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LOU

Louisville 20 at Pittsburgh 23

PITT
2020 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2020 · Acrisure Stadium
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Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreLOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:11 · Logan Lupo punt for 55 yds, downed at the Pitt 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginScore differential
+21.5+10.80−10.8−21.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 83Home team on offense+1.5Pregame prior+3.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Blowout margin+0.5Score differential+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:18: Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 8 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK) — PITT win probability +8.6 pts (now 68%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:05: Javian Hawkins run for 75 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +8.0 pts (now 41%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:51: Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 21 yds for a TD Timeout LOUISVILLE, clock 06:51 (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +7.2 pts (now 52%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 3:11: Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 40 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK) — PITT win probability +10.1 pts (now 62%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 11:26: Alex Kessman 42 yd FG GOOD — PITT win probability +4.2 pts (now 67%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 9 of 9LOU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 13:02PITT 4th & 10 at LOU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.3%
    62% to make
    Punt
    58.0%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:02LOU 4th & 23 at LOU 12, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:10PITT 4th & 8 at LOU 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.3%
    70% to make
    Punt
    58.2%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:10LOU 4th & 12 at LOU 23, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−0.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00PITT 4th & 8 at LOU 48, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:39LOU 4th & 14 at PITT 20, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−1.8
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.7%
    75% to make
    Punt
    29.5%−5.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:11PITT 4th & 5 at LOU 40, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    51.9%−1.0
    34% to make
    Punt
    51.8%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:11LOU 4th & 13 at LOU 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−2.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:07PITT 4th & 11 at PITT 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:26PITT 4th & 16 at LOU 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%−2.6
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.1%
    68% to make
    Punt
    54.6%−7.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:26LOU 4th & 14 at LOU 33, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−3.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:15PITT 4th & 5 at PITT 30, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:01LOU 4th & 7 at LOU 29, down 6
    Numbers favored punt by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.4%−1.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    30.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:58LOU 4th & 10 at PITT 16, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%−2.3
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.0%
    81% to make
    Punt
    18.9%−12.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:25PITT 4th & 4 at LOU 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    69.2%−2.8
    51% to make
    Punt
    66.8%−5.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:02LOU 4th & 4 at LOU 38, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%−1.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:43PITT 4th & 14 at PITT 38, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.0%−5.5
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:26LOU 4th & 4 at LOU 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.8%−5.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2LOU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 2:18PITT Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:05LOU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:51LOU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:11PITT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PITTDrive 1FG
9 plays · 48 yds · 1:5855% → 56%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
55.4%
Vincent Davis run for 20 yds to the Pitt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
55.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for no gain to the Pitt 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+3
55.4%
Kenny Pickett run for 3 yds to the Pitt 48Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+25
55.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 25 yds to the Lvile 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
55.4%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
55.4%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
55.4%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Vincent DavisSimilar
Q1 13:02
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+45
55.8%
Alex Kessman 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · -13 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
55.8%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 37 yards to the UP38, out-of-bounds (Jason Pinnock), PENALTY UL pass interference (Dez Fitzpatrick) 12 yards to the UL13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 22
OWN 13
-3
55.9%
Javian Hawkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 11 Javian Hawkins fumbled, forced by Rashad Weaver, recovered by Lvile Javian HawkinsSimilar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 24
OWN 11
+3
55.9%
Malik Cunningham run for 3 yds to the Lvile 14Similar
Q1 13:02
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+5
55.9%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, offside defense (Patrick Jones II) to the Lvile 19Similar
Q1 13:02
3RD & 16
OWN 19
-7
55.9%
Malik Cunningham sacked by Patrick Jones II for a loss of 7 yards to the Lvile 12Similar
Q1 13:02
4TH & 23
OWN 12
+21
56.0%
Logan Lupo punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Lvile 25 , Jordan Addison returns for 21 yds to the Lvile 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1657% → 58%
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
56.9%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jordan AddisonSimilar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
56.9%
Vincent Davis run for no gain to the Lvile 25Similar
Q1 10:26
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+2
56.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 2 yds to the Lvile 23Similar
Q1 9:10
4TH & 8
OPP 23
+41
58.0%
Alex Kessman 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0043% → 42%
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
57.5%
Javian Hawkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 23Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
57.5%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for no gain to the Lvile 23Similar
Q1 9:10
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
57.8%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:10
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
57.9%
Logan Lupo punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jordan Addison at the Pitt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5TD
12 plays · 60 yds · 5:3259% → 68%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+17
58.8%
A.J. Davis run for 17 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
59.0%
A.J. Davis run for 2 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 8
OPP 41
-1
58.9%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Dorian Etheridge for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 42Similar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+13
58.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 13 yds to the Lvile 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
59.0%
A.J. Davis run for 2 yds to the Lvile 27Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+2
59.0%
A.J. Davis run for 2 yds to the Lvile 25Similar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+8
58.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to A.J. Davis for 8 yds to the Lvile 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
59.0%
DJ Turner run for 2 yds to the Lvile 15Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+8
59.0%
Israel Abanikanda run for 8 yds to the Lvile 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
59.0%
Israel Abanikanda run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 8Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
59.0%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Taysir Mack, broken up by Kei'Trel ClarkSimilar
Q1 2:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
67.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 8 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
59.3%
Javian Hawkins run for 75 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7PUNT
11 plays · 27 yds · 2:0560% → 60%
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
60.2%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 20Similar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+7
60.1%
Israel Abanikanda run for 7 yds to the Pitt 27Similar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
60.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 5 yds to the Pitt 32Similar
Q1 2:05
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+8
60.0%
Israel Abanikanda run for 8 yds to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-4
61.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Israel Abanikanda for a loss of 4 yards to the Pitt 36Similar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 14
OWN 36
+14
60.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
50
-12
62.1%
Vincent Davis run for a loss of 12 yards to the Pitt 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 22
OWN 38
-2
61.2%
Vincent Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 24
OWN 36
+16
60.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Vincent Davis for 16 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
60.4%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Rodjay Burns at the Lvile 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 8FG
12 plays · 68 yds · 5:2539% → 40%
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
60.6%
Malik Cunningham run for 4 yds to the Lvile 16Similar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+11
60.6%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Dez Fitzpatrick, PENALTY UP pass interference (Jason Pinnock) 11 yards to the UL27, 1ST DOWN UL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
60.3%
Hassan Hall run for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 22Similar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 15
OWN 22
+22
60.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 22 yds to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
59.2%
Hassan Hall run for 1 yd to the Lvile 45Similar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 9
OWN 45
0
59.4%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Hassan Hall, broken up by Damar HamlinSimilar
Q2 13:04
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+12
60.0%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 12 yds to the Pitt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+27
58.6%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Braden Smith for 27 yds to the Pitt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
57.7%
Javian Hawkins run for no gain to the Pitt 16Similar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 10
OPP 16
-2
57.7%
Malik Cunningham sacked by SirVocea Dennis and Patrick Jones II for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 18Similar
Q2 13:04
3RD & 12
OPP 18
-2
58.9%
Malik Cunningham sacked by David Green for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 20Similar
Q2 7:39
4TH & 14
OPP 20
+38
59.9%
James Turner 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9FUMBLE
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-8
59.1%
Kenny Pickett run for a loss of 8 yards to the Pitt 21 Kenny Pickett fumbled, forced by Yasir Abdullah, recovered by Lvile Jared GoldwireSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 10TD
2 plays · 21 yds · 0:3545% → 52%
Q2 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
54.9%
Javian Hawkins run for no gain to the Pitt 21Similar
Q2 6:51
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+21
47.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 21 yds for a TD Timeout LOUISVILLE, clock 06:51 (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:4051% → 62%
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
50.7%
Kenny Pickett run for 15 yds to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
52.8%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to DJ TurnerSimilar
Q2 6:51
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
51.6%
Vincent Davis run for no gain to the Pitt 40Similar
Q2 6:51
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+15
50.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 15 yds to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
53.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Vincent Davis for 4 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+4
52.3%
Vincent Davis run for 4 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q2 4:49
3RD & 2
OPP 37
-5
51.7%
Vincent Davis rush for 12 yards to the UL25 (Isaiah Hayes), PENALTY UP illegal motion (Daniel Moraga) 5 yards to the UL42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:49
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+2
51.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to DJ Turner for 2 yds to the Lvile 40Similar
Q2 3:11
4TH & 5
OPP 40
+40
61.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 40 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0041% → 38%
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.5%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Tutu AtwellSimilar
Q2 3:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
59.8%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
Q2 3:11
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-3
60.7%
Malik Cunningham sacked by Phil Campbell III and Rashad Weaver for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 22Similar
Q2 3:11
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
61.8%
Logan Lupo punt for 55 yds, downed at the Pitt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0061% → 59%
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
60.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 8 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+5
62.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Vincent Davis for 5 yds to the Pitt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
61.6%
Kenny Pickett run for 4 yds to the Pitt 40Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
63.0%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete, broken up by Marlon CharacterSimilar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 6
OWN 40
-5
61.0%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, false start (Jordan Addison) to the Pitt 35Similar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 11
OWN 35
0
59.4%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Taysir Mack, broken up by Jared GoldwireSimilar
Q2 2:07
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
58.7%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Rodjay Burns at the Lvile 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -8 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
60.0%
Javian Hawkins run for no gain to the Lvile 25Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-8
60.3%
Malik Cunningham sacked by Patrick Jones II for a loss of 8 yards to the Lvile 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15INT
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
60.3%
Javian Hawkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 22Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
-11
60.7%
Malik Cunningham pass intercepted Marquis Williams return for 11 yds to the Lvile 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 16FG
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:4765% → 67%
Q3 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
64.9%
Vincent Davis run for 4 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 6
OPP 45
0
65.0%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jared WayneSimilar
Q3 14:13
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+13
64.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Daniel Moraga for 13 yds to the Lvile 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+14
65.7%
Kenny Pickett run for 14 yds to the Lvile 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
65.7%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jordan AddisonSimilar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-8
65.7%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Yasir Abdullah for a loss of 8 yards to the Lvile 28 Kenny Pickett fumbled, recovered by Pitt Vincent Davis , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 14:13
3RD & 20
OPP 28
+4
62.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Vincent Davis for 4 yds to the Lvile 24Similar
Q3 11:26
4TH & 16
OPP 24
+42
67.1%
Alex Kessman 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:0034% → 32%
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
66.1%
Javian Hawkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 23Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+14
66.4%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 14 yds to the Lvile 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
65.0%
Javian Hawkins run for 2 yds to the Lvile 39Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 8
OWN 39
-3
64.4%
Malik Cunningham sacked by Patrick Jones II and Cam Bright for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 36Similar
Q3 11:26
3RD & 11
OWN 36
-3
67.0%
Malik Cunningham sacked by Rashad Weaver for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 33Similar
Q3 11:26
4TH & 14
OWN 33
0
68.0%
Logan Lupo punt for 42 yds, downed at the Pitt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0070% → 68%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.8%
Israel Abanikanda run for no gain to the Pitt 25Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
69.5%
Israel Abanikanda run for 5 yds to the Pitt 30Similar
Q3 8:15
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
69.0%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jared Wayne, broken up by Isaiah HayesSimilar
Q3 8:15
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+7
67.7%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 51 yds , Rodjay Burns returns for 7 yds to the Lvile 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19FG
14 plays · 58 yds · 4:4733% → 39%
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
67.4%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Tutu Atwell, broken up by Damar HamlinSimilar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+4
67.7%
Javian Hawkins run for 4 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q3 6:01
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+4
67.4%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Javian Hawkins for 4 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q3 6:01
4TH & 2
OWN 34
-5
67.2%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 29Similar
Q3 6:01
4TH & 7
OWN 29
+31
69.2%
Tabarius Peterson run for 31 yds to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
62.7%
Javian Hawkins run for 4 yds to the Pitt 36Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 6
OPP 36
0
62.0%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Tutu AtwellSimilar
Q3 6:01
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+5
63.2%
Malik Cunningham run for 5 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q3 6:01
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+15
63.8%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Tutu Atwell (A.J. Woods), PENALTY UP pass interference (A.J. Woods) 15 yards to the UP16, 1ST DOWN UL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
60.3%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
60.3%
Javian Hawkins run for no gain to the Pitt 16Similar
Q3 6:01
3RD & 10
OPP 16
0
63.1%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Tutu AtwellSimilar
Q3 1:58
4TH & 10
OPP 16
+34
61.0%
James Turner 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20INT
10 plays · 59 yds · 1:5863% → 68%
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
63.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 9 yds to the Pitt 29Similar
Q3 1:58
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+21
65.3%
Vincent Davis run for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
50
+4
67.6%
Vincent Davis run for 4 yds to the Lvile 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+1
68.3%
Vincent Davis run for 1 yd to the Lvile 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+7
67.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to DJ Turner for 7 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+14
68.6%
Vincent Davis run for 14 yds to the Lvile 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
69.5%
Kenny Pickett run for 6 yds to the Lvile 18Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 18
-3
69.5%
Vincent Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 21Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 21
-40
67.9%
Kenny Pickett pass intercepted C.J. Avery return for 40 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21INT
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0039% → 41%
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
61.2%
Hassan Hall run for 8 yds to the Pitt 47Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 2
OPP 47
0
58.8%
Malik Cunningham pass intercepted Damar Hamlin return for no gain to the Pitt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 22DOWNS
9 plays · 36 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
70.5%
Israel Abanikanda run for 2 yds to the Pitt 34Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
70.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Taysir Mack, broken up by Kei'Trel ClarkSimilar
Q4 10:25
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+16
68.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
50
+5
73.9%
Israel Abanikanda run for 5 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+7
74.2%
Israel Abanikanda run for 7 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-4
74.3%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Dorian Etheridge for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 42 Kenny Pickett fumbled, recovered by Pitt Kenny Pickett , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 14
OPP 42
+4
72.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Tre Tipton for 4 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
Q4 10:25
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+6
72.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 6 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q4 10:25
4TH & 4
OPP 32
0
71.0%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to DJ TurnerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0036% → 34%
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
64.3%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (Robbie Bell) to the Lvile 27Similar
Q4 6:02
1ST & 15
OWN 27
+2
66.1%
Javian Hawkins run for 2 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 13
OWN 29
+6
66.7%
Malik Cunningham run for 6 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
Q4 6:02
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+3
65.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to N/A for 3 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
Q4 6:02
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
66.2%
Logan Lupo punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jordan Addison at the Pitt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:3376% → 82%
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+18
75.7%
DJ Turner run for 18 yds to the Pitt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-3
78.8%
Vincent Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 39Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 13
OWN 39
-1
76.9%
Vincent Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 38Similar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 14
OWN 38
0
83.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jordan AddisonSimilar
Q4 2:43
4TH & 14
OWN 38
0
82.2%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Rodjay Burns at the Lvile 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 25INT
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:0127% → 20%
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
73.5%
Malik Cunningham run for 11 yds to the Lvile 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
72.0%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Tutu AtwellSimilar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+4
73.9%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 4 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q4 2:27
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+2
73.2%
Malik Cunningham run for 2 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q4 1:26
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
80.1%
Malik Cunningham pass intercepted Jason Pinnock return for no gain to the Lvile 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
91.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 40Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 11
OPP 40
-2
91.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:11
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 40 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)
+10.1
TD · Q1 2:18
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 8 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)
+8.6
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+8.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com