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DUKE

Duke 13 at Notre Dame 27

ND
2020 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2020 · Notre Dame Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:31 · Porter Wilson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Lawrence Keys III at the NDame 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+43.0+21.50−21.5−43.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 116Pregame prior+19.7Home team on offense+10.0Garbage-time factor+1.1Score differential+4.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.4Blowout margin+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:39: Kyren Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK) — ND win probability +1.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:57: Kyren Williams run for 26 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK) — ND win probability +6.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:19: Chase Brice run for 2 yds for a TD (Charlie Ham KICK) — DUKE win probability +13.0 pts (now 26%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 10:58: Ian Book pass complete to Avery Davis for 17 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK) — ND win probability +10.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 5:21: Jonathan Doerer 34 yd FG GOOD — ND win probability +2.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 7 of 9DUKE made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 12:17DUKE 4th & 2 at ND 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    9.2%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    9.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:54ND 4th & 11 at ND 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.2%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:01DUKE 4th & 11 at ND 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.0%
    87% to make
    Punt
    10.5%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:48ND 4th & 9 at ND 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:33DUKE 4th & 14 at DUKE 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.5%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:42ND 4th & 10 at ND 19, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.9%
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:16DUKE 4th & 1 at DUKE 45, up 3
    Close callPunted · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:40ND 4th & 8 at ND 21, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.4%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    84.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:53DUKE 4th & 7 at DUKE 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:32ND 4th & 4 at DUKE 46, up 4
    Close callPunted · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    85.1%−0.7
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.5%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:20DUKE 4th & 12 at ND 12, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.3%
    86% to make
    Punt
    13.6%−2.7
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:13DUKE 4th & 4 at DUKE 41, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:40ND 4th & 6 at ND 27, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:57ND 4th & 1 at DUKE 26, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    80.9%−1.8
    64% to make
    Punt
    76.2%−6.6
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:31DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 48, down 11
    Close callPunted · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 4:43ND 4th & 4 at ND 14, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.6%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:06DUKE 4th & 18 at DUKE 17, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%−0.7
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.4%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:21ND 4th & 9 at DUKE 16, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.0%
    81% to make
    Punt
    91.9%−2.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 3 of 3DUKE made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 10:39ND Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 7:57ND Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:19DUKE Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:58ND Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1DOWNS
7 plays · 45 yds · 2:337% → 8%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+22
92.8%
Chase Brice pass complete to Noah Gray for 22 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
92.6%
Deon Jackson run for 3 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+12
92.5%
Deon Jackson run for 12 yds to the NDame 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
92.4%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Eli PancolSimilar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+5
92.3%
Deon Jackson run for 5 yds to the NDame 42Similar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+3
92.3%
Deon Jackson run for 3 yds to the NDame 39Similar
Q1 12:17
4TH & 2
OPP 39
0
92.1%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Jake MarwedeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2192% → 92%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
92.2%
Kyren Williams run for 1 yd to the NDame 40Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 9
OWN 40
-2
92.2%
Ian Book sacked by Rocky Shelton II and Ben Frye for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 38Similar
Q1 11:01
3RD & 11
OWN 38
0
91.8%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Kyren WilliamsSimilar
Q1 10:54
4TH & 11
OWN 38
0
91.7%
Jay Bramblett punt for 52 yds, downed at the Duke 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3FG
10 plays · 79 yds · 3:478% → 10%
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
91.8%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+11
91.7%
Deon Jackson run for 11 yds to the Duke 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
91.6%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jake Bobo for 11 yds to the Duke 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
91.5%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 5 yds to the Duke 37Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 5
OWN 37
0
91.1%
Mataeo Durant run for no gain to the Duke 37Similar
Q1 8:32
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+55
91.0%
Chase Brice pass complete to Eli Pancol for 55 yds to the NDame 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-4
90.6%
Deon Jackson run for a loss of 4 yards to the NDame 12Similar
Q1 7:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+1
90.4%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd to the NDame 11Similar
Q1 7:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
90.4%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
90.4%
Charlie Ham 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:5590% → 90%
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
90.4%
Kyren Williams run for 2 yds to the NDame 40Similar
Q1 6:24
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+4
90.4%
Kyren Williams run for 4 yds to the NDame 44Similar
Q1 5:56
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
90.1%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Kyren WilliamsSimilar
Q1 5:56
4TH & 4
OWN 44
-5
89.8%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NDame 39Similar
Q1 5:48
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
89.6%
Jay Bramblett punt for 45 yds , Josh Blackwell returns for no gain to the Duke 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 1:5710% → 11%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
89.8%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the Duke 18Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+10
89.7%
Chase Brice pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 10 yds to the Duke 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
89.6%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-7
89.5%
Chase Brice run for 3 yds to the Duke 31 DUKE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Duke 21Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 17
OWN 21
0
89.4%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:08
3RD & 17
OWN 21
+3
89.5%
Chase Brice run for 3 yds to the Duke 24Similar
Q1 3:33
4TH & 14
OWN 24
+3
89.4%
Porter Wilson punt for 60 yds , Lawrence Keys III returns for 3 yds to the NDame 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:3889% → 88%
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
88.8%
Chris Tyree run for no gain to the NDame 19Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 10
OWN 19
-10
88.6%
Ian Book sacked by Rocky Shelton II for a loss of 10 yards to the NDame 9Similar
Q1 2:12
3RD & 20
OWN 9
+10
88.0%
Ian Book pass complete to Tommy Tremble for 10 yds to the NDame 19Similar
Q1 1:42
4TH & 10
OWN 19
+8
87.6%
Jay Bramblett punt for 53 yds , Josh Blackwell returns for 8 yds to the Duke 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1412% → 13%
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
87.8%
Chase Brice pass complete to Noah Gray for 1 yd to the Duke 37Similar
Q1 1:08
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
87.7%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q1 0:56
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+8
87.8%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 8 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q1 0:16
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
87.4%
Porter Wilson punt for 51 yds, downed at the NDame 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 8TD
13 plays · 96 yds · 4:2187% → 89%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
87.2%
Kyren Williams run for 2 yds to the NDame 6Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 8
OWN 6
+3
87.1%
Kyren Williams run for 3 yds to the NDame 9Similar
Q2 14:02
3RD & 5
OWN 9
+10
86.4%
Ian Book pass complete to Tommy Tremble for 10 yds to the NDame 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
86.7%
Ian Book pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+2
86.6%
Kyren Williams run for 2 yds to the NDame 21Similar
Q2 13:17
3RD & 8
OWN 21
0
86.1%
Ian Book pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:40
4TH & 8
OWN 21
+14
85.5%
Jay Bramblett run for 14 yds to the NDame 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
86.1%
Ian Book pass complete to Michael Mayer for 17 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+26
86.7%
Kyren Williams run for 11 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST down DUKE Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Duke 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
86.9%
Kyren Williams run for no gain to the Duke 22Similar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+20
86.8%
Ian Book pass complete to Jafar Armstrong for 20 yds to the Duke 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
86.8%
DUKE Penalty, Defensive Offside (1 Yards) to the Duke 1Similar
Q2 10:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.6%
Kyren Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:3713% → 12%
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
87.5%
Deon Jackson run for 3 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
87.3%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Damond Philyaw-JohnsonSimilar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
87.6%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Jake MarwedeSimilar
Q2 9:53
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
87.8%
Porter Wilson punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NDame 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 2:1888% → 87%
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
87.5%
Ian Book pass complete to Tommy Tremble for 13 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
87.9%
Kyren Williams run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 8
50
+4
87.8%
Kyren Williams run for 4 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 4
OPP 46
0
87.5%
Ian Book pass complete to Jafar Armstrong for no gain to the Duke 46Similar
Q2 7:32
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
87.0%
Jay Bramblett punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Josh Blackwell at the Duke 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11FG
12 plays · 80 yds · 4:0913% → 16%
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
86.7%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the Duke 10Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+8
86.5%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jake Bobo for 8 yds to the Duke 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
86.0%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 12 yds to the Duke 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
85.7%
Deon Jackson run for 11 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+25
84.8%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 25 yds to the NDame 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+16
83.7%
Chase Brice pass complete to Eli Pancol for 16 yds to the NDame 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
83.4%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Damond Philyaw-JohnsonSimilar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+9
83.5%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Defensive Holding (9 Yards) to the NDame 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
83.2%
Chase Brice pass complete to Eli Pancol for 7 yds to the NDame 2Similar
Q2 3:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
82.9%
Deon Jackson run for no gain to the NDame 2Similar
Q2 3:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-10
83.4%
Chase Brice sacked by Isaiah Foskey for a loss of 10 yards to the NDame 12Similar
Q2 3:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+30
84.1%
Charlie Ham 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 12INT
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:4385% → 86%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+75
84.7%
Ian Book pass complete to Kyren Williams for 75 yds to the Duke 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
86.2%
Ian Book pass intercepted, touchback. Lummie Young IV return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:1216% → 17%
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
83.7%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jake Bobo for 15 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
83.2%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
83.4%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+6
83.9%
Chase Brice run for 6 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q2 1:13
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
83.2%
Porter Wilson punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Lawrence Keys III at the NDame 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14END OF HALF
10 plays · 54 yds · 1:0584% → 85%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
83.7%
Ian Book pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+5
83.4%
DUKE Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the NDame 21Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+4
83.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Joe Wilkins for 4 yds to the NDame 25Similar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+7
82.7%
Kyren Williams run for 7 yds to the NDame 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
83.8%
Ian Book pass complete to Joe Wilkins for 15 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
84.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Joe Wilkins for 13 yds to the Duke 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
85.3%
Ian Book run for 3 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 7
OPP 30
0
85.2%
Ian Book pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+48
85.3%
Jonathan Doerer 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 2:1584% → 82%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+10
84.1%
Kyren Williams run for 10 yds to the NDame 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
83.9%
Kyren Williams run for 3 yds to the NDame 26Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+1
83.8%
Kyren Williams run for 1 yd to the NDame 27Similar
Q3 12:48
3RD & 6
OWN 27
0
82.6%
Ian Book pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:40
4TH & 6
OWN 27
+6
81.8%
Jay Bramblett punt for 37 yds , Josh Blackwell returns for 6 yds to the Duke 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16FUMBLE
2 plays · 17 yds · 0:2719% → 20%
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
81.5%
Chase Brice pass complete to Noah Gray for 3 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+2
80.5%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the Duke 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 17TD
8 plays · 59 yds · 3:1584% → 90%
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
83.6%
Kyren Williams run for 12 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
85.8%
Ian Book pass complete to Lawrence Keys III for 4 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q3 10:02
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+8
85.6%
Ian Book run for 8 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
85.9%
Chris Tyree run for 1 yd to the Duke 34Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+7
85.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Joe Wilkins for 7 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+1
84.9%
Ian Book run for 1 yd to the Duke 26Similar
Q3 7:57
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+26
90.0%
Kyren Williams run for 26 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:2111% → 11%
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
89.1%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Jalon Calhoun for a 1ST down NOTRE DAME Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Duke 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
88.6%
Deon Jackson run for 5 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 5
OWN 48
0
88.1%
Deon Jackson run for no gain to the Duke 48Similar
Q3 6:39
3RD & 5
OWN 48
0
88.1%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:31
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
89.1%
Porter Wilson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Lawrence Keys III at the NDame 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3989% → 89%
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-2
89.1%
Chris Tyree run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 6Similar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 12
OWN 6
+3
89.4%
Ian Book pass complete to Tommy Tremble for 3 yds to the NDame 9Similar
Q3 5:18
3RD & 9
OWN 9
+5
88.8%
Ian Book run for 5 yds to the NDame 14Similar
Q3 4:43
4TH & 4
OWN 14
+9
88.9%
Jay Bramblett punt for 34 yds , Josh Blackwell returns for 9 yds to the NDame 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 20TD
6 plays · 39 yds · 2:0412% → 26%
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
87.7%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the NDame 37Similar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+13
87.7%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jontavis Robertson for 13 yds to the NDame 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+19
87.2%
Chase Brice pass complete to Noah Gray for 19 yds to the NDame 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
87.1%
Mataeo Durant run for no gain to the NDame 5Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
87.0%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the NDame 2Similar
Q3 2:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
74.1%
Chase Brice run for 2 yds for a TD (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 21TD
16 plays · 83 yds · 6:1081% → 93%
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
81.0%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Kyren WilliamsSimilar
Q3 1:58
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+14
80.5%
Kyren Williams run for 14 yds to the NDame 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
81.2%
Ian Book sacked by Shaka Heyward for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 29Similar
Q3 0:58
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+4
80.3%
Ian Book run for 4 yds to the NDame 33Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+9
79.5%
Ian Book pass complete to Avery Davis for 9 yds to the NDame 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
82.3%
Ian Book pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
81.2%
Jafar Armstrong run for 3 yds to the NDame 45Similar
Q4 13:58
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+7
80.8%
Ian Book pass complete to Michael Mayer for 7 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
82.5%
Kyren Williams run for 7 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q4 12:33
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+2
82.3%
Jafar Armstrong run for 2 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q4 11:57
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+4
81.2%
Jahmir Smith run for 4 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+18
82.4%
Ian Book pass complete to Kyren Williams for 18 yds to the Duke 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
82.2%
Ian Book pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
82.2%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Joe WilkinsSimilar
Q4 10:58
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+17
92.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Avery Davis for 17 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:238% → 7%
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
91.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Deon Jackson for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 22Similar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 13
OWN 22
-2
92.2%
Deon Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 20Similar
Q4 9:48
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-3
92.6%
Chase Brice pass complete to Deon Jackson for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 17Similar
Q4 9:06
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
93.2%
Porter Wilson punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Lawrence Keys III at the NDame 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 23FG
6 plays · 40 yds · 3:4094% → 97%
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+25
93.8%
Chris Tyree run for 25 yds to the Duke 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+14
94.0%
Ian Book pass complete to Michael Mayer for 14 yds to the Duke 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
94.1%
Chris Tyree run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 19Similar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 12
OPP 19
-2
94.3%
Chris Tyree run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 21Similar
Q4 5:57
3RD & 14
OPP 21
+5
94.6%
Ian Book run for 5 yds to the Duke 16Similar
Q4 5:21
4TH & 9
OPP 16
+34
96.9%
Jonathan Doerer 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 24FUMBLE
11 plays · 35 yds · 2:275% → 3%
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.7%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
94.8%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q4 5:01
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+23
94.9%
Chase Brice run for 23 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
93.9%
Chase Brice sacked by Kurt Hinish for a loss of 5 yards to the Duke 43Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 15
OWN 43
+4
95.6%
Chase Brice run for 4 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q4 3:26
3RD & 11
OWN 47
+23
95.1%
Chase Brice pass complete to Noah Gray for 23 yds to the NDame 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
94.5%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-6
94.6%
Chase Brice sacked by Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah for a loss of 6 yards to the NDame 36Similar
Q4 2:51
3RD & 16
OPP 36
-4
97.4%
Chase Brice sacked by TEAM for a loss of 4 yards to the NDame 40 Chase Brice fumbled, recovered by NDame Adetokunbo Ogundeji , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 25Uncategorized
4 plays · 11 yds · 1:4198% → 99%
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
98.2%
Jahmir Smith run for 2 yds to the NDame 42Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+7
98.5%
Jahmir Smith run for 7 yds to the NDame 49Similar
Q4 0:56
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+1
98.6%
Jahmir Smith run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
50
+1
98.6%
Jahmir Smith run for 1 yd to the Duke 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:19
Chase Brice run for 2 yds for a TD (Charlie Ham KICK)
-13
TD · Q4 10:58
Ian Book pass complete to Avery Davis for 17 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)
+10.8
TD · Q3 7:57
Kyren Williams run for 26 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)
+6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com