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FSU

Florida State 10 at Miami 52

MIA
2020 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2020 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadFSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreFSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:38 · Donald Chaney Jr. run for 16 yds to the FlaSt 13 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 149Home team on offense+33.6Pregame prior+9.1Score differential+27.1Blowout margin+11.3Garbage-time factor+12.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.9
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 5:12: Ryan Fitzgerald 26 yd FG GOOD — FSU win probability +1.3 pts (now 22%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q1 0:19: Cam'Ron Harris run for 3 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +4.0 pts (now 82%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 12:36: Cam'Ron Harris run for 12 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +4.5 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 10:17: D'Eriq King pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 40 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +1.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 3:37: Donald Chaney Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +2.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5FSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 11:20MIA 4th & 3 at FSU 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    78.5%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    78.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:12FSU 4th & 7 at MIA 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    19.8%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:30MIA 4th & 1 at FSU 8, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    76.2%−0.8
    90% to make
    Punt
    74.0%−3.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:35FSU 4th & 14 at FSU 21, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:29FSU 4th & 3 at FSU 32, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:26FSU 4th & 20 at FSU 32, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−1.8
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:35MIA 4th & 1 at FSU 33, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    98.8%−0.4
    49% to make
    Punt
    98.7%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 1:38MIA 4th & 1 at FSU 29, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.5%−0.2
    58% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:01MIA 4th & 4 at FSU 49, up 35
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:03FSU 4th & 12 at FSU 21, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:33FSU 4th & 2 at MIA 2, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7FSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:53MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:19MIA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:36MIA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:17MIA Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:37MIA Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:57FSU Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:57MIA Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:30MIA Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIADrive 1TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:5280% → 81%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
80.3%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 4 yds to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
80.2%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
80.0%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
80.1%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Mark PopeSimilar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+1
80.0%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Cam'Ron Harris for 1 yd to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+19
79.9%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mark Pope for 19 yds to the FlaSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
80.0%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Brevin JordanSimilar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-3
79.9%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Cam'Ron Harris for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 13
OPP 46
+10
79.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for 10 yds to the FlaSt 36Similar
Q1 11:20
4TH & 3
OPP 36
+6
79.5%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mike Harley for 6 yds to the FlaSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
79.7%
Jaylan Knighton run for no gain to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+6
79.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mike Harley for 6 yds to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q1 9:53
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+24
80.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 24 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2FG
16 plays · 68 yds · 4:2320% → 22%
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
80.1%
Jordan Travis run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
80.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 4 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q1 8:55
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
80.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Jordan Travis for 5 yds to the FlaSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
79.9%
Ontaria Wilson run for 11 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
79.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Jashaun Corbin for 5 yds to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+12
79.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Jashaun Corbin for 12 yds to the MiaFl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
79.4%
James Blackman run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q1 7:06
2ND & 6
OPP 30
0
79.3%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:55
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+8
79.6%
Jordan Travis run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+12
79.2%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 12 yds to the MiaFl 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
79.1%
Jordan Travis run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 1Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
79.1%
Jordan Travis run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 2 Jordan Travis fumbled, forced by Bubba Bolden, recovered by FlaSt Jordan TravisSimilar
Q1 5:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
79.4%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Keyshawn HeltonSimilar
Q1 5:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
79.6%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 7Similar
Q1 5:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+26
78.4%
Ryan Fitzgerald 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3TD
18 plays · 79 yds · 4:4279% → 82%
Q1 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
78.5%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for 7 yds to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 3
OWN 28
-1
78.7%
D'Eriq King run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q1 4:05
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+9
78.1%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mike Harley for 9 yds to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
78.5%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Mark PopeSimilar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+11
78.3%
D'Eriq King run for 11 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
78.8%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 5
OPP 48
0
79.0%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Dee WigginsSimilar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+6
78.7%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Michael Redding III for 6 yds to the FlaSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
78.7%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Michael Redding IIISimilar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+25
78.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Will Mallory for 10 yds to the FlaSt 32 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the FlaSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
78.8%
King, D'Eriq pass incomplete to Harley, Mike, PENALTY MIAMI ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the FLORIDAST22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:54
1ST & 15
OPP 22
-5
78.7%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q1 1:40
1ST & 20
OPP 27
+15
78.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Donald Chaney Jr. for 15 yds to the FlaSt 12Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+2
78.8%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 10Similar
Q1 1:00
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+2
78.3%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 2 yds to the FlaSt 8Similar
Q1 0:30
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+5
77.7%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
81.7%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 3 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · -4 yds · 1:4419% → 18%
Q1 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
80.9%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-4
81.0%
Tamorrion Terry run for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 16Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 19
OWN 16
-5
81.1%
Jashaun Corbin run for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaSt 11Similar
Q2 14:23
3RD & 24
OWN 11
-5
81.5%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 6Similar
Q2 13:55
3RD & 29
OWN 6
+15
81.9%
Jashaun Corbin run for 15 yds to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q2 13:35
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
82.0%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Mark Pope at the MiaFl 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5TD
4 plays · 57 yds · 0:5483% → 87%
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
82.6%
King, D'Eriq pass incomplete to Harley, Mike, PENALTY FLORIDAST pass interference 8 yards to the FLORIDAST49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMI.Similar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
82.7%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 2 yds to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+35
82.7%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mark Pope for 22 yds to the FlaSt 25 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Jaleel McRae) to the FlaSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
87.2%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 12 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6FUMBLE
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:4513% → 13%
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
86.7%
James Blackman pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 2 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
86.8%
James Blackman run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q2 11:39
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
86.7%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Warren ThompsonSimilar
Q2 11:29
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
86.9%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 29 yds , Mark Pope returns for no gain to the MiaFl 39 Mark Pope fumbled, recovered by FlaSt Asante Samuel Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 7INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-15
86.7%
Jordan Travis pass intercepted Jaelan Phillips return for no gain to the MiaFl 39 MIAMI FL Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the MiaFl 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8TD
3 plays · 52 yds · 0:4888% → 90%
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
87.9%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 5 yds to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+7
88.0%
Jaylan Knighton run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+40
89.5%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 40 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:2914% → 14%
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+17
86.3%
Jashaun Corbin run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 27 for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the FlaSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
86.0%
Jashaun Corbin run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q2 9:12
2ND & 11
OWN 41
0
85.8%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Camren McDonaldSimilar
Q2 8:43
3RD & 11
OWN 41
-9
87.7%
James Blackman sacked by Zach McCloud for a loss of 9 yards to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q2 8:26
4TH & 20
OWN 32
+2
86.5%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 40 yds , Mark Pope returns for 2 yds to the MiaFl 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10TD
14 plays · 70 yds · 4:3592% → 98%
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
91.9%
D'Eriq King run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+3
91.9%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q2 7:13
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+6
91.9%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
92.8%
D'Eriq King run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+16
92.5%
Jaylan Knighton run for 16 yds to the FlaSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
94.3%
Jaylan Knighton run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 6
OPP 27
-10
94.4%
Knighton, Jaylan rush for 11 yards to the FLORIDAST16, PENALTY MIAMI holding 10 yards to the FLORIDAST37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 16
OPP 37
+6
94.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 6 yds to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+15
95.2%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Cam'Ron Harris for 15 yds Cam'Ron Harris fumbled, recovered by MiaFl for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
95.4%
D'Eriq King run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 14Similar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 8
OPP 14
0
95.5%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Mike HarleySimilar
Q2 3:41
3RD & 8
OPP 14
+12
95.4%
King, D'Eriq pass incomplete to Harley, Mike, PENALTY FLORIDAST pass interference 12 yards to the FLORIDAST2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMI.Similar
Q2 3:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.9%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 11DOWNS
10 plays · 27 yds · 2:372% → 1%
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
98.3%
Jordan Travis run for 15 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-7
98.3%
Jordan Travis sacked by Quincy Roche for a loss of 7 yards to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 17
OWN 33
+24
98.5%
Jordan Travis run for 24 yds to the MiaFl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-14
98.6%
James Blackman sacked by Nesta Jade Silvera for a loss of 14 yards to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 24
OWN 43
+24
98.7%
Jashaun Corbin run for 24 yds to the MiaFl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
98.5%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-10
98.5%
James Blackman sacked by Jared Harrison-Hunte for a loss of 10 yards to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 20
OPP 43
0
98.8%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Ontaria WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12END OF HALF
10 plays · 38 yds · 0:3699% → 99%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
98.5%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mike Harley for 11 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-5
98.5%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
98.5%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Mike HarleySimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+5
98.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mike Harley for 5 yds to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+15
98.6%
Cam'Ron Harris run for no gain to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the FlaSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
98.7%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
98.7%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Mike HarleySimilar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+12
98.7%
D'Eriq King run for 12 yds to the FlaSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+30
98.9%
Jose Borregales 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 13TD
13 plays · 79 yds · 3:381% → 1%
Q3 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+14
98.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Camren McDonald for 14 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
98.8%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+2
98.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Camren McDonald for 12 yds to the FlaSt 47 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+11
98.9%
James Blackman pass complete to Camren McDonald for 11 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
98.9%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Keyshawn HeltonSimilar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-2
99.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Jashaun Corbin for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 12
OWN 46
+14
99.1%
James Blackman run for 14 yds to the MiaFl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
99.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 7 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q3 12:06
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+2
99.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 2 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+11
99.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 11 yds to the MiaFl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
99.0%
Jashaun Corbin run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 12Similar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+12
98.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Camren McDonald for 12 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14FUMBLE
9 plays · 41 yds · 1:5599% → 99%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
99.2%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mark Pope for 9 yds to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q3 10:12
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+7
99.1%
D'Eriq King run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
99.3%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mark Pope for 6 yds to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+9
99.4%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mike Harley for 9 yds to the FlaSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
99.4%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Mike HarleySimilar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+7
99.4%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Cam'Ron Harris for 7 yds to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+2
99.3%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q3 8:35
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+1
99.3%
Jaylan Knighton run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 32 Jaylan Knighton fumbled, forced by Cory Durden, recovered by FlaStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15INT
10 plays · 57 yds · 2:511% → 0%
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
99.3%
Blackman, James pass incomplete to Thompson, Warren, PENALTY MIAMI personal foul (Hall Jr., Gurvan) 15 yards to the FLORIDAST47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST.Similar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
99.3%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Ontaria WilsonSimilar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+21
99.3%
Lawrance Toafili run for 21 yds to the MiaFl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
99.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 3 yds to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+23
99.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 23 yds to the MiaFl 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
99.3%
Lawrance Toafili run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 5Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
99.3%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 10Similar
Q3 6:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
99.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Camren McDonald for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 11Similar
Q3 5:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
99.6%
James Blackman pass intercepted, touchback. Al Blades Jr. return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 5:34100% → 100%
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.7%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Mike HarleySimilar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+20
99.7%
D'Eriq King run for 20 yds to the MiaFl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.7%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Mike HarleySimilar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-5
99.7%
Cam'Ron Harris run for a loss of 5 yards to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 15
OWN 47
+27
99.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 12 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Marvin Wilson) to the FlaSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
99.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Larry Hodges for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 12
OPP 40
+10
99.8%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q3 1:50
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+1
99.8%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q3 1:38
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+16
99.8%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 16 yds to the FlaSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
99.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mark Pope for 4 yds Mark Pope fumbled, recovered by MiaFlSimilar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+4
99.8%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 5Similar
Q4 14:57
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+5
99.8%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 17INT
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:230% → 0%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Tate Rodemaker pass incomplete to Kentron PoitierSimilar
Q4 14:30
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.9%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Camren McDonald for 10 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:59100% → 100%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
99.8%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Mike Harley for 7 yds to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 3
OPP 48
-1
99.9%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q4 13:09
3RD & 4
OPP 49
0
99.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Michael Redding IIISimilar
Q4 13:01
4TH & 4
OPP 49
0
99.8%
Matias Gasc punt for 36 yds, downed at the FlaSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:410% → 0%
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+10
99.9%
Lawrance Toafili run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
99.9%
Tate Rodemaker run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q4 11:47
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Lawrance Toafili run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q4 11:35
3RD & 7
OWN 26
-5
99.9%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q4 11:13
3RD & 12
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Tate Rodemaker pass incomplete to Lawrance ToafiliSimilar
Q4 11:03
4TH & 12
OWN 21
+8
99.9%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 54 yds , Xavier Restrepo returns for 8 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20TD
9 plays · 67 yds · 4:05100% → 100%
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+18
99.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for 18 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
99.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Keyshawn SmithSimilar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+18
99.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Robert Burns for 18 yds to the FlaSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
99.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Michael Redding IIISimilar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+5
99.9%
Robert Burns run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q4 8:33
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+13
99.9%
Robert Burns run for 13 yds to the FlaSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
99.9%
N'Kosi Perry run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 12Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+5
99.9%
Robert Burns run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 7Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+7
99.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Michael Redding III for 7 yds for a TD (Camden Price KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 21DOWNS
14 plays · 66 yds · 5:470% → 0%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
100.0%
Lawrance Toafili run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q4 5:53
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
100.0%
Lawrance Toafili run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
100.0%
Lawrance Toafili run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+10
100.0%
Lawrance Toafili run for 10 yds to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
100.0%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Darion Williamson for 7 yds to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+2
100.0%
Ja'Khi Douglas run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+8
100.0%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Kentron Poitier for 8 yds to the MiaFl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
100.0%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Darion Williamson for 8 yds to the MiaFl 19Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+14
100.0%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Kentron Poitier for 14 yds to the MiaFl 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
100.0%
Ja'Khi Douglas run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 1Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
100.0%
Ja'Khi Douglas run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 2Similar
Q4 1:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
100.0%
Tate Rodemaker run for no gain to the MiaFl 2Similar
Q4 0:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
-7
100.0%
Tate Rodemaker sacked by Ryan Ragone for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaFl 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 22END OF 4TH QUARTER
1 play · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
100.0%
Robert Burns run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:36
Cam'Ron Harris run for 12 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK)
+4.5
TD · Q1 0:19
Cam'Ron Harris run for 3 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK)
+4
TD · Q2 3:37
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK)
+2.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com