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ND

Notre Dame 45 at Pittsburgh 3

PITT
2020 · Week 8 · Oct 24, 2020 · Acrisure Stadium
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Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadND aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:06 · Kirk Christodoulou punt for 24 yds, fair catch by Matt Salerno at the NDame 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+59.5+29.80−29.8−59.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 54Home team on offense−0.4Score differential−0.3Pregame prior−18.4Garbage-time factor−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 10:08: Ben Skowronek 34 Yd pass from Ian Book (Jonathan Doerer Kick) — ND win probability +1.3 pts (now 74%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:37: Ben Skowronek 73 Yd pass from Ian Book (Jonathan Doerer Kick) — ND win probability +6.1 pts (now 74%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:29: Kyren Williams 2 Yd Run (Jonathan Doerer Kick) — ND win probability +10.1 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:11: Isaiah Foskey 0 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Jonathan Doerer Kick) — ND win probability +12.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:22: Michael Mayer 14 Yd pass from Ian Book (Jonathan Doerer Kick) — ND win probability +1.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 6 of 9ND made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 7:38PITT 4th & 10 at ND 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.0%
    62% to make
    Punt
    27.0%−1.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:10PITT 4th & 16 at PITT 21, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%−1.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:37ND 4th & 7 at PITT 39, up 4
    Close callPunted · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    68.2%−0.4
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.2%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:06PITT 4th & 7 at ND 37, down 4
    Close callPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    32.8%−0.4
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    32.7%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:54PITT 4th & 2 at PITT 39, down 11
    Close callPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.3%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:52ND 4th & 12 at ND 26, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%−1.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:11PITT 4th & 15 at PITT 31, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%−1.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:44PITT 4th & 9 at PITT 37, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−0.9
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:34ND 4th & 3 at PITT 3, up 25
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.5%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    95.4%−2.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:38PITT 4th & 7 at ND 47, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:10ND 4th & 7 at ND 30, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:58PITT 4th & 2 at PITT 46, down 42
    Close callPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:10ND 4th & 8 at ND 18, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:52PITT 4th & 20 at PITT 11, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:14ND 4th & 1 at PITT 13, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 10:08ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:37ND Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:29ND Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:11ND Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:22ND Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:42ND Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:4875% → 74%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
25.5%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Tommy TrembleSimilar
Q1 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
25.6%
Kyren Williams run for 4 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q1 14:17
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+6
25.8%
Ian Book run for 6 yds to the NDame 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
26.2%
Kyren Williams run for 3 yds to the NDame 38Similar
Q1 12:49
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+3
26.4%
Ian Book run for 3 yds to the NDame 41Similar
Q1 12:11
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+12
26.7%
Ian Book pass complete to Michael Mayer for 12 yds to the Pitt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
26.8%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Javon McKinleySimilar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+14
26.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Avery Davis for 14 yds to the Pitt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-11
27.0%
Kyren Williams run for 4 yds to the Pitt 29 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Aaron Banks) to the Pitt 44Similar
Q1 10:41
1ST & 21
OPP 44
+10
27.3%
Ian Book run for 10 yds to the Pitt 34Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 11
OPP 34
+34
26.0%
Ben Skowronek 34 Yd pass from Ian Book (Jonathan Doerer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 2FG
11 plays · 37 yds · 2:1927% → 28%
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
26.6%
Joey Yellen pass incomplete to DJ TurnerSimilar
Q1 9:48
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
26.7%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Jordan Addison for 4 yds to the Pitt 40Similar
Q1 9:18
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+11
26.7%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Tre Tipton for 11 yds to the NDame 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
27.2%
Joey Yellen pass incomplete to Jordan AddisonSimilar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
27.1%
Vincent Davis run for no gain to the NDame 49Similar
Q1 8:07
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+22
27.0%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 22 yds to the NDame 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
27.9%
Joey Yellen pass incomplete to Jordan AddisonSimilar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
27.9%
Joey Yellen pass incomplete to Taysir MackSimilar
Q1 7:42
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
27.5%
Joey Yellen pass incomplete to Taysir MackSimilar
Q1 7:38
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+45
28.4%
Alex Kessman 45 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3FUMBLE
9 plays · 13 yds · 3:1672% → 70%
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
28.1%
Kyren Williams run for 2 yds to the NDame 20Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+8
28.3%
Kyren Williams run for 8 yds to the NDame 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+24
28.3%
Ian Book pass complete to Kyren Williams for 9 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST down PITTSBURGH Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Paris Ford) to the Pitt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-14
28.0%
Book, Ian pass incomplete to Lenzy, Braden, PENALTY NOTREDAME personal foul (Eichenberg, Liam) 14 yards to the NOTREDAME38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 24
OWN 38
-5
28.5%
Chris Tyree run for a loss of 5 yards to the NDame 33Similar
Q1 5:22
2ND & 29
OWN 33
+2
29.0%
Kyren Williams run for 2 yds to the NDame 35Similar
Q1 4:50
3RD & 27
OWN 35
-4
29.5%
Kyren Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the NDame 31Similar
Q1 4:09
4TH & 31
OWN 31
+41
29.9%
Jay Bramblett punt for 41 yds , DJ Turner returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 27 DJ Turner fumbled, recovered by Pitt DJ TurnerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:5329% → 29%
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
29.4%
Vincent Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 25Similar
Q1 3:24
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+2
29.5%
Vincent Davis run for 2 yds to the Pitt 27Similar
Q1 2:51
3RD & 10
OWN 27
-6
29.3%
Joey Yellen sacked by Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa for a loss of 6 yards to the Pitt 21Similar
Q1 2:10
4TH & 16
OWN 21
+1
29.3%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 43 yds , Matt Salerno returns for 1 yd to the NDame 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:2570% → 70%
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
29.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Avery Davis for 9 yds to the NDame 46Similar
Q1 1:27
2ND & 1
OWN 46
0
29.3%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Avery DavisSimilar
Q1 1:21
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+2
29.5%
C'Bo Flemister run for 2 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
29.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Michael Mayer for 10 yds to the Pitt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
29.5%
C'Bo Flemister run for 3 yds to the Pitt 39Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 7
OPP 39
0
29.6%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Javon McKinleySimilar
Q2 14:46
3RD & 7
OPP 39
0
29.8%
Ian Book pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:37
4TH & 7
OPP 39
0
30.5%
Jay Bramblett punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 43 yds · 2:2631% → 33%
Q2 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
31.0%
Joey Yellen pass incomplete to Daniel CarterSimilar
Q2 14:26
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
30.9%
Joey Yellen pass complete to DJ Turner for 5 yds to the Pitt 25Similar
Q2 13:50
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+2
30.9%
Yellen, Joey pass incomplete to Addison, Jordan, PENALTY NOTREDAME pass interference (Hamilton, Kyle) 2 yards to the PITTSBURGH27, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PITTSBURGH.Similar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
31.5%
Joey Yellen pass incomplete to Jared WayneSimilar
Q2 13:36
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+33
31.2%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Jordan Addison for 33 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
33.4%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Jordan Addison for 3 yds to the NDame 37Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 7
OPP 37
0
33.8%
Joey Yellen pass incomplete to Jordan AddisonSimilar
Q2 12:14
3RD & 7
OPP 37
0
33.5%
Joey Yellen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:06
4TH & 7
OPP 37
0
32.7%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 24 yds, fair catch by Matt Salerno at the NDame 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7TD
4 plays · 87 yds · 1:1968% → 74%
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+18
31.9%
Ian Book run for 18 yds to the NDame 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
31.4%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Joe Wilkins Jr., broken up by Damar HamlinSimilar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-4
31.7%
Ian Book sacked by Phil Campbell III for a loss of 4 yards to the NDame 27Similar
Q2 10:37
3RD & 14
OWN 27
+73
25.6%
Ben Skowronek 73 Yd pass from Ian Book (Jonathan Doerer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2626% → 26%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
25.8%
A.J. Davis run for no gain to the Pitt 31Similar
Q2 9:47
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
25.5%
Joey Yellen pass incomplete to A.J. DavisSimilar
Q2 9:38
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+8
24.9%
Joey Yellen pass complete to A.J. Davis for 8 yds to the Pitt 39Similar
Q2 8:54
4TH & 2
OWN 39
0
25.5%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NDame 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 2:5475% → 75%
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
25.5%
Kyren Williams run for 5 yds to the NDame 23Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+4
25.6%
Kyren Williams run for 4 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+1
24.6%
Kyren Williams run for 1 yd to the NDame 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
24.4%
Kyren Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 26Similar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 12
OWN 26
0
24.6%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Michael MayerSimilar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 12
OWN 26
0
25.0%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Braden LenzySimilar
Q2 5:52
4TH & 12
OWN 26
+34
25.4%
Jay Bramblett punt for 39 yds, fair catch by DJ Turner at the PITTSBURGH 35 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 10INT
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:3526% → 26%
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
25.5%
Joey Yellen pass incomplete to Taysir Mack, broken up by Nick McCloudSimilar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+11
25.2%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Taysir Mack for 11 yds to the NDame 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-16
26.2%
Joey Yellen pass intercepted Bo Bauer return for 16 yds to the Pitt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11TD
9 plays · 46 yds · 3:3577% → 89%
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
23.3%
Kyren Williams run for no gain to the Pitt 46Similar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+20
23.3%
Ian Book pass complete to Kyren Williams for 20 yds to the Pitt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
22.6%
Ian Book run for 6 yds to the Pitt 20Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+3
22.6%
Kyren Williams run for 3 yds to the Pitt 17Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+2
22.7%
Ian Book run for 2 yds to the Pitt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
22.3%
Ian Book pass complete to Tommy Tremble for 1 yd to the Pitt 14Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 9
OPP 14
0
21.2%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Joe Wilkins Jr., broken up by Jason PinnockSimilar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+12
21.5%
Book, Ian pass incomplete to McKinley, Javon, PENALTY PITTSBURGH pass interference (Woods, A.J.) 12 yards to the PITTSBURGH2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q2 1:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
11.4%
Kyren Williams 2 Yd Run (Jonathan Doerer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 12PUNT TD
7 plays · 6 yds · 1:1116% → 3%
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
15.6%
Vincent Davis run for 11 yds to the Pitt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-4
16.2%
Vincent Davis run for a loss of 4 yards to the Pitt 32Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 14
OWN 32
+1
15.4%
Vincent Davis run for 1 yd to the Pitt 33Similar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 13
OWN 33
-2
14.7%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Vincent Davis for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 31Similar
Q2 0:11
4TH & 15
OWN 31
0
2.5%
Isaiah Foskey 0 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Jonathan Doerer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
2.7%
A.J. Davis run for no gain to the Pitt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 1:074% → 3%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
3.5%
Joey Yellen pass incomplete to Shocky Jacques-LouisSimilar
Q3 14:43
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+19
3.5%
Vincent Davis run for 19 yds to the Pitt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
3.6%
Joey Yellen pass incomplete to Daniel MoragaSimilar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
3.5%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Pitt 41Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+1
3.6%
Vincent Davis run for 1 yd to the Pitt 42Similar
Q3 13:52
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
3.5%
Joey Yellen pass incomplete to Jared WayneSimilar
Q3 13:52
4TH & 4
OWN 42
-5
3.5%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (A.J. Woods) to the Pitt 37Similar
Q3 13:44
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
3.3%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 38 yds , Matt Salerno returns for no gain to the NDame 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15FG
14 plays · 72 yds · 6:0196% → 97%
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
4.1%
Ian Book pass complete to Kyren Williams for 8 yds to the NDame 33Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
3.9%
Kyren Williams run for 4 yds to the NDame 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
3.6%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Ben SkowronekSimilar
Q3 12:29
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+9
3.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Javon McKinley for 9 yds to the NDame 46Similar
Q3 11:58
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+1
3.2%
Kyren Williams run for 1 yd to the NDame 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
3.0%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Kyren WilliamsSimilar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
3.0%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Braden LenzySimilar
Q3 11:03
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+14
3.0%
Ian Book pass complete to Michael Mayer for 14 yds to the Pitt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
2.5%
Jafar Armstrong run for a loss of 5 yards to the Pitt 44Similar
Q3 9:37
2ND & 15
OPP 44
+41
2.4%
Ian Book pass complete to Javon McKinley for 41 yds to the Pitt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
2.0%
Kyren Williams run for 1 yd to the Pitt 2Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
1.9%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Michael Mayer, broken up by Paris FordSimilar
Q3 8:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
2.0%
Ian Book sacked by Cam Bright for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 3Similar
Q3 7:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
2.8%
Jonathan Doerer 21 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 16INT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:584% → 4%
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
4.3%
Joey Yellen pass complete to Taysir Mack for 6 yds to the Pitt 28Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+1
4.1%
A.J. Davis run for 1 yd to the Pitt 29Similar
Q3 6:23
3RD & 3
OWN 29
0
4.0%
Joey Yellen pass intercepted Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah return for no gain to the Pitt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 17TD
5 plays · 49 yds · 1:5698% → 99%
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
2.2%
Chris Tyree run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 11
50
+23
2.2%
Ian Book pass complete to Michael Mayer for 23 yds to the Pitt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+10
2.0%
Williams, Kyren pass incomplete to Tremble, Tommy, PENALTY PITTSBURGH holding (Hamlin, Damar) 10 yards to the PITTSBURGH17, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
2.0%
Chris Tyree run for 3 yds to the Pitt 14Similar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+14
0.9%
Michael Mayer 14 Yd pass from Ian Book (Jonathan Doerer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
1.1%
Joey Yellen pass intercepted Nick McCloud return for no gain to the Pitt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 19TD
5 plays · 35 yds · 1:2899% → 99%
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
1.0%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Michael MayerSimilar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+5
1.0%
C'Bo Flemister run for 5 yds to the Pitt 30Similar
Q3 3:23
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+26
0.8%
Ian Book pass complete to Avery Davis for 21 yds Avery Davis fumbled, forced by Brandon Hill, recovered by NDame PITTSBURGH Penalty, Roughing Passer (Devin Danielson) to the Pitt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
0.7%
Flemister, C'Bo rush for loss of 2 yards to the PITTSBURGH6, PENALTY PITTSBURGH offside (Jones II, Patrick) 2 yards to the PITTSBURGH2, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.7%
C'Bo Flemister 2 Yd Run (Jonathan Doerer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 2:041% → 1%
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
0.6%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jordan Botelho) to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
0.6%
Davis Beville run for no gain to the Pitt 40 Davis Beville fumbled, recovered by Pitt Davis BevilleSimilar
Q3 2:09
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+10
0.5%
Davis Beville run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
50
-6
0.5%
Davis Beville sacked by Isaiah Foskey and Ovie Oghoufo for a loss of 6 yards to the Pitt 44Similar
Q3 1:09
2ND & 16
OWN 44
+9
0.5%
Daniel Carter run for 9 yds to the NDame 47Similar
Q3 0:46
3RD & 7
OPP 47
0
0.5%
Davis Beville pass incomplete to Jared WayneSimilar
Q3 0:38
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
0.5%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Matt Salerno at the NDame 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:2899% → 99%
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+15
0.7%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Shocky Jacques-Louis) to the NDame 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-4
0.7%
Brendon Clark run for a loss of 4 yards to the NDame 23Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 14
OWN 23
+7
0.6%
Brendon Clark pass complete to George Takacs for 7 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q4 14:22
3RD & 7
OWN 30
0
0.6%
Brendon Clark pass incomplete to Joe Wilkins Jr.Similar
Q4 14:10
4TH & 7
OWN 30
0
0.6%
Jay Bramblett punt for 49 yds, downed at the Pitt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:010% → 0%
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
0.4%
Israel Abanikanda run for no gain to the Pitt 21Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+9
0.3%
Nick Patti pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 9 yds to the Pitt 30Similar
Q4 13:21
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+8
0.3%
Nick Patti pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 8 yds to the Pitt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
0.3%
Nick Patti pass incomplete to Taysir MackSimilar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-5
0.3%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (Shocky Jacques-Louis) to the Pitt 33Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 15
OWN 33
0
0.3%
Nick Patti pass incomplete to Taysir MackSimilar
Q4 12:41
3RD & 15
OWN 33
+13
0.3%
Nick Patti run for 13 yds to the Pitt 46Similar
Q4 11:58
4TH & 2
OWN 46
+38
0.3%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Matt Salerno at the PITTSBURGH 11 PITTSBURGH Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the NDame 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 2:40100% → 100%
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
0.4%
Jafar Armstrong run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 15Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 11
OWN 15
-7
0.4%
Armstrong, Jafar rush for 4 yards to the NOTREDAME19, PENALTY NOTREDAME holding (Gibbons, Dillan) 7 yards to the NOTREDAME8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 18
OWN 8
+1
0.4%
Jafar Armstrong run for 1 yd to the NDame 9Similar
Q4 9:55
3RD & 17
OWN 9
+9
0.4%
Jafar Armstrong run for 9 yds to the NDame 18Similar
Q4 9:10
4TH & 8
OWN 18
-7
0.3%
Jay Bramblett punt for 44 yds , DJ Turner returns for a loss of 7 yards to the Pitt 31 PITTSBURGH Penalty, Illegal Block (Jared Wayne) to the Pitt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:110% → 0%
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
0.2%
Israel Abanikanda run for no gain to the Pitt 21Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-5
0.2%
Nick Patti sacked by Isaiah Pryor for a loss of 5 yards to the Pitt 16 Nick Patti fumbled, forced by Isaiah Pryor, recovered by Pitt Carson Van Lynn , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 15
OWN 16
0
0.2%
Nick Patti pass incomplete to Daniel MoragaSimilar
Q4 8:00
4TH & 15
OWN 16
-5
0.2%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (Tre Tipton) to the Pitt 11Similar
Q4 7:52
4TH & 20
OWN 11
0
0.2%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Matt Salerno at the NDame 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 25Uncategorized
15 plays · 35 yds · 7:34100% → 100%
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
0.2%
Jafar Armstrong run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 8
50
-1
0.2%
Jafar Armstrong run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 49Similar
Q4 6:22
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+4
0.2%
Clark, Brendon pass incomplete to Keys III, Lawrence, PENALTY PITTSBURGH pass interference (Tallandier, Judson) 4 yards to the PITTSBURGH47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
0.2%
Brendon Clark pass incomplete to Braden LenzySimilar
Q4 6:08
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+4
0.2%
C'Bo Flemister run for 4 yds to the Pitt 43Similar
Q4 5:28
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+7
0.2%
C'Bo Flemister run for 7 yds to the Pitt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
0.2%
C'Bo Flemister run for 4 yds to the Pitt 32Similar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+2
0.2%
C'Bo Flemister run for 2 yds to the Pitt 30Similar
Q4 3:11
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+8
0.1%
C'Bo Flemister run for 8 yds to the Pitt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
0.1%
C'Bo Flemister run for 2 yds to the Pitt 20Similar
Q4 2:03
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+3
0.1%
C'Bo Flemister run for 3 yds to the Pitt 17Similar
Q4 1:18
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+4
0.1%
C'Bo Flemister run for 4 yds to the Pitt 13Similar
Q4 1:14
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+2
0.1%
C'Bo Flemister run for 2 yds to the Pitt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-3
0.1%
Jafar Armstrong run for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 14Similar
Q4 0:11
2ND & 13
OPP 14
-3
0.1%
Jafar Armstrong run for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:11
Isaiah Foskey 0 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Jonathan Doerer Kick)
-12.1
TD · Q2 1:29
Kyren Williams 2 Yd Run (Jonathan Doerer Kick)
-10.1
TD · Q2 10:37
Ben Skowronek 73 Yd pass from Ian Book (Jonathan Doerer Kick)
-6.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com