2020 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2020 · Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · KU
modelKU aheadOKST aheadconfidence bandkey playKU scoreOKST score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:36 · Alex Hale 19 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 1:00: Chuba Hubbard run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex Hale KICK) — OKST win probability +1.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:04: Shane Illingworth pass complete to Braydon Johnson for 66 yds for a TD, (Alex Hale KICK) — OKST win probability +2.9 pts (now 92%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:22: Shane Illingworth pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 55 yds for a TD, (Alex Hale KICK) — OKST win probability +2.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:58: Chuba Hubbard run for 12 yds for a TD, (Alex Hale KICK) — OKST win probability +1.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
- TD · Q3 13:14: Shane Illingworth pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 14 yds for a TD, (Alex Hale KICK) — OKST win probability +1.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
KU made the numbers' call on 9 of 12OKST made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
- Q1 13:50KU 4th & 4 at KU 37, tiedClose callPunted · 10.1% before the snapGo for it10.1%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 12:29OKST 4th & 1 at KU 19, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call89.4%71% to convertField goal89.3%−0.177% to makePunt88.8%−0.6average punt
- Q1 9:36OKST 4th & 2 at KU 2, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 88.2% before the snapGo for it88.2%48% to convertField goalTheir call88.1%−0.194% to makePunt87.6%−0.6average punt
- Q1 7:43KU 4th & 8 at KU 23, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.2% before the snapGo for it12.2%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.3%average punt
- Q1 6:09OKST 4th & 19 at OKST 45, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.6% before the snapGo for it86.4%−0.211% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.7%average punt
- Q1 4:06KU 4th & 16 at KU 4, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snapGo for it13.1%−0.413% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.5%average punt
- Q2 14:16KU 4th & 8 at KU 21, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.4% before the snapGo for it12.3%−0.332% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.5%average punt
- Q2 12:40KU 4th & 1 at KU 31, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt10.1%−0.4average punt
- Q2 11:14KU 4th & 9 at KU 35, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snapGo for it9.8%−0.331% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.1%average punt
- Q2 7:38KU 4th & 2 at KU 30, down 24Close callPunted · 7.7% before the snapGo for it8.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.7%−0.4average punt
- Q2 6:12OKST 4th & 3 at OKST 25, up 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.8% before the snapGo for it93.8%−<0.151% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.8%average punt
- Q2 4:48KU 4th & 6 at KU 46, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snapGo for it7.8%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.9%average punt
- Q3 11:35KU 4th & 1 at KU 34, down 38Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.2%−0.1average punt
- Q3 8:12OKST 4th & 2 at KU 5, up 38Close callKicked a field goal · 98.6% before the snapGo for it98.6%51% to convertField goalTheir call98.5%−0.192% to makePunt98.0%−0.6average punt
- Q3 6:18KU 4th & 20 at KU 20, down 41Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.29% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q3 3:14OKST 4th & 9 at KU 9, up 41Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.1%−0.125% to convertField goalTheir call99.1%89% to makePunt98.7%−0.5average punt
- Q3 0:00KU 4th & 10 at KU 49, down 44Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%−<0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q4 13:58OKST 4th & 14 at OKST 15, up 44Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snapGo for it99.3%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.5%average punt
- Q4 10:26OKST 4th & 8 at KU 35, up 37Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.7%34% to convertField goal99.7%−<0.145% to makePuntTheir call99.6%−0.1average punt
- Q4 6:17KU 4th & 8 at OKST 42, down 37Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%−<0.134% to convertField goal0.1%−<0.130% to makePunt0.2%average punt
- Q4 0:59OKST 4th & 7 at KU 7, up 37Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.128% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%91% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1OKST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 1:00OKST Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.4%97% to makeGo for two87.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:04OKST Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.9%97% to makeGo for two89.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:22OKST Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.1%97% to makeGo for two93.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:58OKST Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.7%97% to makeGo for two96.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:14OKST Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.8%97% to makeGo for two98.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:04KU Touchdown, down 38 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.4%97% to makeGo for two0.4%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:058% → 8%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
7.8%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 2 yds to the Kans 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 2FG13 plays · 67 yds · 4:0592% → 90%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+30
8.3%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 30 yds to the Kans 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
8.4%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Braydon Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the Kans 29Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+10
8.5%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 10 yds to the Kans 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:4010% → 10%
OKSTDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 1:2090% → 89%
KUDrive 5PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 1:5511% → 11%
OKSTDrive 6TD9 plays · 29 yds · 3:0089% → 89%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
11.3%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 3 yds to the Kans 26Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+6
11.5%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Braydon Johnson for 6 yds to the Kans 20Similar
Q1 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-10
11.6%
Illingworth, Shane pass complete to Hubbard, Chuba for no gain to the KANSAS17, PENALTY OKLAST holding (Schneider, Ry) 10 yards to the KANSAS27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 20
OPP 27
+19
11.9%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to LD Brown for 19 yds to the Kans 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 1:2311% → 11%
OKSTDrive 8TD1 play · 66 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+66
7.8%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Braydon Johnson for 66 yds for a TD, (Alex Hale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 9PUNT9 plays · 13 yds · 2:169% → 9%
OKSTDrive 10TD6 plays · 85 yds · 1:5192% → 95%
Q2 10:40
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+3
7.6%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to LD Brown for 3 yds to the OKSt 20Similar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+10
7.7%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 10 yds to the OKSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
5.4%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 55 yds for a TD, (Alex Hale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 11PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 1:326% → 6%
OKSTDrive 12PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2094% → 94%
Q2 6:12
4TH & 3
OWN 25
0
5.7%
Tom Hutton punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Kwamie Lassiter II at the Kans 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:127% → 7%
Q2 4:48
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
6.6%
Kyle Thompson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Dillon Stoner at the OKSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 14TD11 plays · 88 yds · 2:4295% → 97%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
5.0%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 14 yds to the Kans 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
4.9%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Braydon Johnson for 3 yds to the Kans 41Similar
Q2 2:11
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+9
4.7%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 9 yds to the Kans 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 15INT8 plays · 29 yds · 1:093% → 3%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
3.1%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 8 yds to the Kans 36Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+5
2.8%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Takulve Williams for 5 yds to the Kans 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
2.3%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Takulve Williams for 4 yds to the Kans 45Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+10
2.3%
Kendrick, Miles pass incomplete to Parchment, Andrew, PENALTY OKLAST holding (Holmes, Christian) 10 yards to the OKLAST45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KANSAS.Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+9
2.5%
Miles Kendrick pass intercepted Devin Harper return for a loss of 9 yards to the OKSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 16END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 17TD8 plays · 68 yds · 1:4197% → 99%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
3.0%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 3 yds to the OKSt 35Similar
Q3 13:54
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+11
2.4%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Dillon Stoner for 11 yds to the Kans 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
1.3%
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 14 yds for a TD, (Alex Hale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 18DOWNS5 plays · 9 yds · 1:251% → 1%
Q3 12:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
1.2%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 5 yds to the Kans 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 19FG8 plays · 29 yds · 3:1999% → 99%
KUDrive 20PUNT5 plays · -10 yds · 1:351% → 1%
OKSTDrive 21FG11 plays · 44 yds · 2:5799% → 99%
Q3 5:30
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+14
0.6%
Ethan Bullock pass complete to Dee Anderson for 14 yds to the Kans 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 22PUNT10 plays · 24 yds · 3:100% → 0%
Q3 3:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
0.4%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 10 yds to the Kans 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:07
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+5
0.4%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Velton Gardner for 5 yds to the Kans 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+4
0.4%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 4 yds to the OKSt 48Similar
Q3 0:02
3RD & 7
OPP 48
-3
0.3%
Miles Kendrick sacked by Devin Harper for a loss of 3 yards to the Kans 49Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
0.3%
Kyle Thompson punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 23PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 0:57100% → 100%
KUDrive 24TD5 plays · 52 yds · 1:440% → 0%
Q4 13:11
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+30
0.2%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 30 yds to the OKSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 25PUNT7 plays · 40 yds · 1:31100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 26DOWNS10 plays · 56 yds · 4:070% → 0%
Q4 8:13
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+11
0.1%
Miles Kendrick pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 11 yds to the OKSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 27FG16 plays · 51 yds · 5:01100% → 100%
Q4 4:50
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+15
0.1%
Ethan Bullock pass complete to Rashod Owens for 15 yds to the Kans 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
0.1%
Ethan Bullock pass complete to Rashod Owens for 4 yds to the Kans 22Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+7
0.1%
Bullock, Ethan pass incomplete, PENALTY KANSAS pass interference (Mayberry, Duece) 7 yards to the KANSAS2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAST.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 28END OF GAME4 plays · 2 yds · 0:480% → 0%
Q4 0:11
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-5
0.1%
Miles Kendrick sacked by Tyren Irby for a loss of 5 yards to the Kans 28 Miles Kendrick fumbled, recovered by Kans Earl Bostick Jr. , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:04
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Braydon Johnson for 66 yds for a TD, (Alex Hale KICK)
-2.9
TD · Q2 9:22
Shane Illingworth pass complete to Tylan Wallace for 55 yds for a TD, (Alex Hale KICK)
-2.2
TD · Q2 1:58
Chuba Hubbard run for 12 yds for a TD, (Alex Hale KICK)
-1.8