2020 · Week 9 · Oct 31, 2020 · Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)
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Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadBC aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreBC score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:15 · Grant Carlson punt for 39 yds, downed at the Clem 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:14: Brandon Sebastian 97 Yd Fumble Return (Aaron Boumerhi Kick) — BC win probability +3.5 pts (now 12%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:02: CJ Lewis 18 Yd pass from Phil Jurkovec (Aaron Boumerhi Kick) — BC win probability +20.0 pts (now 47%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:38: D.J. Uiagalelei 30 Yd Run (B.T. Potter Kick) — CLEM win probability +8.2 pts (now 73%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:16: Amari Rodgers 8 Yd pass from D.J. Uiagalelei (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — CLEM win probability +16.2 pts (now 81%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:34: Travis Etienne 17 Yd Run (B.T. Potter PAT failed) — CLEM win probability +14.0 pts (now 85%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 8BC made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 4:15CLEM 4th & 19 at CLEM 36, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.5% before the snapGo for it90.3%−0.311% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.6%average punt
- Q1 3:12BC 4th & 5 at BC 34, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snapGo for it9.9%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.0%average punt
- Q2 8:44CLEM 4th & 3 at BC 16, down 14Close callKicked a field goal · 78.9% before the snapGo for it78.8%51% to convertField goalTheir call78.5%−0.381% to makePunt75.2%−3.6average punt
- Q2 0:07CLEM 4th & 10 at BC 33, down 18Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.6% before the snapGo for it55.5%−1.530% to convertField goalTheir call57.1%49% to makePunt54.8%−2.3average punt
- Q3 11:38CLEM 4th & 1 at BC 30, down 15Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call56.6%71% to convertField goal53.1%−3.556% to makePunt51.1%−5.6average punt
- Q3 9:15BC 4th & 24 at BC 25, up 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.4% before the snapGo for it34.6%−4.56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.1%average punt
- Q3 6:45CLEM 4th & 1 at BC 11, down 8Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call59.8%71% to convertField goal56.5%−3.387% to makePunt45.6%−14.2average punt
- Q3 0:45BC 4th & 23 at BC 39, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.3% before the snapGo for it29.8%−7.57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.3%average punt
- Q4 13:17CLEM 4th & 1 at CLEM 45, down 2Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call66.6%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt61.9%−4.7average punt
- Q4 11:06BC 4th & 10 at BC 25, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snapGo for it18.4%−2.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.4%average punt
- Q4 10:06CLEM 4th & 8 at CLEM 31, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.3% before the snapGo for it75.5%−3.233% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call78.7%average punt
- Q4 4:18BC 4th & 3 at midfield, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call21.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt16.5%−5.4average punt
- Q4 2:21BC 4th & 9 at CLEM 45, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call16.6%32% to convertField goal15.4%−1.325% to makePunt13.0%−3.7average punt
- Q4 1:24CLEM 4th & 1 at BC 45, up 4Numbers favored go for it by 3.2 ptsPunted · 91.8% before the snapGo for it92.2%70% to convertField goal88.1%−4.225% to makePuntTheir call89.0%−3.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 4BC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 13:08BC Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call5.8%97% to makeGo for two5.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 10:54CLEM Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.9%97% to makeGo for two93.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:41BC Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call7.2%97% to makeGo for two7.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:14BC Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call16.5%97% to makeGo for two16.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:02BC Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call40.8%97% to makeGo for two40.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:38CLEM Touchdown, down 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.9%97% to makeGo for two66.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:16CLEM Touchdown, down 2 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick73.3%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call73.1%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 11:34CLEM Touchdown, up 4 before the tryClose callKicked · missedKickTheir call79.7%−0.397% to makeGo for two80.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBCDrive 1TD5 plays · 74 yds · 1:373% → 4%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+35
96.7%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Zay Flowers for 35 yds to the Clem 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+13
96.6%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to CJ Lewis for 13 yds to the Clem 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
96.3%
Zay Flowers 11 Yd pass from Phil Jurkovec (Aaron Boumerhi Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 2TD8 plays · 65 yds · 2:0896% → 96%
Q1 12:37
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+7
96.3%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 7 yds to the Clem 44Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 8
50
+8
96.0%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Cornell Powell for 8 yds to the BC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
95.9%
Uiagalelei, D.J. pass incomplete to Spector, Brannon, PENALTY BOSTCOLL pass interference (Maitre, Jason) 7 yards to the BOSTCOLL35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON.Similar
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
96.2%
Travis Etienne 35 Yd pass from D.J. Uiagalelei (B.T. Potter Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 3TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:034% → 5%
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+48
96.0%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 48 yds to the Clem 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+14
95.4%
Jurkovec, Phil pass incomplete to Galloway, Jehlani, PENALTY CLEMSON pass interference (Jones, Sheridan) 14 yards to the CLEMSON2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BOSTCOLL.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 4PUNT10 plays · 14 yds · 4:1495% → 94%
Q1 8:01
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+8
95.0%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Travis Etienne for 8 yds to the Clem 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
94.8%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Brannon Spector for 1 yd to the Clem 33Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+6
94.7%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 6 yds to the Clem 39Similar
Q1 6:33
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+6
94.6%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for 6 yds to the Clem 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+3
94.4%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Cornell Powell for 3 yds to the Clem 49Similar
Q1 5:07
3RD & 6
OWN 49
-13
94.1%
D.J. Uiagalelei sacked by Maximilian Roberts for a loss of 13 yards to the Clem 36Similar
Q1 4:15
4TH & 19
OWN 36
+18
93.5%
Will Spiers punt for 43 yds , Jaelen Gill returns for 18 yds to the CLEMSON 46 BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Illegal Block (Tate Haynes) to the BC 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:597% → 7%
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-12
93.5%
Phil Jurkovec sacked by Lannden Zanders for a loss of 12 yards to the BC 17 BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Phil Jurkovec) to the BC 17Similar
Q1 3:12
4TH & 5
OWN 34
+6
93.2%
Grant Carlson punt for 42 yds , Amari Rodgers returns for 6 yds to the Clem 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 6FUMBLE RETURN TD15 plays · 67 yds · 5:5193% → 88%
Q1 2:31
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+9
92.7%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Cornell Powell for 9 yds to the Clem 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-15
92.9%
Etienne, Travis rush for 9 yards to the 50 yardline, PENALTY CLEMSON personal foul 15 yards to the CLEMSON26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:33
2ND & 25
OWN 26
+9
92.3%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to E.J. Williams for 9 yds to the Clem 35Similar
Q1 0:46
3RD & 16
OWN 35
+20
91.8%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 20 yds to the BC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
92.4%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the BC 40Similar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
92.3%
Uiagalelei, D.J. pass incomplete to Powell, Cornell, PENALTY BOSTCOLL pass interference (Sebastian, Brandon) 15 yards to the BOSTCOLL14, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON.Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+9
91.9%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Travis Etienne for 9 yds to the BC 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 7FG9 plays · 63 yds · 3:1687% → 86%
Q2 11:30
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+3
86.2%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 3 yds to the Clem 28Similar
Q2 10:58
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+33
85.6%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Travis Etienne for 33 yds to the BC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+16
86.0%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Cornell Powell for 16 yds to the BC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:17
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+7
84.5%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Cornell Powell for 7 yds to the BC 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 8TD23 plays · 75 yds · 7:3615% → 47%
CLEMDrive 9FG12 plays · 42 yds · 0:4971% → 73%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
71.0%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Cornell Powell for 12 yds to the Clem 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+15
70.3%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Cornell Powell for 15 yds to the BC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+15
71.9%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to E.J. Williams for 15 yds to the BC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 10END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 11TD8 plays · 56 yds · 3:0569% → 73%
BCDrive 12PUNT7 plays · 0 yds · 2:1831% → 33%
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
69.2%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Jehlani Galloway for 8 yds to the BC 33Similar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-18
65.2%
Phil Jurkovec sacked by Trenton Simpson for a loss of 18 yards to the BC 21 Phil Jurkovec fumbled, recovered by BC Phil Jurkovec , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 13TD7 plays · 64 yds · 2:5268% → 81%
Q3 8:29
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+42
66.7%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Travis Etienne for 42 yds to the BC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 8
OPP 18
0
68.8%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass incomplete to Amari Rodgers, broken up by Josh DeBerrySimilar
Q3 7:20
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+7
66.9%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Cornell Powell for 7 yds to the BC 11Similar
Q3 6:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
80.7%
Amari Rodgers 8 Yd pass from D.J. Uiagalelei (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 14PUNT15 plays · 24 yds · 5:2626% → 33%
Q3 5:38
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+12
73.0%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to CJ Lewis for 12 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:28
2ND & 12
OWN 38
-15
70.8%
Jurkovec, Phil pass complete to Lewis, CJ for 19 yards to the CLEMSON43, PENALTY BOSTCOLL pass interference (Witter, Spencer) 15 yards to the BOSTCOLL23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 27
OWN 23
+10
71.6%
Jurkovec, Phil pass complete to Flowers, Zay for 12 yards to the BOSTCOLL35, PENALTY CLEMSON holding (Henry, K.J.) 10 yards to the BOSTCOLL33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BOSTCOLL.Similar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+17
68.9%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Zay Flowers for 17 yds to the Clem 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:03
4TH & 8
OPP 46
-5
65.8%
Carlson, Grant punt 45 yards to the CLEMSON1, downed, PENALTY BOSTCOLL illegal shift 5 yards to the BOSTCOLL49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:54
4TH & 13
OWN 49
-10
66.9%
Carlson, Grant punt 48 yards to the CLEMSON3, downed, PENALTY BOSTCOLL holding (Richardson, Max) 10 yards to the BOSTCOLL39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:45
4TH & 23
OWN 39
+1
67.4%
Grant Carlson punt for 45 yds , Amari Rodgers returns for 1 yd to the Clem 17 CLEMSON Penalty, Illegal Block (Elijah Turner) to the Clem 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 15TD12 plays · 91 yds · 4:0569% → 85%
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+11
68.8%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 11 yds to the Clem 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
69.9%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Travis Etienne for 2 yds to the Clem 38Similar
Q4 14:31
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-4
69.9%
D.J. Uiagalelei run for a loss of 4 yards to the Clem 34 D.J. Uiagalelei fumbled, recovered by Clem D.J. UiagaleleiSimilar
Q4 13:50
3RD & 12
OWN 34
+11
65.3%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 11 yds to the Clem 45Similar
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
69.9%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Brannon Spector for no gain to the BC 49Similar
Q4 12:29
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+26
69.7%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Travis Etienne for 11 yds to the BC 38 for a 1ST down BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Personal Foul (Isaiah McDuffie) to the BC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
70.8%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Cornell Powell for 6 yds to the BC 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 16FUMBLE5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2122% → 20%
Q4 11:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
78.6%
Phil Jurkovec pass incomplete to Travis Levy, broken up by Jake VenablesSimilar
Q4 11:06
4TH & 10
OWN 25
-5
80.5%
Grant Carlson punt for 41 yds , Amari Rodgers returns for a loss of 5 yards to the Clem 29 Amari Rodgers fumbled, forced by Elijah Jones, recovered by Clem Amari RodgersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5481% → 78%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 18INT15 plays · 34 yds · 7:3822% → 20%
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
76.1%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Hunter Long for 6 yds to the BC 27Similar
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-4
73.6%
Phil Jurkovec sacked by Xavier Thomas for a loss of 4 yards to the BC 28Similar
Q4 6:47
2ND & 14
OWN 28
+15
75.2%
Jurkovec, Phil pass pass intercepted by Spector, Baylon at the BOSTCOLL40, Spector, Baylon return 4 yards to the BOSTCOLL36, PENALTY CLEMSON roughing passer (Thomas, Xavier) 15 yards to the BOSTCOLL43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BOSTCOLL. Xavier Thomas ejected for targeting.Similar
Q4 4:18
4TH & 3
50
+4
72.7%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Hunter Long for 4 yds to the Clem 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
70.2%
David Bailey run for 3 yds to the Clem 43 David Bailey fumbled, forced by Baylon Spector, recovered by BC David BaileySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 19PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 0:5291% → 94%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 20SF1 play · -4 yds · 0:009% → 9%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:02
CJ Lewis 18 Yd pass from Phil Jurkovec (Aaron Boumerhi Kick)
-20
TD · Q3 6:16
Amari Rodgers 8 Yd pass from D.J. Uiagalelei (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+16.2
TD · Q4 11:34
Travis Etienne 17 Yd Run (B.T. Potter PAT failed)
+14