Try the model
BYU

BYU 55 at Navy 3

NAVY
2020 · Week 1 · Sep 7, 2020 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadBYU aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreBYU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:56 · Daniel Davies punt for 46 yds, downed at the BYU 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+59.0+29.50−29.5−59.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 6Home team on offense+0.0Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Pregame prior−6.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 10:07: Tyler Allgeier 34 Yd Run (Jake Oldroyd Kick) — BYU win probability +1.8 pts (now 57%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 7:16: Lopini Katoa 39 Yd Run (Jake Oldroyd Kick) — BYU win probability +3.1 pts (now 61%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 13:31: Lopini Katoa 15 Yd pass from Zach Wilson (Jake Oldroyd Kick) — BYU win probability +7.6 pts (now 74%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:08: Lopini Katoa 1 Yd Run (Jake Oldroyd Kick) — BYU win probability +6.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 13:05: Gunner Romney 45 Yd pass from Zach Wilson (Jake Oldroyd Kick) — BYU win probability +2.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 10 of 10BYU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 12:56NAVY 4th & 7 at NAVY 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:43NAVY 4th & 10 at NAVY 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:59NAVY 4th & 6 at NAVY 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:45NAVY 4th & 19 at BYU 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%−0.9
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    41.4%−0.4
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:36NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 48, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    28.0%−1.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:00BYU 4th & 5 at NAVY 5, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.4%
    92% to make
    Punt
    76.9%−3.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:43NAVY 4th & 19 at NAVY 16, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%−3.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:40BYU 4th & 1 at NAVY 36, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    86.3%−0.7
    42% to make
    Punt
    85.4%−1.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:15NAVY 4th & 4 at BYU 22, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    2.0%−<0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    1.6%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:15NAVY 4th & 22 at NAVY 13, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:09BYU 4th & 10 at NAVY 17, up 45
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.4%
    80% to make
    Punt
    98.0%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:54NAVY 4th & 9 at BYU 31, down 48
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.5%
    54% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:24BYU 4th & 2 at BYU 33, up 45
    Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:15NAVY 4th & 23 at NAVY 10, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:28BYU 4th & 6 at NAVY 7, up 52
    Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BYU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 10:07BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:16BYU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:31BYU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:08BYU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:05BYU Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:10BYU Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:26BYU Touchdown, up 51 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NAVYDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:4944% → 44%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
43.9%
Jamale Carothers run for 2 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
44.0%
NAVY Penalty, Illegal Shift (-5 Yards) to the Navy 22Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+3
44.0%
Jamale Carothers run for 3 yds to the Navy 25Similar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+3
44.2%
Dalen Morris run for 3 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q1 12:56
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
44.2%
Daniel Davies punt for 46 yds, downed at the BYU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 2TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 2:4356% → 57%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
44.4%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Gunner RomneySimilar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+8
44.5%
Lopini Katoa run for 8 yds to the BYU 34Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+3
44.6%
Dax Milne run for 3 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
44.6%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Gunner RomneySimilar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
44.7%
Tyler Allgeier run for 5 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+24
44.6%
Tyler Allgeier run for 9 yds to the NAVY 49 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Navy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
42.8%
Tyler Allgeier 34 Yd Run (Jake Oldroyd Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:1443% → 43%
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
43.3%
Dalen Morris run for 1 yd to the Navy 26Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
43.2%
Dalen Morris pass incomplete to Myles FellsSimilar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-1
42.8%
Dalen Morris run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 25Similar
Q1 8:43
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
42.5%
Daniel Davies punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BYU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 4TD
3 plays · 52 yds · 1:0458% → 61%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
42.3%
Lopini Katoa run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 8
50
+11
42.0%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 11 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
38.9%
Lopini Katoa 39 Yd Run (Jake Oldroyd Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 17 yds · 3:1140% → 39%
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
40.3%
Chance Warren run for 5 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
40.3%
Jamale Carothers run for 3 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
39.9%
Jamale Carothers run for 5 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
40.1%
NAVY Penalty, False Start (Jamale Carothers) to the Navy 33Similar
Q1 5:08
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+3
39.2%
Nelson Smith run for 3 yds to the Navy 36Similar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+4
39.1%
Dalen Morris run for 4 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q1 4:10
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+2
39.1%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q1 3:59
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
38.6%
Daniel Davies punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Dax Milne at the BYU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 6INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q1 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-9
37.2%
Zach Wilson pass intercepted Evan Fochtman return for 9 yds to the BYU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:4038% → 37%
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-15
38.3%
Chance Warren sacked by Isaiah Kaufusi for a loss of 15 yards to the BYU 48 Chance Warren fumbled, forced by Isaiah Kaufusi, recovered by Navy Sean Rattay , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 25
OPP 48
+6
37.4%
Dalen Morris pass complete to Myles Fells for 6 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q1 2:52
3RD & 19
OPP 42
0
37.0%
Dalen Morris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:45
4TH & 19
OPP 42
0
36.9%
Daniel Davies punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Dax Milne at the BYU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 8TD
9 plays · 89 yds · 3:5864% → 74%
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
36.4%
Tyler Allgeier run for 5 yds to the BYU 16Similar
Q1 1:58
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+6
36.1%
Tyler Allgeier run for 6 yds to the BYU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+17
35.6%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 17 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
34.7%
Lopini Katoa run for 5 yds to the BYU 44Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+3
34.5%
Lopini Katoa run for 3 yds to the BYU 47Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+29
34.6%
Tyler Allgeier run for 29 yds to the Navy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
33.8%
Tyler Allgeier run for 9 yds to the Navy 15Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+15
26.1%
Lopini Katoa 15 Yd pass from Zach Wilson (Jake Oldroyd Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 9DOWNS
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:4427% → 27%
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
27.3%
Myles Fells run for 14 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
27.8%
Jamale Carothers run for 1 yd to the Navy 40Similar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 9
OWN 40
-2
27.2%
Dalen Morris run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 38Similar
Q2 11:43
3RD & 11
OWN 38
+10
25.8%
Dalen Morris pass complete to Mark Walker for 10 yds to the Navy 48Similar
Q2 11:36
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
26.8%
Dalen Morris run for no gain to the Navy 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 10FG
11 plays · 43 yds · 6:0976% → 78%
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
24.3%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Masen Wake for 5 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+3
23.3%
Neil Pau'u run for 3 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q2 10:04
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+6
23.1%
Tyler Allgeier run for 6 yds to the Navy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
21.8%
Tyler Allgeier run for 4 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+9
21.1%
Lopini Katoa run for 9 yds to the Navy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
21.7%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 5 yds to the Navy 16Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+9
21.2%
Dax Milne run for 9 yds to the Navy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
20.5%
Tyler Allgeier run for 3 yds to the Navy 4Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-6
19.7%
Neil Pau'u run for a loss of 6 yards to the Navy 10Similar
Q2 5:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
20.6%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 5 yds to the Navy 5Similar
Q2 5:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
21.9%
Jake Oldroyd 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 1:4719% → 18%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
19.4%
Dalen Morris sacked by Bracken El-Bakri for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 22Similar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+3
18.8%
Nelson Smith run for 3 yds to the Navy 25Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-12
18.1%
Morris, Dalen pass complete to Warren, Chance for 12 yards to the NAVY37, PENALTY NAVY personal foul (Fratianne, Luca) 12 yards to the NAVY13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:50
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+3
17.7%
Nelson Smith run for 3 yds to the Navy 16Similar
Q2 2:43
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
17.7%
Daniel Davies punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Dax Milne at the BYU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 12TD
12 plays · 56 yds · 2:0581% → 94%
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
18.8%
Zach Wilson run for 4 yds to the BYU 48Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+7
15.1%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 7 yds to the Navy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
13.7%
BYU Penalty, False Start (Isaac Rex) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 15
50
+14
13.5%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 14 yds to the Navy 36Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 1
OPP 36
0
13.6%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Gunner RomneySimilar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 1
OPP 36
0
12.9%
Lopini Katoa run for no gain to the Navy 36Similar
Q2 0:40
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+3
14.2%
Zach Wilson run for 3 yds to the Navy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
12.9%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Gunner Romney for 13 yds to the Navy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
12.2%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Gunner RomneySimilar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+19
12.2%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 19 yds to the Navy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
5.8%
Lopini Katoa 1 Yd Run (Jake Oldroyd Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
6.8%
Jamale Carothers run for 1 yd to the Navy 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 14TD
5 plays · 83 yds · 1:2592% → 96%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
7.7%
Lopini Katoa run for 5 yds to the BYU 22Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+33
7.5%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Gunner Romney for 33 yds to the Navy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
6.7%
Chris Jackson run for no gain to the Navy 45Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+45
3.8%
Gunner Romney 45 Yd pass from Zach Wilson (Jake Oldroyd Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15DOWNS
9 plays · 52 yds · 3:103% → 2%
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
3.3%
Jamale Carothers run for 6 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+3
2.9%
Jamale Carothers run for 3 yds to the Navy 37Similar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+4
3.0%
Jamale Carothers run for 4 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+31
3.0%
Perry Olsen run for 31 yds to the BYU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
3.1%
Perry Olsen run for 2 yds to the BYU 26Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 8
OPP 26
0
2.9%
Justin Smith run for no gain to the BYU 26Similar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+4
2.5%
Perry Olsen run for 4 yds to the BYU 22Similar
Q3 9:15
4TH & 4
OPP 22
+2
2.0%
Mark Walker run for 2 yds to the BYU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 16TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:4598% → 98%
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
2.5%
Tyler Allgeier run for 5 yds to the BYU 25Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+15
2.3%
Dax Milne run for 15 yds to the BYU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+43
2.1%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Gunner Romney for 43 yds to the Navy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
1.8%
Tyler Allgeier 17 Yd Run (Jake Oldroyd Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -12 yds · 0:501% → 1%
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
1.3%
Perry Olsen pass incomplete to Mychal CooperSimilar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
1.2%
Perry Olsen run for 2 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-2
1.2%
Perry Olsen sacked by Isaiah Kaufusi for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 25Similar
Q3 6:20
4TH & 10
OWN 25
-12
1.1%
NAVY Penalty, Personal Foul (Myles Fells) to the Navy 13Similar
Q3 6:15
4TH & 22
OWN 13
0
1.1%
Daniel Davies punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 18FG
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:3199% → 99%
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
50
+12
1.4%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 12 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
1.4%
Lopini Katoa run for 8 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+13
1.3%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Chris Jackson for 13 yds to the Navy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
1.2%
Tyler Allgeier run for a loss of 5 yards to the Navy 22Similar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 15
OPP 22
0
1.1%
Baylor Romney pass incomplete to Tyler AllgeierSimilar
Q3 3:33
3RD & 15
OPP 22
+5
1.1%
Tyler Allgeier run for 5 yds to the Navy 17Similar
Q3 3:09
4TH & 10
OPP 17
+34
1.4%
Jake Oldroyd 34 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19FG
7 plays · 44 yds · 1:461% → 1%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
0.7%
Perry Olsen pass complete to Mark Walker for 10 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+33
0.7%
Myles Fells run for 33 yds to the BYU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
0.8%
Perry Olsen pass incomplete to Mark WalkerSimilar
Q3 1:59
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-3
0.7%
Perry Olsen run for a loss of 3 yards to the BYU 35Similar
Q3 1:20
3RD & 13
OPP 35
+4
0.6%
Perry Olsen pass complete to Devon High for 4 yds to the BYU 31Similar
Q3 0:54
4TH & 9
OPP 31
+48
0.6%
Bijan Nichols 48 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5999% → 99%
Q3 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
0.8%
Jackson McChesney run for 7 yds to the BYU 32Similar
Q4 14:36
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
0.7%
Jackson McChesney run for no gain to the BYU 32Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
0.7%
Jackson McChesney run for 1 yd to the BYU 33Similar
Q4 13:24
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+12
0.7%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 56 yds , Mark Walker returns for 12 yds to the Navy 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 1:200% → 0%
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
0.4%
Perry Olsen sacked by Seleti Fevaleaki for a loss of 5 yards to the Navy 18Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 15
OWN 18
+8
0.3%
Myles Fells run for 8 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q4 11:35
3RD & 7
OWN 26
-11
0.3%
Perry Olsen sacked by George Udo for a loss of 11 yards to the Navy 15Similar
Q4 11:25
4TH & 18
OWN 15
-5
0.3%
NAVY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Navy 10Similar
Q4 11:15
4TH & 23
OWN 10
-2
0.3%
Daniel Davies punt for 31 yds , Dax Milne returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 22TD
6 plays · 43 yds · 3:14100% → 100%
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
0.4%
Talmage Gunther run for 4 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 6
OPP 39
-2
0.3%
Baylor Romney run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 41Similar
Q4 9:35
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+22
0.3%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Keanu Hill for 22 yds to the Navy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
0.3%
Jackson McChesney run for 7 yds to the Navy 12Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+3
0.2%
Jackson McChesney run for 3 yds to the Navy 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
0.3%
Jackson McChesney 9 Yd Run (Jake Oldroyd Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 23FUMBLE
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:300% → 0%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
0.1%
Nelson Smith run for 7 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
0.1%
Perry Olsen run for 6 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
0.1%
Perry Olsen run for 1 yd to the Navy 39 Perry Olsen fumbled, forced by Drew Jensen, recovered by BYU Morgan PyperSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 24DOWNS
10 plays · 29 yds · 5:32100% → 100%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
0.2%
Jackson McChesney run for 1 yd to the Navy 38Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+15
0.2%
Jackson McChesney run for 15 yds to the Navy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
0.2%
Jackson McChesney run for 6 yds to the Navy 17Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+2
0.2%
Terence Fall run for 2 yds to the Navy 15Similar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+4
0.2%
Chase Wester run for 4 yds to the Navy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
0.1%
Jackson McChesney run for 8 yds to the Navy 3Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 2
OPP 3
-1
0.1%
Jackson McChesney run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 4Similar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 3
OPP 4
-3
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 7Similar
Q4 0:28
4TH & 6
OPP 7
-3
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 25END OF 4TH QUARTER
1 play · -1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 13:31
Lopini Katoa 15 Yd pass from Zach Wilson (Jake Oldroyd Kick)
-7.6
TD · Q2 0:08
Lopini Katoa 1 Yd Run (Jake Oldroyd Kick)
-6.3
TD · Q1 7:16
Lopini Katoa 39 Yd Run (Jake Oldroyd Kick)
-3.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com