2020 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2020 · Wallace Wade Stadium
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Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadBC aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreBC score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:25 · 98-P.Wilson punts 47 yards from DUK 34. 23-T.Levy to BC 19 for no gain (16-J.Stinson).
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsOne-score gameScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 7:55: 26-D.Bailey runs 1 yard for a touchdown. — BC win probability +2.5 pts (now 44%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
- TD · Q1 3:10: 21-M.Durant runs 49 yards for a touchdown. — DUKE win probability +3.4 pts (now 59%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
- TD · Q4 6:38: 5-P.Jurkovec complete to 86-R.Marten. 86-R.Marten runs 7 yards for a touchdown. Penalty on BC 72-A.Lindstrom, Personal Foul, 15 yards, enforced at DUK 7. No Play. — BC win probability +4.6 pts (now 65%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 4:54: TV timeout at 04:54. — DUKE win probability +8.3 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 3:36: 26-D.Bailey to BC 50 for 1 yard (35-D.Mausi,94-R.Oben). — BC win probability +22.5 pts (now 65%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 5BC made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 13:25DUKE 4th & 1 at DUKE 34, tiedClose callPunted · 60.7% before the snapGo for it60.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.7%−0.1average punt
- Q1 8:10BC 4th & 1 at DUKE 4, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call39.7%65% to convertField goal39.3%−0.493% to makePunt38.2%−1.5average punt
- Q1 7:06DUKE 4th & 7 at DUKE 24, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.2% before the snapGo for it57.1%−0.235% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.4%average punt
- Q2 9:48BC 4th & 1 at DUKE 49, up 1Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call43.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt41.9%−1.2average punt
- Q2 0:24BC 4th & 18 at BC 45, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.2% before the snapGo for it42.8%−1.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.0%average punt
- Q3 12:26BC 4th & 4 at BC 44, up 1Close callPunted · 46.1% before the snapGo for it46.8%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 4:30DUKE 4th & 2 at BC 17, down 1Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 56.3% before the snapGo for it56.1%56% to convertField goalTheir call54.3%−1.880% to makePunt42.7%−13.4average punt
- Q3 1:44DUKE 4th & 8 at DUKE 23, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.9% before the snapGo for it47.6%−3.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call50.8%average punt
- Q4 14:57DUKE 4th & 4 at BC 33, down 1Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call54.1%48% to convertField goal51.9%−2.249% to makePunt49.6%−4.5average punt
- Q4 4:57BC 4th & 12 at DUKE 12, up 1Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.1% before the snapGo for it50.5%−6.119% to convertField goalTheir call56.6%86% to makePunt31.2%−25.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 7:55BC Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call41.1%97% to makeGo for two41.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartDUKEDrive 1PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3559% → 59%
Q1 13:25
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+47
59.0%
98-P.Wilson punts 47 yards from DUK 34. 23-T.Levy to BC 19 for no gain (16-J.Stinson).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 2TD11 plays · 81 yds · 5:2141% → 44%
DUKEDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:3656% → 56%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4TD8 plays · 84 yds · 2:5456% → 59%
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
55.6%
8-C.Brice complete to 19-J.Bobo. 19-J.Bobo to DUK 25 for 9 yards (21-J.DeBerry).Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+6
55.4%
8-C.Brice complete to 85-D.Philyaw-Johnson. 85-D.Philyaw-Johnson to DUK 37 for 6 yards (55-I.McDuffie,20-E.Jones).Similar
Q1 4:24
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+6
55.4%
8-C.Brice complete to 19-J.Bobo. 19-J.Bobo to DUK 43 for 6 yards (21-J.DeBerry).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5INT12 plays · 36 yds · 3:4158% → 59%
Q1 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
58.4%
8-C.Brice complete to 21-M.Durant. 21-M.Durant to DUK 41 for 4 yards (21-J.DeBerry,14-M.Richardson).Similar
Q2 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
59.4%
8-C.Brice complete to 3-D.Harding. 3-D.Harding to BC 43 for 8 yards.Similar
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
59.7%
8-C.Brice complete to 6-E.Pancol. 6-E.Pancol to BC 31 for 8 yards (11-S.Sillah).Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 15
OPP 27
-23
59.4%
8-C.Brice incomplete. INTERCEPTED by 55-I.McDuffie at BC 19. 55-I.McDuffie to BC 42 for 23 yards (71-M.McIntyre,4-D.Jackson).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 6DOWNS4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0145% → 44%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7FUMBLE6 plays · 48 yds · 0:5560% → 61%
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+24
59.7%
8-C.Brice complete to 87-N.Gray. 87-N.Gray to BC 27 for 24 yards (14-M.Richardson).Similar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+16
60.8%
8-C.Brice complete to 85-D.Philyaw-Johnson. 85-D.Philyaw-Johnson pushed ob at BC 11 for 16 yards (18-M.Palmer).Similar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
60.9%
8-C.Brice incomplete. Intended for 14-D.Smith. Penalty on BC 21-J.DeBerry, Pass interference, 7 yards, enforced at BC 11. No Play.Similar
Q2 8:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
60.9%
4-D.Jackson to BC 3, FUMBLES (93-C.Onwuka). 97-M.Valdez to BC 3 for no gain.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 8PUNT12 plays · 7 yds · 4:1044% → 44%
Q2 7:57
3RD & 8
OWN 5
+9
56.3%
5-P.Jurkovec complete to 82-E.Williams. 82-E.Williams to BC 14 for 9 yards.Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+18
55.0%
5-P.Jurkovec complete to 80-H.Long. 80-H.Long to BC 32 for 18 yards.Similar
Q2 5:14
3RD & 19
OWN 23
-12
55.5%
5-P.Jurkovec sacked at BC 11 for -12 yards, FUMBLES (51-V.Dimukeje). 77-Z.Johnson to BC 10 for no gain.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 9PUNT9 plays · 13 yds · 2:1147% → 45%
Q2 2:00
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+7
52.9%
5-P.Jurkovec complete to 4-Z.Flowers. 4-Z.Flowers to BC 41 for 7 yards (28-M.Gilbert).Similar
Q2 1:35
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+2
51.1%
5-P.Jurkovec complete to 80-H.Long. 80-H.Long to BC 43 for 2 yards (9-J.Woods).Similar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-3
50.0%
5-P.Jurkovec sacked at DUK 50 for -3 yards (51-V.Dimukeje,86-D.Jordan).Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 13
OPP 0
-5
49.4%
5-P.Jurkovec sacked at BC 45 for -5 yards (51-V.Dimukeje,86-D.Jordan).Similar
Q2 0:24
4TH & 18
OWN 45
+38
54.7%
95-G.Carlson punts 38 yards from BC 45 to DUK 17, fair catch by 31-J.Blackwell.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 10PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 2:3447% → 47%
DUKEDrive 11FUMBLE4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4154% → 52%
Q3 11:38
3RD & 11
OWN 7
+12
52.3%
8-C.Brice complete to 85-D.Philyaw-Johnson. 85-D.Philyaw-Johnson to DUK 12, FUMBLES (21-J.DeBerry). 21-J.DeBerry to DUK 12 for no gain.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12MISSED FG12 plays · 52 yds · 4:4954% → 55%
Q3 8:25
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+14
53.4%
8-C.Brice complete to 87-N.Gray. 87-N.Gray to DUK 43 for 14 yards (11-S.Sillah).Similar
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
57.3%
8-C.Brice complete to 87-N.Gray. 87-N.Gray to DUK 47 for 4 yards (5-D.Jones).Similar
Q3 6:39
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+13
57.4%
8-C.Brice complete to 19-J.Bobo. 19-J.Bobo to BC 25 for 13 yards (18-M.Palmer).Similar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
60.1%
8-C.Brice complete to 4-D.Jackson. 4-D.Jackson to BC 18 for 7 yards (11-S.Sillah).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 13TD4 plays · 80 yds · 1:3749% → 55%
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+27
51.3%
5-P.Jurkovec complete to 4-Z.Flowers. 4-Z.Flowers runs ob at BC 47 for 27 yards.Similar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+17
47.8%
5-P.Jurkovec complete to 80-H.Long. 80-H.Long to DUK 36 for 17 yards. Penalty on DUK 0-M.Waters, Pass interference, declined.Similar
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+27
47.1%
5-P.Jurkovec complete to 4-Z.Flowers. 4-Z.Flowers to DUK 9 for 27 yards (37-D.Blackwell).Similar
Q3 2:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
45.2%
5-P.Jurkovec complete to 80-H.Long. 80-H.Long runs 9 yards for a touchdown.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5053% → 48%
Q3 1:44
4TH & 8
OWN 23
+38
47.8%
98-P.Wilson punts 38 yards from DUK 23, out of bounds at the BC 39.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 15TD1 play · 61 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+61
48.1%
5-P.Jurkovec complete to 4-Z.Flowers. 4-Z.Flowers runs 61 yards for a touchdown.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16FUMBLE14 plays · 61 yds · 2:4951% → 56%
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
51.2%
8-C.Brice complete to 14-D.Smith. 14-D.Smith to DUK 47 for 22 yards (5-D.Jones).Similar
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
55.6%
8-C.Brice complete to 5-J.Calhoun. 5-J.Calhoun to BC 50 for 3 yards (3-J.Maitre).Similar
Q3 0:36
3RD & 7
OPP 0
+11
55.7%
8-C.Brice complete to 14-D.Smith. 14-D.Smith to BC 39 for 11 yards (20-E.Jones).Similar
Q4 14:57
4TH & 4
OPP 33
+13
52.7%
8-C.Brice complete to 87-N.Gray. 87-N.Gray to BC 20 for 13 yards (8-J.Muse).Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+13
57.9%
8-C.Brice complete to 19-J.Bobo. 19-J.Bobo to BC 7 for 13 yards (10-B.Sebastian).Similar
Q4 13:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-8
55.5%
8-C.Brice sacked at BC 10 for -8 yards, FUMBLES (5-D.Jones). 5-D.Jones to BC 14 for no gain.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 17FG16 plays · 67 yds · 8:3151% → 60%
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-3
48.8%
5-P.Jurkovec complete to 1-J.Gill. 1-J.Gill to BC 11 for -3 yards (26-M.Carter).Similar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 13
OWN 11
+13
49.2%
5-P.Jurkovec complete to 80-H.Long. 80-H.Long to BC 24 for 13 yards (29-N.Thompson).Similar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
46.5%
5-P.Jurkovec complete to 80-H.Long. 80-H.Long to BC 32 for -2 yards (0-M.Waters).Similar
Q4 9:29
3RD & 11
OWN 33
+15
48.0%
5-P.Jurkovec complete to 11-C.Lewis. 11-C.Lewis to BC 48 for 15 yards.Similar
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
41.9%
26-D.Bailey to DUK 42 for 10 yards (26-M.Carter,31-J.Blackwell).Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+36
39.2%
5-P.Jurkovec complete to 80-H.Long. 80-H.Long to DUK 7 for 36 yards.Similar
Q4 6:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
34.6%
5-P.Jurkovec complete to 86-R.Marten. 86-R.Marten runs 7 yards for a touchdown. Penalty on BC 72-A.Lindstrom, Personal Foul, 15 yards, enforced at DUK 7. No Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 18INT7 plays · 42 yds · 1:0549% → 57%
Q4 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
48.5%
8-C.Brice complete to 19-J.Bobo. 19-J.Bobo to DUK 34 for 9 yards (10-B.Sebastian).Similar
Q4 4:06
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+11
54.9%
8-C.Brice complete to 3-D.Harding. 3-D.Harding to BC 33 for 11 yards (10-B.Sebastian).Similar
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-38
57.3%
8-C.Brice incomplete. INTERCEPTED by 8-J.Muse at BC 11. 8-J.Muse to BC 49 for 38 yards (4-D.Jackson).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 19END OF GAME5 plays · 21 yds · 2:5765% → 84%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 3:36
26-D.Bailey to BC 50 for 1 yard (35-D.Mausi,94-R.Oben).
-22.5
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-16.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 4:54
TV timeout at 04:54.
+8.3