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WAKE

Wake Forest 53 at North Carolina 59

UNC
2020 · Week 11 · Nov 14, 2020 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadWAKE aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreWAKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:51 · Ivan Mora punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the UNC 20 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (Ja'Qurious Conley) to the NCaro 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 172Pregame prior+10.3Home team on offense−14.4Score differential−3.9Garbage-time factor−4.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 6:56: Sam Hartman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 18 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK) — WAKE win probability +24.9 pts (now 87%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:51: Sam Howell pass complete to Michael Carter for 46 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK) — UNC win probability +17.7 pts (now 44%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:19: Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 10 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK) — UNC win probability +25.7 pts (now 69%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:11: Sam Howell run for 20 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK) — UNC win probability +23.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:57: Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 5 yds for a TD Timeout NORTH CAROLINA, clock 00:57 (Sam Hartman pass to Brandon Chapman for Two-Point Conversion) — WAKE win probability +17.6 pts (now 20%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 7 of 7WAKE made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00UNC 4th & 2 at WAKE 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    80.1%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    80.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:47WAKE 4th & 4 at WAKE 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:01UNC 4th & 9 at WAKE 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.8%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    75.5%−1.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:19UNC 4th & 12 at UNC 20, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.2%−0.9
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:49WAKE 4th & 15 at UNC 44, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    28.7%−0.8
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    29.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:24UNC 4th & 11 at UNC 41, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%−1.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:28UNC 4th & 2 at UNC 44, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    51.2%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:30WAKE 4th & 9 at UNC 23, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.7%
    70% to make
    Punt
    46.3%−6.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:30UNC 4th & 6 at UNC 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−0.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:43WAKE 4th & 4 at WAKE 31, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.0%−1.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:19UNC 4th & 7 at UNC 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%−1.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:35WAKE 4th & 6 at WAKE 23, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%−1.8
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:51WAKE 4th & 9 at WAKE 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.2%−1.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:43WAKE 4th & 8 at WAKE 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−3.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:11WAKE 4th & 9 at WAKE 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.7%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.1%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 7 of 8WAKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 7:58WAKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:47UNC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:06WAKE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:29UNC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 14:55WAKE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 12:45UNC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:28WAKE Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 6:56WAKE Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 4:43UNC Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 14:51UNC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 8:19UNC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.8%−0.8
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 4:11UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.0%−1.6
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 2:39UNC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 0:57WAKE Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    4.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    4.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1DOWNS
10 plays · 37 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
86.1%
Michael Carter run for 5 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
86.1%
Michael Carter run for 9 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
86.1%
Michael Carter run for no gain to the NCaro 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+7
86.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for 7 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+7
86.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 7 yds to the WFrst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
86.1%
Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the WFrst 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+2
86.1%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the WFrst 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+3
86.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 3 yds to the WFrst 39Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 39
+1
86.1%
Javonte Williams run for 1 yd to the WFrst 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 2TD
11 plays · 62 yds · 3:0915% → 18%
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
84.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 6 yds to the WFrst 44Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 4
OWN 44
-1
84.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 43Similar
Q1 10:24
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+9
84.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 9 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
84.3%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 12 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
84.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Nolan Groulx for 1 yd to the NCaro 35Similar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+5
84.3%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 5 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q1 10:24
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+8
84.3%
S Hartman pass incomplete to J Roberson, PENALTY NC pass interference (Morrison, T) 8 yards to the NC22, 1ST DOWN WF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+14
84.2%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 14 yds to the NCaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
84.2%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 7 yds to the NCaro 1Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.7%
Kenneth Walker III run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
83.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 75 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
83.7%
Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the WFrst 28Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
83.6%
Taylor Morin run for 3 yds to the WFrst 31Similar
Q1 7:47
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
83.6%
Sam Hartman run for 7 yds to the WFrst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
83.4%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+6
83.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 6 yds to the WFrst 44Similar
Q1 7:47
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
83.3%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Nolan GroulxSimilar
Q1 7:47
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
83.6%
Ivan Mora punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the NCaro 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5FG
8 plays · 79 yds · 2:5983% → 83%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
83.1%
Sam Howell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+9
83.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 9 yds to the NCaro 21Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 1
OWN 21
+16
82.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 16 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+54
83.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 54 yds to the WFrst 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
83.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 6 yds to the WFrst 3Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-7
83.9%
Sam Howell sacked by Miles Fox for a loss of 7 yards to the WFrst 10Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
83.7%
Javonte Williams run for 1 yd to the WFrst 9Similar
Q1 3:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
83.1%
Grayson Atkins 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 6TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 0:5017% → 21%
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
83.0%
Sam Hartman run for 3 yds to the WFrst 23Similar
Q1 2:56
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+37
83.0%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 37 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
79.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 40 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:3780% → 83%
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.2%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Michael CarterSimilar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
80.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Khafre Brown for 15 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
81.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 12 yds to the WFrst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
81.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 5 yds to the WFrst 43Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+20
81.2%
Michael Carter run for 20 yds to the WFrst 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
83.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 23 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 8TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 0:3418% → 23%
Q1 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+38
81.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 38 yds to the NCaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+10
80.5%
Kenneth Walker III run for 10 yds to the NCaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
77.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 17 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:1079% → 82%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
79.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 24Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+17
78.9%
Javonte Williams run for 17 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
80.0%
Javonte Williams run for 15 yds to the WFrst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
80.3%
Michael Carter run for no gain to the WFrst 44Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+44
82.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 44 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 10TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:1919% → 26%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
81.1%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 5 yds to the WFrst 30Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-3
80.8%
Christian Beal-Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the WFrst 27Similar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+34
81.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 34 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
79.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 3 yds to the NCaro 36Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 7
OPP 36
0
79.7%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Taylor MorinSimilar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+28
80.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 28 yds to the NCaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
79.3%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 7 yds to the NCaro 1Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
73.8%
Sam Hartman run for no gain Sam Hartman fumbled, forced by Patrice Rene, recovered by WFrst Sam Hartman for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
76.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Emery Simmons for 4 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q2 10:19
2ND & 6
OWN 26
-6
76.4%
Sam Howell sacked by Dion Bergan Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the NCaro 20Similar
Q2 10:19
3RD & 12
OWN 20
0
75.5%
Sam Howell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:19
4TH & 12
OWN 20
0
75.2%
Ben Kiernan punt for 39 yds , Taylor Morin returns for no gain to the WFrst 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0027% → 25%
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
73.3%
Kenneth Walker III run for 1 yd to the WFrst 42Similar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+19
73.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Kenneth Walker III for 19 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
73.0%
Sam Hartman sacked by Chris Collins for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 44Similar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 15
OPP 44
0
73.7%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jaquarii Roberson, broken up by Trey MorrisonSimilar
Q2 8:49
3RD & 15
OPP 44
0
74.6%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Donavon Greene, broken up by Jeremiah GemmelSimilar
Q2 8:49
4TH & 15
OPP 44
0
75.4%
Ivan Mora punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the NCaro 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
73.4%
Sam Howell pass complete to Khafre Brown for 7 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+18
73.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 18 yds to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
75.2%
Michael Carter run for no gain to the NCaro 42Similar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-1
74.2%
Michael Carter run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 41Similar
Q2 7:24
3RD & 11
OWN 41
0
73.1%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Javonte WilliamsSimilar
Q2 7:24
4TH & 11
OWN 41
0
72.5%
Ben Kiernan punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WFrst 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 14TD
9 plays · 85 yds · 3:5728% → 45%
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
71.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Blake Whiteheart for 3 yds to the WFrst 18Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+1
71.6%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 1 yd to the WFrst 19Similar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+41
72.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 41 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+17
69.3%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 17 yds to the NCaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
68.3%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 6 yds to the NCaro 17Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+4
68.3%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 4 yds to the NCaro 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
68.3%
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the NCaro 11Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+10
68.3%
Kenneth Walker III run for 10 yds to the NCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
54.8%
Kenneth Walker III run for 1 yd for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15INT
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0056% → 59%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
56.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 11 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
57.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for 7 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 3
OWN 43
0
58.3%
Sam Howell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+1
57.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Michael Carter for 1 yd to the NCaro 44Similar
Q2 1:28
4TH & 2
OWN 44
+6
56.7%
Javonte Williams run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
50
0
59.0%
Sam Howell pass intercepted Ja'Sir Taylor return for no gain to the WFrst 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 16END OF HALF
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:1242% → 45%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
57.8%
Sam Hartman run for 1 yd to the WFrst 2Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+1
54.6%
Sam Hartman run for 1 yd to the WFrst 3Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 8
OWN 3
-1
54.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 17FG
10 plays · 52 yds · 2:3045% → 57%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
55.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 29 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
53.6%
Sam Hartman run for 11 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
53.6%
Sam Hartman run for 5 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+2
53.4%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 2 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+4
54.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 4 yds to the NCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
53.4%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 1 yd to the NCaro 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 23
0
53.4%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Christian Beal-Smith, broken up by Patrice ReneSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 23
0
54.1%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Nolan GroulxSimilar
Q3 12:30
4TH & 9
OPP 23
+41
43.2%
Nick Sciba 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
44.4%
Michael Carter run for 1 yd to the NCaro 26Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
44.2%
Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
44.0%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Michael CarterSimilar
Q3 12:30
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
43.5%
Ben Kiernan punt for 42 yds, downed at the WFrst 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 19TD
12 plays · 71 yds · 4:2260% → 87%
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
40.5%
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the WFrst 31Similar
Q3 11:18
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+7
40.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 7 yds to the WFrst 38Similar
Q3 11:18
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+2
39.3%
Taylor Morin run for 2 yds to the WFrst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
38.8%
Kenneth Walker III run for 5 yds to the WFrst 45Similar
Q3 11:18
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+15
38.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Nolan Groulx for 15 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
38.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 9 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q3 11:18
2ND & 1
OPP 31
0
37.8%
Kenneth Walker III run for no gain to the NCaro 31Similar
Q3 11:18
3RD & 1
OPP 31
-5
38.3%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, false start (Sean Maginn) to the NCaro 36Similar
Q3 11:18
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+7
38.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 7 yds to the NCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+11
37.9%
Kenneth Walker III run for 11 yds to the NCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
37.9%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Donavon GreeneSimilar
Q3 6:56
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+18
13.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 18 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1319% → 33%
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+50
18.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Khafre Brown for 65 yds to the UNC 10 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, illegal block (Dyami Brown) to the WFrst 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
22.8%
Sam Howell run for 4 yds to the WFrst 21Similar
Q3 6:56
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+18
22.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 18 yds to the WFrst 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
29.0%
Javonte Williams run for no gain to the WFrst 3Similar
Q3 6:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
28.2%
Sam Howell run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 4Similar
Q3 4:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
32.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 4 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
26.4%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jaquarii RobersonSimilar
Q3 4:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
26.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 6 yds to the WFrst 31Similar
Q3 4:43
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
26.7%
Sam Hartman run for no gain to the WFrst 31Similar
Q3 4:43
4TH & 4
OWN 31
-4
27.1%
Ivan Mora punt for 49 yds , Dazz Newsome returns for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
27.1%
Javonte Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 18Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 8
OWN 18
0
26.9%
Sam Howell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:19
3RD & 8
OWN 18
+10
26.2%
Howell, S sideline pass complete to Downs, J for 8 yards to the NC26, PENALTY WF holding (T Redd) 10 yards to the NC28, 1ST DOWN NC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
27.6%
Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 7
OWN 31
0
27.5%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami Brown, broken up by Ja'Sir TaylorSimilar
Q3 3:19
3RD & 7
OWN 31
0
27.2%
Sam Howell pass incomplete NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 3:19
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
26.5%
Ben Kiernan punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WFrst 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
21.7%
Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the WFrst 22Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 7
OWN 22
-4
21.7%
Sam Hartman sacked by Myles Murphy for a loss of 4 yards to the WFrst 18 WAKE FOREST Penalty, intentional grounding (Sam Hartman) to the WFrst 18Similar
Q3 1:35
3RD & 11
OWN 18
+5
22.6%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, offside defense (Myles Murphy) to the WFrst 23Similar
Q3 1:35
3RD & 6
OWN 23
0
22.1%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Donavon Greene WAKE FOREST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 1:35
4TH & 6
OWN 23
0
22.7%
Ivan Mora punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the NCaro 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 24TD
4 plays · 74 yds · 1:0323% → 44%
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
23.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 11 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
24.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 19 yds to the WFrst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
26.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Michael Carter for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 46Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+46
44.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Michael Carter for 46 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 25PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 0:0062% → 60%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
38.4%
S Hartman rush right for 4 yards to the WF29 (Surratt, C), PENALTY NC offside defense (Morrison, T) 5 yards to the WF30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+1
37.2%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 1 yd to the WFrst 31Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
37.3%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 5 yds to the WFrst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
37.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 7 yds to the WFrst 43Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 3
OWN 43
-1
36.1%
Christian Beal-Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 42Similar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
36.5%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Nolan GroulxSimilar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 4
OWN 42
-5
38.4%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 37Similar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 9
OWN 37
+53
40.5%
Ivan Mora punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the UNC 20 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (Ja'Qurious Conley) to the NCaro 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 26TD
10 plays · 89 yds · 4:2338% → 69%
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+11
37.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 11 yds to the NCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
37.9%
Michael Carter run for 5 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 5
OWN 27
0
38.7%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Emery Simmons, broken up by Traveon ReddSimilar
Q4 12:42
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+8
37.1%
Javonte Williams run for 8 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
38.8%
Javonte Williams run for 3 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+32
41.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 32 yds to the WFrst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-2
45.6%
Michael Carter run for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 32Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 12
OPP 32
+10
44.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Michael Carter for 10 yds to the WFrst 22Similar
Q4 12:42
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+12
43.4%
Javonte Williams run for 12 yds to the WFrst 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
69.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 10 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 27PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:3642% → 40%
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
57.8%
S Hartman deep pass incomplete to T Morin, PENALTY NC pass interference (Morrison, T) 15 yards to the WF40, 1ST DOWN WF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
54.5%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:19
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
55.6%
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the WFrst 42Similar
Q4 7:43
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
56.7%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:43
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
59.9%
Ivan Mora punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the NCaro 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 28TD
9 plays · 81 yds · 3:1964% → 94%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
63.5%
Sam Howell run for 4 yds to the NCaro 23Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+26
64.2%
Michael Carter run for 26 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
68.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 3 yds to the WFrst 48Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
68.9%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Khafre Brown, broken up by Caelen CarsonSimilar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+7
67.4%
Sam Howell run for 7 yds to the WFrst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+21
69.0%
Javonte Williams run for 21 yds to the WFrst 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
70.9%
Michael Carter run for no gain to the WFrst 20Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
70.9%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Khafre BrownSimilar
Q4 4:11
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+20
94.0%
Sam Howell run for 20 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 29DOWNS
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0011% → 9%
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.5%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jaquarii RobersonSimilar
Q4 4:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
89.7%
Sam Hartman run for 1 yd to the WFrst 26Similar
Q4 4:11
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
90.2%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jaquarii RobersonSimilar
Q4 4:11
4TH & 9
OWN 26
-11
90.6%
Sam Hartman sacked by Chazz Surratt for a loss of 11 yards to the WFrst 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 30TD
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:5194% → 98%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
94.2%
Javonte Williams run for no gain to the WFrst 15Similar
Q4 2:39
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
98.2%
Javonte Williams run for 15 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 31TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 1:423% → 20%
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
97.4%
Sam Hartman sacked by Raymond Vohasek for a loss of 8 yards to the WFrst 17Similar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 18
OWN 17
0
97.7%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Nolan GroulxSimilar
Q4 2:32
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+46
97.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 46 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
97.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 9 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+9
96.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 9 yds to the NCaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
96.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 7 yds to the NCaro 12Similar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+7
96.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Nolan Groulx for 7 yds to the NCaro 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
80.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 5 yds for a TD Timeout NORTH CAROLINA, clock 00:57 (Sam Hartman pass to Brandon Chapman for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 32END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:0097% → 96%
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
50
-2
96.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 48Similar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 12
OWN 48
-2
96.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:19
Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 10 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)
+25.7
TD · Q3 6:56
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 18 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)
-24.9
TD · Q4 4:11
Sam Howell run for 20 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)
+23.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com