2020 · Week 14 · Dec 5, 2020 · Lane Stadium
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Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadCLEM aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scoreCLEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:09 · Oscar Bradburn punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Amari Rodgers at the 50 yard line
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 3:45: Khalil Herbert run for 4 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK) — VT win probability +1.5 pts (now 10%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- FG · Q2 3:52: Brian Johnson 54 yd FG GOOD — VT win probability +2.2 pts (now 18%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:06: Lyn-J Dixon run for 19 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +5.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:45: Trevor Lawrence run for 7 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +7.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- FUMBLE · Q3 1:28: Hendon Hooker run for a loss of 4 yards Hendon Hooker fumbled, recovered by Clem Derion Kendrick , return for 66 yds (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +6.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 7 of 7CLEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 11:15VT 4th & 10 at VT 35, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snapGo for it9.7%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.8%average punt
- Q1 8:27CLEM 4th & 8 at VT 11, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.1% before the snapGo for it89.1%−<0.129% to convertField goalTheir call89.1%87% to makePunt88.7%−0.5average punt
- Q2 7:58VT 4th & 26 at CLEM 41, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snapGo for it15.6%−0.97% to convertField goal16.4%−0.232% to makePuntTheir call16.6%average punt
- Q2 6:58CLEM 4th & 6 at CLEM 24, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.5% before the snapGo for it81.3%−0.438% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.7%average punt
- Q2 3:52VT 4th & 13 at CLEM 37, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.0% before the snapGo for it18.5%−0.421% to convertField goalTheir call18.9%40% to makePunt18.6%−0.4average punt
- Q3 13:04CLEM 4th & 7 at CLEM 28, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.0% before the snapGo for it83.0%−0.836% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.8%average punt
- Q3 10:48VT 4th & 5 at VT 45, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snapGo for it17.6%−0.341% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.9%average punt
- Q3 3:10VT 4th & 16 at VT 19, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.1% before the snapGo for it8.4%−1.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.6%average punt
- Q3 2:15CLEM 4th & 15 at CLEM 25, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.4% before the snapGo for it89.8%−2.616% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.4%average punt
- Q4 11:06VT 4th & 4 at CLEM 46, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.1%48% to convertField goal1.7%−0.423% to makePunt1.9%−0.2average punt
- Q4 5:42CLEM 4th & 4 at VT 47, up 28Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 4:09VT 4th & 9 at VT 15, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1CLEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 3:45VT Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call14.4%97% to makeGo for two14.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:12CLEM Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.6%97% to makeGo for two85.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:06CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.1%97% to makeGo for two83.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:45CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.6%97% to makeGo for two88.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:16CLEM Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:01CLEM Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartVTDrive 1PUNT7 plays · 10 yds · 3:355% → 6%
Q1 14:04
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
5.1%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to James Mitchell for 7 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-13
5.5%
Hendon Hooker run for a loss of 13 yards to the VTech 25 Hendon Hooker fumbled, recovered by VTech Hendon HookerSimilar
Q1 11:15
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
5.9%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Amari Rodgers at the Clem 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 2FG7 plays · 61 yds · 2:3894% → 93%
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
6.0%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 4 yds to the Clem 32Similar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+49
6.3%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Braden Galloway for 49 yds to the VTech 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:01
3RD & 9
OPP 12
+1
6.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Travis Etienne for 1 yd to the VTech 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 3TD8 plays · 75 yds · 4:307% → 10%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
6.8%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to James Mitchell for a loss of 3 yards to the VTech 22Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+9
7.0%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Changa Hodge for 9 yds to the VTech 31Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+11
7.8%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 11 yds to the VTech 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+48
8.3%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 48 yds to the Clem 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 4TD11 plays · 75 yds · 3:2391% → 91%
Q1 3:07
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
9.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Cornell Powell for 8 yds to the Clem 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+9
9.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Davis Allen for 9 yds to the VTech 40Similar
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+19
10.2%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 19 yds to the VTech 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 5PUNT13 plays · 34 yds · 7:0510% → 12%
Q2 14:51
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
9.9%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to James Mitchell for 7 yds to the VTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
11.1%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Changa Hodge for 5 yds to the Clem 48Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 13
OPP 24
-11
13.8%
Braxton Burmeister run for 4 yds to the Clem 24 VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Clem 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5488% → 86%
Q2 6:58
4TH & 6
OWN 24
+14
13.6%
Will Spiers punt for 40 yds , James Mitchell returns for 14 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 7FG6 plays · 13 yds · 2:5715% → 18%
CLEMDrive 8TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3584% → 90%
Q2 1:45
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+9
15.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 9 yds to the VTech 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 9END OF HALF5 plays · 67 yds · 0:3713% → 14%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+42
13.9%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 42 yds to the Clem 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:4688% → 86%
Q3 13:25
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+2
13.0%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Cornell Powell for 2 yds to the Clem 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:5715% → 14%
CLEMDrive 12INT12 plays · 40 yds · 5:0488% → 87%
Q3 10:08
2ND & 12
50
+15
12.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Cornell Powell for 15 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:43
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+4
12.3%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Davis Allen for 4 yds to the VTech 31Similar
Q3 9:02
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+10
12.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Brannon Spector for 10 yds to the VTech 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
13.4%
Trevor Lawrence pass intercepted, touchback. Divine Deablo return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 13FUMBLE2 plays · -10 yds · 0:0417% → 17%
CLEMDrive 14TD2 plays · 12 yds · 0:1787% → 94%
VTDrive 15PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 1:258% → 8%
CLEMDrive 16PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 0:5093% → 93%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 17FUMBLE TD2 plays · -2 yds · 0:3010% → 3%
VTDrive 18DOWNS10 plays · 24 yds · 4:512% → 2%
CLEMDrive 19TD3 plays · 49 yds · 0:4499% → 100%
VTDrive 20FUMBLE8 plays · 66 yds · 2:060% → 0%
Q4 8:59
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+47
0.2%
Knox Kadum pass complete to Jalen Holston for 47 yds to the Clem 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-4
0.2%
Jalen Holston run for a loss of 4 yards to the Clem 9 Jalen Holston fumbled, forced by Keith Maguire, recovered by Clem Nyles PinckneySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 21PUNT6 plays · 44 yds · 2:03100% → 100%
Q4 5:42
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
0.2%
Will Spiers punt for 33 yds, fair catch by William Kakavitsas at the VTech 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 22PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:260% → 0%
CLEMDrive 23TD1 play · 50 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 24END OF 4TH QUARTER8 plays · 34 yds · 3:480% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:45
Trevor Lawrence run for 7 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK)
-7.1
FUMBLE · Q3 1:28
Hendon Hooker run for a loss of 4 yards Hendon Hooker fumbled, recovered by Clem Derion Kendrick , return for 66 yds (B.T. Potter KICK)
-6.5
TD · Q2 1:06
Lyn-J Dixon run for 19 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK)
-5.6