2020 · Week 7 · Oct 17, 2020 · Bobby Dodd Stadium
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Win probability · GT
modelGT aheadCLEM aheadconfidence bandkey playGT scoreCLEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:32 · Pressley Harvin III punt for 56 yds, fair catch by Amari Rodgers at the Clem 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 6:32: Jeff Sims pass complete to Jalen Camp for 59 yds for a TD (Jude Kelley KICK) — GT win probability +1.2 pts (now 7%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:43: Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Davis Allen for 34 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +2.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:14: Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Frank Ladson Jr. for 8 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +2.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:10: Travis Etienne run for 3 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +1.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:16: Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 16 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
GT made the numbers' call on 10 of 12CLEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 13:57GT 4th & 5 at GT 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snapGo for it6.2%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.2%average punt
- Q1 9:34GT 4th & 19 at GT 13, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 7.6% before the snapGo for it7.5%−0.210% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.7%average punt
- Q1 4:03CLEM 4th & 7 at GT 13, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.6% before the snapGo for it91.5%−0.134% to convertField goalTheir call91.6%85% to makePunt90.8%−0.8average punt
- Q1 2:53GT 4th & 8 at GT 27, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snapGo for it8.1%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.2%average punt
- Q1 0:21GT 4th & 3 at CLEM 37, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call9.0%53% to convertField goal8.8%−0.240% to makePunt8.7%−0.3average punt
- Q2 11:32GT 4th & 4 at GT 24, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.1% before the snapGo for it7.1%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.2%average punt
- Q2 6:13GT 4th & 18 at GT 17, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snapGo for it4.8%−0.912% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.7%average punt
- Q2 0:47GT 4th & 6 at CLEM 35, down 38Close callWent for it · 1.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.3%−<0.140% to convertField goal1.3%45% to makePunt1.2%−0.1average punt
- Q3 12:55CLEM 4th & 10 at CLEM 22, up 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.6% before the snapGo for it98.5%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.6%average punt
- Q3 9:52GT 4th & 8 at CLEM 34, down 45Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.7%34% to convertField goal0.7%−<0.147% to makePunt0.7%−0.1average punt
- Q3 8:38CLEM 4th & 17 at CLEM 38, up 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.1% before the snapGo for it99.0%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.1%average punt
- Q3 6:20GT 4th & 3 at GT 32, down 52Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q3 5:27CLEM 4th & 7 at CLEM 29, up 52Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.2%−<0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.2%average punt
- Q3 3:04GT 4th & 3 at GT 35, down 52Close callPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 1:20CLEM 4th & 1 at CLEM 48, up 52Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.5%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.3%−0.1average punt
- Q4 13:33CLEM 4th & 4 at GT 35, up 52Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.6%48% to convertField goal99.5%−0.145% to makePunt99.4%−0.1average punt
- Q4 10:09GT 4th & 5 at GT 40, down 59Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 5:40GT 4th & 12 at GT 15, down 66Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.122% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 1:39CLEM 4th & 14 at GT 45, up 66Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.119% to convertField goal99.8%−<0.125% to makePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1CLEM made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
- Q1 7:55CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.1%97% to makeGo for two92.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:32GT Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call9.0%97% to makeGo for two9.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:14CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.7%97% to makeGo for two91.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:43CLEM Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.6%97% to makeGo for two92.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:05CLEM Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.9%97% to makeGo for two94.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:14CLEM Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.7%97% to makeGo for two97.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:10CLEM Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.6%97% to makeGo for two98.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:16CLEM Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.9%97% to makeGo for two98.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:21CLEM Touchdown, up 51 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:38CLEM Touchdown, up 58 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:41CLEM Touchdown, up 65 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartGTDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:585% → 5%
Q1 13:57
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
4.9%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Clem 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 2FUMBLE6 plays · 45 yds · 2:2495% → 95%
Q1 12:49
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+24
5.2%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Cornell Powell for 24 yds to the GTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+2
5.3%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 2 yds to the GTech 30Similar
Q1 11:31
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+8
5.5%
Travis Etienne run for 8 yds to the GTech 22 Travis Etienne fumbled, forced by Charlie Thomas, recovered by GTech Tre SwillingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 3PUNT4 plays · -9 yds · 1:466% → 6%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-8
5.7%
Jeff Sims sacked by Myles Murphy for a loss of 8 yards to the GTech 14 Jeff Sims fumbled, forced by Myles Murphy, recovered by GTech Zach Quinney , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 10:14
3RD & 16
OWN 16
-3
5.9%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Dontae Smith for a loss of 3 yards to the GTech 13Similar
Q1 9:34
4TH & 19
OWN 13
+13
6.1%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 41 yds , Amari Rodgers returns for 13 yds to the GTech 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 4TD5 plays · 41 yds · 1:3594% → 94%
Q1 9:13
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+16
6.2%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to E.J. Williams for 16 yds to the GTech 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+19
6.4%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 19 yds to the GTech 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
5.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Cornell Powell for 5 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 5TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:146% → 7%
CLEMDrive 6TD2 plays · 83 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+83
6.5%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 83 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 7FUMBLE2 plays · -9 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
6.5%
Jeff Sims run for a loss of 9 yards to the GTech 16 Jeff Sims fumbled, recovered by Clem K.J. HenrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 8FG4 plays · 3 yds · 1:5794% → 93%
GTDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:067% → 7%
CLEMDrive 10INT4 plays · 11 yds · 0:5793% → 93%
GTDrive 11FUMBLE4 plays · 8 yds · 1:187% → 8%
Q1 0:21
4TH & 3
OPP 37
-1
7.5%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for a loss of 1 yard to the Clem 38 Jahmyr Gibbs fumbled, forced by Mike Jones Jr., recovered by GTech Jeff SimsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 12TD6 plays · 62 yds · 2:1793% → 95%
Q2 14:10
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+6
7.8%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 6 yds to the GTech 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+13
7.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to E.J. Williams for 13 yds to the GTech 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
5.2%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Davis Allen for 34 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:506% → 6%
Q2 11:32
4TH & 4
OWN 24
0
6.0%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 56 yds, fair catch by Amari Rodgers at the Clem 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 14TD10 plays · 80 yds · 4:1995% → 95%
Q2 10:17
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+22
5.4%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Travis Etienne for 22 yds to the Clem 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+9
5.2%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Lyn-J Dixon for 9 yds to the GTech 42Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+35
5.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 35 yds to the GTech 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 15PUNT5 plays · -8 yds · 0:465% → 5%
CLEMDrive 16TD8 plays · 68 yds · 2:5095% → 97%
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+14
5.5%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Cornell Powell for 14 yds to the Clem 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
5.3%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Joseph Ngata for 6 yds to the GTech 48Similar
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
5.2%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Travis Etienne for 7 yds to the GTech 35Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+12
4.7%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to J.C. Chalk for 12 yds to the GTech 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:50
1ST & 15
OPP 28
+20
4.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Brannon Spector for 20 yds to the GTech 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
2.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Frank Ladson Jr. for 8 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 17INT3 plays · 6 yds · 0:233% → 3%
CLEMDrive 18TD2 plays · 7 yds · 0:2197% → 99%
GTDrive 19DOWNS10 plays · 43 yds · 1:131% → 1%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+21
1.4%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 6 yds to the GTech 31 for a 1ST down CLEMSON Penalty, Personal Foul (Baylon Spector) to the GTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 20TD4 plays · 68 yds · 0:1699% → 99%
GTDrive 21END OF HALF2 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 22PUNT8 plays · 14 yds · 1:5399% → 99%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
1.4%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Frank Ladson Jr. for 5 yds to the Clem 13Similar
Q3 13:44
3RD & 4
OWN 14
+8
1.2%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Frank Ladson Jr. for 8 yds to the Clem 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
4TH & 10
OWN 22
+55
1.4%
Will Spiers punt for 55 yds , Josh Tukes returns for a loss of 1 yard to the GTech 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 23DOWNS7 plays · 33 yds · 2:551% → 1%
Q3 9:52
4TH & 8
OPP 34
-11
0.7%
Jeff Sims sacked by Jake Venables for a loss of 11 yards to the Clem 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 24PUNT4 plays · -7 yds · 0:4699% → 99%
GTDrive 25FUMBLE1 play · -7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-7
0.6%
Jeff Sims sacked by Trenton Simpson for a loss of 7 yards to the GTech 6 Jeff Sims fumbled, recovered by Clem Justin Mascoll , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 26TD2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0599% → 99%
GTDrive 27PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:500% → 0%
Q3 6:20
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
0.3%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Will Swinney at the Clem 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 28PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:2599% → 99%
Q3 5:27
4TH & 7
OWN 29
+5
0.7%
Will Spiers punt for 48 yds , Josh Tukes returns for 5 yds to the GTech 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 29PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 2:020% → 0%
CLEMDrive 30TD16 plays · 83 yds · 6:17100% → 100%
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+22
0.5%
Taisun Phommachanh run for 7 yds to the Clem 24 for a 1ST down GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (Avery Showell) to the Clem 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:58
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+5
0.4%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Jaelyn Lay for 5 yds to the Clem 48Similar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
0.4%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Will Swinney for 4 yds to the GTech 47Similar
Q4 13:33
4TH & 4
OPP 35
+14
0.4%
Hunter Helms pass complete to Kobe Pace for 14 yds to the GTech 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
0.2%
Hunter Helms pass complete to Kobe Pace for 7 yds for a TD (Aidan Swanson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 31PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 1:240% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 32TD5 plays · 91 yds · 1:59100% → 100%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
0.3%
Hunter Helms pass complete to Will Swinney for 9 yds to the GTech 44Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+9
0.3%
Hunter Helms pass complete to Will Brown for 9 yds to the GTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
0.3%
Hunter Helms pass complete to Ajou Ajou for 35 yds for a TD (Aidan Swanson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 33PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 1:500% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 34PUNT9 plays · 24 yds · 3:53100% → 100%
Q4 4:08
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+12
0.2%
Will Spiers pass complete to Drew Swinney for 12 yds to the GTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 35Uncategorized3 plays · 47 yds · 1:300% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:43
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Davis Allen for 34 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK)
-2.7
TD · Q2 3:14
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Frank Ladson Jr. for 8 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK)
-2.3
TD · Q1 6:32
Jeff Sims pass complete to Jalen Camp for 59 yds for a TD (Jude Kelley KICK)
+1.2