2020 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2020 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadWKU aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreWKU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · TEAM run for a loss of 17 yards to the Lvile 1 TEAM fumbled, recovered by WKent Omari Alexander
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 9:21: Javian Hawkins run for 19 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +4.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:42: Micale Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 2 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +6.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:23: Malik Staples run for 1 yd for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK) — WKU win probability +7.8 pts (now 13%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:58: Micale Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 70 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK) WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined — LOU win probability +6.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:40: Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 12 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK) — WKU win probability +2.9 pts (now 4%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7WKU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 15:00LOU 4th & 17 at LOU 18, tiedClose callWent for it · 81.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call81.0%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt81.1%average punt
- Q1 8:55WKU 4th & 4 at WKU 44, tiedClose callPunted · 20.7% before the snapGo for it20.8%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 5:51LOU 4th & 10 at LOU 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 77.9% before the snapGo for it77.8%−0.328% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call78.1%average punt
- Q2 14:54WKU 4th & 2 at WKU 17, down 7Close callPunted · 19.2% before the snapGo for it19.4%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.2%−0.2average punt
- Q2 9:21WKU 4th & 10 at LOU 48, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snapGo for it14.8%−0.629% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.3%average punt
- Q2 6:34LOU 4th & 1 at WKU 9, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call85.7%71% to convertField goal84.1%−1.789% to makePunt80.0%−5.7average punt
- Q3 15:00WKU 4th & 7 at WKU 39, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snapGo for it5.8%−0.337% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.0%average punt
- Q3 12:30LOU 4th & 7 at LOU 27, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.1% before the snapGo for it95.2%−0.336% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.5%average punt
- Q3 5:58WKU 4th & 10 at LOU 37, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.5%30% to convertField goal3.5%−<0.140% to makePunt3.4%−0.1average punt
- Q3 5:53LOU 4th & 11 at WKU 34, up 21Close callWent for it · 96.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.4%−0.127% to convertField goal96.6%47% to makePunt96.3%−0.2average punt
- Q3 4:10WKU 4th & 5 at WKU 28, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snapGo for it2.8%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.0%average punt
- Q3 2:38LOU 4th & 11 at LOU 24, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.3% before the snapGo for it97.1%−0.625% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.7%average punt
- Q4 15:00WKU 4th & 3 at LOU 3, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.4%44% to convertField goal2.0%−0.593% to makePunt-0.5%−3.0average punt
- Q4 12:05LOU 4th & 7 at LOU 6, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.6% before the snapGo for it98.3%−0.233% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.6%average punt
- Q4 10:16WKU 4th & 1 at LOU 11, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.2%71% to convertField goal1.1%−0.187% to makePunt-0.4%−1.7average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5WKU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 12:53WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call19.9%97% to makeGo for two19.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 10:57LOU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.0%97% to makeGo for two80.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:54LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.6%97% to makeGo for two79.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:21LOU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.3%97% to makeGo for two85.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:42LOU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.3%97% to makeGo for two95.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:23WKU Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call10.7%97% to makeGo for two10.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:58LOU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.8%97% to makeGo for two96.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:40WKU Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call3.3%97% to makeGo for two3.3%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartLOUDrive 1FUMBLE6 plays · -24 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
WKUDrive 2TD1 play · 1 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3TD5 plays · 92 yds · 1:5685% → 85%
WKUDrive 4PUNT9 plays · 19 yds · 2:0216% → 16%
Q1 8:55
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
83.8%
John Haggerty punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Rodjay Burns at the Lvile 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 1:3383% → 83%
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+8
83.4%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 8 yds to the Lvile 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 6FUMBLE4 plays · 62 yds · 0:0017% → 18%
Q1 5:37
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+11
83.1%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 11 yds to the WKent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+50
82.5%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 50 yds Jahcour Pearson fumbled, forced by Russ Yeast, recovered by Lvile Russ Yeast , return for 4 yds to the Lvile 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7TD10 plays · 93 yds · 4:1483% → 85%
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-4
82.8%
Micale Cunningham sacked by DeAngelo Malone for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 3 Micale Cunningham fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 4:08
3RD & 16
OWN 1
+48
82.5%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Braden Smith for 48 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+16
83.4%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 16 yds to the WKent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:08
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+18
83.5%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 18 yds to the WKent 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
LOUDrive 9TD7 plays · 65 yds · 3:0485% → 90%
WKUDrive 10PUNT8 plays · 27 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
LOUDrive 11TD13 plays · 87 yds · 5:5289% → 97%
Q2 6:34
3RD & 7
OWN 16
+8
88.6%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 8 yds to the Lvile 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
88.9%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 3 yds to the Lvile 27Similar
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
89.6%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Braden Smith for 3 yds to the WKent 15Similar
Q2 6:34
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+1
89.3%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 1 yd to the WKent 9Similar
Q2 0:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.5%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 2 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 12END OF HALF2 plays · 3 yds · 0:005% → 5%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 13PUNT9 plays · 12 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 22
-1
95.1%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 21Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 21
+15
95.2%
PIGROME, T. pass incomplete to BURT JR, C., PENALTY LOU pass interference (Johnson, A.) 15 yards to the WKU36, 1ST DOWN WKU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 31
0
95.0%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Mitchell Tinsley, broken up by Kei'Trel ClarkSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+8
95.1%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Craig Burt Jr. for 8 yds to the WKent 39Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
94.8%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Jahcour Pearson, broken up by Rodjay BurnsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 15 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+12
96.3%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 12 yds to the Lvile 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 15TD2 plays · 4 yds · 0:395% → 13%
LOUDrive 16TD4 plays · 85 yds · 1:2590% → 97%
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
90.3%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 6 yds to the Lvile 21Similar
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+70
96.9%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 70 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK) WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 17DOWNS10 plays · 24 yds · 3:004% → 3%
Q3 8:58
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+19
96.3%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 19 yds to the Lvile 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-3
96.2%
Tyrrell Pigrome sacked by Monty Montgomery for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 40Similar
Q3 5:58
4TH & 10
OPP 37
-14
96.9%
Tyrrell Pigrome sacked by Monty Montgomery for a loss of 14 yards to the WKent 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18INT5 plays · 15 yds · 0:0098% → 97%
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+16
97.6%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 16 yds to the WKent 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 9
OPP 32
-2
97.7%
Javian Hawkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the WKent 34 LOUISVILLE Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 5:53
4TH & 11
OPP 34
0
97.3%
Micale Cunningham pass intercepted Omari Alexander return for no gain to the WKent 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:003% → 2%
LOUDrive 20PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 2:38
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-4
98.1%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Braden Smith for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 21DOWNS10 plays · 56 yds · 1:052% → 2%
LOUDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 12:05
4TH & 7
OWN 6
0
98.9%
Logan Lupo punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Dayton Wade at the Lvile 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 23TD9 plays · 37 yds · 4:361% → 4%
Q4 5:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
95.8%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 12 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 24END OF GAME13 plays · 37 yds · 0:0097% → 98%
Q4 5:40
3RD & 13
OPP 47
+5
97.2%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the WKent 42Similar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+14
97.3%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Justin Marshall for 14 yds to the WKent 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
97.5%
Micale Cunningham run for a loss of 5 yards to the WKent 8 WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, personal foul (Beanie Bishop) to the WKent 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:23
Malik Staples run for 1 yd for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)
-7.8
TD · Q2 0:42
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 2 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)
+6.9
TD · Q3 8:58
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 70 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK) WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined
+6.5