2020 · Week 9 · Oct 31, 2020 · Bobby Dodd Stadium
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Win probability · GT
modelGT aheadND aheadconfidence bandkey playGT scoreND score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:44 · Pressley Harvin III punt for 58 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 14:42: Zamari Walton 93 Yd Fumble Return (Jude Kelley Kick) — GT win probability +2.8 pts (now 17%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:47: Kyren Williams 2 Yd Run (Jonathan Doerer Kick) — ND win probability +3.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:43: Kyren Williams 4 Yd Run (Jonathan Doerer Kick) — ND win probability +6.9 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:59: C'Bo Flemister 3 Yd Run (Jonathan Doerer Kick) — ND win probability +3.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
- TD · Q4 7:15: Jordan Mason 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — GT win probability +2.8 pts (now 4%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
GT made the numbers' call on 5 of 7ND made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 3:35GT 4th & 13 at GT 36, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snapGo for it13.2%−0.420% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.7%average punt
- Q2 8:58GT 4th & 1 at GT 34, down 7Close callPunted · 16.3% before the snapGo for it16.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.1%−0.6average punt
- Q2 7:07ND 4th & 10 at ND 35, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.3% before the snapGo for it82.8%−0.829% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.7%average punt
- Q2 3:59GT 4th & 2 at ND 45, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call18.4%57% to convertField goal16.7%−1.725% to makePunt17.3%−1.1average punt
- Q2 1:49ND 4th & 10 at GT 14, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.0% before the snapGo for it83.0%−0.526% to convertField goalTheir call83.5%84% to makePunt80.4%−3.2average punt
- Q3 8:15GT 4th & 23 at GT 27, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.1% before the snapGo for it8.2%−1.57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.7%average punt
- Q3 6:47ND 4th & 8 at ND 39, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.7% before the snapGo for it91.6%−0.434% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.0%average punt
- Q3 2:31GT 4th & 22 at ND 26, down 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.2% before the snapGo for it7.3%−2.07% to convertField goalTheir call9.3%64% to makePunt5.2%−4.1average punt
- Q4 11:44GT 4th & 6 at GT 42, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.8%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.9%average punt
- Q4 9:57ND 4th & 6 at ND 24, up 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.6% before the snapGo for it98.5%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.6%average punt
- Q4 5:38GT 4th & 14 at ND 46, down 18Close callWent for it · 2.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.1%−0.219% to convertField goal2.3%−<0.123% to makePunt2.3%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GT made the numbers' call on 1 of 2ND made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 6:16ND Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.5%97% to makeGo for two86.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:42GT Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call17.7%97% to makeGo for two17.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:47ND Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.5%97% to makeGo for two83.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:43ND Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.5%97% to makeGo for two90.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:59ND Touchdown, up 23 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call98.3%−0.197% to makeGo for two98.4%45% to convert
- Q4 7:15GT Touchdown, down 18 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick3.5%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call3.2%−0.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartNDDrive 1TD17 plays · 81 yds · 8:1389% → 88%
Q1 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
10.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Javon McKinley for 3 yds to the NDame 22Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+5
11.0%
Ian Book pass complete to Michael Mayer for 5 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+7
11.2%
Ian Book pass complete to Michael Mayer for 7 yds to the NDame 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-10
11.5%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NDame 24Similar
Q1 11:34
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+10
12.2%
Ian Book pass complete to Javon McKinley for 10 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 13
OWN 42
+11
12.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Brock Wright for 11 yds to the GTech 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 2PUNT9 plays · 11 yds · 2:3413% → 14%
Q1 5:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
13.2%
Sims, Jeff rush for 5 yards to the GATECH30, PENALTY NOTREDAME offside (Hayes, Daelin) 5 yards to the GATECH30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 8
OWN 41
-5
14.0%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for a loss of 5 yards to the GTech 36Similar
Q1 3:42
3RD & 13
OWN 36
0
13.6%
Jeff Sims pass incomplete to Malachi Carter, broken up by Nick McCloudSimilar
Q1 3:35
4TH & 13
OWN 36
0
13.5%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Matt Salerno at the NDame 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3FUMBLE RETURN TD9 plays · 58 yds · 3:4687% → 83%
Q1 2:16
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+16
13.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Avery Davis for 16 yds to the GTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-4
13.5%
Ian Book sacked by Djimon Brooks for a loss of 4 yards to the GTech 45Similar
Q1 1:05
2ND & 14
OPP 45
+15
13.8%
Book, Ian pass sacked for loss of 5 yards to the 50 yardline (Griffin, Ja'Quon), fumble by Book, Ian recovered by GATECH at 50 yardline, PENALTY GATECH personal foul (Brooks, Djimon) 15 yards to the GATECH30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q1 0:42
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+15
13.7%
Ian Book pass complete to Javon McKinley for 15 yds to the GTech 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 4TD8 plays · 75 yds · 3:4282% → 85%
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
18.0%
Ian Book pass complete to Avery Davis for a loss of 5 yards to the NDame 20Similar
Q2 13:09
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+28
18.1%
Ian Book pass complete to Avery Davis for 13 yds to the GTech 43 for a 1ST down GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Tre Swilling) to the GTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3916% → 16%
Q2 8:58
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
16.3%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Matt Salerno at the NDame 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 11 yds · 1:4384% → 83%
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
16.3%
Ian Book pass complete to Tommy Tremble for 11 yds to the NDame 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:29
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
16.3%
Ian Book run for no gain to the NDame 35 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tommy Kraemer) declinedSimilar
Q2 7:07
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+4
16.8%
Jay Bramblett punt for 35 yds , Ahmarean Brown returns for 4 yds to the GTech 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 7DOWNS9 plays · 15 yds · 3:0117% → 18%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
16.8%
Sims, Jeff pass complete to Brown, Ahmarean for 7 yards to the GATECH41, PENALTY NOTREDAME offside (Hinish, Kurt) 5 yards to the GATECH39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
18.4%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Jordan Mason for a loss of 2 yards to the GTech 45Similar
Q2 4:35
3RD & 12
OWN 45
+10
17.1%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Jalen Camp for 10 yds to the NDame 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 8FG9 plays · 35 yds · 2:0185% → 85%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 9END OF HALF11 plays · 41 yds · 1:3415% → 15%
GTDrive 10FUMBLE6 plays · 40 yds · 1:1115% → 17%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+14
15.2%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for a loss of 1 yard to the GTech 24 for a 1ST down NOTRE DAME Penalty, Personal Foul (Drew White) to the GTech 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+39
15.9%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Jalen Camp for 39 yds to the NDame 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
17.7%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, False Start (Ryan Johnson) to the NDame 27Similar
Q3 13:39
1ST & 15
OPP 27
-8
17.2%
Jeff Sims sacked by Daelin Hayes for a loss of 8 yards to the NDame 35 Jeff Sims fumbled, forced by Daelin Hayes, recovered by NDame Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11TD6 plays · 65 yds · 2:5184% → 92%
Q3 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+31
14.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Javon McKinley for 31 yds to the GTech 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 12PUNT8 plays · 2 yds · 2:1910% → 9%
Q3 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
9.5%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for 8 yds to the GTech 33Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-8
9.5%
Jeff Sims sacked by Isaiah Foskey for a loss of 8 yards to the GTech 32Similar
Q3 8:15
4TH & 23
OWN 27
0
8.9%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Matt Salerno at the NDame 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13FUMBLE4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2092% → 92%
Q3 7:35
2ND & 2
OWN 45
-6
7.7%
Ian Book sacked by Kaleb Oliver for a loss of 6 yards to the NDame 39Similar
Q3 6:47
4TH & 8
OWN 39
+39
8.2%
Jay Bramblett punt for 39 yds , Marquez Ezzard returns for a loss of 1 yard to the GTech 21 Marquez Ezzard fumbled, recovered by GTech Marquez EzzardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 14MISSED FG10 plays · 53 yds · 4:099% → 9%
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
8.9%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for 6 yds to the GTech 27Similar
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
9.6%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Jalen Camp for 15 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+20
10.1%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 5 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST down NOTRE DAME Penalty, Personal Foul (Marist Liufau) to the NDame 25 for a 1ST down. Marist Liufau ejected for targeting.Similar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-6
10.5%
Jeff Sims sacked by Daelin Hayes for a loss of 6 yards to the NDame 20 Jeff Sims fumbled, forced by Daelin Hayes, recovered by GTech Zach Quinney , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 3:06
3RD & 14
OPP 18
-8
9.4%
Jeff Sims sacked by Shaun Crawford for a loss of 8 yards to the NDame 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15TD9 plays · 74 yds · 4:2694% → 99%
Q3 1:08
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+34
6.1%
Ian Book pass complete to Javon McKinley for 34 yds to the GTech 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
5.4%
Ian Book pass complete to Kyren Williams for 4 yds to the GTech 34Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+20
5.0%
Ian Book pass complete to Kyren Williams for 20 yds to the GTech 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 1:092% → 2%
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
1.9%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Marquez Ezzard for 13 yds to the GTech 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3899% → 99%
Q4 9:57
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
1.3%
Jay Bramblett punt for 45 yds , Nate McCollum returns for no gain to the GTech 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 18TD9 plays · 69 yds · 2:342% → 4%
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
1.7%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for no gain to the GTech 31Similar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+34
1.6%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 34 yds to the NDame 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
1.8%
Jeff Sims pass incomplete to Nate McCollum, broken up by Kyle HamiltonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 19DOWNS6 plays · 11 yds · 1:264% → 2%
NDDrive 20Uncategorized11 plays · 52 yds · 5:2198% → 99%
Q4 4:00
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+5
1.5%
Book, Ian pass complete to Davis, Avery for loss of 5 yards to the NOTREDAME44, PENALTY GATECH substitution infraction 5 yards to the GATECH46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
1.1%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Defensive Offside (Mike Lockhart) to the GTech 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:43
Kyren Williams 4 Yd Run (Jonathan Doerer Kick)
-6.9
TD · Q2 10:47
Kyren Williams 2 Yd Run (Jonathan Doerer Kick)
-3.3
TD · Q4 12:59
C'Bo Flemister 3 Yd Run (Jonathan Doerer Kick)
-3.3