Try the model
VT

Virginia Tech 38 at Duke 31

DUKE
2020 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2020 · Wallace Wade Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadVT aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreVT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:26 · Porter Wilson punt for 48 yds, downed at the VTech 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 43Pregame prior−24.2Home team on offense+0.6Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:27: Deon Jackson run for 10 yds for a TD (Charlie Ham KICK) — DUKE win probability +18.7 pts (now 51%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:59: Braxton Burmeister run for 14 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK) — VT win probability +12.1 pts (now 83%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:41: Chase Brice pass complete to Noah Gray for 17 yds for a TD (Charlie Ham KICK) — DUKE win probability +23.1 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  4. TD · Q4 9:58: Khalil Herbert run for 23 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK) — VT win probability +18.1 pts (now 89%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:44: Deon Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD (Charlie Ham KICK) — DUKE win probability +25.3 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 9 of 12VT made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00DUKE 4th & 12 at DUKE 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:27VT 4th & 11 at VT 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:37DUKE 4th & 8 at DUKE 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 11:29VT 4th & 4 at DUKE 40, down 7
    Close callPunted · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    72.6%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.6%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:26DUKE 4th & 7 at VT 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.0%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:15VT 4th & 7 at VT 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00DUKE 4th & 4 at DUKE 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:56VT 4th & 18 at VT 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%−1.5
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 12:49DUKE 4th & 8 at DUKE 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 10:47VT 4th & 2 at DUKE 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    66.6%−0.5
    83% to make
    Punt
    63.5%−3.6
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:14VT 4th & 4 at DUKE 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.1%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    58.7%−5.9
    average punt
  12. Q2 3:14DUKE 4th & 3 at DUKE 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:09DUKE 4th & 10 at DUKE 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%−1.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:55DUKE 4th & 2 at DUKE 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−0.3
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:17VT 4th & 7 at DUKE 41, up 10
    Close callPunted · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    79.5%−1.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.1%−0.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:35DUKE 4th & 15 at DUKE 15, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%−3.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:20DUKE 4th & 3 at DUKE 32, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.9%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:00DUKE 4th & 8 at DUKE 43, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.7%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:09DUKE 4th & 10 at VT 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.2%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    6.0%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    5.0%−1.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 3VT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 4:26VT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 11:27DUKE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:17VT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:59VT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:41DUKE Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.2%−0.5
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:58VT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.1%−0.5
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:44DUKE Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.0%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.6%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:20VT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
22.2%
Deon Jackson run for no gain to the Duke 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
22.2%
Chase Brice pass complete to Deon Jackson for 4 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-6
22.2%
Chase Brice sacked by Emmanuel Belmar for a loss of 6 yards to the Duke 23Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
22.2%
Porter Wilson punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the VTech 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
22.9%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete to Tayvion Robinson, broken up by Leonard JohnsonSimilar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-1
22.9%
Khalil Herbert run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 35Similar
Q1 13:27
3RD & 11
OWN 35
0
23.0%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete to James Mitchell, broken up by Jeremiah LewisSimilar
Q1 13:27
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
23.0%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 47 yds , Jalon Calhoun returns for no gain to the Duke 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4924% → 25%
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-5
23.5%
DUKE Penalty, illegal procedure (Jalon Calhoun) to the Duke 13Similar
Q1 12:26
1ST & 15
OWN 13
0
23.4%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Jake Bobo, broken up by Dorian StrongSimilar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 15
OWN 13
+7
23.4%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 7 yds to the Duke 20Similar
Q1 12:26
3RD & 8
OWN 20
0
23.4%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q1 11:37
4TH & 8
OWN 20
0
24.6%
Porter Wilson punt for 63 yds , Tayvion Robinson returns for no gain for a TD Tayvion Robinson fumbled, recovered by Duke Jaylen Stinson for a TD (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
24.9%
Khalil Herbert run for 5 yds to the VTech 30Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+11
24.8%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to James Mitchell for 11 yds to the VTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
24.7%
Raheem Blackshear run for 13 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
24.6%
Raheem Blackshear run for no gain to the Duke 46Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+6
24.6%
Braxton Burmeister run for 6 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q1 11:29
3RD & 4
OPP 40
0
24.6%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete to James MitchellSimilar
Q1 11:29
4TH & 4
OPP 40
0
24.7%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5INT
4 plays · 26 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
27.7%
Mataeo Durant run for no gain to the Duke 20 Mataeo Durant fumbled, recovered by Duke Mataeo DurantSimilar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+13
27.6%
Chase Brice pass complete to Eli Pancol for 13 yds to the Duke 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
27.7%
Mataeo Durant run for 13 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-26
28.1%
Chase Brice pass intercepted DaShawn Crawford return for 16 yds to the DUKE 38 VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, illegal block (Amare Barno) to the VTech 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 6TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 2:4372% → 74%
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
28.2%
Khalil Herbert run for 3 yds to the VTech 43Similar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
28.7%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to James Mitchell for no gain to the VTech 43Similar
Q1 6:23
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+15
29.0%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete for a 1ST down DUKE Penalty, roughing passer (Rocky Shelton II) to the Duke 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
28.5%
Braxton Burmeister run for 1 yd to the Duke 41Similar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+29
28.5%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 29 yds to the Duke 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
26.4%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to James Mitchell for 12 yds for a TD DUKE Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
27.9%
Mataeo Durant run for 7 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
28.4%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q1 4:26
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
28.0%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
28.2%
Mataeo Durant run for 5 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+7
28.6%
Chase Brice pass complete to Noah Gray for 7 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
28.7%
Chase Brice run for 4 yds to the VTech 48Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+3
28.9%
Deon Jackson run for 3 yds to the VTech 45Similar
Q1 4:26
3RD & 3
OPP 45
-4
28.7%
Chase Brice sacked by Rayshard Ashby for a loss of 4 yards to the VTech 49Similar
Q1 4:26
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
27.9%
Porter Wilson punt for 48 yds, downed at the VTech 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+15
29.4%
Burmeister, B pass incomplete to Smith, K, PENALTY DU pass interference (Ellis, Z.) 15 yards to the VT16, 1ST DOWN VT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
29.0%
Braxton Burmeister run for 3 yds to the VTech 19Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 7
OWN 19
0
29.0%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete to Tayvion RobinsonSimilar
Q1 1:15
3RD & 7
OWN 19
0
29.4%
Braxton Burmeister pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:15
4TH & 7
OWN 19
0
29.8%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 39 yds, downed at the Duke 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0932% → 31%
Q1 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
31.6%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+7
31.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jarett Garner for 7 yds to the VTech 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 49
-3
32.0%
Deon Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 48Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 48
0
31.1%
Porter Wilson punt for 28 yds, downed at the VTech 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:0070% → 69%
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
30.2%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete to Tayvion Robinson, broken up by Michael Carter IISimilar
Q2 13:56
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-8
30.2%
Braxton Burmeister sacked by DeWayne Carter and Chris Rumph II for a loss of 8 yards to the VTech 16Similar
Q2 13:56
3RD & 18
OWN 16
0
30.8%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete to Raheem BlackshearSimilar
Q2 13:56
4TH & 18
OWN 16
0
31.2%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 51 yds, downed at the Duke 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
32.4%
Chase Brice pass complete to Damond Philyaw-Johnson for 11 yds to the Duke 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-15
33.5%
Brice, C. pass complete to Calhoun, J. for loss of 4 yards to the DU40 (Pollard, N;Reed, J), PENALTY DU illegal block (Marwede, J.) 15 yards to the DU29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 25
OWN 29
+18
32.1%
Chase Brice pass complete to Damond Philyaw-Johnson for 18 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 7
OWN 47
-1
33.6%
Chase Brice run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 46Similar
Q2 12:49
3RD & 8
OWN 46
0
32.5%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q2 12:49
4TH & 8
OWN 46
0
32.0%
Porter Wilson punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Raheem Blackshear at the VTech 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 12FG
17 plays · 76 yds · 7:3368% → 70%
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
32.0%
Tre Turner run for 5 yds to the VTech 25Similar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
31.6%
Raheem Blackshear run for no gain to the VTech 25Similar
Q2 10:47
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+12
32.4%
Braxton Burmeister run for 12 yds to the VTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
31.4%
Khalil Herbert run for 12 yds to the VTech 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
30.3%
Khalil Herbert run for 10 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
30.1%
Khalil Herbert run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 42Similar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+8
30.3%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tre Turner for 8 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q2 10:47
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+11
30.2%
Raheem Blackshear run for 11 yds to the Duke 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
29.6%
Braxton Burmeister run for 8 yds to the Duke 15Similar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 2
OPP 15
0
29.6%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete to James Mitchell, broken up by Michael Carter IISimilar
Q2 10:47
3RD & 2
OPP 15
0
30.2%
Khalil Herbert run for no gain to the Duke 15Similar
Q2 10:47
4TH & 2
OPP 15
+8
31.1%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Nick Gallo for 8 yds to the Duke 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
29.6%
Raheem Blackshear run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 9Similar
Q2 10:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
29.6%
Braxton Burmeister run for 5 yds to the Duke 4Similar
Q2 3:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
31.2%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete to James Mitchell, broken up by Marquis WatersSimilar
Q2 3:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
30.3%
Brian Johnson 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
31.1%
Chase Brice sacked by Amare Barno for a loss of 8 yards to the Duke 17 Chase Brice fumbled, recovered by Duke Casey Holman , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 3:14
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+15
30.8%
Mataeo Durant run for 15 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q2 3:14
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
30.8%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Damond Philyaw-Johnson, broken up by Josh FugaSimilar
Q2 3:14
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
30.2%
Porter Wilson punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the VTech 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 14INT
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:0071% → 72%
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
28.8%
Raheem Blackshear run for 1 yd to the VTech 42Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+2
29.1%
Braxton Burmeister run for 2 yds to the VTech 44Similar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+5
29.3%
Burmeister, B rush for no gain to the VT44 (Woods, J.), PENALTY DU offside (Dimukeje, V.) 5 yards to the VT49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+3
28.8%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tre Turner for 3 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
28.0%
Braxton Burmeister pass intercepted Jeremiah Lewis return for no gain to the Duke 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -7 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-7
33.9%
Chase Brice sacked by Emmanuel Belmar for a loss of 7 yards to the Duke 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
31.3%
Khalil Herbert run for 8 yds to the VTech 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
30.2%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete to Tre TurnerSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
30.9%
Burmeister, B pass incomplete to Robinson, T (Johnson, L.), PENALTY VT holding 0 yards to the VT33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+44
30.9%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the DUKE 18 VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, illegal shift (-5 Yards) to the Duke 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 2:3933% → 51%
Q3 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+22
32.9%
Chase Brice run for 22 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
35.5%
Deon Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 44Similar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 11
OWN 44
0
34.0%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Jalon Calhoun DUKE Penalty, Offensive pass interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 14:06
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+16
32.7%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jake Bobo for 16 yds to the VTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
36.4%
Deon Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 41Similar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 11
OPP 41
0
36.1%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Damond Philyaw-JohnsonSimilar
Q3 14:06
3RD & 11
OPP 41
-10
34.1%
Brice, C. pass complete to Calhoun, J. for 19 yards to the VT22 (Jenkins, K), PENALTY DU holding (Monk, J.) 10 yards to the DU49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:06
3RD & 21
OWN 49
+41
32.4%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jarett Garner for 41 yds to the VTech 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
51.1%
Deon Jackson run for 10 yds for a TD (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 18TD
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:5859% → 70%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
41.0%
Raheem Blackshear run for 3 yds to the Duke 13Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+4
41.0%
Raheem Blackshear run for 4 yds to the Duke 9Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+6
42.4%
Raheem Blackshear run for 6 yds to the Duke 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
41.0%
Raheem Blackshear run for 1 yd to the Duke 2Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
41.0%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete to James MitchellSimilar
Q3 9:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
29.9%
Braxton Burmeister run for 2 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:0035% → 33%
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
34.7%
Deon Jackson run for 3 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+5
34.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Eli Pancol for 5 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q3 9:09
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+5
35.6%
Chase Brice pass complete to Eli Pancol for 5 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
37.4%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Jarett GarnerSimilar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
35.7%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Noah GraySimilar
Q3 9:09
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
34.5%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Darrell Harding Jr.Similar
Q3 9:09
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
32.8%
Porter Wilson punt for 54 yds, downed at the VTech 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 20TD
5 plays · 94 yds · 2:3066% → 83%
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+11
33.8%
Braxton Burmeister run for 11 yds to the VTech 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+56
33.2%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 56 yds to the Duke 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
29.0%
Raheem Blackshear run for 2 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+11
29.0%
Khalil Herbert run for 11 yds to the Duke 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
16.9%
Braxton Burmeister run for 14 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
19.1%
Mataeo Durant run for 5 yds to the Duke 20Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 5
OWN 20
0
19.3%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q3 4:55
3RD & 5
OWN 20
-6
18.3%
Brice, C. pass complete to Calhoun, J. for 8 yards to the DU28 (Jenkins, K), PENALTY DU face mask (Calhoun, J.) 6 yards to the DU14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:55
3RD & 11
OWN 14
+9
18.2%
Mataeo Durant run for 9 yds to the Duke 23Similar
Q3 4:55
4TH & 2
OWN 23
+56
17.9%
Porter Wilson punt for 56 yds , Raheem Blackshear returns for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 39 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
19.4%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete to Tayvion Robinson, broken up by Jeremiah LewisSimilar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-6
19.6%
Braxton Burmeister sacked by Marquis Waters for a loss of 6 yards to the VTech 14Similar
Q3 3:17
3RD & 16
OWN 14
+42
20.4%
Khalil Herbert run for 42 yds to the Duke 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
17.3%
Khalil Herbert run for 2 yds to the Duke 42Similar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+1
17.3%
Khalil Herbert run for 1 yd to the Duke 41Similar
Q3 3:17
3RD & 7
OPP 41
0
17.6%
Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete to James MitchellSimilar
Q3 3:17
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
19.1%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Jake Bobo at the Duke 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23TD
5 plays · 86 yds · 1:2618% → 46%
Q3 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
18.0%
Durant, M. rush for 7 yards to the DU21 (Jenkins, K), PENALTY VT offside (Thompson, N) 5 yards to the DU19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 5
OWN 19
+36
18.6%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jarett Garner for 36 yds to the VTech 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+27
21.1%
Mataeo Durant run for 27 yds to the VTech 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
22.5%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the VTech 17Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+17
45.6%
Chase Brice pass complete to Noah Gray for 17 yds for a TD (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 24TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 3:4363% → 89%
Q4 13:41
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
-5
37.3%
DUKE Penalty, Defensive offside (-5 Yards)Similar
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+19
34.5%
Khalil Herbert run for 19 yds to the VTech 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
31.6%
Khalil Herbert run for 3 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+10
31.4%
Tayvion Robinson run for 10 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
31.4%
Raheem Blackshear run for 5 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+7
29.7%
Braxton Burmeister run for 7 yds to the Duke 26 for a 1ST down DUKE Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
29.7%
Raheem Blackshear run for 3 yds to the Duke 23Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+23
11.5%
Khalil Herbert run for 23 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 25TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1414% → 43%
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
13.6%
Deon Jackson run for 4 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+12
14.0%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jake Marwede for 12 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
15.0%
Chase Brice run for 3 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+39
15.1%
Deon Jackson run for 39 yds to the VTech 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
17.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Noah Gray for 4 yds to the VTech 13Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+4
17.9%
Deon Jackson run for 4 yds to the VTech 9Similar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 2
OPP 9
+6
16.7%
Deon Jackson run for 6 yds to the VTech 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
17.9%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the VTech 1Similar
Q4 6:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
43.3%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 26FUMBLE
5 plays · 31 yds · 0:0075% → 77%
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
25.1%
Khalil Herbert run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 47Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 12
OWN 47
+4
26.2%
Braxton Burmeister run for 4 yds to the Duke 49Similar
Q4 6:35
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+36
25.7%
Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tre Turner for 36 yds to the Duke 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-5
23.2%
Braxton Burmeister run for a loss of 5 yards to the Duke 20 Braxton Burmeister fumbled, recovered by Duke Victor DimukejeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0034% → 30%
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
33.9%
Deon Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 19Similar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
33.0%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Deon JacksonSimilar
Q4 4:35
3RD & 11
OWN 19
-4
31.2%
Chase Brice sacked by Norell Pollard for a loss of 4 yards to the Duke 15Similar
Q4 4:35
4TH & 15
OWN 15
0
29.7%
Porter Wilson punt for 58 yds, downed at the VTech 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 28TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 1:0777% → 94%
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
23.0%
Khalil Herbert run for 6 yds to the VTech 33Similar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+7
22.0%
Khalil Herbert run for 7 yds to the VTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
16.4%
Khalil Herbert run for no gain to the VTech 40Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+60
5.8%
Khalil Herbert run for 60 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 29Uncategorized
18 plays · 54 yds · 2:115% → 3%
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
4.8%
Chase Brice sacked by Emmanuel Belmar for a loss of 4 yards to the Duke 21Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+5
4.7%
Chase Brice pass complete to Noah Gray for 5 yds to the Duke 26Similar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+6
4.6%
Chase Brice pass complete to Noah Gray for 6 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q4 2:20
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+9
4.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Eli Pancol for 9 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
5.4%
Chase Brice sacked by Amare Barno for a loss of 10 yards to the Duke 31Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 20
OWN 31
+12
2.6%
Chase Brice pass complete to Noah Gray for 12 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 8
OWN 43
0
2.8%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Damond Philyaw-JohnsonSimilar
Q4 1:00
4TH & 8
OWN 43
+12
2.7%
Chase Brice pass complete to Malik Bowen-Sims for 12 yds to the VTech 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
3.4%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Noah GraySimilar
Q4 0:34
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+11
3.5%
Chase Brice pass complete to Malik Bowen-Sims for 11 yds to the VTech 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
4.4%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:34
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
4.4%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Nicky DalmolinSimilar
Q4 0:34
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
3.6%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Malik Bowen-SimsSimilar
Q4 0:09
4TH & 10
OPP 34
+13
3.2%
Chase Brice pass complete to Malik Bowen-Sims for 13 yds to the VTech 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:44
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD (Charlie Ham KICK)
+25.3
TD · Q4 13:41
Chase Brice pass complete to Noah Gray for 17 yds for a TD (Charlie Ham KICK)
+23.1
TD · Q3 11:27
Deon Jackson run for 10 yds for a TD (Charlie Ham KICK)
+18.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com