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UNC

North Carolina 56 at Duke 24

DUKE
2020 · Week 10 · Nov 7, 2020 · Wallace Wade Stadium
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Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:43 · Deon Jackson run for 3 yds to the NCaro 22 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.5+27.30−27.3−54.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 59Home team on offense−15.1Pregame prior−28.7Score differential−9.2Garbage-time factor−1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:06: Javonte Williams run for 4 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK) — UNC win probability +3.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:43: Sam Howell pass complete to Michael Carter for 22 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK) — UNC win probability +1.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 9:32: Eli Pancol run for 22 yds for a TD (Charlie Ham KICK) — DUKE win probability +1.8 pts (now 12%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:55: Javonte Williams run for 33 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK) — UNC win probability +4.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 12:30: Mataeo Durant run for 46 yds for a TD (Charlie Ham KICK) — DUKE win probability +2.4 pts (now 4%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 7 of 8UNC made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 12:39UNC 4th & 2 at DUKE 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    75.2%−0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    74.7%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:39DUKE 4th & 9 at DUKE 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:07DUKE 4th & 10 at UNC 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:29UNC 4th & 2 at DUKE 38, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    77.1%−0.9
    38% to make
    Punt
    77.1%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:43DUKE 4th & 2 at UNC 25, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    12.9%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    12.5%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:00UNC 4th & 2 at DUKE 32, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    87.8%−0.5
    51% to make
    Punt
    87.4%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:16DUKE 4th & 11 at UNC 29, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.1%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    7.2%
    58% to make
    Punt
    6.9%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:10UNC 4th & 3 at DUKE 48, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    92.4%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:59DUKE 4th & 10 at UNC 39, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    1.7%−<0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    1.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:38UNC 4th & 2 at UNC 42, up 32
    Close callPunted · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00DUKE 4th & 18 at DUKE 29, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:08DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 43, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:37UNC 4th & 3 at UNC 27, up 39
    Close callPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:36DUKE 4th & 2 at UNC 7, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 3UNC made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 12:39UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:07UNC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:06UNC Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:43UNC Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:32DUKE Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 6:00UNC Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:55UNC Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 13:52UNC Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 12:30DUKE Touchdown, down 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 13:08UNC Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 5:36DUKE Touchdown, down 33 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1TD
9 plays · 50 yds · 2:2184% → 84%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+16
15.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 16 yds to the Duke 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+12
15.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 12 yds to the Duke 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
15.7%
Sam Howell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+13
15.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 13 yds to the Duke 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
15.7%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
15.7%
Michael Carter run for 5 yds to the Duke 4Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
15.7%
Sam Howell run for 2 yds to the Duke 2Similar
Q1 12:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
16.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for 2 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
16.3%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-7
16.3%
Chase Brice sacked by Jeremiah Gemmel for a loss of 7 yards to the Duke 18Similar
Q1 12:39
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+8
16.3%
Deon Jackson run for 8 yds to the Duke 26Similar
Q1 12:39
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+5
16.2%
Porter Wilson punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 34 , Dazz Newsome returns for 5 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3TD
3 plays · 66 yds · 1:1083% → 84%
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
16.6%
Javonte Williams run for 12 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+51
16.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Emery Simmons for 51 yds to the Duke 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
15.8%
Sam Howell run for 3 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
16.1%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the Duke 27 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Duke 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
16.3%
Deon Jackson run for 5 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+3
16.3%
Chase Brice pass complete to Noah Gray for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:07
3RD & 2
50
+3
16.3%
Deon Jackson run for 3 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
16.3%
DUKE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Duke 48Similar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 15
OWN 48
+7
16.2%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 7 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 8
OPP 45
-5
16.3%
Chase Brice run for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:07
3RD & 13
50
+3
16.1%
Chase Brice run for 3 yds to the NCaro 47Similar
Q1 10:07
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
16.1%
Porter Wilson punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 4:1684% → 88%
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
15.7%
Michael Carter run for 8 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+16
15.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Khafre Brown for 16 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
15.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Michael Carter for 10 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
15.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 47Similar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+2
15.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 2 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q1 6:22
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+7
15.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for 7 yds to the Duke 38Similar
Q1 3:29
4TH & 2
OPP 38
+5
15.9%
Javonte Williams run for 5 yds to the Duke 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+27
15.6%
Michael Carter run for 27 yds to the Duke 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
15.6%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the Duke 4Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
12.4%
Javonte Williams run for 4 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6INT
5 plays · 29 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
12.6%
Mataeo Durant run for 28 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
13.1%
Chase Brice run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 49Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 12
OPP 49
+3
13.0%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q1 2:06
3RD & 9
OPP 46
-43
13.0%
Chase Brice pass intercepted DeAndre Hollins return for 43 yds to the Duke 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7TD
3 plays · 21 yds · 0:4788% → 89%
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
12.0%
Michael Carter run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 22
0
11.9%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami Brown, broken up by Michael Carter IISimilar
Q2 14:43
3RD & 11
OPP 22
+22
10.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Michael Carter for 22 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:1110% → 12%
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
9.5%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
9.4%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q2 14:43
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+16
9.4%
Chase Brice pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 16 yds to the Duke 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
9.9%
Deon Jackson run for 3 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q2 14:43
2ND & 7
OWN 47
-7
10.0%
Chase Brice sacked by Desmond Evans for a loss of 7 yards to the Duke 40Similar
Q2 14:43
3RD & 14
OWN 40
+15
9.5%
Brice, C. sacked for loss of 7 yards to the DU33 (Fox, Tomon), PENALTY NC personal foul (Fox, Tomari) 15 yards to the NC45, 1ST DOWN DU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
10.3%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q2 14:43
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+12
10.2%
Chase Brice pass complete to Eli Pancol for 12 yds to the NCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
10.4%
Eli Pancol run for 5 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q2 14:43
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+2
10.3%
Chase Brice run for 2 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q2 14:43
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+1
10.2%
Chase Brice run for 1 yd to the NCaro 25Similar
Q2 14:43
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+3
10.1%
Deon Jackson run for 3 yds to the NCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
11.9%
Eli Pancol run for 22 yds for a TD (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 3:3289% → 91%
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
10.8%
Michael Carter run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 33Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+10
10.9%
Michael Carter run for 10 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+3
10.8%
Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
10.5%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Emery SimmonsSimilar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
10.5%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Khafre BrownSimilar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+14
10.7%
Sam Howell run for 14 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
10.4%
Javonte Williams run for 5 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 5
OPP 35
0
10.2%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dazz Newsome, broken up by Marquis WatersSimilar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+3
10.6%
Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q2 6:00
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+32
9.4%
Javonte Williams run for 32 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10DOWNS
7 plays · 46 yds · 1:447% → 6%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+47
7.0%
Chase Brice pass complete to Deon Jackson for 47 yds to the NCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
8.2%
Chase Brice pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 2 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 8
OPP 26
-3
8.1%
Deon Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 29Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 11
OPP 29
0
7.6%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Eli PancolSimilar
Q2 4:16
4TH & 11
OPP 29
0
5.8%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Noah GraySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11TD
8 plays · 71 yds · 2:1592% → 97%
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+16
7.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Emery Simmons for 16 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
7.6%
Michael Carter run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 44Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 11
OWN 44
0
7.6%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q2 4:10
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+8
7.8%
Sam Howell run for 8 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q2 4:10
4TH & 3
OPP 48
+14
8.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Michael Carter for 14 yds to the Duke 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
7.4%
Michael Carter run for 6 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 4
OPP 28
-5
7.2%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Duke 33Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+33
3.2%
Javonte Williams run for 33 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12FG
11 plays · 64 yds · 1:543% → 3%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
3.1%
Mataeo Durant run for 18 yds to the Duke 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
3.2%
Mataeo Durant run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 3
50
-1
3.1%
Chase Brice sacked by Tyrone Hopper for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 49Similar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+12
1.7%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 12 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
2.1%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+15
1.9%
Brice, C. pass incomplete to Smith, D., PENALTY NC personal foul (Fox, Tomon) 15 yards to the NC24, 1ST DOWN DU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
2.1%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Noah Gray, broken up by Cam'Ron KellySimilar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+13
2.0%
Chase Brice pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 13 yds to the NCaro 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+29
2.5%
Charlie Ham 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
2.3%
Michael Carter run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14FUMBLE
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
4.3%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the Duke 28 Deon Jackson fumbled, forced by Jeremiah Gemmel, recovered by NCaro Chazz SurrattSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15TD
3 plays · 28 yds · 1:0298% → 98%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+13
2.5%
Sam Howell run for 13 yds to the Duke 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
2.5%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the Duke 13Similar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+13
2.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 13 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:222% → 4%
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
1.9%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the Duke 28 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Duke 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
2.0%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the Duke 44Similar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+10
1.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 10 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
4.4%
Mataeo Durant run for 46 yds for a TD (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17INT
11 plays · 49 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
2.1%
Javonte Williams run for 3 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
2.1%
Sam Howell run for 1 yd to the NCaro 29Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
2.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for 9 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-6
2.0%
Sam Howell sacked by Dorian Mausi for a loss of 6 yards to the NCaro 32Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 16
OWN 32
+14
2.1%
Javonte Williams run for 14 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+15
2.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 15 yds to the Duke 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
2.0%
Michael Carter run for 1 yd to the Duke 38Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+10
2.0%
Michael Carter run for 10 yds to the Duke 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
1.9%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the Duke 26Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 8
OPP 26
0
1.9%
Sam Howell pass intercepted Michael Carter II return for no gain to the Duke 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 18DOWNS
7 plays · 51 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
1.9%
Deon Jackson run for 3 yds to the Duke 18Similar
Q3 7:59
2ND & 7
OWN 18
0
1.8%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Jarett Garner, broken up by Patrice ReneSimilar
Q3 7:59
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+43
1.8%
Chase Brice pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 28 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (Raymond Vohasek) to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
2.1%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Deon JacksonSimilar
Q3 7:59
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
2.0%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Jarett GarnerSimilar
Q3 7:59
3RD & 10
OPP 39
0
2.0%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Jarett GarnerSimilar
Q3 7:59
4TH & 10
OPP 39
+5
2.0%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jake Marwede for 5 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
1.3%
Javonte Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 36Similar
Q3 6:38
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
1.3%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dazz Newsome, broken up by Jalen Alexander NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 6:38
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+6
1.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for 6 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q3 6:38
4TH & 2
OWN 42
+5
1.5%
Ben Kiernan punt for 46 yds , Jontavis Robertson returns for 5 yds to the Duke 47 DUKE Penalty, illegal block (Jaylen Stinson) to the Duke 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 20PUNT
13 plays · 25 yds · 5:011% → 1%
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
1.4%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the Duke 5Similar
Q3 5:01
2ND & 9
OWN 5
+12
1.4%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 12 yds to the Duke 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
1.4%
Gunnar Holmberg run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 15Similar
Q3 5:01
2ND & 12
OWN 15
0
1.4%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q3 5:01
3RD & 12
OWN 15
-5
1.4%
DUKE Penalty, false start (Devery Hamilton) to the Duke 10Similar
Q3 5:01
3RD & 17
OWN 10
+17
1.4%
Mataeo Durant run for 17 yds to the Duke 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
1.5%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 4 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q3 5:01
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+6
1.4%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 6 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
1.5%
Holmberg, G. pass complete to Calhoun, J. for 20 yards to the NC43, out-of-bounds (Morrison, T), PENALTY DU holding (Holman, C.) 10 yards to the DU27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:01
1ST & 20
OWN 27
+6
1.4%
Deon Jackson run for 6 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q3 5:01
2ND & 14
OWN 33
-8
1.4%
Gunnar Holmberg sacked by Chris Collins for a loss of 8 yards to the Duke 25Similar
Q3 5:01
3RD & 22
OWN 25
+4
1.4%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 4 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 18
OWN 29
0
0.5%
Porter Wilson punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the NCaro 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 1:4799% → 100%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
0.6%
Javonte Williams run for no gain to the NCaro 35Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+12
0.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 12 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
0.5%
Javonte Williams run for 4 yds to the Duke 49Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+37
0.5%
Javonte Williams run for 37 yds to the Duke 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
0.4%
Michael Carter run for 12 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
0.3%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 14 yds to the Duke 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
0.3%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 5 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q4 13:08
2ND & 5
OWN 44
-1
0.3%
Gunnar Holmberg run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 43Similar
Q4 13:08
3RD & 6
OWN 43
0
0.3%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Dennis Smith, broken up by Obi EgbunaSimilar
Q4 13:08
4TH & 6
OWN 43
+10
0.3%
Porter Wilson punt for 47 yds , Dazz Newsome returns for 10 yds to the NCaro 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
0.4%
Jacolby Criswell run for 7 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
0.4%
Josh Henderson run for no gain to the NCaro 27Similar
Q4 11:37
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
0.4%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Josh Henderson for no gain to the NCaro 27Similar
Q4 11:37
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+15
0.4%
Ben Kiernan punt for 39 yds , Jontavis Robertson returns for 15 yds to the Duke 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 24TD
10 plays · 51 yds · 4:000% → 0%
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
0.2%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 11 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-9
0.2%
Gunnar Holmberg sacked by Chris Collins for a loss of 9 yards to the NCaro 49Similar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 19
OPP 49
+14
0.2%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 14 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q4 9:36
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+5
0.2%
Mataeo Durant run for 5 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
0.2%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 15 yds to the NCaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
0.2%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Eli Pancol for 7 yds to the NCaro 8Similar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+1
0.2%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 1 yd to the NCaro 7Similar
Q4 9:36
3RD & 2
OPP 7
0
0.2%
Jordan Waters run for no gain to the NCaro 7Similar
Q4 9:36
4TH & 2
OPP 7
+6
0.2%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Eli Pancol for 6 yds Eli Pancol fumbled, forced by Khadry Jackson, recovered by Duke Maurice McIntyre for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.2%
Jordan Waters run for 2 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 25END OF GAME
10 plays · 75 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+14
0.2%
British Brooks run for 14 yds to the NCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
0.2%
Jacolby Criswell run for 6 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+3
0.2%
British Brooks run for 3 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q4 5:33
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+3
0.2%
British Brooks run for 3 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
0.2%
D.J. Jones run for 11 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+25
0.2%
D.J. Jones run for 10 yds to the DUKE 43 for a 1ST down DUKE Penalty, personal foul (Christian Hood) to the Duke 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
0.2%
D.J. Jones run for 5 yds to the Duke 23Similar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+7
0.2%
Jace Ruder run for 7 yds to the Duke 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
0.2%
D.J. Jones run for 1 yd to the Duke 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:55
Javonte Williams run for 33 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)
-4
TD · Q1 2:06
Javonte Williams run for 4 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)
-3.2
TD · Q3 12:30
Mataeo Durant run for 46 yds for a TD (Charlie Ham KICK)
+2.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com