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UNC

North Carolina 62 at Miami 26

MIA
2020 · Week 15 · Dec 12, 2020 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:26 · Donald Chaney Jr. run for no gain to the NCaro 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 44Home team on offense−3.2Score differential−1.9Garbage-time factor−1.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1Pregame prior+2.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:33: Javonte Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK) — UNC win probability +3.7 pts (now 52%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:15: Michael Carter run for 65 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK) — UNC win probability +11.1 pts (now 63%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:09: Michael Carter run for 25 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK) — UNC win probability +5.5 pts (now 79%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:10: D'Eriq King pass complete to Mike Harley for 2 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +11.8 pts (now 22%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:49: D'Eriq King pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 76 yds for a TD Timeout NORTH CAROLINA, clock 06:49 (D'Eriq King pass to Dee Wiggins for Two-Point Conversion) — MIA win probability +3.4 pts (now 8%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 7 of 8UNC made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 11:46MIA 4th & 3 at UNC 29, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.7%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    59.4%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:32MIA 4th & 9 at MIA 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.5%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:33UNC 4th & 1 at MIA 1, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    41.6%−1.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    38.4%−4.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:26MIA 4th & 1 at UNC 35, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    50.4%−1.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    50.0%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:46MIA 4th & 5 at MIA 30, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:48UNC 4th & 4 at MIA 4, up 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.5%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    55.8%−9.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:43MIA 4th & 20 at MIA 15, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−2.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:54MIA 4th & 17 at MIA 33, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:05UNC 4th & 8 at MIA 8, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.5%
    90% to make
    Punt
    83.1%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:52UNC 4th & 4 at MIA 36, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    87.8%−1.0
    42% to make
    Punt
    87.5%−1.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:02UNC 4th & 13 at MIA 20, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    92.0%−2.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:37MIA 4th & 10 at MIA 25, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:41MIA 4th & 17 at MIA 12, down 36
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 1 of 3UNC made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 8:53UNC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:33UNC Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:15UNC Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:09UNC Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:10MIA Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:24UNC Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:49MIA Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    3.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:16UNC Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:42MIA Touchdown, down 24 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    3.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 11:00UNC Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 3:58UNC Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIADrive 1FG
11 plays · 50 yds · 3:0154% → 54%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
53.6%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Mark PopeSimilar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+15
53.6%
D'Eriq King run for 15 yds to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+17
53.7%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mike Harley for 17 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
53.9%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 6 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 4
OPP 41
0
53.9%
D'Eriq King pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:37
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+5
53.9%
D'Eriq King run for 5 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
54.0%
D'Eriq King run for 7 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 3
OPP 29
0
54.2%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Brevin Jordan for no gain to the NCaro 29Similar
Q1 12:07
3RD & 3
OPP 29
0
54.3%
Cam'Ron Harris run for no gain to the NCaro 29Similar
Q1 11:46
4TH & 3
OPP 29
+47
54.4%
Jose Borregales 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3746% → 48%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
54.4%
Michael Carter run for 12 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+51
54.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 51 yds to the MiaFl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-3
54.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 15Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 13
OPP 15
+12
54.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 12 yds to the MiaFl 3Similar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+1
54.4%
Javonte Williams run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
52.4%
Javonte Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1553% → 52%
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
53.1%
Cam'Ron Harris run for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 17
OWN 18
0
53.0%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Mark PopeSimilar
Q1 8:11
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+8
52.7%
D'Eriq King run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q1 7:32
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
52.4%
Lou Hedley punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the NCaro 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4TD
13 plays · 71 yds · 4:3947% → 52%
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
52.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for 3 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+9
52.8%
Javonte Williams run for 9 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+23
52.3%
Javonte Williams run for 23 yds to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
52.1%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-4
52.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Michael Carter for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q1 6:01
3RD & 14
OPP 40
+5
52.7%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q1 5:28
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+14
52.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 14 yds to the MiaFl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+13
51.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Michael Carter for 13 yds to the MiaFl 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
51.5%
Sam Howell run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 4Similar
Q1 4:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
51.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 3 yds to the MiaFl 1Similar
Q1 3:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
51.5%
Javonte Williams run for no gain to the MiaFl 1Similar
Q1 2:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
48.4%
Javonte Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5DOWNS
8 plays · 40 yds · 2:0048% → 48%
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
47.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mike Harley for 19 yds to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
48.2%
Brevin Jordan run for no gain to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+12
47.9%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 12 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
48.5%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Mike HarleySimilar
Q1 1:02
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+7
48.3%
D'Eriq King run for 7 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q1 0:45
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+2
48.3%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 2 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q1 0:26
4TH & 1
OPP 35
0
47.7%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for no gain to the NCaro 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6TD
1 play · 65 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
36.6%
Michael Carter run for 65 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:1839% → 37%
Q1 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-9
38.7%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 26 MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MiaFl 16Similar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 19
OWN 16
+6
38.5%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Will Mallory for 6 yds to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q2 14:38
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
38.2%
D'Eriq King pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:28
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+8
37.9%
D'Eriq King run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q2 13:46
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
37.3%
Lou Hedley punt for 50 yds, downed at the NCaro 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8FG
6 plays · 76 yds · 2:4165% → 70%
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
34.8%
Javonte Williams run for 5 yds to the NCaro 25Similar
Q2 12:54
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+65
34.1%
Javonte Williams run for 65 yds to the MiaFl 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
32.2%
Michael Carter run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 9Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
32.1%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 7Similar
Q2 11:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
31.1%
Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 4Similar
Q2 10:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
30.5%
Grayson Atkins 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 1:5830% → 27%
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
30.0%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Mark PopeSimilar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
29.5%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mark Pope for 4 yds to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q2 10:11
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-5
29.3%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q2 9:11
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-9
28.0%
D'Eriq King sacked by Tomon Fox and Tyrone Hopper for a loss of 9 yards to the MiaFl 15Similar
Q2 8:43
4TH & 20
OWN 15
+8
27.2%
Lou Hedley punt for 50 yds , Dazz Newsome returns for 8 yds to the NCaro 23 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the NCaro 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10TD
4 plays · 67 yds · 1:1673% → 79%
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
27.3%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
27.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 15 yds to the MiaFl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
26.6%
Michael Carter run for 12 yds to the MiaFl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
21.1%
Michael Carter run for 25 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 1:5919% → 17%
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
19.3%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
18.7%
D'Eriq King run for 10 yds to the MiaFl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
19.5%
Cam'Ron Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 12
OWN 38
-5
17.3%
D'Eriq King sacked by Ja'Qurious Conley for a loss of 5 yards to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 17
OWN 33
0
16.7%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Mike HarleySimilar
Q2 4:54
4TH & 17
OWN 33
-6
16.5%
Lou Hedley punt for 53 yds , Dazz Newsome returns for a loss of 6 yards to the NCaro 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12FG
6 plays · 84 yds · 1:3779% → 83%
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+87
20.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 87 yds to the MiaFl 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
18.6%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (DJ Ivey) to the MiaFl 2Similar
Q2 3:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-6
18.1%
Sam Howell sacked by Quincy Roche and Jaelan Phillips for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaFl 8Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
17.9%
Javonte Williams run for no gain to the MiaFl 8Similar
Q2 3:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
18.2%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Javonte WilliamsSimilar
Q2 3:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
17.0%
Grayson Atkins 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 2:4216% → 22%
Q2 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
16.2%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Donald Chaney Jr. for 5 yds to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
15.0%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for no gain to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q2 2:09
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+14
14.7%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 14 yds to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
17.9%
D'Eriq King run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+11
17.2%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 11 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
13.8%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 3 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+26
14.2%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mike Harley for 11 yds to the NCaro 29 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the NCaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
14.0%
D'Eriq King run for 5 yds to the NCaro 9Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+6
13.5%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Will Mallory for 6 yds to the NCaro 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
14.2%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 2 yds to the NCaro 1Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
17.7%
Cam'Ron Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 2Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
21.7%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mike Harley for 2 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
15.9%
Javonte Williams run for 6 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 7:2185% → 96%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
14.8%
Michael Carter run for 23 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
13.5%
Michael Carter run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 46Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+12
13.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 12 yds to the MiaFl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
13.1%
Sam Howell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+5
12.4%
Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 5 yds to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q3 12:25
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+1
11.0%
Javonte Williams run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q3 11:52
4TH & 4
OPP 36
+5
11.1%
Sam Howell run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
9.8%
Michael Carter run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 11
OPP 32
-5
9.4%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 16
OPP 37
-10
9.3%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 26
OPP 47
+27
9.2%
Javonte Williams run for 27 yds to the MiaFl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-10
7.3%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q3 9:15
1ST & 20
OPP 30
+19
7.3%
Michael Carter run for 19 yds to the MiaFl 11Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 1
OPP 11
+7
6.7%
Michael Carter run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
6.3%
Javonte Williams run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 2Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
4.3%
Sam Howell run for 2 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:264% → 8%
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
4.2%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Cam'Ron Harris for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+76
7.7%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 76 yds for a TD Timeout NORTH CAROLINA, clock 06:49 (D'Eriq King pass to Dee Wiggins for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17MISSED FG
7 plays · 55 yds · 2:3195% → 96%
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
5.1%
Javonte Williams run for 15 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+43
4.3%
Javonte Williams run for 43 yds to the MiaFl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
3.8%
Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 14Similar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 7
OPP 14
-6
3.5%
Michael Carter run for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q3 4:07
3RD & 13
OPP 20
0
3.5%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q3 4:02
4TH & 13
OPP 20
+37
4.0%
Grayson Atkins 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18INT
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:136% → 6%
Q3 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
5.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mike Harley for 9 yds to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q3 3:36
2ND & 1
OWN 29
0
5.9%
D'Eriq King pass intercepted Tony Grimes return for no gain to the NCaro 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 3:5997% → 99%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
3.3%
Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+58
3.2%
Michael Carter run for 58 yds to the MiaFl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
2.7%
Javonte Williams run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 14Similar
Q3 1:25
2ND & 9
OPP 14
0
2.6%
Javonte Williams run for no gain to the MiaFl 14Similar
Q3 0:45
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+12
2.5%
Michael Carter run for 12 yds to the MiaFl 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
2.2%
Javonte Williams run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 1Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
2.2%
Javonte Williams run for no gain to the MiaFl 1Similar
Q4 14:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.6%
Rontavius Groves pass complete to Sam Howell for 1 yd for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 1:281% → 4%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
0.9%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mark Pope for 2 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
0.7%
D'Eriq King pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:14
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+27
0.7%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 27 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
0.8%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 14 yds to the NCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+19
0.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mike Harley for 19 yds to the NCaro 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
3.9%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 6 yds for a TD (D'Eriq King pass to Will Mallory for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21TD
5 plays · 46 yds · 1:1598% → 100%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+38
1.9%
Michael Carter run for 38 yds to the MiaFl 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
1.6%
Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 5Similar
Q4 11:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
1.4%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Rontavius GrovesSimilar
Q4 11:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
0.4%
Sam Howell pass complete to Kamari Morales for 5 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:180% → 0%
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.4%
D'Eriq King pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
0.4%
D'Eriq King pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:44
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
0.4%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Brevin JordanSimilar
Q4 10:37
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
0.4%
Lou Hedley punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the NCaro 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 23TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 6:17100% → 100%
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
0.4%
Javonte Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+25
0.4%
Javonte Williams run for 25 yds to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
0.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 10 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
0.2%
Michael Carter run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q4 7:16
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+7
0.2%
Michael Carter run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
0.2%
Michael Carter run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 17Similar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+3
0.2%
Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
0.2%
Michael Carter run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 7Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+6
0.1%
Javonte Williams run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.1%
Javonte Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:060% → 0%
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
0.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Donald Chaney Jr.Similar
Q4 3:42
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
0.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Will MallorySimilar
Q4 3:13
3RD & 10
OWN 19
-7
0.1%
Tyler Van Dyke sacked by Clyde Pinder Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaFl 12Similar
Q4 2:41
4TH & 17
OWN 12
+28
0.1%
Lou Hedley punt for 43 yds, downed at the MIAMI 45 MIAMI FL Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the MiaFl 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 25END OF 4TH QUARTER
4 plays · 5 yds · 2:02100% → 100%
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
0.1%
Josh Henderson run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+1
0.1%
British Brooks run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q4 0:45
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+2
0.1%
Elijah Green run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-6
0.1%
Jacolby Criswell run for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaFl 35 Jacolby Criswell fumbled, recovered by NCaroSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:10
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mike Harley for 2 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK)
+11.8
TD · Q1 0:15
Michael Carter run for 65 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)
-11.1
TD · Q2 7:09
Michael Carter run for 25 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)
-5.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com