS Penalty, Defensive offside (Juwan Mitchell) to the Texas 33Similar
Q1 14:04
3RD & 1
OPP 33
-2
79.3%
Max Duggan run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 35Similar
Q1 14:04
4TH & 3
OPP 35
-5
79.4%
TCU Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Texas 40Similar
Q1 14:04
4TH & 8
OPP 40
+34
79.4%
Jordy Sandy punt for 29 yds TEXAS Penalty, personal foul (5 Yards) to the Texas 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 1 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-5
78.7%
Sam Ehlinger run for a loss of 5 yards to the Texas 1Similar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 15
OWN 1
0
78.6%
TEXAS Penalty, false start ( Yards) to the Texas 1Similar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 15
OWN 1
+5
78.6%
TCU Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Texas 6Similar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+5
78.6%
Keaontay Ingram run for 5 yds to the Texas 11Similar
Q1 11:14
3RD & 5
OWN 11
-5
78.5%
Ehlinger,Sam pass complete to Ingram,Keaontay for 47 yards to the TCU42 (Hod-Tomlinson), PENALTY UT ineligible downfield on pass (Eagles,Brennan) 5 yards to the UT6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:14
3RD & 10
OWN 6
+6
78.5%
Sam Ehlinger run for 6 yds to the Texas 12Similar
Q1 11:14
4TH & 4
OWN 12
-5
78.5%
TEXAS Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Texas 7Similar
Q1 11:14
4TH & 9
OWN 7
+17
78.4%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 48 yds , Jd Spielman returns for 17 yds to the TCU 24 TCU Penalty, illegal block (19 Yards) to the TCU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4TD
11 plays · 67 yds · 4:0822% → 28%
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
77.6%
Darwin Barlow run for 12 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
77.3%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 1 yd to the TCU 46Similar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+8
77.3%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 8 yds to the Texas 46Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+7
77.2%
Darwin Barlow run for 7 yds to the Texas 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
77.2%
Darwin Barlow run for 4 yds to the Texas 35Similar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 6
OPP 35
-1
77.0%
Taye Barber run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 36Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+9
77.3%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 9 yds to the Texas 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
77.0%
Max Duggan pass complete to Daimarqua Foster for 11 yds to the Texas 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+15
77.0%
Max Duggan run for 15 yds to the Texas 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
77.1%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
72.1%
Darwin Barlow run for 1 yd for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 5TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 3:4073% → 77%
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
73.3%
Sam Ehlinger run for 5 yds to the Texas 30Similar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-10
73.5%
Ehlinger,Sam rush for 3 yards to the UT33 (Mathis, Ochaun;Wallow, Garret), PENALTY UT holding (Okafor,Denzel) 10 yards to the UT20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
73.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:01
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-10
72.9%
Ehlinger,Sam pass complete to Smith,Jake for 34 yards to the TCU46 (Daniels, Noah), PENALTY UT pass interference (Smith,Jake) 10 yards to the UT10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:01
3RD & 25
OWN 10
+52
72.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jared Wiley for 52 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
74.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
74.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:01
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+12
74.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Tarik Black for 12 yds to the TCU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+10
74.8%
Ehlinger,Sam pass incomplete to Smith,Jake, PENALTY TCU pass interference (Washington, A.) 10 yards to the TCU16, 1ST DOWN UT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
74.8%
Roschon Johnson run for 9 yds to the TCU 7Similar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 1
OPP 7
+2
74.8%
Sam Ehlinger run for 2 yds to the TCU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
74.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Tarik Black, broken up by Tre'Vius Hodges-TomlinsonSimilar
Q1 0:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
77.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jake Smith for 5 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 0:5925% → 32%
Q1 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
74.8%
Daimarqua Foster run for 4 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q1 0:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-5
74.5%
TCU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TCU 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+50
74.7%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 50 yds to the Texas 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
73.0%
Duggan, Max pass incomplete to Barber, Taye, PENALTY UT pass interference (Adimora,Chris) 15 yards to the UT11, 1ST DOWN TCU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
73.0%
Daimarqua Foster run for 6 yds to the Texas 5Similar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+5
68.1%
Max Duggan run for 5 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 7TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 1:1270% → 77%
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
70.2%
Sam Ehlinger run for no gain to the Texas 37Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
70.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Joshua MooreSimilar
Q2 14:13
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+18
69.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jake Smith for 18 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
76.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Brennan Eagles for 45 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 38 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
74.3%
Max Duggan pass complete to Zach Evans for 6 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+20
73.8%
Max Duggan pass complete to Jd Spielman for 20 yds to the Texas 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
72.9%
Max Duggan pass complete to Artayvious Lynn for 3 yds to the Texas 46Similar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+9
72.9%
Max Duggan run for 9 yds to the Texas 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
72.9%
Max Duggan run for 2 yds to the Texas 35Similar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 8
OPP 35
-2
72.5%
Darwin Barlow run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 37Similar
Q2 13:01
3RD & 10
OPP 37
0
73.3%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:01
4TH & 10
OPP 37
0
74.3%
Jordy Sandy punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 2:0375% → 72%
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
74.7%
Roschon Johnson run for 9 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q2 9:47
2ND & 1
OWN 29
0
75.6%
Roschon Johnson run for no gain to the Texas 29Similar
Q2 9:47
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
74.5%
Sam Ehlinger run for 2 yds to the Texas 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
75.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Jake SmithSimilar
Q2 9:47
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-2
74.9%
Keaontay Ingram run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 29Similar
Q2 9:47
3RD & 12
OWN 29
0
74.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Brennan EaglesSimilar
Q2 7:44
4TH & 12
OWN 29
+1
71.6%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 52 yds , Jd Spielman returns for 1 yd to the TCU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10FG
18 plays · 70 yds · 6:0329% → 38%
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
70.6%
Kendre Miller run for 2 yds to the TCU 22Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+7
70.8%
Taye Barber run for 7 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q2 7:31
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+17
70.5%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 17 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
68.8%
Kendre Miller run for 3 yds to the TCU 49Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+5
68.7%
Max Duggan run for 5 yds to the Texas 46Similar
Q2 7:31
3RD & 2
OPP 46
-9
68.8%
Foster, D. rush for 8 yards to the UT38 (Brown,Chris), PENALTY TCU holding (Myers, Austin) 9 yards to the TCU45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:31
3RD & 11
OWN 45
+15
70.3%
Duggan, Max pass incomplete to Hod-Tomlinson (Green,Jalen), PENALTY UT roughing passer (Ossai,Joseph) 15 yards to the UT40, 1ST DOWN TCU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
68.5%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Daimarqua FosterSimilar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+9
68.6%
Max Duggan run for 9 yds to the Texas 31Similar
Q2 7:31
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+12
68.4%
Kendre Miller run for 12 yds to the Texas 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
67.5%
Kendre Miller run for 6 yds to the Texas 13Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+6
67.5%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 6 yds to the Texas 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
67.5%
Kendre Miller run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 8Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
62.4%
Jd Spielman run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 10Similar
Q2 1:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
64.0%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
61.9%
Griffin Kell 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 11INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-37
61.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass intercepted La'Kendrick Van Zandt return for 37 yds to the TEXAS 38 TCU Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (La'Kendrick Van Zandt) to the Texas 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:2142% → 45%
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
57.7%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 5 yds to the Texas 15Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 5
OPP 15
0
57.7%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Jd SpielmanSimilar
Q2 1:16
3RD & 5
OPP 15
0
58.9%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:55
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+32
54.7%
Griffin Kell 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.0%
Keaontay Ingram run for no gain to the Texas 25Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
57.7%
Keaontay Ingram run for no gain to the Texas 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14FG
8 plays · 39 yds · 2:4944% → 49%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
56.5%
Kendre Miller run for 15 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+28
54.7%
Kendre Miller run for 28 yds to the Texas 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-10
53.8%
Duggan, Max pass complete to Conwright, B. for 7 yards to the UT20 (Jamison,D'Shawn), PENALTY TCU holding 10 yards to the UT37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 37
0
54.6%
Kendre Miller run for no gain to the Texas 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 20
OPP 37
+3
54.8%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 3 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 17
OPP 34
+3
55.9%
Darwin Barlow run for 3 yds to the Texas 31Similar
Q3 12:11
4TH & 14
OPP 31
+49
51.0%
Griffin Kell 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 15TD
11 plays · 87 yds · 2:1650% → 65%
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
50.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jake Smith for 4 yds to the Texas 17Similar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+5
50.5%
Keaontay Ingram run for 5 yds to the Texas 22Similar
Q3 12:11
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+36
50.2%
Sam Ehlinger run for 36 yds to the TCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
54.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jake Smith for 12 yds to the TCU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
55.4%
TCU Penalty, sideline interference (15 Yards) to the TCU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
55.4%
Keaontay Ingram run for 3 yds to the TCU 12Similar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 7
OPP 12
0
55.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Tarik BlackSimilar
Q3 12:11
3RD & 7
OPP 12
0
53.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Tarik BlackSimilar
Q3 12:11
4TH & 7
OPP 12
+5
51.7%
TCU Penalty, Defensive offside (La'Kendrick Van Zandt) to the TCU 7Similar
Q3 9:55
4TH & 2
OPP 7
+7
65.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Roschon Johnson for 7 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 0:0038% → 36%
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-11
61.7%
Davis, Derius rush for 19 yards to the TCU44 (Foster,B.J.;Sterns,Caden), PENALTY TCU personal foul (Avila, Esteban) 11 yards to the TCU14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:55
1ST & 21
OWN 14
+3
62.0%
Zach Evans run for 3 yds to the TCU 17Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 18
OWN 17
-5
62.3%
TCU Penalty, false start (Austin Myers) to the TCU 12Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 23
OWN 12
+6
62.3%
Max Duggan run for 6 yds to the TCU 18Similar
Q3 9:55
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+8
63.4%
Max Duggan pass complete to Darwin Barlow for 8 yds to the TCU 26Similar
Q3 9:55
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
64.1%
Jordy Sandy punt for 51 yds, downed at the Texas 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0062% → 60%
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
62.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+6
61.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jake Smith for 6 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q3 7:43
3RD & 4
OWN 29
0
61.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Jake SmithSimilar
Q3 7:43
4TH & 4
OWN 29
+15
59.9%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 45 yds , Jd Spielman returns for 15 yds to the TCU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 18FUMBLE
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:0043% → 42%
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
56.7%
Max Duggan run for no gain to the TCU 41Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+1
57.5%
Kendre Miller run for 1 yd to the TCU 42Similar
Q3 6:37
3RD & 9
OWN 42
-6
58.2%
Max Duggan sacked by Joseph Ossai for a loss of 6 yards to the TCU 36 Max Duggan fumbled, recovered by Texas T'Vondre Sweat , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0065% → 59%
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
65.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 37Similar
Q3 5:21
2ND & 11
OPP 37
-5
65.0%
Ehlinger,Sam pass complete to Woodard,Al'Vont for 26 yards to the TCU11 (Jackson, Mark), PENALTY UT ineligible downfield on pass (Smith,Jake) 5 yards to the TCU42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:21
2ND & 16
OPP 42
0
62.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:21
3RD & 16
OPP 42
+1
61.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for 1 yd to the TCU 41Similar
Q3 5:21
4TH & 15
OPP 41
0
58.9%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 34 yds, downed at the TCU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 20FG
11 plays · 83 yds · 4:3944% → 61%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
56.4%
Daimarqua Foster run for 5 yds to the TCU 12Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 5
OWN 12
+3
56.1%
Daimarqua Foster run for 3 yds to the TCU 15Similar
Q3 3:15
3RD & 2
OWN 15
+8
57.4%
Max Duggan pass complete to Blair Conwright for 8 yds to the TCU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
55.7%
Daimarqua Foster run for 2 yds to the TCU 25Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+11
55.8%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 11 yds to the TCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
54.3%
Max Duggan run for 16 yds to the Texas 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+34
52.0%
Max Duggan pass complete to Blair Conwright for 34 yds to the Texas 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
45.7%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+6
45.7%
Jd Spielman run for 6 yds to the Texas 8Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 8
-2
47.6%
Max Duggan run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 10Similar
Q4 13:36
4TH & 6
OPP 10
+28
39.2%
Griffin Kell 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 21TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:4044% → 78%
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
44.0%
Roschon Johnson run for 5 yds to the Texas 30Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+40
44.8%
Roschon Johnson run for 40 yds to the TCU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
51.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
51.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Brenden Schooler for no gain to the TCU 30Similar
Q4 13:36
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+11
48.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jared Wiley for 11 yds to the TCU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
51.5%
Keaontay Ingram run for 4 yds to the TCU 15Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+8
51.5%
Keaontay Ingram run for 8 yds to the TCU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
51.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Brennan EaglesSimilar
Q4 13:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
51.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Brennan EaglesSimilar
Q4 9:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
77.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Malcolm Epps for 7 yds for a TD (K. Ingram Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0030% → 28%
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
70.3%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 14 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
68.0%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Kendre MillerSimilar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-1
68.6%
Max Duggan run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 38Similar
Q4 9:56
3RD & 11
OWN 38
0
70.7%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:56
4TH & 11
OWN 38
0
72.3%
Jordy Sandy punt for 54 yds, downed at the Texas 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0073% → 71%
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
73.4%
Keaontay Ingram run for 1 yd to the Texas 9Similar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+3
73.1%
Sam Ehlinger run for 3 yds to the Texas 12Similar
Q4 8:23
3RD & 6
OWN 12
+4
72.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jake Smith for 4 yds to the Texas 16Similar
Q4 8:23
4TH & 2
OWN 16
+14
71.2%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 41 yds , Jd Spielman returns for 14 yds to the Texas 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 24TD
5 plays · 43 yds · 2:1536% → 81%
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
63.7%
Max Duggan pass complete to Daimarqua Foster for 3 yds to the Texas 40Similar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+6
63.7%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 6 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q4 6:16
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+3
63.1%
Max Duggan run for 3 yds to the Texas 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
61.9%
Daimarqua Foster run for 5 yds to the Texas 26Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+26
19.0%
Max Duggan run for 26 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 25FUMBLE
6 plays · 74 yds · 0:0034% → 43%
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
33.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Cade Brewer for 1 yd to the Texas 26Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
33.1%
Ehlinger,Sam pass complete to Ingram,Keaontay for 2 yards to the UT28 (Moehrig, Trevon), PENALTY TCU 12 men on the field 5 yards to the UT31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+52
36.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for 52 yds to the TCU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+16
42.7%
Keaontay Ingram run for 16 yds to the TCU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
42.7%
Keaontay Ingram run for no gain to the TCU 1 Keaontay Ingram fumbled, forced by Garret Wallow, recovered by TCU George Ellis IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 26SF
11 plays · -1 yds · 2:3282% → 92%
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
18.0%
Darwin Barlow run for 2 yds to the TCU 3Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+1
17.3%
Kendre Miller run for 1 yd to the TCU 4Similar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 7
OWN 4
+9
18.4%
Taye Barber run for 9 yds to the TCU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
15.8%
Darwin Barlow run for 1 yd to the TCU 14Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+2
10.6%
Daimarqua Foster run for 2 yds to the TCU 16Similar
Q4 1:38
3RD & 7
OWN 16
-1
12.0%
Daimarqua Foster run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 15Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 8
OWN 15
-15
7.8%
Max Duggan run for a loss of 15 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:01
Max Duggan run for 26 yds for a TD (Griffin Kell KICK)
-42.9
TD · Q4 9:56
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Malcolm Epps for 7 yds for a TD (K. Ingram Run For Two-point Conversion)
+25.9
TD · Q3 9:55
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Roschon Johnson for 7 yds for a TD (Cameron Dicker KICK)
+13.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com