Try the model
UNC

North Carolina 26 at Boston College 22

BC
2020 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2020 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BC
modelBC aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playBC scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:08 · Grant Carlson punt for 51 yds , Dazz Newsome returns for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 113Pregame prior−21.5Home team on offense−5.2Garbage-time factor−2.9Score differential−2.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:35: Phil Jurkovec pass complete to David Bailey for 5 yds for a TD (Aaron Boumerhi KICK) — BC win probability +4.6 pts (now 22%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:09: Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for 41 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK) — UNC win probability +5.2 pts (now 85%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:00: Aaron Boumerhi 30 yd FG GOOD — BC win probability +5.0 pts (now 25%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:45: Phil Jurkovec pass complete to CJ Lewis for 6 yds for a TD Timeout BOSTON COLLEGE, clock 00:45 (Phil Jurkovec intercepted ) — BC win probability +26.2 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 0:45: Trey Morrison return for defensive PAT — UNC win probability +5.5 pts (now 66%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BC made the numbers' call on 7 of 8UNC made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 15:00BC 4th & 21 at BC 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:46BC 4th & 6 at UNC 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.6%
    79% to make
    Punt
    20.0%−1.6
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:34BC 4th & 5 at UNC 10, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.2%
    88% to make
    Punt
    17.9%−2.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:35UNC 4th & 12 at UNC 33, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.8%−1.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:23BC 4th & 7 at BC 29, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:08BC 4th & 5 at BC 26, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:25UNC 4th & 10 at BC 18, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.3%−1.9
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.2%
    79% to make
    Punt
    63.6%−9.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:25BC 4th & 7 at UNC 45, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    20.8%−1.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.4%
    average punt
  9. Q4 15:00UNC 4th & 7 at BC 45, up 8
    Close callPunted · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    81.1%−1.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:19BC 4th & 2 at BC 35, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.7%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:46UNC 4th & 12 at BC 31, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%−1.4
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.8%
    54% to make
    Punt
    87.9%−1.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:41BC 4th & 1 at UNC 39, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    10.5%−4.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    8.8%−5.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UNC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:35UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:21UNC Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:35BC Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:09UNC Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BCDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
11.8%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Hunter Long for 6 yds to the BC 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
11.8%
Phil Jurkovec pass incomplete to Hunter LongSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+9
11.8%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Hunter Long for 9 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
11.8%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Travis Levy for 16 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
11.8%
Phil Jurkovec pass incomplete to Zay FlowersSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-5
11.8%
Phil Jurkovec sacked by Tomari Fox for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 46 Phil Jurkovec fumbled, recovered by BC Phil Jurkovec , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 46
-9
11.8%
Phil Jurkovec sacked by Chazz Surratt for a loss of 9 yards to the BC 45Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 21
OWN 45
0
11.8%
Grant Carlson punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2TD
12 plays · 83 yds · 4:1387% → 87%
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
13.2%
Michael Carter run for 7 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+2
13.1%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q1 11:48
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+13
13.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 13 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
13.1%
Javonte Williams run for 1 yd to the NCaro 40Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+12
13.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 12 yds to the BC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
13.0%
Javonte Williams run for 12 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
13.0%
Sam Howell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-8
13.0%
Sam Howell sacked by Marcus Valdez for a loss of 8 yards to the BC 44Similar
Q1 11:48
3RD & 18
OPP 44
+20
13.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 20 yds to the BC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
12.9%
Michael Carter run for no gain to the BC 24Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
13.0%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Beau Corrales, broken up by Elijah JonesSimilar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+24
13.4%
Sam Howell pass complete to Khafre Brown for 24 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 3FG
11 plays · 57 yds · 3:4914% → 16%
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
13.8%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 12 yds to the BC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
13.9%
Phil Jurkovec pass incomplete to Zay FlowersSimilar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
13.8%
Pat Garwo III run for no gain to the BC 37Similar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+30
13.7%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to CJ Lewis for 30 yds to the NCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
14.4%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Travis Levy for 9 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+2
14.4%
David Bailey run for 2 yds to the NCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
14.4%
Phil Jurkovec pass incomplete to Zay FlowersSimilar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+4
14.4%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Travis Levy for 4 yds to the NCaro 18Similar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 6
OPP 18
0
14.2%
Phil Jurkovec pass incomplete to Hunter Long, broken up by Trey MorrisonSimilar
Q1 3:46
4TH & 6
OPP 18
+35
16.4%
Aaron Boumerhi 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4TD
7 plays · 58 yds · 2:2484% → 86%
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+28
15.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 28 yds to the BC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
15.4%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+2
15.4%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the BC 28Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+20
15.7%
Sam Howell run for 20 yds to the BC 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
15.4%
Michael Carter run for 7 yds to the BC 1Similar
Q1 1:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
13.9%
Javonte Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 5FG
11 plays · 65 yds · 3:4714% → 16%
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
14.2%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 10 yds to the BC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
14.3%
Zay Flowers run for 5 yds to the BC 40Similar
Q1 1:21
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+3
14.6%
David Bailey run for 3 yds to the BC 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+12
14.8%
David Bailey run for 12 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
15.2%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Zay Flowers for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+31
15.1%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Hunter Long for 31 yds to the NCaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
15.5%
Phil Jurkovec pass incomplete to Travis LevySimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+5
15.5%
David Bailey run for 5 yds to the NCaro 10Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 10
0
15.1%
Phil Jurkovec pass incomplete to Hunter LongSimilar
Q2 12:34
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+27
16.1%
Aaron Boumerhi 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
15.8%
Javonte Williams run for 3 yds to the NCaro 7Similar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 7
OWN 7
-5
15.8%
Sam Howell pass intercepted Bryce Sebastian return for 5 yds to the NCaro 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 7TD
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:1817% → 22%
Q2 11:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
17.4%
Phil Jurkovec pass incomplete to Zay FlowersSimilar
Q2 11:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
17.4%
Phil Jurkovec pass incomplete to CJ LewisSimilar
Q2 11:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
22.1%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to David Bailey for 5 yds for a TD (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 8 yds · 0:0080% → 79%
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
20.0%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
20.0%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Beau CorralesSimilar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+8
20.4%
Sam Howell run for 8 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
19.8%
Javonte Williams run for 4 yds to the NCaro 39Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-1
19.2%
Sam Howell run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 38Similar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
19.7%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q2 11:35
4TH & 7
OWN 38
-5
20.6%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 33Similar
Q2 11:35
4TH & 12
OWN 33
0
20.9%
Ben Kiernan punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BC 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
22.2%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Pat Garwo III for a loss of 5 yards to the BC 21Similar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 15
OWN 21
+6
21.9%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Zay Flowers for 6 yds to the BC 27Similar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 9
OWN 27
-5
21.4%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, false start (Zay Flowers) to the BC 22Similar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 14
OWN 22
+7
21.3%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Spencer Witter for 7 yds to the BC 29Similar
Q2 9:23
4TH & 7
OWN 29
0
21.1%
Grant Carlson punt for 52 yds, downed at the NCaro 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10TD
14 plays · 81 yds · 5:3978% → 85%
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
21.8%
Michael Carter run for 9 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 1
OWN 28
-5
21.1%
Howell, S pass complete to Brown, D for 6 yards to the NC34 (DeBerry,J), PENALTY NC holding (Montilus, E) 5 yards to the NC23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 6
OWN 23
0
21.7%
Michael Carter run for no gain to the NCaro 23Similar
Q2 6:48
3RD & 6
OWN 23
+7
22.4%
Sam Howell run for 7 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
21.6%
Javonte Williams run for 4 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+8
21.1%
Howell, S pass incomplete to Brown, K (Sebastian,B), PENALTY BC pass interference (Sebastian,B) 8 yards to the NC42, 1ST DOWN NC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
20.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for 15 yds to the BC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-15
20.3%
Javonte Williams run for 1 yd to the NCaro 42 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-16 Yards) to the NCaro 42Similar
Q2 6:48
1ST & 25
OWN 42
+23
21.4%
Michael Carter run for 23 yds to the BC 35Similar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 2
OPP 35
0
19.8%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q2 6:48
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+4
20.4%
Javonte Williams run for 4 yds to the BC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
19.9%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BC 36Similar
Q2 6:48
1ST & 15
OPP 36
-5
20.7%
Sam Howell sacked by Brandon Barlow for a loss of 5 yards to the BC 41Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 20
OPP 41
+41
15.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for 41 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 11FG
12 plays · 62 yds · 1:0917% → 25%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
17.0%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Zay Flowers for 15 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
18.0%
Phil Jurkovec pass incomplete to Hunter LongSimilar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+15
17.5%
Phil Jurkovec pass incomplete to Jaelen Gill for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, roughing passer (Tomari Fox) to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
19.1%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Pat Garwo III for 3 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+4
19.1%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Hunter Long for 4 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+11
19.0%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Hunter Long for 11 yds to the NCaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
20.1%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Pat Garwo III for 4 yds to the NCaro 23Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+10
20.1%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Pat Garwo III for 10 yds to the NCaro 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
19.6%
Phil Jurkovec pass incomplete to Hunter LongSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+30
24.6%
Aaron Boumerhi 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
20.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 15 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
19.3%
Michael Carter run for no gain to the NCaro 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+11
19.7%
Michael Carter run for 11 yds to the BC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+21
18.9%
Michael Carter run for 21 yds to the BC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
18.2%
Javonte Williams run for 7 yds to the BC 21Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 21
0
18.2%
Sam Howell run for no gain to the BC 21Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 21
-14
19.0%
Sam Howell sacked by Maximilian Roberts for a loss of 14 yards to the BC 49 Sam Howell fumbled, recovered by NCaro Javonte Williams , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 31
OPP 49
+41
21.5%
Ben Kiernan punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jaelen Gill at the BC 16 BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Offensive holding (Bryce Sebastian) to the BC 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-4
22.3%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, false start (Spencer Witter) to the BC 4Similar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 14
OWN 4
-1
22.3%
David Bailey run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 3Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 15
OWN 3
+10
22.2%
Jurkovec,P pass incomplete to Long,H, PENALTY NC holding (Fox, T) 10 yards to the BC13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+8
22.6%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Hunter Long for 8 yds to the BC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
22.7%
Pat Garwo III run for 5 yds to the BC 26Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 5
OWN 26
0
23.1%
Phil Jurkovec pass incomplete to David BaileySimilar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 5
OWN 26
0
22.1%
Phil Jurkovec pass incomplete to Hunter Long, broken up by Chazz SurrattSimilar
Q3 11:08
4TH & 5
OWN 26
+51
21.2%
Grant Carlson punt for 51 yds , Dazz Newsome returns for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14FG
9 plays · 60 yds · 2:3278% → 83%
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
22.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 13 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
21.7%
Javonte Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+15
21.5%
Howell, S pass intercepted by Palmer,M at the BC26, Palmer,M return to the BC26, PENALTY BC pass interference (McDuffie,I) 15 yards to the BC48, 1ST DOWN NC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
20.2%
Michael Carter run for no gain to the BC 48 for a 1ST down BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Isaiah McDuffie) to the BC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
19.5%
Michael Carter run for no gain to the BC 33 for a 1ST down BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, UR (Maximilian Roberts) to the BC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
19.2%
Sam Howell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
19.5%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami Brown, broken up by Max RichardsonSimilar
Q3 8:57
3RD & 10
OPP 18
0
20.6%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Rontavius GrovesSimilar
Q3 6:25
4TH & 10
OPP 18
+35
17.3%
Grayson Atkins 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 15PUNT
13 plays · 30 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
18.7%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Zay Flowers for 3 yds to the BC 28Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
18.9%
Phil Jurkovec pass incomplete to Zay FlowersSimilar
Q3 6:25
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+13
17.9%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Pat Garwo III for 13 yds to the BC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
20.5%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, false start (Christian Mahogany) to the BC 36Similar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+5
18.8%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Hunter Long for 5 yds to the BC 41Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+9
19.7%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to CJ Lewis for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:25
3RD & 1
50
+2
21.2%
Phil Jurkovec run for 2 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
21.6%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Jehlani Galloway for no gain to the NCaro 48Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-5
21.2%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, false start (Zay Flowers) to the BC 47Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 15
OWN 47
+3
19.5%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Zay Flowers for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:25
3RD & 12
50
+5
19.3%
Phil Jurkovec run for 5 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q3 6:25
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
18.7%
Grant Carlson punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Rontavius Groves at the NCaro 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 43 yds · 0:2083% → 84%
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
16.8%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the NCaro 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+14
17.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 14 yds to the NCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
16.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Michael Carter for 6 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+18
15.8%
Javonte Williams run for 18 yds to the BC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-8
14.4%
Sam Howell sacked by Isaiah McDuffie for a loss of 8 yards to the NCaro 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 44
0
15.9%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Khafre BrownSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 44
+11
16.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Khafre Brown for 11 yds to the BC 45Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
16.1%
Ben Kiernan punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jaelen Gill at the BC 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
16.2%
David Bailey run for 5 yds to the BC 15Similar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+2
16.3%
David Bailey run for 2 yds to the BC 17Similar
Q4 12:19
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+10
15.4%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Spencer Witter for 10 yds to the BC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
16.7%
Phil Jurkovec pass incomplete to Zay FlowersSimilar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
16.3%
Phil Jurkovec pass incomplete to Hunter LongSimilar
Q4 12:19
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+8
15.3%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Zay Flowers for 8 yds to the BC 35Similar
Q4 12:19
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
15.8%
Grant Carlson punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the NCaro 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18MISSED FG
10 plays · 47 yds · 3:3786% → 90%
Q4 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+35
13.8%
Michael Carter run for 35 yds to the BC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
11.6%
Sam Howell run for 8 yds to the BC 35Similar
Q4 9:23
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+6
11.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 6 yds to the BC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
11.0%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q4 9:23
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-10
11.2%
Howell, S pass incomplete to Corrales, B, PENALTY NC holding (Tucker, J) 10 yards to the BC39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:23
2ND & 20
OPP 39
-5
11.8%
Howell, S pass complete to Brown, D for 10 yards to the BC29 (Sebastian,B), PENALTY NC ineligible downfield on pass (Montilus, E) 5 yards to the BC44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:23
2ND & 25
OPP 44
+7
11.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 7 yds to the BC 37Similar
Q4 9:23
3RD & 18
OPP 37
+6
12.4%
Sam Howell run for 6 yds to the BC 31Similar
Q4 5:46
4TH & 12
OPP 31
+47
10.0%
Grayson Atkins 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 19TD
22 plays · 69 yds · 5:0113% → 34%
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
13.4%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Pat Garwo III for 5 yds to the BC 36Similar
Q4 5:46
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+6
14.5%
Phil Jurkovec run for 6 yds to the BC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
14.8%
Jurkovec,P pass intercepted by Chapman, D at the NC42, Chapman, D return to the NC42, PENALTY NC pass interference (Chapman, D) 10 yards to the NC48, 1ST DOWN BC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
16.1%
Phil Jurkovec run for 3 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q4 5:46
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+6
16.3%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Zay Flowers for 6 yds to the NCaro 39Similar
Q4 5:46
3RD & 1
OPP 39
-5
16.9%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, false start (Christian Mahogany) to the NCaro 44Similar
Q4 5:46
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+5
16.1%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Jehlani Galloway for 5 yds to the NCaro 39Similar
Q4 3:41
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+2
13.9%
Pat Garwo III run for 2 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
15.6%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Hunter Long for 6 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+21
17.8%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Zay Flowers for 21 yds to the NCaro 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-15
15.7%
Jurkovec,P pass complete to Lewis,C for 10 yards to the NC0, clock 02:39, PENALTY BC pass interference (Lewis,C) 15 yards to the NC25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 25
0
14.1%
Phil Jurkovec pass incomplete to Pat Garwo IIISimilar
Q4 2:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 25
+3
13.3%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 3 yds to the NCaro 22Similar
Q4 1:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 22
-10
9.2%
Jurkovec,P pass complete to Long,H for 22 yards to the NC0, clock 01:48, PENALTY BC holding (Bailey,D) 10 yards to the NC32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 32
+15
9.1%
Jurkovec,P pass incomplete to Lewis,C, PENALTY NC pass interference (Egbuna, O) 15 yards to the NC17, 1ST DOWN BC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-9
13.5%
Phil Jurkovec sacked by Tyrone Hopper for a loss of 9 yards to the NCaro 26Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 19
OPP 26
+4
10.7%
Phil Jurkovec run for 4 yds to the NCaro 22Similar
Q4 1:48
3RD & 15
OPP 22
+16
9.2%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Hunter Long for 16 yds to the NCaro 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
13.5%
Phil Jurkovec pass incomplete to Hunter Long, broken up by Jeremiah GemmelSimilar
Q4 0:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
39.8%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to CJ Lewis for 6 yds for a TD Timeout BOSTON COLLEGE, clock 00:45 (Phil Jurkovec intercepted )Similar
Q4 0:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
34.2%
Trey Morrison return for defensive PATSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20Uncategorized
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
4.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:45
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to CJ Lewis for 6 yds for a TD Timeout BOSTON COLLEGE, clock 00:45 (Phil Jurkovec intercepted )
+26.2
TD · Q4 0:45
Trey Morrison return for defensive PAT
-5.5
TD · Q2 1:09
Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for 41 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)
-5.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com