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PITT

Pittsburgh 30 at Boston College 31

BC
2020 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2020 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
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Win probability · BC
modelBC aheadPITT aheadconfidence bandkey playBC scorePITT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:29 · Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Vincent Davis, broken up by Bryce Sebastian
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseTime remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differential
+21.5+10.80−10.8−21.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 175Pregame prior−2.4Home team on offense+3.6Time remaining+1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.3Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 14:26: Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Zay Flowers for 77 yds for a TD (Aaron Boumerhi KICK) — BC win probability +14.0 pts (now 61%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:18: Vincent Davis run for 4 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK) — PITT win probability +21.7 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. FG · Q4 0:40: Alex Kessman 58 yd FG GOOD — PITT win probability +31.2 pts (now 49%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  4. TD · OT 0:00: Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Zay Flowers for 25 yds for a TD (Aaron Boumerhi KICK) — BC win probability +20.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 3 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman PAT MISSED) — PITT win probability +13.5 pts (now 34%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BC made the numbers' call on 8 of 8PITT made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00PITT 4th & 1 at BC 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    65.1%−0.2
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:30BC 4th & 6 at PITT 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.3%
    90% to make
    Punt
    36.4%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:30PITT 4th & 3 at BC 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    62.3%−0.3
    32% to make
    Punt
    62.4%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:15BC 4th & 6 at BC 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00PITT 4th & 13 at PITT 6, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%−1.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:50BC 4th & 2 at PITT 2, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    37.9%−1.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    31.8%−7.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:41PITT 4th & 7 at PITT 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:52BC 4th & 23 at BC 18, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−4.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00PITT 4th & 7 at BC 37, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.5%−0.9
    40% to make
    Punt
    50.8%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:12PITT 4th & 9 at BC 31, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.0%
    54% to make
    Punt
    30.3%−1.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:12BC 4th & 12 at BC 41, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.8%−3.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:06PITT 4th & 15 at PITT 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−3.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:22BC 4th & 17 at BC 44, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%−3.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00BC 4th & 15 at BC 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%−4.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:43PITT 4th & 7 at PITT 38, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%−0.9
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:29PITT 4th & 5 at BC 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    32.6%−1.9
    34% to make
    Punt
    31.0%−3.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:54BC 4th & 9 at BC 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%−3.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:40PITT 4th & 20 at BC 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.1%−8.8
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.9%
    32% to make
    Punt
    7.7%−10.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3PITT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 3:15PITT Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:00BC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:35PITT Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:50BC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 14:26BC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:18PITT Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PITTDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 40 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
28.7%
Vincent Davis run for 6 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+25
28.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 25 yds to the BC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
28.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Vincent Davis for 6 yds to the BC 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 38
-4
28.7%
Vincent Davis run for a loss of 4 yards to the BC 35 Vincent Davis fumbled, recovered by Pitt Calijah KanceySimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 35
0
28.7%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 35
0
28.7%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 2FG
12 plays · 86 yds · 3:4430% → 32%
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+26
29.5%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Hunter Long for 26 yds to the BC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
29.5%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Zay Flowers for 7 yds to the BC 39Similar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 3
OWN 39
-3
29.7%
David Bailey run for a loss of 3 yards to the BC 36Similar
Q1 13:14
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+27
29.5%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to CJ Lewis for 27 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
29.7%
David Bailey run for 7 yds to the Pitt 30Similar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+5
29.8%
David Bailey run for 5 yds to the Pitt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
29.8%
David Bailey run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 26Similar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+14
29.8%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to CJ Lewis for 14 yds to the Pitt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
29.8%
David Bailey run for 2 yds to the Pitt 10Similar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+2
29.8%
David Bailey run for 2 yds to the Pitt 8Similar
Q1 13:14
3RD & 6
OPP 8
0
29.7%
Phil Jurkovec pass incomplete to Zay Flowers, broken up by Paris FordSimilar
Q1 9:30
4TH & 6
OPP 8
+25
32.0%
Aaron Boumerhi 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 6:1568% → 69%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
31.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 27 yds to the BC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
31.4%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+2
31.5%
Vincent Davis run for 2 yds to the BC 46Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 8
OPP 46
0
31.5%
Vincent Davis run for no gain to the BC 46Similar
Q1 9:30
4TH & 8
OPP 46
+5
31.9%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the BC 41Similar
Q1 9:30
4TH & 3
OPP 41
+5
31.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 5 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
31.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Vincent Davis for 7 yds to the BC 29Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 3
OPP 29
0
31.2%
Vincent Davis run for no gain to the BC 29Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+4
31.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 4 yds to the BC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
31.2%
Kenny Pickett run for 1 yd to the BC 24Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+7
31.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 7 yds to the BC 17Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+14
31.4%
Vincent Davis run for 14 yds to the BC 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
31.2%
Vincent Davis run for 1 yd to the BC 2Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
31.2%
Kenny Pickett run for 1 yd to the BC 1Similar
Q1 3:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
31.3%
Kenny Pickett run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
32.1%
Pat Garwo III run for 6 yds to the BC 31Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
32.7%
Phil Jurkovec run for 3 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-5
32.4%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BC 29Similar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
31.8%
Phil Jurkovec pass incomplete to Hunter LongSimilar
Q1 3:15
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
31.4%
Grant Carlson punt for 62 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Pitt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:3867% → 66%
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
32.8%
Israel Abanikanda run for 1 yd to the Pitt 10Similar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 9
OWN 10
-5
32.7%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, illegal procedure (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 5Similar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 14
OWN 5
-2
32.9%
Pickett, K pass complete to Turner, D for 14 yards to the UP19, out-of-bounds, PENALTY UP holding (Morrissey, J) 2 yards to the UP3, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 16
OWN 3
+3
32.9%
Israel Abanikanda run for 3 yds to the Pitt 6Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 6
0
33.9%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 6
0
34.3%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 61 yds, downed at the BC 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 6TD
6 plays · 67 yds · 1:4233% → 39%
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
33.3%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 11 yds to the BC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
34.4%
Phil Jurkovec pass incomplete to David BaileySimilar
Q2 14:42
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
33.7%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:42
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+13
33.1%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 13 yds to the Pitt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
34.8%
David Bailey run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 44Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+44
39.4%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Zay Flowers for 44 yds for a TD (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7TD
9 plays · 58 yds · 2:1563% → 68%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
37.2%
Israel Abanikanda run for 9 yds to the BC 49Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+3
36.5%
Israel Abanikanda run for 3 yds to the BC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
36.6%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Israel AbanikandaSimilar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+2
36.7%
Kenny Pickett run for 2 yds to the BC 44Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+10
36.9%
Pickett, K pass incomplete to Mack, T (Jones,E), QB hurry by McDuffie,I, PENALTY BC pass interference (Jones,E) 10 yards to the BC34, 1ST DOWN UP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
36.1%
Pickett, K pass incomplete to Jacques-Louis, PENALTY BC pass interference (Muse,J) 15 yards to the BC19, 1ST DOWN UP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
35.9%
Jordan Addison run for 4 yds to the BC 15Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+15
31.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Israel Abanikanda for 15 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 8TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:4534% → 45%
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
34.3%
Pat Garwo III run for 2 yds to the BC 27Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
34.4%
Pat Garwo III run for 7 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q2 10:35
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
34.9%
Pat Garwo III run for 2 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
34.9%
Pat Garwo III run for 3 yds to the BC 39Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+14
35.8%
Jurkovec,P pass incomplete to Witter,S, PENALTY UP roughing passer (Morgan, J) 14 yards to the UP47, 1ST DOWN BC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
36.4%
David Bailey run for no gain to the Pitt 47Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+26
36.3%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to David Bailey for 26 yds to the Pitt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
37.2%
Pat Garwo III run for 1 yd to the Pitt 20Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 9
OPP 20
0
37.2%
Phil Jurkovec pass incomplete to Zay FlowersSimilar
Q2 10:35
3RD & 9
OPP 20
+12
36.2%
Phil Jurkovec run for 12 yds to the Pitt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
37.2%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Hunter Long for 6 yds to the Pitt 2Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
37.2%
Pat Garwo III run for no gain to the Pitt 2Similar
Q2 10:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
36.2%
Pat Garwo III run for no gain to the Pitt 2Similar
Q2 4:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
44.6%
Phil Jurkovec run for 2 yds for a TD (Aaron Boumerhi KICK) PITTSBURGH Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0057% → 56%
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
43.4%
Shocky Jacques-Louis run for 4 yds to the Pitt 30Similar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 6
OWN 30
0
42.9%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Shocky Jacques-Louis, broken up by Bryce SebastianSimilar
Q2 4:41
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+10
44.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 10 yds to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST down BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
41.9%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 10
OPP 0
+3
39.7%
Kenny Pickett run for 3 yds to the Pitt 43 PITTSBURGH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the Pitt 43Similar
Q2 4:41
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
42.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:41
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
44.0%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jaelen Gill at the BC 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 6 yds · 2:3845% → 45%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
44.5%
David Bailey run for 5 yds to the BC 17Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+1
44.5%
David Bailey run for 1 yd to the BC 18Similar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 4
OWN 18
+13
43.4%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Hunter Long for 13 yds to the BC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-17
45.0%
Phil Jurkovec sacked by Patrick Jones II for a loss of 17 yards to the BC 14Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 27
OWN 14
+13
44.3%
Pat Garwo III run for 13 yds to the BC 27Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 14
OWN 27
-9
45.7%
Phil Jurkovec sacked by Chase Pine and Patrick Jones II for a loss of 9 yards to the BC 18Similar
Q2 0:52
4TH & 23
OWN 18
+16
45.3%
Grant Carlson punt for 49 yds , DJ Turner returns for 16 yds to the Pitt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11MISSED FG
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:4054% → 51%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
46.0%
Kenny Pickett run for 11 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
44.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 4 yds to the BC 36Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 6
OPP 36
-15
44.7%
Pickett, K pass complete to Mack, T for 21 yards to the BC15 (Jones,E), PENALTY UP pass interference (Mack, T) 15 yards to the UP49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 21
OWN 49
0
47.5%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Taysir MackSimilar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 21
OWN 49
+14
48.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 14 yds to the BOSTCOLL 37 BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 7
OPP 37
+55
49.2%
Alex Kessman 55 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 12TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:3447% → 61%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
46.8%
Phil Jurkovec run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 23Similar
Q3 14:26
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+77
60.8%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Zay Flowers for 77 yds for a TD (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13MISSED FG
10 plays · 44 yds · 3:1441% → 35%
Q3 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
59.4%
Vincent Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 22Similar
Q3 14:26
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+10
59.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 10 yds to the Pitt 32Similar
Q3 14:26
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+15
59.3%
Pickett, K pass incomplete to Mack, T, PENALTY BC pass interference (Jones,E) 15 yards to the UP47, 1ST DOWN UP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
57.1%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jordan Addison, broken up by Bryce SebastianSimilar
Q3 14:26
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+21
57.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 21 yds to the BC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
55.3%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Taysir Mack, broken up by Bryce SebastianSimilar
Q3 14:26
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-1
55.4%
Vincent Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 33Similar
Q3 14:26
3RD & 11
OPP 33
+2
57.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Vincent Davis for 2 yds to the BC 31Similar
Q3 11:12
4TH & 9
OPP 31
+49
64.6%
Alex Kessman 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:0066% → 63%
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
65.6%
David Bailey run for 12 yds to the BC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
67.0%
David Bailey run for 3 yds to the BC 46Similar
Q3 11:12
2ND & 7
OWN 46
-5
67.1%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Zay Flowers for a loss of 5 yards to the BC 41Similar
Q3 11:12
3RD & 12
OWN 41
0
64.7%
Phil Jurkovec pass incomplete to Zay Flowers BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 11:12
4TH & 12
OWN 41
0
63.4%
Grant Carlson punt for 49 yds, fair catch by DJ Turner at the Pitt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0033% → 31%
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
67.3%
Vincent Davis run for 5 yds to the Pitt 15Similar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 5
OWN 15
0
67.3%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Taysir MackSimilar
Q3 9:06
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+10
68.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Daniel Moraga for no gain to the Pitt 15 for a 1ST down BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Defensive holding (Elijah Jones) to the Pitt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
67.0%
Israel Abanikanda run for a loss of 5 yards to the Pitt 20Similar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
67.6%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Israel Abanikanda, broken up by Bryce SebastianSimilar
Q3 9:06
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
68.8%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jordan AddisonSimilar
Q3 9:06
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+11
69.5%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 40 yds , Jaelen Gill returns for 11 yds to the Pitt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0072% → 68%
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
72.1%
David Bailey run for 1 yd to the Pitt 48Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
72.1%
Phil Jurkovec pass incomplete to Zay FlowersSimilar
Q3 7:22
3RD & 9
OPP 48
-8
70.7%
Phil Jurkovec run for a loss of 8 yards to the BC 44Similar
Q3 7:22
4TH & 17
OWN 44
0
67.9%
Grant Carlson punt for 37 yds, downed at the Pitt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 17TD
10 plays · 81 yds · 3:4130% → 49%
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+12
70.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to DJ Turner for 12 yds to the Pitt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
69.6%
Kenny Pickett run for 12 yds to the Pitt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
68.8%
Pickett, K pass complete to Addison, J for 6 yards to the UP49 (DeBerry,J), PENALTY UP ineligible downfield on pass (Moraga, D) 5 yards to the UP38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:59
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+15
69.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 15 yds to the BC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
67.1%
Kenny Pickett run for no gain to the BC 47Similar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+29
67.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 29 yds to the BC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
65.1%
Kenny Pickett run for no gain to the BC 18Similar
Q3 2:47
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+14
72.4%
Vincent Davis run for 14 yds to the BC 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
50.8%
Vincent Davis run for 4 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 2:1358% → 58%
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-2
58.2%
Pat Garwo III run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 22Similar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 12
OWN 22
0
57.5%
Phil Jurkovec pass incomplete to Hunter LongSimilar
Q3 2:13
3RD & 12
OWN 22
+17
56.0%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to CJ Lewis for 17 yds to the BC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
59.9%
Pat Garwo III run for 1 yd to the BC 40Similar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+13
59.8%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Hunter Long for 13 yds to the Pitt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
64.0%
Phil Jurkovec pass incomplete to CJ LewisSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-5
63.5%
Phil Jurkovec sacked by Patrick Jones II and SirVocea Dennis for a loss of 5 yards to the BC 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 48
0
59.1%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 48
0
58.3%
Grant Carlson punt for 51 yds, downed at the Pitt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 19INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
62.8%
Vincent Davis run for 3 yds to the Pitt 4Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 7
OWN 4
0
63.1%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to DJ Turner PITTSBURGH Penalty, illegal shift ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 7
OWN 4
0
64.5%
Kenny Pickett pass intercepted Josh DeBerry return for no gain to the Pitt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 20FUMBLE
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:4171% → 68%
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
70.5%
David Bailey run for 2 yds to the Pitt 13Similar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 8
OPP 13
0
70.5%
Phil Jurkovec pass incomplete to Hunter Long, broken up by Jason PinnockSimilar
Q4 12:51
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+5
67.6%
Phil Jurkovec sacked by Rashad Weaver for a loss of 7 yards to the Pitt 25 Phil Jurkovec fumbled, recovered by Pitt Rashad Weaver , return for 0 yards , return for 5 yds to the Pitt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0039% → 37%
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
61.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Paris Brown for 2 yds to the Pitt 27Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
60.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 8 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
59.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Vincent Davis for 8 yds to the Pitt 43Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 2
OWN 43
0
56.3%
Vincent Davis run for no gain to the Pitt 43Similar
Q4 12:43
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
56.8%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:43
4TH & 2
OWN 43
-5
60.2%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, false start (Carter Warren) to the Pitt 38Similar
Q4 12:43
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
62.7%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jaelen Gill at the BC 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · -4 yds · 0:0066% → 62%
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
65.7%
Pat Garwo III run for 1 yd to the BC 13Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+2
65.3%
Pat Garwo III run for 2 yds to the BC 15Similar
Q4 10:39
3RD & 7
OWN 15
+14
63.6%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Zay Flowers for 14 yds to the BC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
66.4%
Phil Jurkovec run for no gain to the BC 29Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-5
65.8%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to David Bailey for a loss of 5 yards to the BC 24Similar
Q4 10:39
3RD & 15
OWN 24
-16
63.6%
Phil Jurkovec sacked by Patrick Jones II for a loss of 16 yards to the BC 8Similar
Q4 10:39
4TH & 31
OWN 8
0
62.0%
Grant Carlson punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BC 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 23DOWNS
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0042% → 39%
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
58.0%
Vincent Davis run for 5 yds to the BC 40Similar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+2
57.0%
Shocky Jacques-Louis run for 2 yds to the BC 38Similar
Q4 6:29
3RD & 3
OPP 38
-2
57.6%
Vincent Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 40Similar
Q4 6:29
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
61.5%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Vincent Davis, broken up by Bryce SebastianSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0075% → 70%
Q4 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
74.8%
Pat Garwo III run for no gain to the BC 40Similar
Q4 4:54
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+1
73.5%
David Bailey run for 1 yd to the BC 41Similar
Q4 4:54
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
71.8%
Phil Jurkovec pass incomplete to Hunter LongSimilar
Q4 4:54
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
69.7%
Grant Carlson punt for 21 yds, downed at the Pitt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 25FG
11 plays · 21 yds · 2:4835% → 49%
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+19
64.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 19 yds to the BC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
60.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
60.8%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jordan AddisonSimilar
Q4 3:28
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+3
63.2%
Kenny Pickett run for 3 yds to the BC 40Similar
Q4 3:28
4TH & 7
OPP 40
+9
65.0%
Pickett, K pass incomplete to Mack, T, PENALTY BC pass interference 9 yards to the BC31, 1ST DOWN UP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
57.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 5 yds to the BC 26Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 5
OPP 26
0
56.7%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Taysir Mack, broken up by Tate HaynesSimilar
Q4 3:28
3RD & 5
OPP 26
-15
59.3%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Max Richardson for a loss of 15 yards to the BC 41Similar
Q4 0:40
4TH & 20
OPP 41
+58
50.7%
Alex Kessman 58 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 26MISSED FG
8 plays · 40 yds · 0:4056% → 64%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
55.6%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Hunter Long for 16 yds to the BC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
59.5%
Phil Jurkovec run for 5 yds to the BC 46Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+19
61.1%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Hunter Long for 19 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
65.8%
Phil Jurkovec pass incomplete to Jaelen GillSimilar
Q4 0:11
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
68.3%
Phil Jurkovec pass incomplete to Jaelen GillSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+52
64.2%
Aaron Boumerhi 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 27TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0065% → 85%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
64.7%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
64.5%
Phil Jurkovec pass incomplete to CJ LewisSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+25
85.0%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Zay Flowers for 25 yds for a TD (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 28TD
10 plays · 25 yds · 0:0020% → 34%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
80.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 8 yds to the BC 17Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 17
0
79.3%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Taysir Mack, broken up by Luc BequetteSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 17
-5
83.9%
Vincent Davis run for a loss of 5 yards to the BC 22Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+9
91.2%
Kenny Pickett run for 9 yds to the BC 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
80.4%
Todd Sibley Jr. run for 2 yds to the BC 11Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 11
0
80.4%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Taysir MackSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 11
+7
86.0%
Kenny Pickett run for 7 yds to the BC 4Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 4
+1
87.4%
Kenny Pickett run for 1 yd to the BC 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
79.3%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
65.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 3 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+34.2
FG · Q4 0:40
Alex Kessman 58 yd FG GOOD
-31.2
TD · Q3 2:18
Vincent Davis run for 4 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)
-21.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com