2020 · Week 10 · Nov 7, 2020 · Notre Dame Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadCLEM aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreCLEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:58 · Jay Bramblett punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Amari Rodgers at the Clem 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 4:12: D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for 10 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +20.8 pts (now 60%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 3:33: Travis Etienne run for 3 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +31.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:22: Ian Book pass complete to Avery Davis for 4 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK) — ND win probability +38.5 pts (now 63%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
- TD · OT 0:00: D.J. Uiagalelei run for 1 yd for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +14.6 pts (now 74%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · OT 0:00: Kyren Williams run for 3 yds for a TD Kyren Williams run for 3 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK) — ND win probability +36.6 pts (now 65%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 8 of 8CLEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
- Q1 12:19CLEM 4th & 2 at CLEM 24, down 7Close callPunted · 59.6% before the snapGo for it59.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 5:55ND 4th & 6 at CLEM 7, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.4% before the snapGo for it45.2%−0.132% to convertField goalTheir call45.3%91% to makePunt43.5%−1.8average punt
- Q2 13:09ND 4th & 9 at CLEM 9, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.0% before the snapGo for it45.2%−0.525% to convertField goalTheir call45.7%89% to makePunt42.0%−3.7average punt
- Q2 8:32CLEM 4th & 5 at ND 8, down 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.0% before the snapGo for it49.7%−<0.134% to convertField goalTheir call49.8%90% to makePunt43.2%−6.5average punt
- Q2 5:58ND 4th & 17 at ND 31, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.0% before the snapGo for it45.9%−3.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.1%average punt
- Q2 2:41ND 4th & 12 at CLEM 27, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.9% before the snapGo for it59.9%−1.423% to convertField goalTheir call61.3%62% to makePunt56.0%−5.4average punt
- Q2 1:09CLEM 4th & 12 at ND 28, down 13Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.3% before the snapGo for it29.3%−1.123% to convertField goalTheir call30.4%60% to makePunt26.7%−3.7average punt
- Q3 12:15CLEM 4th & 9 at ND 29, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.7% before the snapGo for it30.6%−0.731% to convertField goalTheir call31.4%58% to makePunt25.1%−6.2average punt
- Q3 10:41ND 4th & 6 at ND 29, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.1% before the snapGo for it62.4%−0.739% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.1%average punt
- Q3 5:06CLEM 4th & 1 at ND 11, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call35.1%71% to convertField goal31.6%−3.587% to makePunt20.3%−14.7average punt
- Q4 11:37ND 4th & 7 at CLEM 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.6% before the snapGo for it54.6%−0.836% to convertField goalTheir call55.4%64% to makePunt41.5%−14.0average punt
- Q4 9:42CLEM 4th & 3 at ND 13, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.0% before the snapGo for it38.6%−0.950% to convertField goalTheir call39.4%85% to makePunt24.2%−15.2average punt
- Q4 9:14ND 4th & 15 at ND 20, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 51.0% before the snapGo for it43.5%−7.316% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call50.8%average punt
- Q4 2:10ND 4th & 7 at CLEM 47, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call14.4%37% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt12.0%−2.5average punt
- Q4 1:48CLEM 4th & 9 at CLEM 48, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.5% before the snapGo for it88.7%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 2 of 2CLEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q1 14:27ND Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call38.9%97% to makeGo for two38.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:11CLEM Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call56.7%97% to makeGo for two56.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:12CLEM Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call46.5%97% to makeGo for two46.3%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 3:33CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryNumbers favored go for two by 1.1 ptsKicked · madeKickTheir call78.4%−1.197% to makeGo for two79.5%45% to convert
- Q4 0:22ND Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call49.1%97% to makeGo for two41.5%−7.645% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartNDDrive 1TD2 plays · 75 yds · 0:2131% → 31%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
30.8%
Book, Ian pass complete to Wright, Brock for 8 yards to the NOTREDAME33, PENALTY CLEMSON holding (Spector, Baylon) 10 yards to the NOTREDAME35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 2PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 2:0169% → 67%
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
31.5%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Cornell Powell for 7 yds to the Clem 23Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+2
31.9%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Travis Etienne for 2 yds to the Clem 25Similar
Q1 12:19
4TH & 2
OWN 24
+5
32.9%
Will Spiers punt for 37 yds , Matt Salerno returns for 5 yds to the NDame 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3FG11 plays · 49 yds · 6:1533% → 38%
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
33.2%
Ian Book sacked by Jake Venables for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 43Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+28
34.1%
Ian Book pass complete to Javon McKinley for 28 yds to the Clem 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+8
35.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Tommy Tremble for 8 yds to the Clem 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 4TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3462% → 64%
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
38.1%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Travis Etienne for 7 yds to the Clem 32Similar
Q1 4:50
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+14
38.7%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Joseph Ngata for 14 yds to the Clem 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
35.9%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Cornell Powell for 53 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5FG13 plays · 66 yds · 5:5137% → 44%
Q1 2:50
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
37.0%
Ian Book pass complete to Ben Skowronek for 7 yds to the NDame 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:40
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+14
38.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Tommy Tremble for 14 yds to the Clem 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
40.0%
Ian Book pass complete to Javon McKinley for 14 yds to the Clem 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 6FG12 plays · 80 yds · 4:2958% → 59%
Q2 12:53
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+27
42.6%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 27 yds to the Clem 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+35
42.6%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 35 yds to the NDame 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:29
3RD & 12
OPP 29
+16
42.8%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 16 yds to the NDame 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7PUNT8 plays · 6 yds · 2:3042% → 43%
Q2 8:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
42.2%
Ian Book pass complete to Ben Skowronek for 13 yds to the NDame 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-7
44.5%
Ian Book sacked by K.J. Henry for a loss of 7 yards to the NDame 31Similar
Q2 5:58
4TH & 17
OWN 31
0
42.8%
Jay Bramblett punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Amari Rodgers at the Clem 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 8FUMBLE TD1 play · -8 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+23
53.1%
Travis Etienne run for a loss of 8 yards Travis Etienne fumbled, recovered by NDame Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah , return for 23 yds (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 9FUMBLE4 plays · 13 yds · 0:4446% → 45%
Q2 5:06
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+3
55.5%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 10 yds Amari Rodgers fumbled, recovered by NDame Nick McCloud , return for 3 yds to the Clem 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 10FG6 plays · -2 yds · 2:1957% → 68%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-15
56.9%
Williams, Kyren rush for no gain to the CLEMSON25, PENALTY NOTREDAME personal foul (Skowronek, Ben) 15 yards to the CLEMSON40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:35
1ST & 25
OPP 40
-2
56.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Kyren Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the Clem 42Similar
Q2 3:10
3RD & 22
OPP 37
+10
57.4%
Ian Book pass complete to Tommy Tremble for 10 yds to the Clem 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 11FG7 plays · 47 yds · 1:2634% → 39%
NDDrive 12DOWNS10 plays · 36 yds · 1:0562% → 62%
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+37
62.4%
Jonathan Doerer 57 yd FG RETURNED , Travis Etienne return for 37 yds to the Clem 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 13FG10 plays · 36 yds · 2:4041% → 42%
Q3 14:30
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+8
59.6%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to E.J. Williams for 8 yds to the Clem 44Similar
Q3 13:55
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+15
59.0%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 15 yds to the NDame 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+11
61.0%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Cornell Powell for 11 yds to the NDame 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
59.9%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Travis Etienne for 1 yd to the NDame 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1960% → 58%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 15TD14 plays · 60 yds · 6:2342% → 60%
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
57.8%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 8 yds to the Clem 48Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+7
56.0%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 7 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+8
56.7%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Travis Etienne for 8 yds to the NDame 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
55.9%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Travis Etienne for 5 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+7
57.8%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Travis Etienne for 7 yds to the NDame 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+6
59.2%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Braden Galloway for 6 yds to the NDame 11Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
39.9%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for 10 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16FUMBLE7 plays · 68 yds · 2:4251% → 57%
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+45
50.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Javon McKinley for 45 yds to the Clem 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:35
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+7
55.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Michael Mayer for 7 yds to the Clem 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+6
56.9%
Ian Book run for 6 yds Ian Book fumbled, recovered by Clem Baylon SpectorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 17PUNT3 plays · 7 yds · 0:3953% → 53%
NDDrive 18FG7 plays · 31 yds · 3:0856% → 68%
Q4 13:45
3RD & 11
OWN 42
+29
53.0%
Ian Book pass complete to Michael Mayer for 29 yds to the Clem 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 19FG6 plays · 58 yds · 1:4837% → 53%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+51
63.1%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Cornell Powell for 51 yds to the NDame 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20PUNT6 plays · -5 yds · 0:2055% → 51%
Q4 9:14
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
51.3%
Jay Bramblett punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Amari Rodgers at the Clem 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 21TD14 plays · 74 yds · 5:3851% → 89%
Q4 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+9
49.8%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for 9 yds to the Clem 35Similar
Q4 8:00
4TH & 1
OWN 35
+5
50.8%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Defensive Offside (Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa) to the Clem 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:11
2ND & 13
OWN 48
+16
46.6%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 16 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+6
43.5%
Uiagalelei, D.J. pass incomplete to Spector, Brannon, PENALTY NOTREDAME pass interference 6 yards to the NOTREDAME30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON.Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 11
OPP 18
+15
41.9%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Cornell Powell for 15 yds to the NDame 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 22DOWNS7 plays · 28 yds · 1:2020% → 16%
CLEMDrive 23PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:2190% → 94%
NDDrive 24TD8 plays · 91 yds · 1:1914% → 63%
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+10
13.5%
Ian Book pass complete to Javon McKinley for 10 yds to the NDame 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+53
15.2%
Ian Book pass complete to Avery Davis for 53 yds to the Clem 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
24.0%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Ben Skowronek, broken up by Baylon SpectorSimilar
Q4 0:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
62.5%
Ian Book pass complete to Avery Davis for 4 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 25END OF 4TH QUARTER2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 26TD2 plays · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 74%
NDDrive 27TD4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0028% → 65%
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+15
28.1%
Ian Book pass complete to Michael Mayer for 15 yds to the Clem 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
28.1%
Ian Book pass complete to Javon McKinley for 5 yds to the Clem 3Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
64.7%
Kyren Williams run for 3 yds for a TD Kyren Williams run for 3 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 28TD9 plays · 25 yds · 0:0065% → 82%
OT2 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 25
-9
64.5%
Ian Book run for 1 yd to the Clem 25 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Clem 35Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 20
OPP 35
+15
62.5%
CLEMSON Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Clem 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+10
62.3%
Ian Book pass complete to Ben Skowronek for 10 yds to the Clem 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 29Uncategorized4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0020% → 9%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-9
80.4%
D.J. Uiagalelei sacked by Adetokunbo Ogundeji and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah for a loss of 9 yards to the NDame 34Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 19
OPP 34
-5
84.9%
D.J. Uiagalelei sacked by Adetokunbo Ogundeji for a loss of 5 yards to the NDame 39Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 24
OPP 39
0
90.5%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass incomplete to Davis Allen, broken up by Shaun CrawfordSimilar
OT2 0:00
4TH & 24
OPP 39
+13
91.4%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Braden Galloway for 13 yds Braden Galloway fumbled, recovered by NDame Nick McCloudSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:22
Ian Book pass complete to Avery Davis for 4 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)
+38.5
TD · OT 0:00
Kyren Williams run for 3 yds for a TD Kyren Williams run for 3 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)
+36.6
TD · Q4 3:33
Travis Etienne run for 3 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK)
-31.2