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UNC

North Carolina 28 at Florida State 31

FSU
2020 · Week 7 · Oct 17, 2020 · Doak Campbell Stadium
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Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:56 · TEAM punt blocked by Marvin Wilson
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 26Pregame prior−32.0Home team on offense+1.3Score differential+0.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Time remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:29: Jordan Travis run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +17.4 pts (now 64%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:46: Sam Howell pass intercepted for a TD Joshua Kaindoh return for 25 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +13.9 pts (now 71%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:02: Javonte Williams run for 1 yd for a TD Timeout NORTH CAROLINA, clock 01:02 (Grayson Atkins KICK) — UNC win probability +14.3 pts (now 45%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:07: Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for 38 yds for a TD (Sam Howell pass to Garrett Walston for Two-Point Conversion) — UNC win probability +13.2 pts (now 20%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:58: Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 25 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK) — UNC win probability +32.5 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8UNC made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 12:47UNC 4th & 11 at UNC 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.7%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:25UNC 4th & 2 at UNC 33, down 7
    Close callPunted · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:14FSU 4th & 4 at FSU 38, up 7
    Close callPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:56UNC 4th & 11 at FSU 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.3%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    73.2%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:25FSU 4th & 6 at FSU 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:56UNC 4th & 13 at FSU 37, down 7
    Close callPunted · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%−0.3
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    68.1%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.0%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:59FSU 4th & 6 at UNC 6, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    31.3%−3.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:07UNC 4th & 1 at FSU 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    55.4%−2.0
    68% to make
    Punt
    50.1%−7.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:02FSU 4th & 15 at UNC 15, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%−2.6
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.3%
    83% to make
    Punt
    77.5%−7.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:10UNC 4th & 3 at FSU 6, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.8%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    8.1%−0.7
    91% to make
    Punt
    2.1%−6.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:27FSU 4th & 9 at FSU 7, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:15FSU 4th & 1 at FSU 34, up 16
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.9%−1.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:39UNC 4th & 7 at FSU 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    15.9%−7.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:40FSU 4th & 9 at UNC 20, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    83.2%−5.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:30FSU 4th & 4 at FSU 31, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.7%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:35UNC 4th & 9 at FSU 41, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 3.9 ptsWent for it · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.7%−3.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    19.6%
    32% to make
    Punt
    10.4%−9.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UNC made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 12:40FSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:29FSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:46FSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:02UNC Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:17FSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:07UNC Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    11.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    11.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:01UNC Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    24.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    23.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:58UNC Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.2%−2.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:0585% → 84%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
15.4%
Michael Carter run for 6 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q1 14:33
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+13
15.6%
Michael Carter run for 13 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
15.7%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 8
OWN 46
-3
16.0%
Javonte Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 43Similar
Q1 12:58
3RD & 11
OWN 43
0
16.3%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Beau CorralesSimilar
Q1 12:47
4TH & 11
OWN 43
+18
16.4%
Ben Kiernan punt blocked by Ja'Khi Douglas blocked by Ja'Khi Douglas DeCalon Brooks return for 18 yds to the NCaro 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2TD
1 play · 23 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
17.1%
Jordan Travis run for 23 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0983% → 82%
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
17.0%
Michael Carter run for 4 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
17.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 4 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q1 11:34
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
17.7%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q1 11:25
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
17.9%
Ben Kiernan punt for 36 yds, downed at the FlaSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0518% → 19%
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
18.0%
Jordan Travis run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q1 10:41
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+5
18.5%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 4
OWN 38
0
18.9%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Ontaria WilsonSimilar
Q1 10:23
3RD & 4
OWN 38
0
18.8%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Warren ThompsonSimilar
Q1 10:14
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
18.7%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 42 yds, downed at the NCaro 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 3:1481% → 78%
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
18.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Khafre Brown for 14 yds to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
19.0%
Sam Howell run for 3 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q1 9:12
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+18
19.4%
Javonte Williams run for 18 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
19.5%
Javonte Williams run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+2
20.0%
Sam Howell run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 6
OPP 41
-5
20.4%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q1 7:05
3RD & 11
OPP 46
0
21.1%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Javonte WilliamsSimilar
Q1 6:56
4TH & 11
OPP 46
+17
21.6%
TEAM punt blocked by Marvin WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2622% → 22%
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
21.6%
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+3
22.1%
La'Damian Webb run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q1 5:32
3RD & 6
OWN 33
0
22.5%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Warren ThompsonSimilar
Q1 5:25
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
22.4%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the NCaro 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 39 yds · 4:2177% → 73%
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
22.8%
Michael Carter run for 9 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+4
22.8%
Sam Howell run for 4 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
23.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Michael Carter for 3 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+15
23.6%
Javonte Williams run for 15 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
23.6%
Javonte Williams run for 11 yds to the FlaSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
23.5%
Javonte Williams run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 5
OPP 29
-2
23.6%
Michael Carter run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q1 1:38
3RD & 7
OPP 31
-6
24.8%
Sam Howell sacked by Cory Durden and DJ Lundy for a loss of 6 yards to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q1 0:56
4TH & 13
OPP 37
0
26.8%
Ben Kiernan punt for 34 yds, downed at the FlaSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8FG
10 plays · 91 yds · 2:5727% → 31%
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-1
26.6%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (-1 Yards) to the FlaSt 2Similar
Q1 0:52
1ST & 11
OWN 2
0
26.7%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Jordan YoungSimilar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 11
OWN 2
+5
26.7%
Jordan Travis run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 7Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 7
+36
27.0%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Preston Daniel for 36 yds to the FlaSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+58
28.2%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 58 yds to the NCaro 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
29.3%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Preston DanielSimilar
Q2 14:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
29.4%
Webb, La'Damian rush for 4 yards to the UNC0, PENALTY FLORIDAST illegal motion 5 yards to the UNC9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
29.5%
Jordan Travis run for 5 yds to the NCaro 4Similar
Q2 13:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
29.9%
Jordan Travis sacked by Don Chapman for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 6Similar
Q2 12:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
30.7%
Ryan Fitzgerald 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9DOWNS
13 plays · 50 yds · 5:4369% → 61%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
31.3%
Javonte Williams run for 9 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
30.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Michael Carter for 2 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
31.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for 4 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+5
31.8%
Javonte Williams run for 5 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q2 10:44
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+6
32.4%
Michael Carter run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
32.5%
Michael Carter run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+10
33.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 10 yds to the FlaSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
33.1%
Javonte Williams run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+3
35.4%
Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q2 7:47
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+4
37.1%
Javonte Williams run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q2 7:07
4TH & 1
OPP 24
-1
38.9%
Javonte Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3140% → 64%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
40.4%
La'Damian Webb run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
41.1%
Jordan Travis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+12
41.2%
Jashaun Corbin run for 12 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
43.6%
Jashaun Corbin run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+39
44.2%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 39 yds to the NCaro 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
45.7%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 4 yds to the NCaro 8Similar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+5
46.8%
Jordan Travis run for 5 yds to the NCaro 3Similar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+2
46.7%
Jashaun Corbin run for 2 yds to the NCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
64.1%
Jordan Travis run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11INT TD
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:3642% → 29%
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
58.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 5 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
57.7%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q2 2:46
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-25
71.4%
Sam Howell pass intercepted for a TD Joshua Kaindoh return for 25 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 1:3927% → 45%
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
72.6%
Sam Howell sacked by Jarvis Brownlee Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the NCaro 19Similar
Q2 2:29
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+36
72.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 36 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
69.7%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Kamari MoralesSimilar
Q2 2:17
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-5
70.6%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 15
50
+13
72.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 13 yds to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q2 1:40
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+27
69.4%
Javonte Williams run for 27 yds to the FlaSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
68.6%
Javonte Williams run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 7Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
69.0%
Williams, Javonte rush for loss of 3 yards to the FLORIDAST10, PENALTY FLORIDAST personal foul (Durden, Cory) 4 yards to the FLORIDAST3, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.Similar
Q2 1:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
68.8%
Howell, Sam pass incomplete to Brown, Dyami, PENALTY FLORIDAST roughing passer 2 yards to the FLORIDAST1, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.Similar
Q2 1:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
69.0%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q2 1:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
54.7%
Javonte Williams run for 1 yd for a TD Timeout NORTH CAROLINA, clock 01:02 (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 13TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 0:3969% → 83%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
68.6%
Jordan Travis run for 15 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
69.6%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Warren ThompsonSimilar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+15
69.6%
Jordan Travis run for 15 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+33
70.4%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Warren Thompson for 33 yds to the NCaro 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
82.6%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Camren McDonald for 12 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
76.9%
Michael Carter run for 6 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15MISSED FG
8 plays · 60 yds · 2:5181% → 85%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
80.7%
La'Damian Webb run for 11 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
82.0%
Jordan Travis run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q3 13:39
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+54
82.9%
La'Damian Webb run for 54 yds to the NCaro 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:11
1ST & 3
OPP 6
-18
84.1%
La'Damian Webb run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 6 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the NCaro 21Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 21
0
84.5%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Jashaun CorbinSimilar
Q3 12:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 21
+6
84.3%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Jashaun Corbin for 6 yds to the NCaro 15Similar
Q3 12:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+33
84.5%
Ryan Fitzgerald 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16DOWNS
12 plays · 74 yds · 4:4616% → 10%
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
83.7%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the NCaro 22Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+33
84.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 33 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
85.1%
Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q3 10:34
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+18
85.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 18 yds to the FlaSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
85.2%
Javonte Williams run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 16Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+3
85.8%
Javonte Williams run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-10
86.4%
Williams, Javonte rush for 8 yards to the FLORIDAST5, PENALTY UNC holding 10 yards to the FLORIDAST23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 20
OPP 23
+6
87.5%
Sam Howell run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q3 7:57
2ND & 14
OPP 17
+11
88.3%
Sam Howell run for 11 yds to the FlaSt 6Similar
Q3 7:15
3RD & 3
OPP 6
0
90.0%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q3 7:10
4TH & 3
OPP 6
0
90.5%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:3791% → 93%
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-4
91.2%
Jordan Travis run for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 2Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 14
OWN 2
0
92.7%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Keyshawn HeltonSimilar
Q3 6:05
3RD & 14
OWN 2
+5
92.9%
Jashaun Corbin run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 7Similar
Q3 5:27
4TH & 9
OWN 7
0
93.1%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the FlaSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18TD
4 plays · 49 yds · 1:158% → 20%
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
92.0%
Sam Howell run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q3 4:43
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+9
93.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 9 yds to the FlaSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
93.5%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q3 4:07
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+38
80.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for 38 yds for a TD (Sam Howell pass to Garrett Walston for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4686% → 87%
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
85.9%
La'Damian Webb run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q3 3:22
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
86.7%
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q3 2:48
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
87.1%
Jordan Travis run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q3 2:15
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+50
86.8%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the FLORIDAST 26 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the NCaro 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20TD
5 plays · 84 yds · 2:0915% → 25%
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
85.2%
Michael Carter run for 1 yd to the NCaro 17Similar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+21
86.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 21 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+40
85.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 40 yds to the FlaSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-11
84.1%
Sam Howell sacked by Janarius Robinson for a loss of 11 yards to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 21
OPP 33
+33
74.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 33 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 21INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
77.7%
Jordan Travis pass intercepted Trey Morrison return for 9 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22MISSED FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1727% → 22%
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
73.3%
Michael Carter run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 4
OPP 24
-3
73.4%
Michael Carter run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 7
OPP 27
0
76.2%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Garrett WalstonSimilar
Q4 13:39
4TH & 7
OPP 27
+44
78.0%
Grayson Atkins 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 23MISSED FG
12 plays · 53 yds · 6:5380% → 89%
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
79.5%
La'Damian Webb run for 15 yds to the FlaSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
81.9%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Ja'Khi DouglasSimilar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
81.8%
La'Damian Webb run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+9
81.6%
Jordan Travis run for 9 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
83.5%
La'Damian Webb run for 7 yds to the NCaro 39Similar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 3
OPP 39
-1
84.4%
Jordan Travis run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 40Similar
Q4 10:03
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+19
84.6%
Jordan Travis run for 19 yds to the NCaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
86.3%
Jashaun Corbin run for 5 yds to the NCaro 16Similar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+2
88.4%
Jashaun Corbin run for 2 yds to the NCaro 14Similar
Q4 7:49
3RD & 3
OPP 14
-5
89.3%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 19Similar
Q4 7:23
3RD & 8
OPP 19
-1
89.7%
Jashaun Corbin run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 20Similar
Q4 6:40
4TH & 9
OPP 20
+38
89.4%
Ryan Fitzgerald 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 24TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 1:3510% → 43%
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
90.4%
Williams, Javonte rush for 4 yards to the UNC24, PENALTY UNC illegal block 10 yards to the UNC10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:17
1ST & 20
OWN 10
0
91.1%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Antoine GreenSimilar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 20
OWN 10
+25
91.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for 25 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
90.2%
Javonte Williams run for 16 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
89.1%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q4 5:26
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
89.1%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q4 5:19
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+24
89.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 9 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the FlaSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
57.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 25 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 2:2873% → 84%
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
72.9%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q4 4:52
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+2
72.5%
La'Damian Webb run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+3
77.1%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 3 yds to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q4 3:17
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+6
77.5%
Jordan Travis run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q4 2:30
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
83.7%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the NCaro 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 26DOWNS
9 plays · 37 yds · 1:4927% → 24%
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
73.3%
Sam Howell sacked by Janarius Robinson for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 17Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 15
OWN 17
+32
75.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 32 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-6
69.0%
Javonte Williams run for a loss of 6 yards to the NCaro 43Similar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 16
OWN 43
+15
76.0%
Howell, Sam pass incomplete to Green, Antoine, PENALTY FLORIDAST pass interference 15 yards to the FLORIDAST42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.Similar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
68.3%
Michael Carter run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 9
OPP 41
0
72.6%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Beau CorralesSimilar
Q4 0:44
3RD & 9
OPP 41
0
72.6%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q4 0:35
4TH & 9
OPP 41
0
76.3%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Javonte WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 27END OF 4TH QUARTER
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
93.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:58
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 25 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)
-32.5
TD · Q2 3:29
Jordan Travis run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)
+17.4
TD · Q2 1:02
Javonte Williams run for 1 yd for a TD Timeout NORTH CAROLINA, clock 01:02 (Grayson Atkins KICK)
-14.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com