2020 · Week 8 · Oct 24, 2020 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · WAKE
modelWAKE aheadVT aheadconfidence bandkey playWAKE scoreVT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:39 · Ivan Mora punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tayvion Robinson at the VTech 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 9:31: Sam Hartman run for 9 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK) — WAKE win probability +3.5 pts (now 29%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:40: Hendon Hooker pass complete to James Mitchell for 39 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK) — VT win probability +7.5 pts (now 68%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:31: Kenneth Walker III run for 6 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK) — WAKE win probability +8.8 pts (now 56%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- FG · Q3 12:23: Nick Sciba 46 yd FG GOOD — WAKE win probability +6.3 pts (now 61%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- FG · Q4 2:38: Brian Johnson 54 yd FG GOOD — VT win probability +3.6 pts (now 11%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WAKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 11VT made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 13:05VT 4th & 1 at VT 46, tiedClose callPunted · 73.4% before the snapGo for it73.4%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.3%−0.1average punt
- Q1 7:34VT 4th & 10 at WAKE 25, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.3% before the snapGo for it68.2%−0.128% to convertField goalTheir call68.3%66% to makePunt67.4%−0.9average punt
- Q1 7:34WAKE 4th & 10 at WAKE 25, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.3% before the snapGo for it31.2%−0.328% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.5%average punt
- Q1 5:48VT 4th & 10 at VT 20, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.1% before the snapGo for it65.9%−0.227% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.1%average punt
- Q1 2:11WAKE 4th & 2 at VT 23, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 36.6% before the snapGo for it36.6%57% to convertField goalTheir call36.2%−0.470% to makePunt33.8%−2.7average punt
- Q2 11:39VT 4th & 11 at WAKE 11, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.6% before the snapGo for it56.4%−0.922% to convertField goalTheir call57.3%87% to makePunt52.1%−5.2average punt
- Q2 11:39WAKE 4th & 6 at WAKE 29, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.2% before the snapGo for it40.2%−0.439% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.6%average punt
- Q2 8:40WAKE 4th & 1 at VT 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call37.6%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt36.6%−1.1average punt
- Q2 8:40WAKE 4th & 2 at VT 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call37.9%57% to convertField goal37.2%−0.758% to makePunt34.8%−3.1average punt
- Q2 8:40WAKE 4th & 1 at VT 13, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call37.8%71% to convertField goal36.7%−1.185% to makePunt33.4%−4.4average punt
- Q3 12:23WAKE 4th & 3 at VT 28, up 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 56.7% before the snapGo for it56.9%52% to convertField goalTheir call55.7%−1.260% to makePunt48.1%−8.8average punt
- Q3 9:58VT 4th & 4 at VT 29, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call34.3%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt33.9%−0.4average punt
- Q3 8:16WAKE 4th & 1 at WAKE 46, up 10Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsPunted · 67.0% before the snapGo for it67.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call64.9%−2.7average punt
- Q3 1:29VT 4th & 5 at WAKE 14, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.7% before the snapGo for it25.4%−0.439% to convertField goalTheir call25.8%84% to makePunt14.7%−11.1average punt
- Q4 11:05WAKE 4th & 8 at VT 10, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.3% before the snapGo for it79.2%−1.128% to convertField goalTheir call80.4%88% to makePunt68.5%−11.8average punt
- Q4 6:56VT 4th & 16 at WAKE 34, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.4% before the snapGo for it10.3%−0.716% to convertField goalTheir call11.0%47% to makePunt10.3%−0.7average punt
- Q4 6:07WAKE 4th & 2 at WAKE 42, up 10Close callPunted · 89.7% before the snapGo for it90.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.6%−0.4average punt
- Q4 5:10VT 4th & 2 at WAKE 44, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.1%57% to convertField goal8.3%−1.827% to makePunt9.0%−1.2average punt
- Q4 2:38VT 4th & 8 at WAKE 37, down 10Close callKicked a field goal · 6.7% before the snapGo for it6.9%35% to convertField goalTheir call6.4%−0.540% to makePunt6.4%−0.5average punt
- Q4 0:51WAKE 4th & 8 at VT 32, up 7Close callPunted · 94.7% before the snapGo for it94.6%−0.234% to convertField goal94.8%51% to makePuntTheir call94.1%−0.7average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WAKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 2VT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 9:31WAKE Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call30.0%97% to makeGo for two30.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:40VT Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call62.1%97% to makeGo for two62.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:31WAKE Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call50.2%97% to makeGo for two50.0%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartVTDrive 1PUNT9 plays · 21 yds · 1:5576% → 75%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 2TD8 plays · 92 yds · 2:5426% → 29%
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
25.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 6 yds to the WFrst 14Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 4
OWN 14
+3
25.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 3 yds to the WFrst 17Similar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+58
25.4%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 58 yds to the VTech 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+7
25.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 7 yds to the VTech 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
25.8%
K Walker rush for 4 yards to the VT10 (Deablo, D), PENALTY VT offside (Reed, J) 5 yards to the VT9, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 3MISSED FG6 plays · 50 yds · 1:5771% → 70%
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+50
28.6%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Khalil Herbert for 35 yds to the WAKEFOREST 40 for a 1ST down WAKE FOREST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the WFrst 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
27.9%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 8 yds to the WFrst 17Similar
Q1 9:31
3RD & 4
OPP 19
-6
28.2%
Hendon Hooker sacked by Miles Fox and Chase Monroe for a loss of 6 yards to the WFrst 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q1 7:34
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-5
30.4%
Sam Hartman sacked by Justus Reed and Jarrod Hewitt for a loss of 5 yards to the WFrst 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
31.8%
Hendon Hooker sacked by Ja'Corey Johns for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 6FG6 plays · 37 yds · 2:0934% → 37%
Q1 4:20
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+26
34.3%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 26 yds to the VTech 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 7FG15 plays · 64 yds · 5:3264% → 60%
Q1 2:11
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+14
35.6%
Hooker, H pass incomplete to Robinson, T, PENALTY WF pass interference (J Taylor) 14 yards to the WF45, 1ST DOWN VT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+7
37.3%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to James Mitchell for 7 yds to the WFrst 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
36.9%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Tayvion Robinson, broken up by A.J. WilliamsSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
37.5%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Tayvion Robinson, broken up by Caelen CarsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0041% → 40%
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
41.0%
Sam Hartman sacked by Rayshard Ashby for a loss of 10 yards to the WFrst 15Similar
Q2 11:39
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+14
40.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Christian Beal-Smith for 14 yds to the WFrst 29Similar
Q2 11:39
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
39.6%
Ivan Mora punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tayvion Robinson at the VTech 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 9TD4 plays · 70 yds · 1:3458% → 68%
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
40.9%
Raheem Blackshear run for 15 yds to the WFrst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
39.8%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to James Mitchell for 5 yds to the WFrst 39Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+39
32.3%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to James Mitchell for 39 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 10TD20 plays · 75 yds · 7:0937% → 56%
Q2 8:40
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+11
36.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 11 yds to the WFrst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+4
37.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Kenneth Walker III for 4 yds to the WFrst 47Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+5
37.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Nolan Groulx for 5 yds to the VTech 48Similar
Q2 8:40
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+7
37.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 7 yds to the VTech 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+4
38.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 4 yds to the VTech 13Similar
Q2 8:40
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+8
37.9%
Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the VTech 10 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, face mask (5 yards) (Jarrod Hewitt) to the VTech 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 11INT11 plays · 55 yds · 1:1247% → 50%
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
51.5%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Tre Turner for 14 yds to the WFrst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+16
49.5%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Tre Turner for 16 yds to the WFrst 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
47.7%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Nick Gallo for 3 yds to the WFrst 23Similar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
50.0%
Hendon Hooker pass intercepted, touchback. Nick Andersen return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 12END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 13FG9 plays · 46 yds · 2:3253% → 61%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
55.0%
Sam Hartman sacked by Jarrod Hewitt for 0 yards to the WFrst 40 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, targeting (Jarrod Hewitt) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
50
+15
55.5%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jarrod Hewitt) to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 3
OPP 28
0
54.8%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Nolan Groulx, broken up by Dorian StrongSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 14INT11 plays · 50 yds · 2:2539% → 36%
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
60.7%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Khalil Herbert for 4 yds to the VTech 27Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+18
64.9%
Raheem Blackshear run for 3 yds to the WFrst 48 for a 1ST down WAKE FOREST Penalty, personal foul (Carlos Basham Jr.) to the WFrst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
64.1%
Hendon Hooker pass intercepted Nick Andersen return for no gain to the WFrst 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 32 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q3 8:16
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+19
68.1%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 19 yds to the WFrst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+2
70.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 2 yds to the WFrst 43Similar
Q3 8:16
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
68.3%
Ivan Mora punt for 50 yds for a touchback , Tayvion Robinson returns for no gain Tayvion Robinson fumbled, forced by Kenneth Dicks III, recovered by VTech WAKE FOREST Penalty, kick catching interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 16FG9 plays · 66 yds · 4:2028% → 32%
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+13
68.6%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 13 yds to the WFrst 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
66.9%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Nick Gallo for 10 yds to the WFrst 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:49
3RD & 16
OPP 25
+11
70.1%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 11 yds to the WFrst 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 17FG16 plays · 65 yds · 5:2474% → 84%
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
73.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 11 yds to the WFrst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:29
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+10
74.3%
S Hartman pass incomplete to AT Perry, PENALTY VT pass interference (Strong, D) 10 yards to the WF47, 1ST DOWN WF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 45
+36
80.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 36 yds to the VTech 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-15
83.0%
S Hartman pass complete to D Greene for 6 yards to the VT0, clock 12:55, PENALTY WF pass interference (D Greene) 15 yards to the VT21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 21
+9
81.8%
Kenneth Walker III run for a loss of 4 yards to the VTech 25 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, personal foul (Norell Pollard) to the VTech 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 18MISSED FG13 plays · 47 yds · 4:0516% → 10%
Q4 11:01
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+3
84.4%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Tre Turner for 3 yds to the VTech 22Similar
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-10
82.9%
Herbert, K rush for 4 yards to the VT38 (N Andersen), PENALTY VT holding (Mitchell, J) 10 yards to the VT24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:01
1ST & 20
OWN 24
+19
84.4%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 19 yds to the VTech 43Similar
Q4 11:01
2ND & 1
OWN 43
-10
81.5%
Herbert, K rush for 18 yards to the WF39 (C Carson), PENALTY VT holding 10 yards to the VT33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:01
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+25
84.3%
Raheem Blackshear run for 10 yds to the WFrst 43 for a 1ST down WAKE FOREST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Caelen Carson) to the WFrst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
80.5%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Tre Turner for 14 yds Tre Turner fumbled, forced by Caelen Carson, recovered by VTech for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
79.0%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Kaleb Smith, broken up by A.J. WilliamsSimilar
Q4 11:01
3RD & 10
OPP 28
-7
80.9%
Hendon Hooker sacked by Carlos Basham Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the WFrst 34 Hendon Hooker fumbled, recovered by VTech Lecitus Smith , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:4990% → 91%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 20FG9 plays · 35 yds · 2:327% → 11%
Q4 5:10
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+8
93.3%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Nick Gallo for 8 yds to the WFrst 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 21PUNT7 plays · 2 yds · 1:4695% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 22INT6 plays · 14 yds · 0:007% → 7%
WAKEDrive 23Uncategorized1 play · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:31
Kenneth Walker III run for 6 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)
+8.8
TD · Q2 8:40
Hendon Hooker pass complete to James Mitchell for 39 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK)
-7.5
FG · Q3 12:23
Nick Sciba 46 yd FG GOOD
+6.3