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VT

Virginia Tech 14 at Pittsburgh 47

PITT
2020 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2020 · Acrisure Stadium
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Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadVT aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreVT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:53 · Kirk Christodoulou punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the VTech 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 110Home team on offense+8.7Pregame prior−6.4Score differential+1.1Garbage-time factor+2.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.2Blowout margin−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:33: Vincent Davis run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK) — PITT win probability +9.1 pts (now 60%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:36: Hendon Hooker pass complete to Tre Turner for 7 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK) — VT win probability +10.7 pts (now 56%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:29: Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jaylon Barden for 11 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK) — PITT win probability +10.1 pts (now 64%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 12:25: Alex Kessman 53 yd FG GOOD — PITT win probability +7.4 pts (now 72%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:43: Kenny Pickett pass complete to DJ Turner for 64 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK) — PITT win probability +15.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 4 of 8VT made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 11:44PITT 4th & 4 at VT 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.3%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    35.8%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:44VT 4th & 1 at VT 34, down 3
    Close callPunted · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.5%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:00PITT 4th & 10 at PITT 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:35VT 4th & 3 at PITT 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    61.9%−0.4
    28% to make
    Punt
    62.1%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:38PITT 4th & 3 at VT 12, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.4%−0.3
    86% to make
    Punt
    37.8%−2.9
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:38VT 4th & 1 at VT 25, down 6
    Close callPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.1%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:39PITT 4th & 5 at VT 34, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.3%−0.3
    47% to make
    Punt
    45.9%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:39VT 4th & 25 at PITT 38, down 9
    Close callPunted · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.6%−1.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    50.7%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    50.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:24PITT 4th & 1 at PITT 15, up 9
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%−2.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:02VT 4th & 6 at VT 29, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%−1.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:53PITT 4th & 10 at PITT 30, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%−2.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:25PITT 4th & 10 at VT 35, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.1%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.4%
    45% to make
    Punt
    62.2%−1.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:25VT 4th & 1 at PITT 1, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    28.8%−2.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    21.3%−10.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:07VT 4th & 12 at PITT 21, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%−2.2
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.7%
    74% to make
    Punt
    4.8%−8.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00VT 4th & 4 at PITT 23, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%−0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    -0.9%−1.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:59PITT 4th & 3 at VT 19, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%−0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    98.3%−1.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5VT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 8:13VT Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:33PITT Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:36VT Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:29PITT Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:43PITT Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:20PITT Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:39PITT Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PITTDrive 1FG
14 plays · 71 yds · 3:1638% → 39%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
37.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 8 yds to the Pitt 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
37.7%
Vincent Davis run for 3 yds to the Pitt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
37.7%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Shocky Jacques-LouisSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
37.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to DJ Turner for 6 yds to the Pitt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+7
37.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to DJ Turner for 7 yds to the Pitt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
37.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Tre Tipton for 11 yds to the VTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
37.7%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the VTech 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
37.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Vincent Davis for 15 yds to the VTech 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
37.7%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the VTech 15Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+11
37.7%
Vincent Davis run for 11 yds to the VTech 4Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
37.7%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Shocky Jacques-Louis, broken up by Brion MurraySimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
37.7%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Shocky Jacques-LouisSimilar
Q1 11:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
39.4%
Alex Kessman 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
39.3%
Khalil Herbert run for 6 yds to the VTech 31Similar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
39.2%
Khalil Herbert run for 2 yds to the VTech 33Similar
Q1 11:44
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
39.2%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Khalil Herbert for 1 yd to the VTech 34Similar
Q1 11:44
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
39.4%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 45 yds, fair catch by DJ Turner at the Pitt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
40.1%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to DJ TurnerSimilar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
40.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to DJ Turner for no gain to the Pitt 21Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 10
OWN 21
0
39.8%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Shocky Jacques-Louis, broken up by Armani ChatmanSimilar
Q1 10:00
4TH & 10
OWN 21
0
39.7%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 4FUMBLE
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
40.2%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Tre Turner for 12 yds to the Pitt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-10
40.0%
Tre Turner run for a loss of 10 yards to the VTech 44 Tre Turner fumbled, recovered by Pitt Patrick Jones IISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5INT
2 plays · -15 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-15
41.2%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Patrick Jones II) to the Pitt 41Similar
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-3
40.9%
Kenny Pickett pass intercepted Chamarri Conner return for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 6DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
50
0
40.1%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Tre TurnerSimilar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 10
50
+4
40.3%
Khalil Herbert run for 4 yds to the Pitt 46Similar
Q1 8:35
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+3
40.2%
Hendon Hooker run for 3 yds to the Pitt 43Similar
Q1 8:35
4TH & 3
OPP 43
+2
40.5%
Hendon Hooker run for 2 yds to the Pitt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7FG
11 plays · 47 yds · 3:3042% → 46%
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
41.7%
A.J. Davis rush for 13 yards to the VT46 (Brion Murray), PENALTY UP illegal shift 5 yards to the UP36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+16
41.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to DJ Turner for 16 yds to the VTech 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+14
42.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to DJ Turner for 14 yds to the VTech 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
42.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Vincent Davis for 6 yds to the VTech 28Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 4
OPP 28
0
42.3%
Vincent Davis run for no gain to the VTech 28Similar
Q1 5:13
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+9
43.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to DJ Turner for 9 yds to the VTech 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
43.3%
Kenny Pickett run for no gain to the VTech 19Similar
Q1 5:13
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+7
43.3%
Kenny Pickett run for 7 yds to the VTech 12Similar
Q1 5:13
3RD & 3
OPP 12
0
42.9%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Taysir MackSimilar
Q1 3:38
4TH & 3
OPP 12
+30
45.5%
Alex Kessman 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
44.6%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to James Mitchell for 8 yds to the VTech 24Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+1
44.2%
Jalen Holston run for 1 yd to the VTech 25Similar
Q1 3:38
3RD & 1
OWN 25
0
44.4%
Quincy Patterson II run for no gain to the VTech 25Similar
Q1 3:38
4TH & 1
OWN 25
0
45.1%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Pitt 25 , DJ Turner returns for no gain to the Pitt 25 PITTSBURGH Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9FG
9 plays · 41 yds · 2:4546% → 49%
Q1 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
46.4%
Kenny Pickett run for 7 yds to the Pitt 32Similar
Q1 1:24
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
47.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to DJ Turner for 6 yds to the Pitt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
47.2%
Vincent Davis run for 6 yds to the Pitt 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+17
48.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 17 yds to the VTech 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
48.9%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to DJ Turner, broken up by Devin TaylorSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+5
48.8%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, offside defense (Jaylen Griffin) to the VTech 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 34
-3
49.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to DJ Turner for a loss of 3 yards DJ Turner fumbled, forced by Nadir Thompson, recovered by Pitt Taysir MackSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 34
0
48.5%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Tre TiptonSimilar
Q2 13:39
4TH & 5
OPP 34
+52
49.4%
Alex Kessman 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 10PUNT
11 plays · 37 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
50.7%
Hendon Hooker run for 1 yd to the VTech 26Similar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+38
50.8%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to James Mitchell for 38 yds to the Pitt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
49.0%
Quincy Patterson II pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 5 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+4
48.0%
Jalen Holston run for 4 yds to the Pitt 27Similar
Q2 13:39
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+4
48.7%
Jalen Holston run for 4 yds to the Pitt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
48.0%
Quincy Patterson II pass incomplete to Tayvion RobinsonSimilar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-15
48.3%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Pitt 38Similar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 25
OPP 38
-1
49.7%
Khalil Herbert run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 39Similar
Q2 13:39
3RD & 26
OPP 39
+1
50.6%
Quincy Patterson II run for 1 yd to the Pitt 38Similar
Q2 13:39
4TH & 25
OPP 38
0
51.3%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 32 yds, downed at the Pitt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0052% → 51%
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
51.9%
A.J. Davis run for 1 yd to the Pitt 7Similar
Q2 10:24
2ND & 9
OWN 7
+8
51.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to DJ Turner for 8 yds to the Pitt 15Similar
Q2 10:24
3RD & 1
OWN 15
0
51.5%
A.J. Davis run for no gain to the Pitt 15Similar
Q2 10:24
4TH & 1
OWN 15
0
50.9%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tre Turner at the VTech 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 12TD
1 play · 55 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
44.6%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Tre Turner for 55 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK) PITTSBURGH Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:4048% → 60%
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
47.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jaylon Barden for 12 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+25
48.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 25 yds to the VTech 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
50.3%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Shocky Jacques-LouisSimilar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+9
50.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Vincent Davis for 9 yds to the VTech 29Similar
Q2 8:13
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+6
49.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to DJ Turner for 6 yds to the VTech 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
50.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jaylon Barden for 7 yds to the VTech 16Similar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+15
50.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to DJ Turner for 15 yds to the VTech 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
59.9%
Vincent Davis run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 14TD
9 plays · 73 yds · 1:5743% → 56%
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+39
57.3%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 39 yds to the Pitt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
54.2%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Raheem Blackshear, PENALTY UP substitution infraction 5 yards to the UP29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 5
OPP 29
0
53.7%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Tre TurnerSimilar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 5
OPP 29
0
53.7%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Tre Turner, broken up by Marquis WilliamsSimilar
Q2 5:33
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+19
54.9%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 19 yds to the Pitt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
54.4%
Jalen Holston run for 3 yds to the Pitt 7Similar
Q2 3:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
43.7%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Tre Turner for 7 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 2:0750% → 64%
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
50.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Vincent Davis for 4 yds to the Pitt 39Similar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+27
51.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jaylon Barden for 27 yds to the VTech 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
53.5%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to DJ TurnerSimilar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+5
53.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Tre Tipton for 5 yds to the VTech 29Similar
Q2 3:36
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+8
52.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jaylon Barden for 8 yds to the VTech 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
53.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Tre Tipton for 7 yds to the VTech 14Similar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+3
53.4%
Kenny Pickett run for 3 yds to the VTech 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
63.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jaylon Barden for 11 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:2739% → 38%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
60.7%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Tayvion RobinsonSimilar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
61.0%
Hendon Hooker run for 4 yds to the VTech 29Similar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
61.1%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Kaleb Smith for 5 yds to the VTech 34Similar
Q2 1:02
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
60.5%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the VTech 29Similar
Q2 1:02
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
62.0%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 41 yds, fair catch by DJ Turner at the Pitt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0065% → 63%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
65.1%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Shocky Jacques-LouisSimilar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
64.7%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to DJ TurnerSimilar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
63.7%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Taysir MackSimilar
Q2 0:53
4TH & 10
OWN 30
0
62.9%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the VTech 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 18END OF HALF
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0640% → 40%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
60.1%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 6 yds to the VTech 28Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 4
OWN 28
-8
60.5%
Hendon Hooker sacked by Cam Bright for a loss of 8 yards to the VTech 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 19INT
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:0038% → 39%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
62.4%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Khalil Herbert for 17 yds to the VTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-20
60.9%
Hendon Hooker pass intercepted Jason Pinnock return for 20 yds to the VTech 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 2:0166% → 72%
Q3 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
66.1%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Amare Barno for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 37Similar
Q3 14:26
2ND & 12
OPP 37
+10
65.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 10 yds to the VTech 27Similar
Q3 14:26
3RD & 2
OPP 27
-8
65.0%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Justus Reed for a loss of 8 yards to the VTech 35Similar
Q3 12:25
4TH & 10
OPP 35
+53
72.3%
Alex Kessman 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 21DOWNS
10 plays · 74 yds · 0:0029% → 31%
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
70.6%
Hendon Hooker run for 7 yds to the VTech 32Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+30
69.5%
Khalil Herbert run for 30 yds to the Pitt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+19
68.7%
Khalil Herbert run for 19 yds to the Pitt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
68.7%
Hendon Hooker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+15
66.9%
Hendon Hooker run for 15 yds to the Pitt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
66.9%
Jalen Holston run for 3 yds to the Pitt 1Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
66.9%
Jalen Holston run for no gain to the Pitt 1Similar
Q3 12:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
68.2%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Khalil Herbert, broken up by Erick HallettSimilar
Q3 12:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
69.0%
Hendon Hooker run for no gain to the Pitt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 22TD
4 plays · 99 yds · 1:1276% → 91%
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
75.6%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Shocky Jacques-Louis PITTSBURGH Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+10
75.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to DJ Turner for 10 yds to the Pitt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+25
75.7%
A.J. Davis run for 25 yds to the Pitt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
90.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to DJ Turner for 64 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 23MISSED FG
7 plays · 44 yds · 1:3614% → 13%
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
85.7%
Khalil Herbert run for 7 yds to the VTech 42Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+39
85.3%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Khalil Herbert for 39 yds to the Pitt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
83.7%
Hendon Hooker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-2
84.0%
Jalen Holston run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 21Similar
Q3 8:43
3RD & 12
OPP 21
0
85.5%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to James Mitchell, broken up by Erick HallettSimilar
Q3 7:07
4TH & 12
OPP 21
+38
87.4%
Brian Johnson 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 24TD
14 plays · 79 yds · 6:4792% → 99%
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
91.5%
Shocky Jacques-Louis run for 8 yds to the Pitt 29Similar
Q3 7:07
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+17
91.7%
Vincent Davis run for 17 yds to the Pitt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
92.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Tre Tipton for 15 yds to the VTech 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
92.0%
Kenny Pickett run for 3 yds to the VTech 36Similar
Q3 7:07
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+7
92.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to DJ Turner for 7 yds to the VTech 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
92.1%
Vincent Davis run for 5 yds to the VTech 24Similar
Q3 7:07
2ND & 5
OPP 24
0
92.1%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Daniel Moraga PITTSBURGH Penalty, illegal shift ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 7:07
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+7
91.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Vincent Davis for 7 yds to the VTech 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
93.4%
Vincent Davis run for 4 yds to the VTech 13Similar
Q3 2:46
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+2
93.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 2 yds to the VTech 11Similar
Q3 2:46
3RD & 4
OPP 11
+4
93.2%
Kenny Pickett run for 4 yds to the VTech 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
93.4%
Vincent Davis run for 6 yds to the VTech 1Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.2%
Kenny Pickett run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 25DOWNS
11 plays · 53 yds · 0:201% → 1%
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
99.2%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Drake DeIuliis for 14 yds to the VTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
99.2%
Hendon Hooker run for 13 yds to the Pitt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-12
99.2%
Hendon Hooker sacked by Cam Bright for a loss of 12 yards to the VTech 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 22
OWN 42
+9
99.2%
Hendon Hooker run for 9 yds to the Pitt 49Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 49
+5
99.3%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, offside defense (Calijah Kancey) to the Pitt 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+15
99.2%
Hendon Hooker run for 15 yds to the Pitt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
99.1%
Khalil Herbert run for 5 yds to the Pitt 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 24
0
99.1%
Khalil Herbert run for no gain to the Pitt 24Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+1
99.1%
Hendon Hooker run for 1 yd to the Pitt 23Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+3
99.0%
Hendon Hooker run for 3 yds to the Pitt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 26TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 8:20100% → 100%
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
99.5%
Shocky Jacques-Louis run for a loss of 4 yards to the Pitt 16Similar
Q4 10:59
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+1
99.5%
A.J. Davis run for 1 yd to the Pitt 17Similar
Q4 10:59
3RD & 13
OWN 17
+16
99.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to DJ Turner for 16 yds to the Pitt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
99.5%
A.J. Davis run for no gain to the Pitt 33Similar
Q4 10:59
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
99.5%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to DJ TurnerSimilar
Q4 10:59
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+5
99.5%
A.J. Davis run for 5 yds to the Pitt 38Similar
Q4 10:59
4TH & 5
OWN 38
+5
99.5%
Kirk Christodoulou punt 31 yards to the VT31, downed, PENALTY VT illegal formation (Tyler Matheny) 5 yards to the UP43, 1ST DOWN UP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+31
99.6%
A.J. Davis run for 31 yds to the VTech 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
99.6%
A.J. Davis run for 5 yds to the VTech 21Similar
Q4 10:59
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+1
99.6%
A.J. Davis run for 1 yd to the VTech 20Similar
Q4 10:59
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+1
99.6%
A.J. Davis run for 1 yd to the VTech 19Similar
Q4 10:59
4TH & 3
OPP 19
+14
99.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jake Zilinskas for 14 yds to the VTech 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
99.6%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, false start (DJ Turner) to the VTech 10Similar
Q4 10:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
99.6%
A.J. Davis run for 9 yds to the VTech 1Similar
Q4 2:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
A.J. Davis run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 27END OF GAME
7 plays · 42 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
99.9%
Quincy Patterson II pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 7 yds to the VTech 29Similar
Q4 2:39
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+10
99.9%
Quincy Patterson II run for 10 yds to the VTech 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
99.9%
Jalen Holston run for 8 yds to the VTech 47Similar
Q4 2:39
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+6
99.9%
Quincy Patterson II pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 6 yds to the Pitt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
99.9%
Quincy Patterson II run for no gain to the Pitt 47Similar
Q4 2:39
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+11
99.9%
Jalen Holston run for 11 yds to the Pitt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:43
Kenny Pickett pass complete to DJ Turner for 64 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)
+15.2
TD · Q2 3:36
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Tre Turner for 7 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK)
-10.7
TD · Q2 1:29
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jaylon Barden for 11 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)
+10.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com