2020 · Week 8 · Oct 24, 2020 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
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Win probability · BC
modelBC aheadGT aheadconfidence bandkey playBC scoreGT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:04 · Aaron Boumerhi 41 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginPregame prior
This game in five plays
- FUMBLE · Q2 12:12: Jordan Mason run for 2 yds Jordan Mason fumbled, forced by Luc Bequette, recovered by BC Mike Palmer , return for 33 yds — BC win probability +6.9 pts (now 79%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:48: Jeff Sims pass complete to Ahmarean Brown for 32 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK) — GT win probability +8.2 pts (now 29%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:44: Zay Flowers run for 22 yds for a TD (Aaron Boumerhi KICK) — BC win probability +8.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:13: Jeff Sims pass complete to PeJe' Harris for 31 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK) — GT win probability +7.5 pts (now 27%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:30: Aaron Boumerhi 27 yd FG GOOD — BC win probability +7.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BC made the numbers' call on 3 of 5GT made the numbers' call on 3 of 8
- Q1 14:56GT 4th & 13 at BC 29, tiedClose callWent for it · 39.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call39.1%−0.120% to convertField goal39.2%58% to makePunt38.8%−0.3average punt
- Q1 2:58GT 4th & 1 at GT 34, down 14Close callPunted · 30.8% before the snapGo for it31.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.8%−0.7average punt
- Q2 13:04BC 4th & 14 at GT 24, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.8% before the snapGo for it71.3%−1.618% to convertField goalTheir call72.9%68% to makePunt67.9%−5.0average punt
- Q2 0:30BC 4th & 10 at GT 10, up 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.5% before the snapGo for it84.0%−1.724% to convertField goalTheir call85.7%88% to makePunt78.8%−6.9average punt
- Q2 0:26GT 4th & 4 at GT 23, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snapGo for it7.5%−1.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.6%average punt
- Q3 12:49GT 4th & 4 at BC 44, down 27Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.8%48% to convertField goal3.4%−1.427% to makePunt4.2%−0.5average punt
- Q3 5:39BC 4th & 10 at BC 41, up 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.5% before the snapGo for it95.2%−0.829% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.0%average punt
- Q3 1:09GT 4th & 2 at GT 33, down 27Close callPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.5%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 14:40BC 4th & 2 at BC 25, up 27Close callPunted · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.7%−0.1average punt
- Q4 14:30GT 4th & 7 at GT 48, down 27Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.3%average punt
- Q4 7:30GT 4th & 13 at BC 19, down 21Close callWent for it · 1.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.9%−0.719% to convertField goal1.6%77% to makePunt0.3%−1.3average punt
- Q4 7:24BC 4th & 6 at GT 42, up 21Close callPunted · 98.9% before the snapGo for it98.9%40% to convertField goal98.7%−0.230% to makePuntTheir call98.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 2:03GT 4th & 5 at GT 39, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.5%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5GT made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 5:25BC Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call63.6%97% to makeGo for two63.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:58BC Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.0%97% to makeGo for two70.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:48GT Touchdown, down 18 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call23.3%97% to makeGo for two23.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:44BC Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.9%97% to makeGo for two85.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:13GT Touchdown, down 18 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call21.0%97% to makeGo for two20.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:49BC Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.6%97% to makeGo for two97.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:39GT Touchdown, down 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call5.0%97% to makeGo for two5.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:09BC Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:09GT Touchdown, down 21 before the tryClose callKicked · missedKickTheir call1.6%−0.197% to makeGo for two1.7%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartGTDrive 1DOWNS12 plays · 51 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
52.9%
Gibbs, J. rush for loss of 5 yards to the GT15 (Barlow,B), PENALTY BC UR (Barlow,B) 15 yards to the GT35, 1ST DOWN GT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+24
52.9%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Ahmarean Brown for 24 yds to the BC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-13
52.9%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for a loss of 13 yards to the BC 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 2TD10 plays · 71 yds · 5:1154% → 59%
Q1 10:36
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+17
54.1%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Hunter Long for 17 yds to the GTech 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
54.2%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Travis Levy for 1 yd to the GTech 7Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
58.7%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to CJ Lewis for 7 yds for a TD GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the GTech 8 (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 3FUMBLE3 plays · -3 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
BCDrive 4TD5 plays · 22 yds · 2:2059% → 65%
GTDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 6FG10 plays · 62 yds · 3:1866% → 73%
GTDrive 7FUMBLE TD3 plays · 10 yds · 0:4028% → 21%
GTDrive 8TD3 plays · 53 yds · 0:2421% → 29%
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+21
79.2%
Jeff Sims run for 6 yds to the BOSTCOLL 47 for a 1ST down BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, UR (15 Yards) to the BC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
71.0%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Ahmarean Brown for 32 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 9TD6 plays · 39 yds · 2:0476% → 85%
Q2 11:48
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+11
76.3%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Zay Flowers for 11 yds to the GTech 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 10TD8 plays · 91 yds · 2:2017% → 27%
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+14
82.9%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Ezzard M. for 14 yds to the GTech 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:33
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+5
82.7%
Sims, J. pass incomplete to Carter, M., PENALTY BC offside (Roberts,M) 5 yards to the GT28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:33
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+37
82.4%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Jordan Mason for 37 yds to the BC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+31
73.5%
Jeff Sims pass complete to PeJe' Harris for 31 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 11FG18 plays · 65 yds · 6:4379% → 91%
Q2 7:13
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+5
78.6%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the GTech 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:13
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+2
79.4%
Jurkovec,P pass incomplete to Lewis,C, PENALTY GT pass interference (Swilling, T.) 2 yards to the GT29, 1ST DOWN BC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+19
79.8%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 19 yds to the GTech 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
BCDrive 13TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:1191% → 98%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+16
91.2%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Hunter Long for 16 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 14TD20 plays · 75 yds · 7:104% → 6%
Q3 12:49
3RD & 4
OPP 44
0
94.7%
Jeff Sims pass incomplete to Jamal Camp, broken up by Elijah JonesSimilar
Q3 12:49
4TH & 4
OPP 44
+5
94.7%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Malachi Carter for 5 yds to the BC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 12
OPP 41
+17
95.0%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 17 yds to the BC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 2
OPP 16
-11
94.0%
Jeff Sims sacked by Maximilian Roberts and Chibueze Onwuka for a loss of 11 yards to the BC 27Similar
Q3 8:24
3RD & 13
OPP 27
-6
99.0%
Jeff Sims sacked by Max Richardson and Maximilian Roberts for a loss of 6 yards to the BC 33Similar
Q3 8:24
4TH & 19
OPP 33
+15
98.1%
Sims, J. pass intercepted by Palmer,M at the BC0, Palmer,M return to the BC42 (Johnson, R.), PENALTY BC roughing passer (Valdez,M) 15 yards to the BC18, 1ST DOWN GT, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 15PUNT8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
Q3 5:39
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+12
95.6%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Travis Levy for 12 yds to the BC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
95.8%
Levy,T rush for 3 yards to the BC44 (Curry, D.), PENALTY BC illegal formation 5 yards to the BC36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:39
1ST & 15
OWN 36
0
95.6%
Phil Jurkovec pass incomplete to Hunter Long, broken up by Tariq CarpenterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 16INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
96.8%
Jeff Sims pass intercepted Jahmin Muse return for no gain to the GTech 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 17TD4 plays · 12 yds · 0:5197% → 100%
Q3 2:00
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+5
96.7%
Jurkovec,P pass incomplete to Lewis,C, PENALTY GT roughing passer (Griffin, Jaq.) 5 yards to the GT4, 1ST DOWN BC, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 1:09
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
99.7%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jaelen Gill at the BC 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:40100% → 100%
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 19
+6
99.7%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Hunter Long for 6 yds to the BC 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 20TD11 plays · 55 yds · 4:210% → 2%
Q4 14:30
3RD & 4
OPP 49
-3
99.7%
James Graham sacked by Joseph Sparacio for a loss of 3 yards to the GTech 48Similar
Q4 14:30
4TH & 7
OWN 48
+28
99.7%
James Graham pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 28 yds to the BC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+15
99.7%
James Graham pass complete to Jamal Camp for 15 yds to the BC 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
99.9%
Graham, J. pass incomplete to Ezzard M., PENALTY BC pass interference (Sebastian,B) 7 yards to the BC2, 1ST DOWN GT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.3%
Ahmarean Brown run for 2 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 21DOWNS10 plays · 34 yds · 2:391% → 1%
Q4 10:09
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+14
98.6%
James Graham pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for 14 yds to the BC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-11
98.4%
Graham, J. rush for 15 yards to the BC14, PENALTY GT holding (Smith, Dontae) 11 yards to the BC40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 21
OPP 40
+24
98.7%
James Graham pass complete to Ezzard M. for 9 yds to the BC 31 for a 1ST down BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, UR (Bryce Sebastian) to the BC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 22PUNT8 plays · 44 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 23PUNT5 plays · 19 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
99.8%
James Graham pass complete to Ahmarean Brown for 14 yds to the GTech 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:03
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+5
99.8%
James Graham pass complete to Dontae Smith for 5 yds to the GTech 39Similar
Q4 2:03
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
99.8%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jaelen Gill at the BC 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:44
Zay Flowers run for 22 yds for a TD (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)
+8.3
TD · Q2 11:48
Jeff Sims pass complete to Ahmarean Brown for 32 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK)
-8.2
TD · Q2 7:13
Jeff Sims pass complete to PeJe' Harris for 31 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK)
-7.5