2020 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2020 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · WAKE
modelWAKE aheadCLEM aheadconfidence bandkey playWAKE scoreCLEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:21 · Nick Sciba 39 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 1:21: J.C. Chalk 12 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (B.T. Potter Kick) — CLEM win probability +0.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:00: B.T. Potter 52 Yd Field Goal — CLEM win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- FG · Q3 13:21: Nick Sciba 39 Yd Field Goal — WAKE win probability +1.6 pts (now 3%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:38: Travis Etienne 2 Yd Run (B.T. Potter Kick) — CLEM win probability +0.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 2:34: Taylor Morin 1 Yd pass from Mitch Griffis (Nick Sciba Kick) — WAKE win probability +0.9 pts (now 1%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WAKE made the numbers' call on 8 of 11CLEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
- Q1 13:50CLEM 4th & 22 at CLEM 13, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 97.2% before the snapGo for it97.1%−0.27% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.3%average punt
- Q1 11:31WAKE 4th & 13 at CLEM 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snapGo for it3.2%−0.121% to convertField goal3.2%−<0.134% to makePuntTheir call3.3%average punt
- Q1 5:52WAKE 4th & 2 at WAKE 46, down 7Close callPunted · 4.1% before the snapGo for it4.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.1%−0.1average punt
- Q1 0:08WAKE 4th & 1 at CLEM 26, down 14Close callKicked a field goal · 4.5% before the snapGo for it4.5%71% to convertField goalTheir call4.2%−0.264% to makePunt3.6%−0.8average punt
- Q2 10:54CLEM 4th & 3 at WAKE 25, up 14Close callKicked a field goal · 95.5% before the snapGo for it95.5%52% to convertField goalTheir call95.4%−0.266% to makePunt94.2%−1.3average punt
- Q2 9:17WAKE 4th & 1 at WAKE 34, down 17Close callPunted · 4.4% before the snapGo for it4.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.3%−0.2average punt
- Q2 7:15CLEM 4th & 6 at WAKE 42, up 17Close callPunted · 95.9% before the snapGo for it95.9%40% to convertField goal95.7%−0.330% to makePuntTheir call95.8%−0.1average punt
- Q2 5:22WAKE 4th & 10 at WAKE 32, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snapGo for it4.6%−0.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.8%average punt
- Q2 0:49WAKE 4th & 5 at WAKE 30, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snapGo for it2.8%−0.341% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.1%average punt
- Q3 13:21WAKE 4th & 11 at CLEM 21, down 27Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.425% to convertField goalTheir call0.8%74% to makePunt-0.8%−1.7average punt
- Q3 7:18WAKE 4th & 3 at CLEM 24, down 31Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.9%52% to convertField goal0.8%−<0.168% to makePunt0.5%−0.4average punt
- Q3 3:14CLEM 4th & 12 at WAKE 12, up 31Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.1%−0.119% to convertField goalTheir call99.2%86% to makePunt98.7%−0.5average punt
- Q3 1:41WAKE 4th & 13 at WAKE 37, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.120% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q4 13:43CLEM 4th & 7 at WAKE 46, up 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.7%−<0.137% to convertField goal99.6%−0.123% to makePuntTheir call99.7%average punt
- Q4 11:04WAKE 4th & 7 at CLEM 13, down 34Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.134% to convertField goalTheir call0.2%85% to makePunt-0.1%−0.3average punt
- Q4 9:08CLEM 4th & 2 at CLEM 28, up 34Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 7:20WAKE 4th & 14 at CLEM 24, down 34Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.118% to convertField goalTheir call0.2%68% to makePunt-0.0%−0.2average punt
- Q4 0:54CLEM 4th & 3 at CLEM 32, up 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snapGo for it99.4%−0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.5%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WAKE made the numbers' call on 1 of 1CLEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 8:02CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.2%97% to makeGo for two96.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:31CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.9%97% to makeGo for two95.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:21CLEM Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.8%97% to makeGo for two96.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:38CLEM Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.0%97% to makeGo for two99.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:34WAKE Touchdown, down 25 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.6%97% to makeGo for two0.4%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLEMDrive 1PUNT5 plays · -12 yds · 1:0399% → 98%
WAKEDrive 2PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 2:102% → 2%
Q1 13:19
2ND & 9
OWN 44
-9
1.7%
Sam Hartman sacked by K.J. Henry for a loss of 9 yards to the WFrst 35Similar
Q1 13:02
3RD & 18
OWN 35
+28
1.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 28 yds to the Clem 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:11
3RD & 6
OPP 33
-7
1.9%
Sam Hartman sacked by Bryan Bresee for a loss of 7 yards to the Clem 40Similar
Q1 11:31
4TH & 13
OPP 40
0
2.0%
Ivan Mora punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Amari Rodgers at the Clem 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 3TD9 plays · 92 yds · 3:2298% → 98%
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+36
2.0%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 36 yds to the Clem 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+17
2.0%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 17 yds to the WFrst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+5
2.1%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Braden Galloway for 5 yds to the WFrst 30Similar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
2.3%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 2 yds to the WFrst 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 4PUNT7 plays · 21 yds · 2:042% → 3%
Q1 6:38
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+5
2.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 5 yds to the WFrst 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 5TD11 plays · 80 yds · 3:1497% → 98%
WAKEDrive 6MISSED FG8 plays · 49 yds · 2:153% → 3%
CLEMDrive 7FG11 plays · 49 yds · 4:0797% → 98%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
2.7%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Cornell Powell for 9 yds to the Clem 35Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 1
OWN 35
0
2.7%
Trevor Lawrence pass incomplete to Braden Galloway, broken up by Carlos Basham Jr.Similar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+19
2.8%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Braden Galloway for 19 yds to the WFrst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 7
OPP 29
-5
2.8%
Lawrence, Trevor pass complete to Rodgers, Amari for 12 yards to the WAKEFOREST17, PENALTY CLEMSON illegal formation 5 yards to the WAKEFOREST34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:25
3RD & 16
OPP 38
+13
3.0%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Joseph Ngata for 13 yds to the WFrst 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:313% → 3%
CLEMDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 1:5598% → 97%
WAKEDrive 10PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 1:413% → 3%
CLEMDrive 11TD11 plays · 91 yds · 3:5597% → 98%
Q2 4:40
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+14
3.1%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 14 yds to the Clem 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
3.0%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Frank Ladson Jr. for 21 yds to the Clem 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+16
2.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Brannon Spector for 16 yds to the WFrst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:43
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+16
3.0%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Joseph Ngata for 16 yds to the WFrst 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 12PUNT7 plays · 5 yds · 0:253% → 3%
Q2 1:02
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+8
3.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 8 yds to the WFrst 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 13END OF HALF7 plays · 31 yds · 0:3798% → 99%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-6
2.3%
Trevor Lawrence sacked by Miles Fox for a loss of 6 yards to the Clem 28Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 16
OWN 28
+26
2.3%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Travis Etienne for 26 yds to the WFrst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+5
2.0%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Braden Galloway for 5 yds to the WFrst 41Similar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+6
2.0%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Braden Galloway for 6 yds to the WFrst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 14FG8 plays · 54 yds · 1:341% → 3%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
1.3%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Nolan Groulx, broken up by Andrew Booth Jr.Similar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
1.2%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Brandon Chapman, broken up by James SkalskiSimilar
Q3 14:39
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+55
1.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 55 yds to the Clem 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 15TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3898% → 99%
Q3 12:48
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+21
1.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 21 yds to the WFrst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+19
1.7%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Joseph Ngata for 19 yds to the WFrst 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
1.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Travis Etienne for 8 yds to the WFrst 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 16DOWNS10 plays · 52 yds · 3:132% → 1%
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
1.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 8 yds to the WFrst 33Similar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
1.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 8 yds to the Clem 47Similar
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
1.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 11 yds to the Clem 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-6
1.7%
Sam Hartman sacked by Myles Murphy for a loss of 6 yards to the Clem 37Similar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 16
OPP 37
+14
1.0%
Michael Kern pass complete to Taylor Morin for 14 yds to the Clem 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 17FG9 plays · 65 yds · 3:5499% → 100%
Q3 6:35
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+42
1.1%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Davis Allen for 42 yds to the WFrst 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 18PUNT8 plays · 7 yds · 1:221% → 0%
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
0.8%
Michael Kern pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for no gain to the WFrst 30Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+10
0.7%
Kern, Michael pass incomplete to Groulx, Nolan (Davis II, Fred), PENALTY CLEMSON holding (Williams, LeAnthony) 10 yards to the WAKEFOREST40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WAKEFOREST.Similar
Q3 1:49
4TH & 7
OWN 43
-6
0.4%
Mora, Ivan punt 45 yards to the CLEMSON12, downed, PENALTY WAKEFOREST illegal formation 6 yards to the WAKEFOREST37, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 19PUNT8 plays · 27 yds · 2:47100% → 100%
Q3 1:01
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+10
0.3%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Will Brown for 10 yds to the Clem 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-9
0.3%
Demarkcus Bowman run for 1 yd to the Clem 48 CLEMSON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Paul Tchio) to the Clem 42Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 13
OWN 48
+6
0.3%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Ajou Ajou for 6 yds to the WFrst 46Similar
Q4 13:43
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
0.3%
Will Spiers punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WFrst 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 20MISSED FG9 plays · 69 yds · 2:300% → 0%
Q4 13:30
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+7
0.2%
Michael Kern pass complete to A.T. Perry for 7 yds to the WFrst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
0.2%
Michael Kern pass complete to Brandon Chapman for 8 yds to the WFrst 40Similar
Q4 12:31
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+27
0.2%
Mitch Griffis pass complete to Taylor Morin for 27 yds to the Clem 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+17
0.2%
Michael Kern pass complete to A.T. Perry for 17 yds to the Clem 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:09
3RD & 7
OPP 13
0
0.2%
Michael Kern pass incomplete to Jaquarii Roberson, broken up by Malcolm GreeneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:50100% → 100%
Q4 9:08
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+15
0.2%
Bubba McAtee punt for 44 yds , Taylor Morin returns for 15 yds to the WFrst 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 22FG6 plays · 33 yds · 1:420% → 0%
CLEMDrive 23INT6 plays · 16 yds · 2:02100% → 100%
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
0.2%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Will Swinney for 3 yds to the Clem 18Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+6
0.2%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to E.J. Williams for 6 yds to the Clem 24Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 7
OWN 31
-5
0.2%
Taisun Phommachanh pass intercepted AJ Williams return for 5 yds to the Clem 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 24TD10 plays · 30 yds · 2:250% → 1%
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
0.2%
Mitch Griffis pass incomplete to Donald Stewart, broken up by Keith MaguireSimilar
Q4 4:57
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-3
0.2%
Mitch Griffis sacked by Regan Upshaw for a loss of 3 yards to the Clem 33Similar
Q4 4:15
3RD & 13
OPP 29
+19
0.1%
Justice Ellison run for 4 yds to the Clem 29 for a 1ST down CLEMSON Penalty, Personal Foul (Malcolm Greene) to the Clem 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:19
4TH & 14
OPP 18
+15
0.1%
Griffis, Mitch pass incomplete to Stewart, Donald (Davis II, Fred), PENALTY CLEMSON pass interference (Davis II, Fred) 15 yards to the CLEMSON3, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WAKEFOREST.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 25PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 1:3399% → 100%
Q4 0:54
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+11
0.3%
Will Spiers punt for 45 yds , Taylor Morin returns for 11 yds to the WFrst 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 26Uncategorized1 play · 3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q3 13:21
Nick Sciba 39 Yd Field Goal
+1.6
TD · Q4 2:34
Taylor Morin 1 Yd pass from Mitch Griffis (Nick Sciba Kick)
+0.9
TD · Q3 10:38
Travis Etienne 2 Yd Run (B.T. Potter Kick)
-0.8