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Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreMIA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:31 · D'Eriq King run for 7 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 14:54: Travis Etienne run for 2 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +3.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:14: Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Braden Galloway for 11 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +3.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:56: Travis Etienne run for 72 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +6.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:31: Trevor Lawrence run for 3 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +2.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:31: D'Eriq King run for 7 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +2.4 pts (now 3%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 7MIA made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
- Q1 7:21MIA 4th & 18 at MIA 45, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.9% before the snapGo for it16.7%−0.313% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.0%average punt
- Q2 13:28MIA 4th & 19 at MIA 16, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snapGo for it13.1%−1.510% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.6%average punt
- Q2 11:52CLEM 4th & 16 at CLEM 33, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.1% before the snapGo for it85.1%−1.715% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.8%average punt
- Q2 11:02MIA 4th & 5 at MIA 20, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.1% before the snapGo for it13.6%−0.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.7%average punt
- Q2 7:00CLEM 4th & 17 at MIA 19, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.4% before the snapGo for it85.4%−1.313% to convertField goalTheir call86.6%77% to makePunt83.0%−3.6average punt
- Q2 3:53MIA 4th & 13 at CLEM 25, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.0% before the snapGo for it12.3%−0.620% to convertField goalTheir call13.0%66% to makePunt10.7%−2.3average punt
- Q2 0:49MIA 4th & 7 at MIA 28, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.9% before the snapGo for it7.8%−1.036% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.8%average punt
- Q2 0:00CLEM 4th & 6 at MIA 44, up 18Numbers favored punt by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 90.6% before the snapGo for it90.6%−0.140% to convertField goalTheir call89.6%−1.127% to makePunt90.7%average punt
- Q3 13:20MIA 4th & 6 at MIA 29, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snapGo for it13.5%−0.339% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.9%average punt
- Q3 9:33CLEM 4th & 4 at CLEM 42, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.5% before the snapGo for it86.8%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.9%average punt
- Q3 8:08MIA 4th & 5 at MIA 25, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.9% before the snapGo for it13.0%−0.440% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.4%average punt
- Q3 6:56MIA 4th & 1 at MIA 34, down 18Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt6.2%−0.8average punt
- Q3 5:20CLEM 4th & 6 at MIA 15, up 18Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.1% before the snapGo for it94.8%−0.237% to convertField goalTheir call95.0%83% to makePunt92.4%−2.6average punt
- Q3 0:21MIA 4th & 24 at MIA 31, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snapGo for it1.0%−0.67% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.6%average punt
- Q4 12:37CLEM 4th & 23 at CLEM 23, up 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snapGo for it99.1%−0.56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.6%average punt
- Q4 8:31MIA 4th & 7 at CLEM 7, down 25Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.6%−<0.128% to convertField goal0.6%91% to makePunt-0.0%−0.6average punt
- Q4 2:01CLEM 4th & 7 at MIA 23, up 25Close callWent for it · 99.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.7%−<0.136% to convertField goal99.8%70% to makePunt99.5%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 6MIA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 9:50CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.8%97% to makeGo for two82.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:54CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.3%97% to makeGo for two85.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:14CLEM Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.3%97% to makeGo for two91.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:56CLEM Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.5%97% to makeGo for two93.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:31CLEM Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.5%97% to makeGo for two98.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:31MIA Touchdown, down 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call2.1%97% to makeGo for two2.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:32CLEM Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLEMDrive 1TD11 plays · 75 yds · 4:4586% → 86%
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.3%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for no gain to the Clem 25Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
86.1%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 6 yds to the Clem 31Similar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+11
85.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 11 yds to the Clem 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
85.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Brannon Spector for 9 yds to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+6
85.8%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Travis Etienne for 6 yds to the MiaFl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+4
85.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Cornell Powell for 4 yds to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q1 10:31
4TH & 4
OPP 37
+5
85.2%
Lawrence, Trevor pass incomplete, PENALTY MIAMI offside 5 yards to the MIAMI32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON.Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+24
86.2%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Braden Galloway for 24 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2PUNT10 plays · 20 yds · 1:5914% → 14%
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
85.8%
D'Eriq King sacked by Baylon Spector for a loss of 5 yards to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+8
85.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 8 yds to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q1 8:18
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+15
85.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 15 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
85.5%
Jordan, Brevin pass incomplete to Mallory, Will, PENALTY CLEMSON pass interference 15 yards to the CLEMSON47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMI.Similar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 10
OPP 47
-8
85.4%
D'Eriq King sacked by Myles Murphy and Baylon Spector for a loss of 8 yards to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q1 7:21
4TH & 18
OWN 45
0
85.8%
Lou Hedley punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Amari Rodgers at the Clem 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 3TD18 plays · 99 yds · 6:5486% → 89%
Q1 5:55
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+1
85.4%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Travis Etienne for 1 yd to the Clem 12Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 9
OWN 12
+12
85.2%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Travis Etienne for 12 yds to the Clem 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+15
85.2%
Lawrence, Trevor rush for 11 yards to the MIAMI40, PENALTY MIAMI holding 0 yards to the CLEMSON49, NO PLAY, PENALTY MIAMI personal foul 15 yards to the MIAMI46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON.Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+12
85.5%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 12 yds to the MiaFl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+4
85.5%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Brannon Spector for 4 yds to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q1 0:08
3RD & 14
OPP 24
+22
84.8%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Travis Etienne for 22 yds to the MiaFl 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4PUNT6 plays · -9 yds · 1:0213% → 12%
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
87.1%
D'Eriq King run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 24 D'Eriq King fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Donald Chaney Jr.Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-3
87.2%
D'Eriq King sacked by Justin Mascoll for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 21Similar
Q2 13:28
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
87.7%
Lou Hedley punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Amari Rodgers at the Clem 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 5PUNT4 plays · -6 yds · 1:0889% → 88%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-3
88.5%
Trevor Lawrence sacked by Jaelan Phillips for a loss of 3 yards to the Clem 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4613% → 12%
Q2 11:02
4TH & 5
OWN 20
+1
87.7%
Lou Hedley punt for 51 yds , Amari Rodgers returns for 1 yd to the Clem 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 7MISSED FG12 plays · 51 yds · 3:3888% → 88%
Q2 10:05
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+31
88.2%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Frank Ladson Jr. for 31 yds to the MiaFl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
89.0%
Lawrence, Trevor pass incomplete to Rodgers, Amari, PENALTY MIAMI holding 10 yards to the MIAMI27, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON.Similar
Q2 9:15
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+14
88.8%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 14 yds to the MiaFl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 10
OPP 12
-10
88.7%
Lawrence, Trevor pass complete to Etienne, Travis for 11 yards to the MIAMI1, PENALTY CLEMSON holding (Stewart, Cade) 10 yards to the MIAMI22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 20
OPP 22
+3
88.8%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Travis Etienne for 3 yds to the MiaFl 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8FG9 plays · 55 yds · 2:3212% → 14%
CLEMDrive 9TD8 plays · 70 yds · 1:4686% → 91%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+21
86.2%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Braden Galloway for 21 yds to the MiaFl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
50
+14
87.2%
Lyn-J Dixon run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the MiaFl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-10
87.5%
Lawrence, Trevor pass complete to Rodgers, Amari for 11 yards to the MIAMI24, PENALTY CLEMSON holding 10 yards to the MIAMI45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 20
OPP 45
+13
87.7%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 13 yds to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
88.1%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Frank Ladson Jr. for 11 yds to the MiaFl 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
91.2%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Braden Galloway for 11 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10PUNT7 plays · 3 yds · 0:219% → 9%
CLEMDrive 11END OF HALF TD8 plays · 33 yds · 0:4492% → 87%
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+11
92.3%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Travis Etienne for 11 yds to the Clem 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+18
91.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Braden Galloway for 18 yds to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 44
+48
87.4%
B.T. Potter 61 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Jared Harrison-Hunte DJ Ivey return for 48 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 1:4013% → 12%
CLEMDrive 13FUMBLE3 plays · -4 yds · 0:3887% → 87%
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-4
87.3%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Travis Etienne for a loss of 4 yards to the Clem 24Similar
Q3 12:34
3RD & 14
OWN 24
+16
86.5%
Trevor Lawrence run for 16 yds to the Clem 40 Trevor Lawrence fumbled, forced by Bubba Bolden, recovered by MiaFl Gilbert FriersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14INT4 plays · 14 yds · 1:0815% → 16%
CLEMDrive 15PUNT7 plays · 22 yds · 1:5187% → 88%
Q3 10:28
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+6
87.1%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 6 yds to the Clem 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2412% → 11%
CLEMDrive 17TD1 play · 72 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18DOWNS5 plays · 9 yds · 0:596% → 6%
CLEMDrive 19MISSED FG5 plays · 19 yds · 1:3696% → 96%
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
96.1%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Larry Hodges) to the MiaFl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
96.2%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Frank Ladson Jr. for 1 yd to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q3 5:20
4TH & 6
OPP 15
+33
95.9%
B.T. Potter 33 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Bubba Bolden Corey Flagg Jr. return for 13 yds to the MiaFl 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20INT3 plays · 15 yds · 0:165% → 5%
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
95.0%
King, D'Eriq pass incomplete to Harley, Mike, PENALTY CLEMSON pass interference (Turner, Nolan) 15 yards to the MIAMI35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMI.Similar
Q3 5:03
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
94.8%
D'Eriq King pass intercepted Derion Kendrick return for no gain to the Clem 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 21TD7 plays · 60 yds · 2:3196% → 99%
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
96.5%
Lawrence, Trevor pass incomplete to Spector, Brannon, PENALTY MIAMI unnecessary roughness (Smith, Keontra) 15 yards to the MIAMI32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON - Keontra Smith disqualified for TargetingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 22PUNT8 plays · 6 yds · 2:091% → 1%
Q3 2:01
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-10
99.0%
King, D'Eriq pass complete to Wiggins, Dee for 6 yards to the MIAMI37, PENALTY MIAMI holding (Clarke, Marcus) 10 yards to the MIAMI21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:41
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+24
99.0%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 24 yds to the MiaFl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-3
98.9%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Donald Chaney Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q3 1:01
3RD & 13
OWN 42
-11
99.0%
D'Eriq King sacked by Jake Venables for a loss of 11 yards to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q3 0:21
4TH & 24
OWN 31
0
99.1%
Lou Hedley punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Amari Rodgers at the Clem 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 23PUNT7 plays · 0 yds · 2:2399% → 100%
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+8
99.5%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Cornell Powell for 8 yds to the Clem 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
99.5%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Brannon Spector for a loss of 3 yards to the Clem 33Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 13
OWN 33
-4
99.5%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to E.J. Williams for a loss of 4 yards to the Clem 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 24TD11 plays · 71 yds · 4:051% → 3%
CLEMDrive 25TD8 plays · 65 yds · 3:5898% → 100%
MIADrive 26INT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:200% → 0%
CLEMDrive 27Uncategorized8 plays · 25 yds · 2:48100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:56
Travis Etienne run for 72 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK)
+6.6
TD · Q2 14:54
Travis Etienne run for 2 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK)
+3.7
TD · Q2 1:14
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Braden Galloway for 11 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK)
+3.1