Try the model
DUKE

Duke 33 at Georgia Tech 56

GT
2020 · Week 13 · Nov 28, 2020 · Bobby Dodd Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · GT
modelGT aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playGT scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDSAFETYFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:06 · Chase Brice sacked by Jordan Domineck for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard line
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 180Home team on offense+22.2Score differential+8.4Garbage-time factor+5.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.6Pregame prior+0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:23: Chase Brice pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 30 yds for a TD (Charlie Ham KICK) — DUKE win probability +12.2 pts (now 50%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:54: Jeff Sims pass complete to Jalen Camp for 24 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK) — GT win probability +21.0 pts (now 76%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:15: Chase Brice pass complete to Jarett Garner for 28 yds for a TD (Charlie Ham KICK) — DUKE win probability +21.1 pts (now 47%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:33: Jeff Sims pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for 24 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK) — GT win probability +18.3 pts (now 83%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:13: Dontae Smith run for 36 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK) — GT win probability +12.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5DUKE made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 13:44DUKE 4th & 15 at DUKE 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:24GT 4th & 21 at GT 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:39DUKE 4th & 7 at DUKE 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.0%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:57DUKE 4th & 8 at DUKE 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.2%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:50GT 4th & 9 at GT 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:43GT 4th & 19 at GT 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%−1.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:09DUKE 4th & 12 at GT 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.1%−0.6
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    41.7%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.1%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:45GT 4th & 6 at DUKE 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    61.0%−0.7
    40% to make
    Punt
    60.6%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:36DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 41, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:07DUKE 4th & 10 at GT 17, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%−2.4
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.0%
    80% to make
    Punt
    37.8%−5.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:55DUKE 4th & 2 at DUKE 42, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    45.2%−1.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:32GT 4th & 7 at DUKE 37, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    74.9%−0.9
    40% to make
    Punt
    74.6%−1.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 22, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−2.0
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:06DUKE 4th & 16 at GT 45, down 16
    Close callWent for it · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.3%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    5.4%−0.5
    25% to make
    Punt
    6.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:50DUKE 4th & 2 at GT 35, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GT made the numbers' call on 6 of 7DUKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 13:44GT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:11GT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:50DUKE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:15GT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:23DUKE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:54GT Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:15DUKE Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:33GT Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:13GT Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.3%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 4:42GT Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GTDrive 1TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:1652% → 53%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
52.1%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 2 yds to the GTech 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
52.1%
Jeff Sims pass incomplete to Malachi CarterSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+12
52.1%
Jeff Sims run for 12 yds to the GTech 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+61
52.8%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 61 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
52.7%
Deon Jackson run for 3 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-8
52.7%
Chase Brice sacked by Kaleb Oliver for a loss of 8 yards to the Duke 20Similar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
52.8%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Jake Bobo, broken up by David CurrySimilar
Q1 13:44
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
52.8%
Porter Wilson punt for 70 yds, downed at the GTech 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 0:0054% → 53%
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
53.5%
Jordan Mason run for 4 yds to the GTech 14Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+5
53.5%
Jordan Mason run for 5 yds to the GTech 19Similar
Q1 12:24
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+2
53.3%
Jordan Mason run for 2 yds to the GTech 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+10
53.5%
Sims, J. pass incomplete to Carter, M., PENALTY DU holding (Waters, M.) 10 yards to the GT31, 1ST DOWN GT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
53.5%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, false start (Jack DeFoor) to the GTech 26Similar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 15
OWN 26
-7
53.5%
Jeff Sims sacked by Shaka Heyward for a loss of 7 yards to the GTech 19Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 22
OWN 19
+1
53.4%
Jordan Mason run for 1 yd to the GTech 20Similar
Q1 12:24
3RD & 21
OWN 20
0
53.3%
Jeff Sims pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:24
4TH & 21
OWN 20
0
53.2%
Austin Kent punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1746% → 47%
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
54.3%
Deon Jackson run for 3 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
54.1%
Deon Jackson run for no gain to the Duke 46Similar
Q1 9:56
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
54.4%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:39
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
52.8%
Porter Wilson punt for 49 yds , Peje' Harris returns for no gain for a TD Peje' Harris fumbled, recovered by Duke Shaka Heyward for a TD (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 5TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2853% → 57%
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
52.8%
Sims, J. pass incomplete to Gibbs, J., PENALTY DU offside defense (Jordan, D.) 5 yards to the GT30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:39
1ST & 5
OWN 30
-1
53.2%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for a loss of 1 yard to the GTech 29Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
52.9%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 3 yds to the GTech 32Similar
Q1 8:39
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+48
52.7%
Jordan Mason run for 48 yds to the Duke 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
53.7%
Jordan Mason run for 3 yds to the Duke 17Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+5
53.7%
Jordan Mason run for 5 yds to the Duke 12Similar
Q1 6:11
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+12
57.3%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Malachi Carter for 12 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 1:0944% → 42%
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
56.5%
Mataeo Durant run for 6 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 4
OWN 28
-1
56.3%
Mataeo Durant run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 27Similar
Q1 6:06
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+7
56.7%
Chase Brice pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 7 yds to the Duke 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
56.9%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-5
57.0%
DUKE Penalty, false start (Devery Hamilton) to the Duke 29Similar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 15
OWN 29
+7
57.3%
Chase Brice run for 7 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q1 4:57
3RD & 8
OWN 36
0
57.2%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:57
4TH & 8
OWN 36
0
57.6%
Porter Wilson punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0058% → 57%
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
57.9%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, false start (Ryan Johnson) to the GTech 15Similar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+6
57.8%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 6 yds to the GTech 21Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
57.8%
Jeff Sims pass incomplete to Malachi CarterSimilar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
57.4%
Jeff Sims pass incomplete to Malachi CarterSimilar
Q1 3:50
4TH & 9
OWN 21
+36
56.9%
Austin Kent punt for 36 yds DUKE Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8TD
11 plays · 57 yds · 3:4943% → 49%
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
57.4%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+11
57.5%
Chase Brice pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 11 yds to the GTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+14
56.8%
Mataeo Durant run for 14 yds to the GTech 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
56.2%
Mataeo Durant run for a loss of 1 yard to the GTech 33Similar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+10
56.2%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 10 yds to the GTech 23Similar
Q1 2:39
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+2
56.7%
Noah Gray run for 2 yds to the GTech 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
56.5%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+4
56.7%
Mataeo Durant run for 4 yds to the GTech 17Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+14
57.4%
Chase Brice pass complete to Noah Gray for 14 yds to the GTech 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
56.6%
Chase Brice run for 2 yds to the GTech 1Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
50.8%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd for a TD (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 0:0055% → 53%
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-9
54.8%
Jeff Sims sacked by Chris Rumph II and Drew Jordan for a loss of 9 yards to the GTech 28Similar
Q2 13:43
2ND & 19
OWN 28
+7
54.0%
Nate McCollum run for 7 yds to the GTech 35Similar
Q2 13:43
3RD & 12
OWN 35
-2
53.4%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for a loss of 2 yards to the GTech 33Similar
Q2 13:43
4TH & 14
OWN 33
-5
53.0%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the GTech 28Similar
Q2 13:43
4TH & 19
OWN 28
0
52.9%
Austin Kent punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10FUMBLE
4 plays · 20 yds · 0:0047% → 49%
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+44
53.2%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dennis Smith for 44 yds to the GTech 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
50.8%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jake Marwede for 7 yds to the GTech 27Similar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 3
OPP 27
0
50.6%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:39
3RD & 3
OPP 27
-31
51.3%
Team run for a loss of 31 yards to the Duke 42 Team fumbled, recovered by GTech Kaleb OliverSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 11TD
5 plays · 42 yds · 1:2556% → 64%
Q2 10:40
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+14
56.3%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Malachi Carter for 14 yds to the Duke 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
56.8%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 7 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 3
OPP 35
-5
57.2%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for a loss of 5 yards to the Duke 40Similar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
57.2%
Jeff Sims pass incomplete to Peje' HarrisSimilar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+26
64.2%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 26 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 41 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
61.8%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 22 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
60.1%
Chase Brice pass complete to Deon Jackson for 8 yds to the GTech 45Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+13
59.5%
Deon Jackson run for 23 yds to the GTech 22 for a 1ST down DUKE Penalty, illegal block (-10 Yards) to the GTech 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
58.7%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the GTech 30Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 8
OPP 30
0
58.5%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Jarett GarnerSimilar
Q2 9:09
3RD & 8
OPP 30
-4
59.9%
Jalon Calhoun run for a loss of 4 yards to the GTech 34Similar
Q2 9:09
4TH & 12
OPP 34
0
62.5%
Porter Wilson punt for 17 yds, downed at the GTech 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 13DOWNS
6 plays · 46 yds · 1:2665% → 67%
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+42
64.6%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 42 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
66.6%
Jordan Mason run for 3 yds to the Duke 38Similar
Q2 6:11
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+1
66.6%
Jordan Mason run for 1 yd to the Duke 37Similar
Q2 6:11
3RD & 6
OPP 37
0
65.9%
Jeff Sims pass incomplete to Peje' HarrisSimilar
Q2 4:45
4TH & 6
OPP 37
0
66.7%
Jeff Sims pass incomplete to Peje' Harris GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 2:1435% → 50%
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
64.9%
Mataeo Durant run for 4 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q2 4:37
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+13
63.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dennis Smith for 13 yds to the GTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
63.2%
Chase Brice pass complete to Eli Pancol for 15 yds to the GTech 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
62.1%
Chase Brice pass incomplete, broken up by Tariq CarpenterSimilar
Q2 4:37
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+1
62.1%
Chase Brice run for 1 yd to the GTech 30Similar
Q2 2:23
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+30
49.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 30 yds for a TD (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 15SF
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:2656% → 51%
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-2
56.1%
Mason, J. rush for 8 yards to the GT12 (Carter II, M.), PENALTY GT holding (Ezzard M.) 2 yards to the GT2, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 12
OWN 2
-2
51.3%
Jordan Mason run for a loss of 2 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16FUMBLE TD
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:1048% → 33%
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
52.2%
Chase Brice run for 1 yd to the Duke 2Similar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 9
OWN 2
0
66.8%
Chase Brice sacked by Jordan Domineck for a loss of 2 yards Chase Brice fumbled, recovered by GTech Jordan Domineck , return for 0 yards for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
64.6%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 5 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
62.5%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Jalon Calhoun, broken up by Kaleb OliverSimilar
Q2 1:36
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
64.2%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q2 1:36
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
65.7%
Porter Wilson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Charlie Thomas at the GTech 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 18INT
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:0066% → 67%
Q2 1:14
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+5
65.5%
Jeff Sims run for 5 yds to the GTech 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
65.2%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Jalen Camp for 6 yds to the GTech 24Similar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
65.6%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Pressley Harvin III for 6 yds to the GTech 35Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+4
66.5%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Peje' Harris for 4 yds to the GTech 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-33
66.6%
Jeff Sims pass intercepted Michael Carter II return for 33 yds to the GTech 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1840% → 42%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
59.9%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Jarett GarnerSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
60.0%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 10
OPP 17
0
62.1%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Jarett GarnerSimilar
Q2 0:07
4TH & 10
OPP 17
+35
57.7%
Charlie Ham 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 20END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
60.3%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the GTech 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21INT
9 plays · 39 yds · 0:0042% → 45%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
58.2%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd to the Duke 15Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+4
58.5%
Chase Brice pass complete to Deon Jackson for 4 yds to the Duke 19Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 5
OWN 19
+15
59.2%
Brice, C. pass incomplete to Calhoun, J., PENALTY GT pass interference (Walker, W.) 15 yards to the DU34, 1ST DOWN DU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
57.3%
Mataeo Durant run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 33Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+9
58.0%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jake Bobo for 9 yds to the Duke 42Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 2
OWN 42
0
55.7%
Mataeo Durant run for no gain to the Duke 42Similar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 2
OWN 42
+11
57.6%
Noah Gray pass complete to DeWayne Carter for 11 yds to the GTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-43
54.8%
Chase Brice pass intercepted Tariq Carpenter return for 43 yds to the Duke 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 22TD
1 play · 24 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q3 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
75.8%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Jalen Camp for 24 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23FUMBLE
3 plays · 20 yds · 0:0029% → 31%
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
70.6%
Deon Jackson run for 8 yds to the Duke 49Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+12
69.2%
Deon Jackson run for 12 yds to the GTech 39 Deon Jackson fumbled, forced by David Curry, recovered by GTech Tre SwillingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 24FUMBLE
7 plays · 32 yds · 0:3775% → 77%
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
74.9%
Jordan Mason run for 7 yds to the GTech 46Similar
Q3 10:19
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+5
75.4%
Jordan Mason run for 5 yds to the Duke 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
76.5%
Jordan Mason run for a loss of 2 yards to the GTech 49Similar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+4
75.9%
Jordan Mason run for 4 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q3 9:42
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+23
75.5%
Jeff Sims run for 23 yds to the Duke 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
77.0%
Jeff Sims pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-4
77.0%
Dontae Smith run for a loss of 4 yards to the Duke 29 Dontae Smith fumbled, forced by Chris Rumph II, recovered by Duke Drew JordanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 25FUMBLE
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:0025% → 26%
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
75.2%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+22
75.6%
Chase Brice run for 7 yds to the GTech 36 for a 1ST down GEORGIA TECH Penalty, personal foul (Djimon Brooks) to the GTech 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
73.1%
Chase Brice pass complete to Deon Jackson for 10 yds to the GTech 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-10
73.1%
Jackson, D. rush for loss of 3 yards to the GT42, PENALTY DU holding (Barton, G.) 10 yards to the GT49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 20
OPP 49
-11
74.2%
Chase Brice run for a loss of 11 yards to the Duke 40 Chase Brice fumbled, recovered by GTech Antwan OwensSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 26DOWNS
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0079% → 77%
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
79.0%
Sims, J. pass incomplete, PENALTY GT holding (Defoor, J.) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:32
1ST & 20
50
-2
78.2%
Jordan Mason run for a loss of 2 yards to the GTech 48Similar
Q3 6:32
2ND & 22
OWN 48
+11
77.8%
Jeff Sims run for 11 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q3 6:32
3RD & 11
OPP 41
+4
77.6%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Peje' Harris for 4 yds to the Duke 37Similar
Q3 6:32
4TH & 7
OPP 37
0
76.8%
Jeff Sims pass incomplete to Jordan MasonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 27TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 2:1523% → 47%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
77.4%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
50
+9
75.5%
Mataeo Durant run for 9 yds to the GTech 41Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+1
75.0%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the GTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
76.0%
Mataeo Durant run for 9 yds to the GTech 31Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+3
74.2%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the GTech 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
53.2%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jarett Garner for 28 yds for a TD (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 28TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 1:4261% → 83%
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+28
61.4%
Jeff Sims run for 28 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
65.4%
Jeff Sims run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 38 Jeff Sims fumbled, recovered by GTech Zach QuinneySimilar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+14
65.0%
Jeff Sims run for 14 yds to the Duke 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
83.3%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for 24 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 29PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:2419% → 17%
Q3 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
81.0%
Deon Jackson run for no gain to the Duke 8Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 8
0
81.5%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Jarett GarnerSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 8
+10
82.5%
Chase Brice pass complete to Eli Pancol for 10 yds to the Duke 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
80.7%
Deon Jackson run for 4 yds to the Duke 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 22
0
80.6%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Darrell Harding Jr., broken up by Tre SwillingSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 22
0
81.8%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Jake MarwedeSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 22
0
82.6%
Porter Wilson punt for 42 yds , Miles Brooks returns for no gain to the GTech 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 30TD
7 plays · 64 yds · 3:2682% → 95%
Q4 13:39
1ST & 18
OWN 28
+12
82.0%
Jeff Sims run for 12 yds to the GTech 40Similar
Q4 13:39
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+5
83.6%
Jordan Mason run for 5 yds to the GTech 45Similar
Q4 13:39
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+2
82.8%
Jordan Mason run for 2 yds to the GTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
83.8%
Jordan Mason run for 9 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q4 13:39
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+8
84.0%
Jordan Mason run for 8 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-8
82.9%
Jordan Mason run for 2 yds to the GTech 38 GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the GTech 28Similar
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
95.3%
Dontae Smith run for 36 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 31DOWNS
9 plays · 8 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
93.3%
DUKE Penalty, Offensive holding (Jacob Monk) to the Duke 32Similar
Q4 10:06
1ST & 20
OWN 32
+13
93.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jake Bobo for 13 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+1
93.2%
Chase Brice run for 1 yd to the Duke 46Similar
Q4 10:06
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+15
93.3%
Brice, C. pass incomplete to Bobo, J., PENALTY GT pass interference (Sims, M.) 15 yards to the GT39, 1ST DOWN DU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
93.1%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-6
93.1%
Chase Brice sacked by Akelo Stone for a loss of 6 yards to the GTech 45Similar
Q4 10:06
3RD & 16
OPP 45
0
93.8%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q4 10:06
4TH & 16
OPP 45
-5
94.0%
Chase Brice sacked by Jordan Domineck for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 32TD
9 plays · 50 yds · 2:4996% → 100%
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
50
-3
95.9%
Jordan Mason run for a loss of 3 yards to the GTech 47Similar
Q4 7:31
2ND & 13
OWN 47
+6
95.8%
Dontae Smith run for 6 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q4 7:31
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+10
95.9%
Jeff Sims run for 10 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
96.0%
Dontae Smith run for 1 yd to the Duke 36Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+4
97.3%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Jack Coco for 4 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q4 5:36
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+10
97.5%
Jeff Sims run for 10 yds to the Duke 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
99.5%
Dontae Smith run for 22 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 33DOWNS
11 plays · 35 yds · 1:461% → 1%
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
99.5%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Marwede for 5 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q4 4:36
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+4
99.5%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 4 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q4 4:36
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+6
99.5%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 6 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
99.5%
DUKE Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass (Graham Barton) to the Duke 40Similar
Q4 4:36
1ST & 15
OWN 40
0
99.5%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jalon Calhoun, broken up by Avery ShowellSimilar
Q4 4:36
2ND & 15
OWN 40
+17
99.5%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 17 yds to the GTech 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.6%
Mataeo Durant run for no gain to the GTech 43Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+8
99.6%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jarett Garner for 8 yds to the GTech 35Similar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 2
OPP 35
0
99.5%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jarett GarnerSimilar
Q4 2:50
4TH & 2
OPP 35
0
99.5%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 34END OF GAME
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
99.7%
Jerry Howard Jr. run for 4 yds to the GTech 39Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+4
99.7%
Jerry Howard Jr. run for 4 yds to the GTech 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:15
Chase Brice pass complete to Jarett Garner for 28 yds for a TD (Charlie Ham KICK)
-21.1
TD · Q3 10:54
Jeff Sims pass complete to Jalen Camp for 24 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK)
+21
TD · Q3 0:33
Jeff Sims pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for 24 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK)
+18.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com