Try the model
MIA

Miami 47 at Louisville 34

LOU
2020 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2020 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreMIA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-3.1LOU 2.9%Jose Borregales 40 yd FG GOODAWAY 40 - HOME 20 · Q4 10:58
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:58 · Jose Borregales 40 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 164Home team on offense−44.4Score differential−23.3Garbage-time factor−8.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−6.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.5Pregame prior−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:28: Javian Hawkins run for 19 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +14.0 pts (now 40%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:15: Cam'Ron Harris run for 75 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +14.5 pts (now 77%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:13: Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 6 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +18.0 pts (now 41%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:02: D'Eriq King pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for 75 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +18.6 pts (now 84%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:04: Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 4 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +12.0 pts (now 15%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10MIA made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 12:24MIA 4th & 20 at MIA 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:02LOU 4th & 4 at MIA 22, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.8%−<0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    46.0%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:20LOU 4th & 5 at LOU 42, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:36LOU 4th & 1 at MIA 37, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    39.0%−1.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    38.9%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:06LOU 4th & 3 at MIA 4, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.5%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.8%−0.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    33.3%−5.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:07MIA 4th & 10 at LOU 31, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.5%
    54% to make
    Punt
    59.5%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:57LOU 4th & 4 at LOU 31, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:49MIA 4th & 5 at LOU 40, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.8%−0.6
    34% to make
    Punt
    64.9%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:41LOU 4th & 3 at MIA 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    28.7%−1.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    28.7%−1.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:59MIA 4th & 29 at MIA 26, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%−3.8
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.1%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:29MIA 4th & 3 at MIA 49, up 14
    Close callPunted · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.9%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:14LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    22.1%−1.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:30LOU 4th & 21 at LOU 10, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−2.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:40MIA 4th & 5 at LOU 5, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.8%
    92% to make
    Punt
    75.9%−9.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:56LOU 4th & 13 at LOU 30, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%−2.0
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:58MIA 4th & 8 at LOU 23, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    89.1%−3.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:24LOU 4th & 2 at LOU 33, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.8%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4MIA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 7:11MIA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:41MIA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:28LOU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:15MIA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:13LOU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:02MIA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:04LOU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.7%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.9%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:20MIA Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−0.4
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:06LOU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.9%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIADrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 2:3553% → 52%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
46.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 18 yds to the MiaFl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
46.9%
King, D'Eriq rush for 3 yards to the MIAMI46, PENALTY MIAMI illegal formation 5 yards to the MIAMI38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:26
1ST & 15
OWN 38
-2
46.9%
D'Eriq King sacked by Jared Goldwire for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 17
OWN 36
-2
47.1%
Cam'Ron Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q1 13:23
3RD & 19
OWN 34
-5
47.3%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Jakai Clark) to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q1 12:58
3RD & 24
OWN 29
+4
47.4%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Cam'Ron Harris for 4 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q1 12:24
4TH & 20
OWN 33
0
47.6%
Lou Hedley punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Rodjay Burns at the Lvile 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2FG
9 plays · 58 yds · 3:2148% → 49%
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
47.5%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Tutu AtwellSimilar
Q1 12:19
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+10
47.5%
Javian Hawkins run for 10 yds to the Lvile 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
47.6%
Javian Hawkins run for 2 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+24
47.7%
Malik Cunningham run for 24 yds to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+16
48.4%
Malik Cunningham run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 43 for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, Personal Foul (Keontra Smith) to the MiaFl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
48.6%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+8
48.6%
Javian Hawkins run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q1 9:43
3RD & 2
OPP 20
-2
48.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q1 9:02
4TH & 4
OPP 22
+40
49.2%
James Turner 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:5051% → 54%
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
49.0%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 11 yds to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+38
48.8%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 38 yds to the Lvile 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
48.2%
Cam'Ron Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 27Similar
Q1 7:39
2ND & 11
OPP 27
+5
48.4%
King, D'Eriq pass incomplete to Jordan, Brevin, PENALTY LOUISVILLE offside 5 yards to the LOUISVILLE22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+5
48.3%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mark Pope for 5 yds to the Lvile 17Similar
Q1 7:11
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+17
46.3%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Will Mallory for 17 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:5047% → 47%
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
47.0%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 12 yds to the Lvile 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
47.3%
Javian Hawkins run for 1 yd to the Lvile 38Similar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+4
47.3%
Javian Hawkins run for 4 yds to the Lvile 42Similar
Q1 5:32
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
47.6%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:20
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
46.8%
Logan Lupo punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Mark Pope at the MiaFl 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5TD
12 plays · 86 yds · 3:3853% → 59%
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
47.2%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 15Similar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 9
OWN 15
0
47.3%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Donald Chaney Jr.Similar
Q1 4:42
3RD & 9
OWN 15
-5
47.7%
King, D'Eriq pass complete to Mallory, Will for 74 yards to the LOUISVILLE11, PENALTY MIAMI false start (Scaife Jr., DJ) 5 yards to the MIAMI10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:26
3RD & 14
OWN 10
+31
47.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mark Pope for 31 yds to the MiaFl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
46.4%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mike Harley for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:04
2ND & 1
50
+18
46.0%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 18 yds to the Lvile 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
45.8%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Mike HarleySimilar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-1
45.9%
D'Eriq King run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 33Similar
Q1 2:59
3RD & 11
OPP 33
+13
46.4%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 13 yds to the Lvile 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
45.5%
Jaylan Knighton run for 4 yds to the Lvile 16Similar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+13
45.4%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 13 yds to the Lvile 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
41.3%
Jaylan Knighton run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6FG
14 plays · 71 yds · 5:3442% → 42%
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
41.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 10 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
41.8%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 19 yds to the MiaFl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
42.7%
Hassan Hall run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+2
42.5%
Hassan Hall run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+2
42.4%
Hassan Hall run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q2 14:36
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+4
41.6%
Javian Hawkins run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
42.5%
Javian Hawkins run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+21
42.3%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Justin Marshall for 21 yds to the MiaFl 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
42.2%
Javian Hawkins run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 10Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+2
41.9%
Hassan Hall run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 8Similar
Q2 11:27
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+4
40.8%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jaelan Phillips) to the MiaFl 4Similar
Q2 11:14
3RD & 3
OPP 4
0
40.8%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Ean PfeiferSimilar
Q2 11:06
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+22
42.0%
James Turner 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7FG
7 plays · 34 yds · 0:5860% → 62%
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
40.3%
Cam'Ron Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+36
39.3%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mike Harley for 21 yds to the LOUISVILLE 46 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, Personal Foul (Russ Yeast) to the Lvile 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
38.7%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Mark PopeSimilar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
38.8%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Mark PopeSimilar
Q2 10:17
3RD & 10
OPP 31
0
39.2%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Dee WigginsSimilar
Q2 10:07
4TH & 10
OPP 31
+48
37.8%
Jose Borregales 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 2:0939% → 35%
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
38.7%
Javian Hawkins run for 9 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-13
39.0%
Malik Cunningham sacked by Jared Harrison-Hunte for a loss of 13 yards to the Lvile 21Similar
Q2 8:52
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+10
36.9%
Malik Cunningham run for 10 yds to the Lvile 31Similar
Q2 7:57
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
35.4%
Logan Lupo punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Mark Pope at the MiaFl 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9FG
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:0764% → 70%
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
35.8%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Brevin JordanSimilar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+4
36.0%
D'Eriq King run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q2 7:13
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+12
35.5%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 12 yds to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
35.0%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 4 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+1
34.8%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 1 yd to the Lvile 40Similar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 5
OPP 40
0
34.8%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Mark PopeSimilar
Q2 5:49
4TH & 5
OPP 40
+57
30.4%
Jose Borregales 57 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 10DOWNS
9 plays · 30 yds · 3:0731% → 31%
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
30.9%
Javian Hawkins run for 9 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q2 5:21
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
31.4%
Javian Hawkins run for 6 yds to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
31.6%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Javian Hawkins for 12 yds to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
32.1%
Hassan Hall run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 12
50
+8
31.0%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 8 yds to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q2 3:19
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+1
31.3%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Hassan Hall for 1 yd to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q2 2:41
4TH & 3
OPP 41
-4
31.3%
Malik Cunningham sacked by Bradley Jennings Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaFl 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11PUNT
9 plays · -19 yds · 0:4272% → 73%
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
27.6%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (John Campbell Jr.) to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 15
OWN 40
0
28.0%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Mark PopeSimilar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 15
OWN 44
-6
27.8%
D'Eriq King run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 44 MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive Holding (John Campbell Jr.) to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 21
OWN 34
+2
28.7%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q2 2:14
3RD & 19
OWN 36
-15
28.4%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Personal Foul (DJ Scaife Jr.) to the MiaFl 21Similar
Q2 2:12
3RD & 34
OWN 21
+5
28.7%
D'Eriq King run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q2 1:59
4TH & 29
OWN 26
+44
27.3%
Lou Hedley punt for 44 yds, downed at the LOUISVILLE 30 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Running Into Kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12INT
4 plays · 26 yds · 0:2228% → 29%
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
27.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 11 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
29.0%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 12 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
29.6%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 3 yds to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
29.3%
Malik Cunningham pass intercepted Al Blades Jr. return for no gain to the MiaFl 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:0675% → 74%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
24.8%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+2
24.5%
D'Eriq King run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+1
25.8%
D'Eriq King run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q2 0:29
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
26.3%
Lou Hedley punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Rodjay Burns at the Lvile 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14FUMBLE
2 plays · 20 yds · 0:2826% → 25%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
25.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Hassan Hall for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 14Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+21
24.8%
Hassan Hall run for 21 yds to the Lvile 43 Hassan Hall fumbled, forced by Bubba Bolden, recovered by MiaFl Amari CarterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3127% → 40%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
26.5%
Javian Hawkins run for 10 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
26.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 4 yds to the Lvile 39Similar
Q3 14:01
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+24
28.2%
Javian Hawkins run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, Personal Foul (Amari Carter) to the MiaFl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
28.1%
Javian Hawkins run for 11 yds to the MiaFl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
27.9%
Javian Hawkins run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 23Similar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 7
OPP 23
-1
27.6%
Javian Hawkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+5
26.1%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Defensive Offside (Quincy Roche) to the MiaFl 19Similar
Q3 11:28
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+19
40.1%
Javian Hawkins run for 19 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
22.6%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 75 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17TD
12 plays · 74 yds · 5:5624% → 41%
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
23.9%
Javian Hawkins run for 3 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+6
23.5%
Malik Cunningham run for 6 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
Q3 9:58
3RD & 1
OWN 35
0
23.2%
Malik Cunningham run for no gain to the Lvile 35Similar
Q3 9:14
4TH & 1
OWN 35
+7
22.3%
Javian Hawkins run for 7 yds to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
23.4%
Javian Hawkins run for 1 yd to the Lvile 43Similar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+31
22.3%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 31 yds to the MiaFl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
23.8%
Hassan Hall run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 23Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+5
23.4%
Hassan Hall run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q3 6:17
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+13
22.5%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Justin Marshall for 13 yds to the MiaFl 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
22.7%
Hassan Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 6Similar
Q3 5:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
40.8%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 6 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
16.3%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for 75 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -11 yds · 1:2718% → 17%
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
17.9%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Delay of Game (Malik Cunningham) to the Lvile 16Similar
Q3 4:56
1ST & 15
OWN 16
-5
17.8%
Maurice Burkley run for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 11Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 20
OWN 11
0
17.3%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
Q3 4:19
3RD & 20
OWN 11
-1
16.9%
Malik Cunningham run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 10Similar
Q3 3:30
4TH & 21
OWN 10
+10
16.5%
Logan Lupo punt for 42 yds , Mark Pope returns for 10 yds to the Lvile 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20FG
9 plays · 37 yds · 2:5086% → 90%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
14.0%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 1 yd to the Lvile 41Similar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+15
13.8%
King, D'Eriq pass incomplete to Pope, Mark, PENALTY LOUISVILLE pass interference (Jones, Chandler) 15 yards to the LOUISVILLE26, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMI.Similar
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
12.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 3 yds to the Lvile 23Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+3
12.6%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 3 yds to the Lvile 20Similar
Q3 2:01
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+18
12.5%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mark Pope for 18 yds to the Lvile 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
12.1%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 1 yd to the Lvile 1Similar
Q3 1:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
12.0%
D'Eriq King run for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 5Similar
Q3 0:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
12.0%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Mike HarleySimilar
Q3 0:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
9.6%
Jose Borregales 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 8 yds · 1:3812% → 9%
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
12.0%
Javian Hawkins run for 2 yds to the Lvile 24Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+9
11.8%
Javian Hawkins run for 9 yds to the Lvile 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-15
12.2%
Cunningham, Malik pass incomplete, PENALTY LOUISVILLE personal foul (Hawkins, Javian) 15 yards to the LOUISVILLE18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 25
OWN 18
+17
11.6%
Javian Hawkins run for 17 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
11.8%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Tutu AtwellSimilar
Q4 14:12
3RD & 8
OWN 35
-5
11.5%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Dez Fitzpatrick) to the Lvile 30Similar
Q4 14:11
3RD & 13
OWN 30
0
9.7%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:56
4TH & 13
OWN 30
0
9.0%
Logan Lupo punt for 31 yds, downed at the MiaFl 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 22FG
10 plays · 38 yds · 2:5792% → 97%
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
7.8%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Dee WigginsSimilar
Q4 13:48
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+14
7.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 14 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
7.0%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 2 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+10
7.0%
King, D'Eriq pass incomplete to Mallory, Will, PENALTY LOUISVILLE holding (Montgomery, Monty) 10 yards to the LOUISVILLE35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMI.Similar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
6.8%
Jaylan Knighton run for no gain to the Lvile 35Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+10
6.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mark Pope for 10 yds to the Lvile 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
6.2%
Jaylan Knighton run for 2 yds to the Lvile 23Similar
Q4 11:14
2ND & 8
OPP 23
0
5.9%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Mark PopeSimilar
Q4 11:09
3RD & 8
OPP 23
0
6.0%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Mark PopeSimilar
Q4 10:58
4TH & 8
OPP 23
+40
2.9%
Jose Borregales 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 23TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:533% → 15%
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
3.0%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 6 yds to the Lvile 31Similar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
3.0%
Javian Hawkins run for 2 yds to the Lvile 33Similar
Q4 9:57
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
3.0%
Malik Cunningham run for no gain to the Lvile 33Similar
Q4 9:24
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+5
2.8%
Javian Hawkins run for 5 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+33
2.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 33 yds to the MiaFl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+20
3.2%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ean Pfeifer for 20 yds to the MiaFl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
3.1%
Javian Hawkins run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 4Similar
Q4 7:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
15.1%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 4 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 24TD
5 plays · 45 yds · 1:4294% → 99%
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
6.4%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 1 yd to the Lvile 44Similar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 9
OPP 44
-5
5.9%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Delay of Game (D'Eriq King) to the Lvile 49Similar
Q4 6:01
2ND & 14
OPP 49
+2
6.0%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 2 yds to the Lvile 47Similar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 12
OPP 47
+47
1.2%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 47 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 25TD
9 plays · 87 yds · 3:061% → 9%
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
1.4%
Aidan Robbins run for 4 yds to the Lvile 17Similar
Q4 4:51
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+10
1.3%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 10 yds to the Lvile 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
1.3%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 5 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+36
1.3%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Braden Smith for 36 yds to the MiaFl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
1.5%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+2
1.5%
Aidan Robbins run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q4 2:41
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+11
1.4%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 11 yds to the MiaFl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
8.5%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 19 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 26FUMBLE
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:016% → 5%
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
6.0%
Javian Hawkins run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 3
OPP 47
0
5.8%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:32
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+3
5.4%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 3 yds to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-16
5.3%
Malik Cunningham sacked by Zach McCloud for a loss of 16 yards to the Lvile 40 Malik Cunningham fumbled, forced by Zach McCloud, recovered by MiaFl Zach McCloud , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 27Uncategorized
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
2.7%
Robert Burns run for 1 yd to the Lvile 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:02
D'Eriq King pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for 75 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK)
-18.6
TD · Q3 5:13
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 6 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)
+18
TD · Q3 11:15
Cam'Ron Harris run for 75 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK)
-14.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com