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VT

Virginia Tech 45 at North Carolina 56

UNC
2020 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2020 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadVT aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreVT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-19.8UNC 62.1%Hendon Hooker pass complete to TayvionRobinson for 33 yds for a TD TimeoutNORTH CAROLINA, clock 00:15 (Two-PointConversion failed )AWAY 37 - HOME 42 · Q3 0:15
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:15 · Hendon Hooker pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 33 yds for a TD Timeout NORTH CAROLINA, clock 00:15 (Two-Point Conversion failed )
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 139Home team on offense+0.5Pregame prior+4.8Score differential+0.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.5Blowout margin+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:13: James Mitchell run for 1 yd for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK) — VT win probability +7.5 pts (now 26%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:16: Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 43 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK) — UNC win probability +10.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:04: Khalil Herbert run for 52 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK) — VT win probability +10.7 pts (now 18%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:15: Hendon Hooker pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 33 yds for a TD Timeout NORTH CAROLINA, clock 00:15 (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — VT win probability +19.8 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 12:37: Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 12 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK) — UNC win probability +14.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 2 of 3VT made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 9:07VT 4th & 3 at VT 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:34VT 4th & 4 at VT 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:53VT 4th & 6 at VT 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:43UNC 4th & 8 at UNC 22, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.7%−1.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:30VT 4th & 1 at VT 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    24.8%−1.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:11VT 4th & 3 at UNC 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    21.1%−0.9
    30% to make
    Punt
    21.1%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:55VT 4th & 19 at UNC 38, down 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%−0.8
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.4%−<0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    6.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:41UNC 4th & 4 at UNC 31, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.3%−0.7
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.0%
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:14VT 4th & 17 at VT 29, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−1.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.3%
    average punt
  10. Q4 0:01UNC 4th & 7 at VT 10, up 11
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.5%−1.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    96.6%
    88% to make
    Punt
    94.4%−2.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 7 of 8VT made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 10:22UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:52UNC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:09UNC Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:13VT Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:28VT Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:17UNC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:16UNC Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 7:14UNC Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 5:58VT Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 5:04VT Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 0:15VT Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    32.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    32.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 12:37UNC Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 8:49UNC Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 5:20VT Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    5.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    5.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:3369% → 70%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
68.9%
Michael Carter run for 5 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
68.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 3 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q1 14:02
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+7
68.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 7 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
68.8%
Howell, Sam pass incomplete to Brown, Dyami, PENALTY UNC holding (Richards, Asim) 10 yards to the UNC30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 20
OWN 30
+4
68.7%
Michael Carter run for 4 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 16
OWN 34
+12
68.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 12 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q1 12:40
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+7
68.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 7 yds to the VTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
68.9%
Javonte Williams run for 15 yds to the VTech 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
69.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 12 yds to the VTech 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+16
68.9%
Michael Carter run for 16 yds to the VTech 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
68.9%
Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the VTech 1Similar
Q1 10:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
70.3%
Javonte Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:0830% → 30%
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
69.7%
Khalil Herbert run for 5 yds to the VTech 30Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
69.6%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 2 yds to the VTech 32Similar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
69.9%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete to Tre TurnerSimilar
Q1 9:07
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
70.0%
Braxton Burmeister punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3TD
6 plays · 83 yds · 1:1470% → 73%
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
69.9%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Joshua Ezeudu) to the NCaro 12Similar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 15
OWN 12
+15
69.9%
Michael Carter run for 15 yds to the NCaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
69.8%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+28
69.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 28 yds to the VTech 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
70.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 8 yds to the VTech 37Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+37
73.4%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 37 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0928% → 27%
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
72.4%
Braxton Burmeister run for 3 yds to the VTech 28Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
72.4%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete to James MitchellSimilar
Q1 7:03
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+3
72.8%
Braxton Burmeister run for 3 yds to the VTech 31Similar
Q1 6:34
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
73.0%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the NCaro 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5TD
7 plays · 66 yds · 2:1374% → 81%
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
73.7%
Javonte Williams run for 9 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 1
OWN 43
0
74.3%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Beau CorralesSimilar
Q1 6:06
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+3
74.1%
Javonte Williams run for 3 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
74.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for 11 yds to the VTech 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
75.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 45Similar
Q1 4:33
2ND & 12
OPP 34
+26
75.3%
Sam Howell run for 11 yds to the VTech 34 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Targeting (Chamarri Conner) to the VTech 19 for a 1ST down. Conner ejected for targeting. Similar
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
80.7%
Javonte Williams run for 19 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 6TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:4722% → 26%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
78.2%
Braxton Burmeister run for 1 yd to the VTech 26Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
79.7%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 1 yd to the VTech 27Similar
Q1 3:12
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+15
80.2%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Nick Gallo for 15 yds to the VTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
80.2%
Braxton Burmeister run for 5 yds to the VTech 47Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+36
80.3%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tre Turner for 36 yds to the NCaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
79.9%
Raheem Blackshear run for 2 yds to the NCaro 15Similar
Q1 0:49
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+7
80.4%
Braxton Burmeister run for 7 yds to the NCaro 8Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+2
81.5%
Raheem Blackshear run for 2 yds to the NCaro 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
81.1%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete to Raheem BlackshearSimilar
Q2 14:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
81.2%
Braxton Burmeister run for 5 yds to the NCaro 1Similar
Q2 14:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
73.7%
James Mitchell run for 1 yd for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:4676% → 76%
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
76.3%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Joshua Ezeudu) to the NCaro 20Similar
Q2 14:07
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+10
76.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Khafre Brown for 10 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
76.6%
Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q2 13:26
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
76.4%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0725% → 24%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
75.3%
Hendon Hooker run for 5 yds to the VTech 47Similar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 5
OWN 47
-1
74.7%
Khalil Herbert run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 46Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 6
OWN 46
0
75.4%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to James MitchellSimilar
Q2 11:53
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
75.8%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0377% → 77%
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
77.3%
Michael Carter run for 6 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
77.5%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 4
OWN 26
-4
77.1%
Sam Howell sacked by Amare Barno for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 22Similar
Q2 10:43
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
76.7%
Ben Kiernan punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Tayvion Robinson at the VTech 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 10TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 4:1124% → 31%
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
76.0%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete to Raheem BlackshearSimilar
Q2 10:31
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
76.5%
Braxton Burmeister run for 5 yds to the VTech 35Similar
Q2 9:51
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+4
76.6%
Braxton Burmeister run for 4 yds to the VTech 39Similar
Q2 9:30
4TH & 1
OWN 39
+6
76.9%
Raheem Blackshear run for 6 yds to the VTech 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
76.8%
Khalil Herbert run for 11 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
76.3%
Khalil Herbert run for 7 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+15
76.3%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tre Turner for 15 yds to the NCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+14
75.8%
Braxton Burmeister run for 14 yds to the NCaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
68.8%
Khalil Herbert run for 8 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4373% → 80%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
73.2%
Javonte Williams run for 29 yds to the VTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
75.2%
Javonte Williams run for 2 yds to the VTech 44Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+11
75.2%
Michael Carter run for 11 yds to the VTech 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+27
75.5%
Michael Carter run for 27 yds to the VTech 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
80.4%
Dazz Newsome run for 6 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 12DOWNS
10 plays · 21 yds · 3:0021% → 21%
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
78.7%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete to Nick GalloSimilar
Q2 3:59
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
78.9%
Braxton Burmeister run for no gain to the VTech 37Similar
Q2 3:07
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+9
79.8%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 9 yds to the VTech 46Similar
Q2 2:58
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+5
78.8%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jeremiah Gemmel) to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
78.3%
Khalil Herbert run for 2 yds to the NCaro 47Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+4
78.7%
Braxton Burmeister run for 4 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+1
78.6%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 1 yd to the NCaro 42Similar
Q2 1:11
4TH & 3
OPP 42
0
79.2%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete to Tre TurnerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13TD
4 plays · 58 yds · 0:4385% → 94%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
84.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 4 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+5
84.6%
Michael Carter run for 5 yds to the VTech 49Similar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+6
83.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 6 yds to the VTech 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
93.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 43 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 14END OF HALF
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:099% → 8%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.3%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete to Nick GalloSimilar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
91.4%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete to Tayvion RobinsonSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+12
91.6%
Jalen Holston run for 12 yds to the VTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 15FG
15 plays · 37 yds · 5:008% → 9%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
92.1%
Khalil Herbert run for 3 yds to the VTech 28Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
92.1%
Hendon Hooker run for 2 yds to the VTech 30Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+15
92.3%
Hooker, Hendon pass incomplete to Turner, Tre, PENALTY UNC pass interference (McMichael, Kyler) 15 yards to the VATECH45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VATECH.Similar
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
92.1%
Khalil Herbert run for no gain to the VTech 45Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
92.5%
Herbert, Khalil rush for 8 yards to the UNC47, PENALTY UNC substitution infraction 5 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 5
50
+4
92.3%
Khalil Herbert run for 4 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q3 12:43
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+6
92.2%
Khalil Herbert run for 6 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
92.5%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to James Mitchell for 8 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+3
92.5%
Raheem Blackshear run for 3 yds to the NCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
92.6%
Hendon Hooker run for no gain to the NCaro 29Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-5
93.2%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Illegal Shift (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 34Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 15
OPP 34
-4
93.5%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 38Similar
Q3 10:08
3RD & 19
OPP 38
0
94.3%
Hendon Hooker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:55
4TH & 19
OPP 38
+55
90.8%
Brian Johnson 55 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3293% → 98%
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
92.5%
Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q3 9:19
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
92.8%
Michael Carter run for 4 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+9
92.9%
Javonte Williams run for 9 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
93.4%
Javonte Williams run for 14 yds to the VTech 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+29
93.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for 29 yds to the VTech 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
98.3%
Michael Carter run for 16 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 17TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:083% → 9%
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+57
97.3%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to James Mitchell for 57 yds to the NCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
97.0%
Khalil Herbert run for 8 yds to the NCaro 10Similar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 2
OPP 10
+5
97.0%
Hendon Hooker run for 5 yds to the NCaro 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
90.8%
Hendon Hooker run for 5 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 18TD
4 plays · 54 yds · 0:468% → 18%
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
92.1%
Khalil Herbert run for 2 yds to the VTech 48Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
92.3%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Tayvion RobinsonSimilar
Q3 5:04
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+52
81.6%
Khalil Herbert run for 52 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1285% → 84%
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
84.7%
Javonte Williams run for 1 yd to the NCaro 26Similar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
84.7%
Javonte Williams run for 5 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q3 3:51
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
84.4%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Michael CarterSimilar
Q3 3:41
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+4
83.6%
Ben Kiernan punt for 50 yds , Tayvion Robinson returns for 4 yds to the VTech 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 20TD
8 plays · 77 yds · 3:0515% → 38%
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
85.2%
Khalil Herbert run for 3 yds to the VTech 26Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+12
84.7%
Hendon Hooker run for 12 yds to the VTech 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
83.8%
Khalil Herbert run for 7 yds to the VTech 45Similar
Q3 1:41
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+8
83.4%
Raheem Blackshear run for 8 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
82.7%
Raheem Blackshear run for 2 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q3 0:46
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+12
82.8%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to James Mitchell for 12 yds to the NCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
81.9%
Hendon Hooker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:15
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+33
62.1%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 33 yds for a TD Timeout NORTH CAROLINA, clock 00:15 (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2373% → 93%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.9%
Javonte Williams run for no gain to the NCaro 25Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
72.4%
Javonte Williams run for 7 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+15
72.4%
Sam Howell pass complete to Michael Carter for 15 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+18
77.2%
Michael Carter run for 18 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+23
78.1%
Javonte Williams run for 23 yds to the VTech 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
92.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 12 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 1:139% → 7%
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
91.2%
Khalil Herbert run for 11 yds to the VTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
90.5%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Tre TurnerSimilar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
90.9%
Hendon Hooker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:52
3RD & 10
OWN 36
-7
92.0%
Hendon Hooker sacked by Tomari Fox for a loss of 7 yards to the VTech 29Similar
Q4 11:14
4TH & 17
OWN 29
0
93.1%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the NCaro 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 23TD
5 plays · 78 yds · 2:1893% → 98%
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
93.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for 15 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
94.0%
Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+13
94.4%
Michael Carter run for 13 yds to the VTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-15
94.7%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Dyami Brown) to the NCaro 38Similar
Q4 8:49
1ST & 25
OWN 38
+62
98.2%
Michael Carter run for 62 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 24TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 3:033% → 10%
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
96.8%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Raheem Blackshear for 4 yds to the VTech 27Similar
Q4 7:52
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+7
96.7%
Raheem Blackshear run for 7 yds to the VTech 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+20
96.8%
Tayvion Robinson pass complete to Hendon Hooker for 20 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
96.8%
Raheem Blackshear run for 3 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+7
97.1%
Khalil Herbert run for 7 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
97.6%
Khalil Herbert run for 3 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+7
97.2%
Hendon Hooker run for 7 yds to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
90.0%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to James Mitchell for 26 yds for a TD NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (2 Yards) to the NCaro 1 (H. Hooker Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 25DOWNS
14 plays · 35 yds · 5:1095% → 99%
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
50
+12
94.7%
Sam Howell run for 12 yds to the VTech 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
94.9%
Javonte Williams run for 5 yds to the VTech 33Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+6
95.6%
Javonte Williams run for 6 yds to the VTech 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
96.4%
Javonte Williams run for 4 yds to the VTech 23Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+10
97.1%
Javonte Williams run for 10 yds to the VTech 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
97.7%
Javonte Williams run for 8 yds to the VTech 5Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 2
OPP 5
-1
98.1%
Javonte Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 6Similar
Q4 0:41
3RD & 3
OPP 6
-4
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the VTech 10Similar
Q4 0:01
4TH & 7
OPP 10
-5
98.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the VTech 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 26END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:012% → 2%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-3
97.6%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-3 Yards) to the VTech 12Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 13
OWN 12
-3
97.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the VTech 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:15
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 33 yds for a TD Timeout NORTH CAROLINA, clock 00:15 (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-19.8
TD · Q4 12:37
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 12 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)
+14.3
TD · Q3 5:04
Khalil Herbert run for 52 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK)
-10.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com