2020 · Week 12 · Nov 20, 2020 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadSYR aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreSYR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:23 · Ryan Harwell punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Nykeim Johnson at the Syrac 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q2 6:08: Malik Cunningham pass complete to Braden Smith for 16 yds to the Syrac 15 for a 1ST down — LOU win probability +1.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:36: Jalen Mitchell run for 2 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +3.9 pts (now 92%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 1:19: Malik Cunningham pass complete to Josh Johnson for 6 yds to the Syrac 45 — LOU win probability +1.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:31: Malik Cunningham run for 4 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +6.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:45: Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 19 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +1.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8SYR made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q1 13:06SYR 4th & 6 at SYR 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snapGo for it10.9%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.0%average punt
- Q1 8:42LOU 4th & 2 at SYR 32, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 87.8% before the snapGo for it87.8%57% to convertField goalTheir call87.7%−0.151% to makePunt87.7%−0.2average punt
- Q1 7:46SYR 4th & 6 at SYR 39, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snapGo for it12.1%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.1%average punt
- Q1 3:36SYR 4th & 8 at LOU 45, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.3% before the snapGo for it13.3%−0.134% to convertField goal13.1%−0.225% to makePuntTheir call13.4%average punt
- Q2 14:07LOU 4th & 5 at SYR 41, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call85.2%42% to convertField goal84.9%−0.332% to makePunt85.0%−0.2average punt
- Q2 6:25LOU 4th & 11 at SYR 22, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.5% before the snapGo for it81.5%−0.725% to convertField goalTheir call82.3%72% to makePunt79.3%−3.0average punt
- Q2 1:25SYR 4th & 5 at LOU 49, down 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call9.9%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt9.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 13:22LOU 4th & 5 at LOU 14, up 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.3% before the snapGo for it96.1%−0.440% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.4%average punt
- Q3 12:21SYR 4th & 16 at SYR 19, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snapGo for it3.2%−0.814% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.0%average punt
- Q3 10:50LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 39, up 20Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt96.5%−0.6average punt
- Q3 4:37SYR 4th & 12 at SYR 14, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.422% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q4 12:23LOU 4th & 12 at SYR 15, up 27Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.6%−0.221% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%83% to makePunt99.1%−0.7average punt
- Q4 10:39SYR 4th & 5 at SYR 39, down 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 8:41LOU 4th & 8 at LOU 31, up 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 6:15SYR 4th & 4 at LOU 38, down 30Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%48% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.138% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 1:23LOU 4th & 26 at SYR 40, up 30Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.17% to convertField goal99.9%34% to makePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q2 3:36LOU Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.8%97% to makeGo for two89.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:31LOU Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.0%97% to makeGo for two93.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:45LOU Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSYRDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:438% → 9%
LOUDrive 2FG10 plays · 38 yds · 4:2092% → 91%
Q1 12:27
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+2
91.3%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 2 yds to the Lvile 31Similar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+10
91.1%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 10 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:31
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+15
90.8%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jalen Mitchell for 15 yds to the Syrac 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 14 yds · 0:5110% → 10%
Q1 7:46
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
90.3%
Nolan Cooney punt for 42 yds , Rodjay Burns returns for no gain to the Lvile 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4INT3 plays · 19 yds · 1:0890% → 90%
Q1 6:31
2ND & 8
OWN 42
-46
90.1%
Malik Cunningham pass intercepted Garrett Williams return for 31 yds to the LOUISVILLE 31 SYRACUSE Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Syrac 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 5PUNT6 plays · 12 yds · 2:4910% → 11%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6FUMBLE14 plays · 72 yds · 6:2789% → 88%
Q1 1:38
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+9
88.3%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 9 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
88.2%
Cunningham, Malik pass incomplete to Martin, Duane, PENALTY SYRACUSE face mask 15 yards to the SYRACUSE46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LOUISVILLE.Similar
Q2 14:07
4TH & 5
OPP 41
+13
87.6%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Braden Smith for 13 yds to the Syrac 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-3
87.8%
Malik Cunningham sacked by Mikel Jones for a loss of 3 yards to the Syrac 20 Malik Cunningham fumbled, forced by Mikel Jones, recovered by Syrac Ja'Had Carter , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 7INT4 plays · 15 yds · 1:1913% → 14%
LOUDrive 8FG8 plays · 29 yds · 4:1187% → 88%
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
87.0%
Hall, Hassan rush for 2 yards to the SYRACUSE49, PENALTY LOUISVILLE holding (Bentley, Cole) 10 yards to the LOUISVILLE39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:07
1ST & 20
OWN 39
+10
86.2%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Josh Johnson for 10 yds to the Lvile 49Similar
Q2 9:29
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+16
86.5%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Josh Johnson for 16 yds to the Syrac 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+14
86.9%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Braden Smith for 14 yds to the Syrac 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9TD7 plays · 31 yds · 2:3289% → 92%
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+16
88.8%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Braden Smith for 16 yds to the Syrac 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+4
88.6%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Braden Smith for 4 yds to the Syrac 9Similar
Q2 4:31
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+5
88.2%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jalen Mitchell for 5 yds to the Syrac 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
88.5%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Duane Martin for 2 yds to the Syrac 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 10DOWNS9 plays · 29 yds · 2:069% → 10%
LOUDrive 11TD7 plays · 51 yds · 0:4892% → 97%
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
92.1%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Josh Johnson for 6 yds to the Syrac 45Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+42
92.3%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 39 yds to the Syrac 6 for a 1ST down SYRACUSE Penalty, Face Mask (3 yards) (3 Yards) to the Syrac 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12FUMBLE4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1097% → 97%
SYRDrive 13END OF HALF1 play · 7 yds · 0:004% → 4%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2797% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 15FUMBLE4 plays · -6 yds · 0:563% → 3%
LOUDrive 16TD11 plays · 70 yds · 5:3198% → 100%
Q3 11:31
3RD & 12
OWN 28
+11
97.5%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Braden Smith for 11 yds to the Lvile 39Similar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
97.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Braden Smith for a loss of 5 yards to the Syrac 49Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 12
OPP 19
+19
99.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 19 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 17PUNT6 plays · -2 yds · 1:560% → 0%
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
99.6%
JaCobian Morgan pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 3 yds to the Syrac 19Similar
Q3 5:11
3RD & 2
OWN 24
-10
99.7%
JaCobian Morgan sacked by Yasir Abdullah for a loss of 10 yards to the Syrac 14 JaCobian Morgan fumbled, forced by Yasir Abdullah, recovered by Syrac Airon Servais , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 4:37
4TH & 12
OWN 14
+5
99.7%
Nolan Cooney punt for 61 yds , Rodjay Burns returns for 5 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18FG14 plays · 55 yds · 7:08100% → 100%
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
99.8%
Hassan Hall run for no gain to the Syrac 42 for a 1ST down SYRACUSE Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Syrac 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-10
99.8%
Malik Cunningham sacked by Geoff Cantin-Arku for a loss of 10 yards to the Syrac 37Similar
Q3 0:31
3RD & 17
OPP 34
+21
99.8%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 21 yds to the Syrac 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-2
99.9%
Jawon Pass sacked by Geoff Cantin-Arku for a loss of 2 yards to the Syrac 15Similar
Q4 13:43
2ND & 22
OPP 25
+13
99.8%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 13 yds to the Syrac 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:330% → 0%
Q4 12:08
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+5
99.9%
Rex Culpepper pass complete to Anthony Queeley for 5 yds to the Syrac 39Similar
Q4 10:39
4TH & 5
OWN 39
+32
99.9%
Nolan Cooney punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LOUISVILLE 24 SYRACUSE Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:53100% → 100%
SYRDrive 21DOWNS7 plays · 32 yds · 2:210% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 22PUNT12 plays · 22 yds · 4:45100% → 100%
Q4 5:24
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+10
99.9%
Evan Conley pass complete to Roscoe Johnson for 10 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+25
99.9%
Evan Conley pass complete to Duane Martin for 25 yds to the Syrac 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-10
99.9%
Robbins, Aidan rush for 2 yards to the SYRACUSE22, PENALTY LOUISVILLE holding 10 yards to the SYRACUSE34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 19
OPP 33
+8
99.9%
Evan Conley pass complete to Josh Johnson for 8 yds to the Syrac 25Similar
Q4 1:33
3RD & 11
OPP 25
-10
99.9%
Evan Conley sacked by Caleb Okechukwu for a loss of 10 yards to the Syrac 35Similar
Q4 1:23
4TH & 26
OPP 40
0
100.0%
Ryan Harwell punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Nykeim Johnson at the Syrac 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 23END OF 4TH QUARTER3 plays · 12 yds · 1:140% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:31
Malik Cunningham run for 4 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)
+6
TD · Q2 3:36
Jalen Mitchell run for 2 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)
+3.9
TD · Q3 6:45
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 19 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)
+1.8