2020 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2020 · JMA Wireless Dome
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Win probability · SYR
modelSYR aheadGT aheadconfidence bandkey playSYR scoreGT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 15:00 · Pressley Harvin III punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Nykeim Johnson at the Syrac 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 1:22: Sean Tucker run for 4 yds for a TD (Andre Szmyt KICK) — SYR win probability +14.8 pts (now 46%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:57: Tommy DeVito pass complete to Taj Harris for 46 yds for a TD (Andre Szmyt PAT BLOCKED) — SYR win probability +12.9 pts (now 61%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:29: Jamious Griffin run for 3 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK) — GT win probability +24.4 pts (now 52%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q3 0:40: Tommy DeVito pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 43 yds for a TD (Andre Szmyt KICK) GEORGIA TECH Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declined — SYR win probability +21.6 pts (now 80%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:10: Jeff Sims pass intercepted for a TD Ja'Had Carter return for 23 yds for a TD (Andre Szmyt KICK) — SYR win probability +10.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SYR made the numbers' call on 9 of 10GT made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
- Q1 15:00SYR 4th & 6 at SYR 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 32.3% before the snapGo for it32.3%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.3%average punt
- Q1 12:53GT 4th & 8 at GT 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 66.6% before the snapGo for it66.6%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.7%average punt
- Q1 7:33SYR 4th & 10 at GT 29, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.2% before the snapGo for it38.0%−0.229% to convertField goalTheir call38.1%58% to makePunt37.1%−1.0average punt
- Q1 1:22GT 4th & 11 at GT 20, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.0% before the snapGo for it46.8%−1.825% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call48.6%average punt
- Q2 15:00SYR 4th & 10 at SYR 17, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.2% before the snapGo for it53.2%−1.428% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.7%average punt
- Q2 13:08GT 4th & 13 at GT 32, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.0% before the snapGo for it40.1%−3.920% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.0%average punt
- Q2 9:37GT 4th & 8 at SYR 24, down 17Close callWent for it · 38.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call37.4%−0.933% to convertField goal38.2%68% to makePunt28.4%−9.8average punt
- Q2 5:10SYR 4th & 6 at SYR 44, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.7% before the snapGo for it54.5%−0.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.7%average punt
- Q2 1:22GT 4th & 10 at GT 32, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.3% before the snapGo for it36.8%−1.729% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.4%average punt
- Q3 9:40SYR 4th & 10 at GT 35, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.9% before the snapGo for it67.7%−0.230% to convertField goalTheir call67.9%45% to makePunt66.8%−1.1average punt
- Q3 3:53GT 4th & 5 at SYR 9, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.3% before the snapGo for it26.1%−0.536% to convertField goalTheir call26.6%89% to makePunt15.1%−11.4average punt
- Q3 3:53SYR 4th & 10 at SYR 20, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.0% before the snapGo for it71.4%−2.027% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.4%average punt
- Q4 15:00GT 4th & 8 at GT 37, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snapGo for it18.4%−1.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.6%average punt
- Q4 14:16SYR 4th & 2 at SYR 29, up 10Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 78.5% before the snapGo for it79.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call78.7%−1.2average punt
- Q4 12:34GT 4th & 4 at GT 37, down 10Close callPunted · 18.3% before the snapGo for it18.6%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.3%−0.3average punt
- Q4 11:07SYR 4th & 5 at SYR 15, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.5% before the snapGo for it80.3%−0.840% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.2%average punt
- Q4 8:10GT 4th & 11 at GT 17, down 17Close callWent for it · 4.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.2%−0.725% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt3.9%average punt
- Q4 6:46SYR 4th & 1 at GT 1, up 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.2%59% to convertField goal95.2%−1.094% to makePunt92.7%−3.5average punt
- Q4 5:42GT 4th & 8 at GT 3, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snapGo for it2.3%−0.529% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.8%average punt
- Q4 3:58SYR 4th & 1 at GT 20, up 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.8%71% to convertField goal97.3%−0.575% to makePunt95.8%−2.0average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SYR made the numbers' call on 5 of 5GT made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q1 8:54SYR Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call36.8%97% to makeGo for two36.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:22SYR Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call48.4%97% to makeGo for two48.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:37GT Touchdown, down 11 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick47.4%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call47.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:57SYR Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call66.4%97% to makeGo for two66.2%−0.245% to convert
- Q2 5:10GT Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call42.4%97% to makeGo for two42.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:29GT Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call39.7%97% to makeGo for two39.5%−0.345% to convert
- Q3 0:40SYR Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.3%97% to makeGo for two80.1%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 8:10SYR Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.3%97% to makeGo for two95.0%−0.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSYRDrive 1PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
24.0%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Aaron Hackett for 10 yds to the Syrac 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 41
-1
24.0%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Jawhar Jordan for a loss of 1 yard to the Syrac 40Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 40
+17
24.0%
Nolan Cooney punt for 50 yds , Marquez Ezzard returns for 17 yds to the GTech 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
SYRDrive 3TD6 plays · 69 yds · 2:2126% → 29%
Q1 11:15
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+18
25.8%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Jawhar Jordan for 18 yds to the SYRACUSE 46 for a 1ST down GEORGIA TECH Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 4INT3 plays · 6 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
SYRDrive 5FG4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5230% → 30%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 6INT12 plays · 64 yds · 0:0070% → 71%
SYRDrive 7TD7 plays · 37 yds · 6:1131% → 46%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 8PUNT6 plays · -1 yds · 0:0057% → 56%
Q1 1:22
4TH & 11
OWN 20
0
43.9%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 63 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Syrac 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0048% → 46%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
47.5%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Taj Harris for 6 yds to the Syrac 23Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 24
-7
46.9%
Tommy DeVito sacked by Jordan Domineck for a loss of 7 yards to the Syrac 17Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 17
+4
46.2%
Nolan Cooney punt for 52 yds , Marquez Ezzard returns for 4 yds to the GTech 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 10PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0051% → 50%
Q2 13:08
4TH & 13
OWN 32
0
50.5%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Nykeim Johnson at the Syrac 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 11INT3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q2 12:32
2ND & 12
OWN 22
-5
52.7%
Tommy DeVito pass intercepted Zamari Walton return for 5 yds to the GTech 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 12TD7 plays · 63 yds · 2:0349% → 55%
SYRDrive 13TD3 plays · 47 yds · 0:4048% → 61%
GTDrive 14TD11 plays · 75 yds · 3:4743% → 53%
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
54.0%
SYRACUSE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (15 Yards) to the Syrac 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 15PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0052% → 50%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
51.5%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Taj Harris for 12 yds to the Syrac 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
52.7%
Sean Tucker run for 5 yds to the Syrac 45 SYRACUSE Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Syrac 30Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 20
OWN 30
0
51.0%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Sean Tucker for no gain to the Syrac 30Similar
Q2 5:10
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
50.4%
Nolan Cooney punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Marquez Ezzard at the GTech 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 16PUNT11 plays · 24 yds · 1:5545% → 43%
Q2 1:22
4TH & 10
OWN 32
0
56.8%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 64 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Syrac 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 17END OF HALF7 plays · 19 yds · 0:1054% → 59%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 18INT9 plays · 33 yds · 0:0044% → 46%
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 42
0
54.2%
Jeff Sims pass intercepted Robert Hanna return for no gain to the Syrac 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 19MISSED FG8 plays · 45 yds · 2:0562% → 63%
GTDrive 20MISSED FG16 plays · 56 yds · 5:4738% → 28%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
62.3%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Marquez Ezzard for no gain to the GTech 35Similar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
60.0%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Marquez Ezzard for 10 yds to the Syrac 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 25
OWN 48
-10
61.8%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the GTech 38Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 33
OWN 40
+29
63.2%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Malachi Carter for 29 yds to the Syrac 31Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+10
57.9%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Malachi Carter for 10 yds to the Syrac 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+26
71.6%
Gavin Stewart 26 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Tyrell Richards TEAM return for no gain to the Syrac 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0073% → 71%
GTDrive 22TD5 plays · 67 yds · 1:5827% → 52%
SYRDrive 23TD4 plays · 65 yds · 0:4956% → 80%
Q3 1:29
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+15
58.5%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Anthony Queeley for 15 yds to the GTech 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
80.2%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 43 yds for a TD (Andre Szmyt KICK) GEORGIA TECH Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 24PUNT6 plays · 12 yds · 0:4023% → 19%
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
77.3%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for 10 yds to the GTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+2
80.8%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 2 yds to the GTech 37Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
81.2%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Nykeim Johnson at the Syrac 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 25PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0079% → 77%
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
79.0%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 5 yds to the Syrac 26Similar
Q4 14:16
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+3
78.1%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 3 yds to the Syrac 29Similar
Q4 14:16
4TH & 2
OWN 29
0
77.4%
Nolan Cooney punt for 40 yds , Marquez Ezzard returns for no gain to the GTech 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 26PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0020% → 18%
Q4 12:34
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
81.8%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Nykeim Johnson at the Syrac 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 27PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0083% → 81%
Q4 11:07
3RD & 5
OWN 0
0
82.1%
PENALTY SU holding off-setting, PENALTY GT personal foul off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:07
3RD & 5
OWN 15
0
81.9%
Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Taj Harris, broken up by Zamari WaltonSimilar
Q4 11:07
4TH & 5
OWN 15
+18
81.0%
Nolan Cooney punt for 55 yds , Marquez Ezzard returns for 18 yds to the GTech 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 28INT TD5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0515% → 5%
GTDrive 29FUMBLE6 plays · -9 yds · 0:005% → 4%
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
95.5%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Jalen Camp for no gain to the GTech 18Similar
Q4 8:10
4TH & 11
OWN 17
-8
95.7%
Jordan Yates sacked by Cody Roscoe for a loss of 8 yards to the GTech 9 Jordan Yates fumbled, recovered by Syrac Steve Linton , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 30DOWNS4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 31PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 5:42
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+4
96.8%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Malachi Carter for 4 yds to the GTech 7Similar
Q4 5:42
3RD & 4
OWN 7
-4
96.9%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass (-4 Yards) to the GTech 3Similar
Q4 5:42
4TH & 8
OWN 3
+13
96.9%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 39 yds , Nykeim Johnson returns for 13 yds to the GTech 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 32Uncategorized6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 3:58
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+6
98.3%
Steve Linton run for a loss of 7 yards to the GTech 18 Steve Linton fumbled, recovered by Syrac Markenzy Pierre , return for 6 yds to the GTech 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:29
Jamious Griffin run for 3 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK)
-24.4
TD · Q3 0:40
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 43 yds for a TD (Andre Szmyt KICK) GEORGIA TECH Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declined
+21.6
TD · Q1 1:22
Sean Tucker run for 4 yds for a TD (Andre Szmyt KICK)
+14.8