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Notre Dame 31 at North Carolina 17

UNC
2020 · Week 13 · Nov 27, 2020 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadND aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:05 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:59: Sam Howell run for 1 yd for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK) — UNC win probability +5.7 pts (now 52%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:05: Ian Book pass complete to Kyren Williams for 4 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK) — ND win probability +5.6 pts (now 56%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:00: Jonathan Doerer 32 yd FG GOOD — ND win probability +11.2 pts (now 58%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:05: Ben Skowronek run for 13 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK) — ND win probability +15.6 pts (now 72%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:20: Kyren Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK) — ND win probability +7.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 6 of 9ND made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 12:50ND 4th & 21 at ND 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.4%
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:47UNC 4th & 8 at UNC 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.1%
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:59ND 4th & 2 at ND 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.0%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:49UNC 4th & 4 at UNC 9, tied
    Close callPunted · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:50ND 4th & 9 at UNC 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    54.7%−0.6
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.0%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:10UNC 4th & 2 at ND 25, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.5%−0.4
    66% to make
    Punt
    44.9%−5.0
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:27UNC 4th & 9 at UNC 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−1.8
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:25UNC 4th & 5 at UNC 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−0.8
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:19ND 4th & 6 at UNC 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.1%
    84% to make
    Punt
    63.7%−8.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:44UNC 4th & 4 at UNC 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:45ND 4th & 6 at ND 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%−1.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:50UNC 4th & 3 at UNC 35, down 7
    Close callPunted · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.6%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:10ND 4th & 6 at ND 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.0%−1.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:52UNC 4th & 27 at UNC 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−3.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:47UNC 4th & 6 at UNC 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.4%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ND made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:56UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:19ND Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:59UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 1:05ND Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:05ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:20ND Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 2:0057% → 56%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
43.4%
Kyren Williams run for 2 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q1 14:12
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
43.5%
Ian Book run for no gain to the NDame 27Similar
Q1 13:22
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-13
43.8%
Ian Book sacked by Chazz Surratt for a loss of 13 yards to the NDame 14Similar
Q1 12:50
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
44.1%
Jay Bramblett punt for 36 yds , Dazz Newsome returns for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2TD
7 plays · 50 yds · 2:4644% → 47%
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
50
+4
44.3%
Sam Howell run for 4 yds to the NDame 46Similar
Q1 12:12
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+26
44.5%
Michael Carter run for 26 yds to the NDame 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
44.8%
Javonte Williams run for 3 yds to the NDame 17Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+13
45.0%
Sam Howell run for 13 yds to the NDame 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
45.2%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q1 10:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
45.3%
Javonte Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 6Similar
Q1 9:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
47.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Emery Simmons for 6 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:2653% → 56%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
46.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Javon McKinley for 8 yds to the NDame 33Similar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
46.7%
Kyren Williams run for 6 yds to the NDame 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
47.1%
Kyren Williams run for 4 yds to the NDame 43Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+16
47.4%
Ian Book pass complete to Michael Mayer for 16 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
47.4%
Kyren Williams run for no gain to the NCaro 41Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+16
47.4%
Chris Tyree run for 16 yds to the NCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+18
47.1%
Ian Book run for 18 yds to the NCaro 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
47.4%
Kyren Williams run for 5 yds to the NCaro 2Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
44.0%
Kyren Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:1046% → 52%
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
45.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 14 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
46.4%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+14
46.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 14 yds to the NDame 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
47.3%
Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the NDame 44Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 7
OPP 42
-8
47.5%
Javonte Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 42 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NCaro 48Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 15
OWN 48
+51
46.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 51 yds to the NDame 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
52.4%
Sam Howell run for 1 yd for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5TD
6 plays · 82 yds · 1:4049% → 56%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+43
50.8%
Ian Book pass complete to Javon McKinley for 43 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+33
49.3%
Ian Book run for 33 yds to the NCaro 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
49.5%
Kyren Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 4Similar
Q1 1:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
43.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Kyren Williams for 4 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:1147% → 47%
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
47.2%
Javonte Williams run for 10 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
47.5%
Sam Howell sacked by Adetokunbo Ogundeji for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 34Similar
Q1 0:12
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+3
47.5%
Javonte Williams run for 3 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
47.3%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q2 14:47
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
46.7%
Ben Kiernan punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NDame 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 3:4254% → 53%
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
46.3%
Kyren Williams run for 5 yds to the NDame 21Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+5
46.4%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the NDame 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
46.4%
Ian Book pass complete to Joe Wilkins Jr. for 9 yds to the NDame 35Similar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+3
45.6%
Kyren Williams run for 3 yds to the NDame 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
45.8%
Kyren Williams run for 6 yds to the NDame 44Similar
Q2 12:24
2ND & 4
OWN 44
-2
45.2%
Ian Book sacked by Tomon Fox for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 42Similar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+4
45.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Kyren Williams for 4 yds to the NDame 46Similar
Q2 10:59
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
46.7%
Jay Bramblett punt for 51 yds, downed at the NCaro 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:0248% → 47%
Q2 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
48.3%
Javonte Williams run for 1 yd to the NCaro 4Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 9
OWN 4
-3
48.3%
Sam Howell sacked by Isaiah Foskey for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 1Similar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 12
OWN 1
+8
47.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for 8 yds to the NCaro 9Similar
Q2 8:49
4TH & 4
OWN 9
0
47.3%
Ben Kiernan punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NDame 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:5554% → 53%
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
45.7%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Tommy TrembleSimilar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
46.3%
Ian Book run for 5 yds to the NDame 45Similar
Q2 7:58
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+12
44.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Michael Mayer for 12 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
43.9%
Kyren Williams run for 1 yd to the NCaro 42Similar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 9
OPP 42
0
44.0%
Chris Tyree run for no gain to the NCaro 42Similar
Q2 5:58
3RD & 9
OPP 42
0
44.7%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Michael MayerSimilar
Q2 5:50
4TH & 9
OPP 42
0
46.7%
Jay Bramblett punt for 39 yds, downed at the NCaro 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10FG
14 plays · 72 yds · 4:2850% → 57%
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+14
49.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 14 yds to the NCaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
49.9%
Sam Howell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 17
-8
49.8%
Sam Howell sacked by Marist Liufau for a loss of 8 yards to the NCaro 9Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 18
OWN 9
+20
48.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 20 yds to the NCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
50.6%
Michael Carter run for no gain to the NCaro 29Similar
Q2 3:32
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-10
50.4%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Marcus McKethan) to the NCaro 19Similar
Q2 3:08
2ND & 20
OWN 19
0
50.2%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Emery SimmonsSimilar
Q2 3:03
3RD & 20
OWN 29
+25
49.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 10 yds to the NCaro 29 for a 1ST down NOTRE DAME Penalty, Personal Foul (Kyle Hamilton) to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+23
52.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Michael Carter for 23 yds to the NDame 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
54.4%
Sam Howell pass complete to Emery Simmons for 5 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+3
54.8%
Javonte Williams run for 3 yds to the NDame 25Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 2
OPP 25
0
53.6%
Javonte Williams run for no gain to the NDame 25Similar
Q2 1:10
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+42
56.8%
Grayson Atkins 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11END OF HALF
12 plays · 61 yds · 0:5843% → 58%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
56.9%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the NDame 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
56.2%
Ian Book pass complete to Ben Skowronek for 6 yds to the NDame 41Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+11
53.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Kyren Williams for 11 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
52.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Javon McKinley for 10 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
52.4%
Ian Book pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+9
52.6%
Kyren Williams run for 9 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+15
54.2%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Don Chapman) to the NCaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
53.4%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Ben SkowronekSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+32
42.2%
Jonathan Doerer 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:2351% → 50%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
51.4%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 10 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
51.9%
Michael Carter run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 32Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+9
51.4%
Michael Carter run for 9 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q3 13:34
3RD & 4
OWN 41
-5
53.1%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 36Similar
Q3 13:05
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
51.1%
Javonte Williams run for no gain to the NCaro 36Similar
Q3 12:27
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
49.5%
Ben Kiernan punt for 62 yds, downed at the NDame 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13TD
15 plays · 97 yds · 4:5051% → 72%
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
49.0%
Kyren Williams run for no gain to the NDame 3Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+12
49.4%
Ian Book pass complete to Javon McKinley for 12 yds to the NDame 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
48.7%
Ian Book pass complete to Lawrence Keys III for 1 yd to the NDame 16Similar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+3
49.1%
Kyren Williams run for 3 yds to the NDame 19Similar
Q3 10:04
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+5
50.3%
Ian Book pass complete to Avery Davis for 5 yds to the NDame 24Similar
Q3 9:45
4TH & 1
OWN 24
+5
51.1%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the NDame 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
48.6%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Ben SkowronekSimilar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+21
49.0%
Ian Book pass complete to Ben Skowronek for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
50
0
45.2%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Tommy TrembleSimilar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 10
50
0
45.8%
Ian Book pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:33
3RD & 10
50
+15
47.3%
Ian Book pass complete to Michael Mayer for 15 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
44.1%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Kyren WilliamsSimilar
Q3 7:42
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+15
44.1%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Tony Grimes) to the NCaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
43.7%
Ian Book pass complete to Joe Wilkins Jr. for 7 yds to the NCaro 13Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+13
28.0%
Ben Skowronek run for 13 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1534% → 32%
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
33.8%
Sam Howell sacked by Justin Ademilola for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 23Similar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+7
33.6%
Javonte Williams run for 7 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q3 5:35
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
33.0%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Javonte WilliamsSimilar
Q3 5:25
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+8
31.6%
Ben Kiernan punt for 49 yds , Matt Salerno returns for 8 yds to the NDame 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15MISSED FG
5 plays · 57 yds · 1:3870% → 72%
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+53
29.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Javon McKinley for 53 yds to the NCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
26.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Tommy Tremble for 1 yd to the NCaro 17Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 9
OPP 17
0
26.4%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Joe Wilkins Jr.Similar
Q3 3:51
3RD & 9
OPP 17
+3
27.4%
Ian Book run for 3 yds to the NCaro 14Similar
Q3 3:19
4TH & 6
OPP 14
+32
28.5%
Jonathan Doerer 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:2932% → 32%
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
32.3%
Michael Carter run for 16 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
33.4%
Michael Carter run for 5 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
35.8%
Sam Howell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+1
33.7%
Javonte Williams run for 1 yd to the NCaro 42Similar
Q3 1:44
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
31.6%
Ben Kiernan punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NDame 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:5571% → 71%
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-5
29.0%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NDame 6Similar
Q3 1:01
1ST & 15
OWN 6
+2
29.2%
Kyren Williams run for 2 yds to the NDame 8Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 13
OWN 8
-4
29.4%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (-4 Yards) to the NDame 4Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 17
OWN 4
+7
29.3%
Ian Book pass complete to Ben Skowronek for 7 yds to the NDame 11Similar
Q3 0:12
3RD & 10
OWN 11
+4
29.4%
Ian Book run for 4 yds to the NDame 15Similar
Q4 14:45
4TH & 6
OWN 15
0
29.5%
Jay Bramblett punt for 57 yds, downed at the NCaro 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3030% → 27%
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
29.7%
Michael Carter run for 1 yd to the NCaro 29Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+1
28.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 1 yd to the NCaro 30Similar
Q4 13:25
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+5
27.1%
Sam Howell run for 5 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q4 12:50
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
27.3%
Ben Kiernan punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Matt Salerno at the NDame 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 3:2775% → 78%
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
24.8%
Kyren Williams run for 3 yds to the NDame 19Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+1
24.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Kyren Williams for 1 yd to the NDame 20Similar
Q4 11:20
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+11
25.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Michael Mayer for 11 yds to the NDame 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
22.7%
Kyren Williams run for 4 yds to the NDame 35Similar
Q4 9:57
2ND & 6
OWN 35
0
20.9%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Illegal Touching ( Yards) to the NDame 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:17
3RD & 6
OWN 35
0
21.1%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Avery DavisSimilar
Q4 9:10
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
22.3%
Jay Bramblett punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the NCaro 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 9 yds · 3:0528% → 20%
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
27.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for 2 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+11
26.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 11 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
28.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 5 yds to the NDame 49Similar
Q4 7:26
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+8
30.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 8 yds to the NDame 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
30.3%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
28.9%
Sam Howell run for no gain to the NDame 41Similar
Q4 6:25
3RD & 10
OPP 41
-2
26.1%
Sam Howell sacked by Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 43Similar
Q4 6:08
4TH & 12
OPP 43
-15
21.8%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Dyami Brown) to the NCaro 42Similar
Q4 5:52
4TH & 27
OWN 42
0
19.8%
Ben Kiernan punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NDame 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 21TD
8 plays · 89 yds · 4:2083% → 99%
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+47
17.1%
Kyren Williams run for 47 yds to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
12.3%
Kyren Williams run for 3 yds to the NCaro 39Similar
Q4 4:12
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+9
12.1%
Ian Book pass complete to Javon McKinley for 9 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
11.3%
Kyren Williams run for 11 yds to the NCaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
9.9%
Kyren Williams run for 5 yds to the NCaro 14Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 5
OPP 14
0
7.3%
Kyren Williams run for no gain to the NCaro 14Similar
Q4 1:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
1.2%
Kyren Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:303% → 2%
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
2.7%
Sam Howell sacked by Adetokunbo Ogundeji for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 20Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
2.4%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Emery SimmonsSimilar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+9
2.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 9 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q4 0:47
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
2.3%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 23END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:3399% → 99%
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
1.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 30Similar
Q4 0:05
2ND & 11
OPP 30
-1
1.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:05
Ben Skowronek run for 13 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)
-15.6
FG · Q2 0:00
Jonathan Doerer 32 yd FG GOOD
-11.2
TD · Q4 1:20
Kyren Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)
-7.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com