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DUKE

Duke 20 at Virginia 38

UVA
2020 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2020 · Scott Stadium
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Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:33 · Porter Wilson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the Virg 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 66Home team on offense−1.3Pregame prior+7.6Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential−1.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:33: Brennan Armstrong run for 4 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK) — UVA win probability +6.4 pts (now 61%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q3 5:51: Chase Brice pass complete to Noah Gray for 8 yds for a TD (Charlie Hamm KICK) — DUKE win probability +18.4 pts (now 57%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:43: Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Lavel Davis Jr. for 18 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK) — UVA win probability +27.6 pts (now 76%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:59: Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Lavel Davis Jr. for 26 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK) — UVA win probability +16.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:03: Wayne Taulapapa run for 10 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK) — UVA win probability +7.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 7 of 9DUKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 12:08DUKE 4th & 7 at UVA 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.1%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    37.6%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:08UVA 4th & 9 at UVA 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:12DUKE 4th & 9 at DUKE 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.2%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 10:07UVA 4th & 1 at UVA 28, down 3
    Close callPunted · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.2%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 8:33DUKE 4th & 2 at DUKE 35, up 3
    Close callPunted · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.7%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 6:41UVA 4th & 4 at DUKE 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    61.2%−0.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    61.1%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q1 4:10DUKE 4th & 10 at DUKE 37, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%
    average punt
  8. Q1 3:47UVA 4th & 6 at UVA 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 12:33DUKE 4th & 10 at DUKE 15, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 8:55DUKE 4th & 13 at UVA 31, down 4
    Close callWent for it · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.2%−0.8
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    36.0%
    54% to make
    Punt
    35.2%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:50UVA 4th & 10 at DUKE 14, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.8%
    84% to make
    Punt
    60.5%−4.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:40DUKE 4th & 7 at UVA 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.3%
    58% to make
    Punt
    22.4%−6.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:40UVA 4th & 5 at UVA 47, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.4%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:51UVA 4th & 8 at DUKE 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%−0.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:41UVA 4th & 1 at UVA 46, up 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.1%−1.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:17DUKE 4th & 1 at DUKE 29, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.4%−1.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:03DUKE 4th & 16 at UVA 40, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    2.0%
    34% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:43UVA 4th & 11 at UVA 39, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5DUKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 1:07DUKE Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:33UVA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:55UVA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:51DUKE Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:43UVA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:59UVA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:03UVA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 2FG
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:4439% → 40%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
60.8%
Deon Jackson run for no gain to the Virg 19Similar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+5
60.8%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive offside (Mandy Alonso) to the Virg 14Similar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+2
60.8%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the Virg 12Similar
Q1 14:52
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+9
60.8%
Deon Jackson run for 9 yds to the Virg 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
60.8%
Deon Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 4Similar
Q1 14:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
60.8%
Chase Brice run for 3 yds to the Virg 1Similar
Q1 14:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-6
60.8%
Deon Jackson run for a loss of 6 yards to the Virg 7Similar
Q1 12:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
60.5%
Charlie Hamm 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0061% → 60%
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
60.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
60.6%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 1 yd to the Virg 26Similar
Q1 12:08
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
60.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:08
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+3
60.4%
Nash Griffin punt for 40 yds , Jalon Calhoun returns for 3 yds to the Duke 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
60.3%
Chase Brice pass complete to Noah Gray for 11 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
60.2%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the Duke 49Similar
Q1 11:12
2ND & 9
OWN 49
0
60.2%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Jalon Calhoun, broken up by Joey BlountSimilar
Q1 11:12
3RD & 9
OWN 49
0
60.3%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:12
4TH & 9
OWN 49
0
60.6%
Porter Wilson punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+10
60.3%
Brennan Armstrong run for 10 yds to the Virg 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
60.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete, broken up by Marquis WatersSimilar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+5
60.3%
Shane Simpson run for 5 yds to the Virg 24Similar
Q1 10:07
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+4
60.2%
Brennan Armstrong run for 4 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q1 10:07
4TH & 1
OWN 28
0
60.1%
Nash Griffin punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jalon Calhoun at the Duke 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
60.0%
Chase Brice run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 26Similar
Q1 8:33
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+6
60.1%
Chase Brice pass complete to Damond Philyaw-Johnson for 6 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q1 8:33
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+3
60.1%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q1 8:33
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
60.2%
Porter Wilson punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 7DOWNS
7 plays · 38 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
59.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 15 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
60.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Tony Poljan for 3 yds to the Virg 43Similar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+14
60.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 14 yds to the Duke 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
60.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 3 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+3
60.8%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 3 yds to the Duke 37Similar
Q1 6:41
3RD & 4
OPP 37
0
60.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Wayne TaulapapaSimilar
Q1 6:41
4TH & 4
OPP 37
0
60.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0041% → 40%
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
59.0%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
59.2%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:10
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
59.6%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:10
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
59.9%
Porter Wilson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the Virg 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q1 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
59.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Terrell Jana for 4 yds to the Virg 27Similar
Q1 3:47
2ND & 6
OWN 27
0
59.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:47
3RD & 6
OWN 27
0
58.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
Q1 3:47
4TH & 6
OWN 27
0
58.3%
Nash Griffin punt for 39 yds, downed at the Duke 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10TD
5 plays · 66 yds · 1:5041% → 47%
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
58.9%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the Duke 37Similar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+4
58.7%
Mataeo Durant run for 4 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q1 2:57
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+4
58.6%
Chase Brice pass complete to Noah Gray for 4 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
58.4%
Deon Jackson run for no gain to the Duke 45Similar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+55
52.8%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jake Marwede for 55 yds for a TD (Charlie Hamm KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:3453% → 61%
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
52.8%
Shane Simpson run for 4 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
53.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Tony Poljan for 10 yds to the Virg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
53.3%
VIRGINIA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Virg 34Similar
Q1 1:07
1ST & 15
OWN 34
+7
52.7%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 7 yds to the Virg 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+14
52.9%
Brennan Armstrong run for 14 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+18
53.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Lavel Davis Jr. for 18 yds to the Duke 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
54.2%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 2 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 25
0
54.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+5
53.4%
DUKE Penalty, Defensive offside (Chris Rumph II) to the Duke 20Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+5
53.4%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 5 yds to the Duke 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
54.2%
Brennan Armstrong run for 11 yds to the Duke 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
60.6%
Brennan Armstrong run for 4 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0043% → 41%
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
57.4%
Deon Jackson run for 3 yds to the Duke 18Similar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 7
OWN 18
-3
57.3%
Chase Brice sacked by Noah Taylor and Jahmeer Carter for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 15Similar
Q2 12:33
3RD & 10
OWN 15
0
58.2%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:33
4TH & 10
OWN 15
0
58.7%
Porter Wilson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the Virg 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13TD
8 plays · 53 yds · 2:2460% → 65%
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
59.5%
Shane Simpson run for 9 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 1
OPP 44
0
59.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:19
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+2
59.6%
Brennan Armstrong run for 2 yds to the Duke 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
59.9%
DUKE Penalty, personal foul (J'Marick Woods) to the Duke 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
60.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Terrell Jana for 5 yds to the Duke 22Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+19
60.6%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 19 yds to the Duke 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
60.6%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 2 yds to the Duke 1Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
65.3%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 1 yd for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14DOWNS
10 plays · 44 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
62.5%
Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+34
62.3%
Chase Brice pass complete to Damond Philyaw-Johnson for 34 yds to the Virg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
60.2%
Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the Virg 36Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+5
60.0%
Jordan Waters run for 5 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+3
60.1%
Deon Jackson run for 3 yds to the Virg 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
59.3%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Noah GraySimilar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
59.5%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 10
OPP 28
-3
60.5%
Chase Brice sacked by Richard Burney for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 31Similar
Q2 8:55
4TH & 13
OPP 31
0
63.1%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 4:0364% → 72%
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
64.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 7 yds to the Virg 38Similar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+5
65.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Ira Armstead for 5 yds to the Virg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+17
65.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Tony Poljan for 17 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
66.2%
Shane Simpson run for 3 yds to the Duke 37Similar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+12
66.2%
Shane Simpson run for 12 yds to the Duke 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
66.7%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 11 yds to the Duke 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
68.7%
Shane Simpson run for no gain to the Duke 14Similar
Q2 2:46
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
68.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
Q2 2:46
3RD & 10
OPP 14
0
67.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Lavel Davis Jr., broken up by Leonard JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:50
4TH & 10
OPP 14
+32
71.8%
Brian Delaney 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16INT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:1229% → 30%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.9%
Chase Brice pass incomplete, broken up by Zane ZandierSimilar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
71.1%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dennis Smith for 6 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
70.0%
Chase Brice pass intercepted D'Angelo Amos return for no gain to the Duke 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 17INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
72.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Terrell JanaSimilar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
71.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Terrell JanaSimilar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 10
OPP 44
0
70.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass intercepted Leonard Johnson return for no gain to the Duke 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 18END OF HALF
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
70.3%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jontavis Robertson for 4 yds to the Duke 20Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+6
70.5%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 6 yds to the Duke 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
70.1%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Jalon Calhoun, broken up by Charles SnowdenSimilar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-3
70.5%
Chase Brice sacked by Noah Taylor for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19FG
9 plays · 55 yds · 2:2030% → 37%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
70.2%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
70.6%
Deon Jackson run for no gain to the Duke 16Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 16
+34
71.5%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 34 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+18
67.5%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jake Bobo for 18 yds to the Virg 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
66.1%
Deon Jackson run for 3 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 29
0
65.7%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Darrell Harding Jr., broken up by De'Vante CrossSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 29
0
67.8%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Damond Philyaw-Johnson, broken up by Charles SnowdenSimilar
Q3 12:40
4TH & 7
OPP 29
+47
62.9%
Charlie Hamm 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 0:0065% → 64%
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
65.1%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 3 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
65.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Terrell JanaSimilar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+14
63.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 14 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
66.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Tony PoljanSimilar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+5
65.9%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 5 yds to the Virg 47Similar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
66.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Shane Simpson for no gain to the Virg 47Similar
Q3 12:40
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
64.4%
Nash Griffin punt for 38 yds, downed at the Duke 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21INT
7 plays · 43 yds · 0:0033% → 37%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-2
66.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Deon Jackson for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 13Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 12
OWN 13
+3
67.2%
Deon Jackson run for 3 yds to the Duke 16Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 9
OWN 16
+31
68.3%
Chase Brice pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 31 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
63.4%
Deon Jackson run for 7 yds to the Virg 46Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 3
OPP 46
0
62.4%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Damond Philyaw-JohnsonSimilar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+4
63.3%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jake Marwede for 4 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
62.8%
Chase Brice pass intercepted Brenton Nelson return for no gain to the Virg 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22INT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
68.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Lavel Davis Jr., broken up by Lummie Young IVSimilar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+1
68.0%
Brennan Armstrong run for 1 yd to the Virg 3Similar
Q3 7:30
3RD & 9
OWN 3
+5
66.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Lavel Davis Jr., PENALTY DU offside (Victor Dimukeje) 5 yards to the VA8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:30
3RD & 4
OWN 8
-3
66.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass intercepted Rocky Shelton II return for 3 yds to the Virg 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23TD
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:3739% → 57%
Q3 6:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
61.2%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the Virg 8Similar
Q3 5:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
42.8%
Chase Brice pass complete to Noah Gray for 8 yds for a TD (Charlie Hamm KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 24PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 0:0050% → 49%
Q3 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
50.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
49.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 5 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q3 5:51
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
49.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Terrell Jana for 5 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
50.6%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:51
1ST & 10
50
0
54.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Wayne Taulapapa for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 10
50
+2
54.0%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 2 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q3 5:51
3RD & 8
OPP 48
0
53.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Tavares Kelly Jr.Similar
Q3 5:51
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
49.4%
Nash Griffin punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 25INT
5 plays · 58 yds · 0:0054% → 59%
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
46.0%
Mataeo Durant run for 17 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
44.7%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+15
43.3%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Eli Pancol, PENALTY VA pass interference (Brenton Nelson) 15 yards to the VA46, 1ST DOWN DU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+24
42.4%
Deon Jackson run for 24 yds to the Virg 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
40.7%
Jalon Calhoun pass intercepted Brenton Nelson return for no gain to the Virg 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 26TD
10 plays · 94 yds · 4:0047% → 76%
Q3 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
47.2%
Brennan Armstrong run for 6 yds to the Virg 12Similar
Q3 1:43
2ND & 4
OWN 12
+3
47.8%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 3 yds to the Virg 15Similar
Q3 1:43
3RD & 1
OWN 15
+6
46.0%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 6 yds to the Virg 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
48.0%
Shane Simpson run for 5 yds to the Virg 26Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+11
48.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Shane Simpson for 11 yds to the Virg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
48.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Lavel Davis Jr., broken up by Jalen AlexanderSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+15
48.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Terrell Jana for 15 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-9
52.9%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Victor Dimukeje and Drew Jordan for a loss of 9 yards to the Virg 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 43
+39
48.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Lavel Davis Jr. for 39 yds to the Duke 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
75.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Lavel Davis Jr. for 18 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 27INT
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0032% → 36%
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
67.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dennis Smith for 15 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-7
65.4%
Chase Brice run for a loss of 7 yards to the Duke 33Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 17
OWN 33
+12
68.3%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dennis Smith for 12 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q4 12:43
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
64.2%
Chase Brice pass intercepted Joey Blount return for no gain to the Duke 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 28TD
4 plays · 49 yds · 1:2175% → 91%
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
74.9%
Keytaon Thompson pass incomplete to Brennan Armstrong, broken up by J'Marick WoodsSimilar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+9
74.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Wayne Taulapapa for 9 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q4 11:20
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+14
74.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Tony Poljan for 14 yds to the Duke 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
91.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Lavel Davis Jr. for 26 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 29INT
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.2%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Deon JacksonSimilar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-9
89.4%
Chase Brice sacked by Jowon Briggs for a loss of 9 yards to the Duke 16Similar
Q4 9:59
3RD & 19
OWN 16
0
90.2%
Chase Brice pass intercepted Nick Grant return for no gain to the Virg 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 30PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:3191% → 92%
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
90.8%
Shane Simpson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 35Similar
Q4 9:12
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+4
90.3%
Brennan Armstrong run for 4 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q4 9:12
3RD & 8
OWN 39
-5
90.6%
VIRGINIA Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the Virg 34Similar
Q4 9:12
3RD & 13
OWN 34
+12
89.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 12 yds to the Virg 46Similar
Q4 6:41
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
92.1%
Nash Griffin punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 31FUMBLE
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:159% → 9%
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
91.2%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 6 yds to the Duke 26Similar
Q4 6:32
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+1
89.9%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the Duke 27Similar
Q4 6:32
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+2
90.4%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 2 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q4 5:17
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+5
91.5%
Gunnar Holmberg run for a loss of 14 yards to the Duke 10 Gunnar Holmberg fumbled, forced by Joey Blount, recovered by Virg Matt Gahm , return for 5 yds to the Duke 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 32TD
1 play · 10 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 5:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.2%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 10 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 33DOWNS
8 plays · 35 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
97.7%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the Duke 26Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+28
97.7%
Chris Katrenick pass complete to Jarett Garner for 28 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
97.4%
Chris Katrenick pass complete to Jarett Garner for 12 yds to the Virg 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
97.0%
Chris Katrenick pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-2
97.0%
Chris Katrenick run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 36Similar
Q4 5:03
3RD & 12
OPP 36
-4
97.4%
Chris Katrenick sacked by Matt Gahm for a loss of 4 yards to the Virg 40Similar
Q4 5:03
4TH & 16
OPP 40
0
97.6%
Chris Katrenick run for no gain to the Virg 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 34PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
99.3%
Perris Jones run for 8 yds to the Virg 48Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 2
OWN 48
-7
99.4%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Tavares Kelly Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the Virg 41Similar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+3
99.3%
Perris Jones run for 3 yds to the Virg 44Similar
Q4 2:43
4TH & 6
OWN 44
-5
99.3%
VIRGINIA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Virg 39Similar
Q4 2:43
4TH & 11
OWN 39
0
99.2%
Nash Griffin punt for 43 yds , Jake Bobo returns for no gain to the Virg 15 Jake Bobo fumbled, forced by TEAM, recovered by Virg Tucker FinkelstonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 35END OF GAME
1 play · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
99.5%
TEAM run for 1 yd to the Virg 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:43
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Lavel Davis Jr. for 18 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)
+27.6
TD · Q3 5:51
Chase Brice pass complete to Noah Gray for 8 yds for a TD (Charlie Hamm KICK)
-18.4
TD · Q4 9:59
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Lavel Davis Jr. for 26 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)
+16.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com