Try the model
HCU

Houston Christian 38 at Louisiana Tech 66

LT
2020 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2020 · Joe Aillet Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · LT
modelLT aheadHCU aheadconfidence bandkey playLT scoreHCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-0.1LT 93.7%Jacob Barnes 51 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 3 · Q1 11:59
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:59 · Jacob Barnes 51 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 13Pregame prior+43.1Home team on offense+0.2Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Blowout margin−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:42: Bailey Zappe pass complete to Ben Ratzlaff for 6 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK) — HCU win probability +2.3 pts (now 10%) (top driver: HCU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:01: Justin Henderson run for 3 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +2.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:24: Luke Anthony pass complete to Isaiah Graham for 15 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +1.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:48: Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 2 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK) — HCU win probability +5.2 pts (now 9%) (top driver: HCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:50: Luke Anthony pass complete to Jawaun Johnson for 41 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +3.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5HCU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00LT 4th & 8 at LT 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:59LT 4th & 10 at HCU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.2%
    49% to make
    Punt
    92.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00HCU 4th & 5 at HCU 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:01HCU 4th & 3 at HCU 32, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:51LT 4th & 5 at LT 47, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:39HCU 4th & 11 at HCU 30, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:15HCU 4th & 20 at LT 25, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−0.6
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    2.5%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00HCU 4th & 19 at HCU 27, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%−0.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:50HCU 4th & 1 at HCU 35, down 21
    Close callPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:39LT 4th & 1 at HCU 1, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    97.4%−0.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    96.0%−2.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:25LT 4th & 1 at LT 49, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    98.6%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:52HCU 4th & 10 at LT 13, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    85% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LT made the numbers' call on 9 of 9HCU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 8:29HCU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:24LT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:42HCU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:49LT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 13:34LT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 12:01LT Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 3:24LT Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 9:48HCU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 7:50LT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 2:39LT Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 13:25HCU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 8:52LT Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 5:42HCU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 1:15LT Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LTDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
94.4%
Luke Anthony run for 1 yd to the LaTch 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
94.4%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Isaiah Graham for 6 yds to the LaTch 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
94.4%
Luke Anthony pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+5
94.4%
WILLIAMS, T. punt 40 yards to the HBU28, fair catch by Sterns, Jerreth, PENALTY HBU offside 5 yards to the TECH37, 1ST DOWN TECH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
94.4%
Justin Henderson run for no gain to the LaTch 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
94.4%
Justin Henderson run for 2 yds to the LaTch 39Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
94.4%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Isaiah GrahamSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 39
-2
94.4%
Jacob Barnes punt for 29 yds , Jerreth Sterns returns for a loss of 2 yards to the HstnB 33 Jerreth Sterns fumbled, recovered by LaTch Cam WrightSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2394% → 94%
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
93.9%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Justin Henderson, broken up by Patrick WolfeSimilar
Q1 12:22
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
93.9%
Luke Anthony pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:22
3RD & 10
OPP 33
0
93.8%
Luke Anthony pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:59
4TH & 10
OPP 33
+51
93.7%
Jacob Barnes 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 3TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:306% → 8%
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
93.8%
Jaelon Woods run for 5 yds to the HstnB 30Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
93.7%
HOUSTON BAPTIST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the HstnB 25Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
93.8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Ean Beek for 5 yds to the HstnB 30Similar
Q1 11:59
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+39
93.8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Josh Sterns for 39 yds to the LaTch 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
93.7%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Ben Ratzlaff for 8 yds to the LaTch 23Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 2
OPP 23
-5
93.7%
HOUSTON BAPTIST Penalty, false start (Ean Beek) to the LaTch 28Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 7
OPP 28
0
93.7%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:59
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+9
93.7%
Bailey Zappe run for 9 yds to the LaTch 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
93.7%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jerreth Sterns, broken up by Tyler GrubbsSimilar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+4
93.7%
Jaelon Woods run for 4 yds to the LaTch 15Similar
Q1 11:59
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+11
93.7%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Ben Ratzlaff for 11 yds to the LaTch 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
92.3%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 4 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0593% → 93%
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
92.5%
Justin Henderson run for 11 yds to the LaTch 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+20
92.5%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 20 yds to the HstnB 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
92.9%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Wayne Toussant for 44 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 5TD
13 plays · 82 yds · 3:427% → 10%
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
92.8%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Josh SternsSimilar
Q1 7:24
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
92.8%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jerreth SternsSimilar
Q1 7:24
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+14
92.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 14 yds to the HstnB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
92.7%
Jaelon Woods run for 8 yds to the HstnB 40Similar
Q1 7:24
2ND & 2
OWN 40
0
92.6%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jaelon WoodsSimilar
Q1 7:24
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+3
92.6%
Blaise Bentsen run for 3 yds to the HstnB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
92.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 1 yd to the HstnB 44Similar
Q1 7:24
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+21
92.6%
Ean Beek run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Gerald Wilbon) to the LaTch 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+18
92.5%
Ean Beek run for 18 yds to the LaTch 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+11
92.4%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Ben Ratzlaff for 11 yds to the LaTch 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
92.4%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
90.2%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Ben Ratzlaff for 6 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:5391% → 91%
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
90.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the LaTch 19 TEAM fumbled, recovered by LaTch Luke AnthonySimilar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+15
90.6%
ANTHONY, Luke pass incomplete to GRAHAM, Isaiah, PENALTY HBU pass interference (Cash, Isaiah) 15 yards to the TECH34, 1ST DOWN TECH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
90.7%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Smoke Harris for 6 yds to the LaTch 40Similar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 4
OWN 40
0
91.0%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Smoke Harris, broken up by Philip OssaiSimilar
Q1 3:42
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+7
90.8%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Smoke Harris for 7 yds to the LaTch 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
91.0%
Israel Tucker run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 7
50
0
91.1%
Luke Anthony pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:42
3RD & 7
50
+7
90.9%
Luke Anthony run for 7 yds to the HstnB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
91.3%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Wayne Toussant for 43 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:499% → 9%
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
90.9%
Jaelon Woods run for a loss of 1 yard to the HstnB 24Similar
Q1 0:49
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+6
90.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jaelon Woods for 6 yds to the HstnB 30Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
90.7%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jerreth SternsSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
91.0%
Blake Patterson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Smoke Harris at the LaTch 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 8TD
4 plays · 72 yds · 1:0890% → 92%
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+23
90.4%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Griffin Hebert for 23 yds to the HstnB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
90.9%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Smoke Harris, broken up by Patrick WolfeSimilar
Q2 14:42
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+34
90.9%
Justin Henderson run for 34 yds to the HstnB 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
92.4%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Isaiah Graham for 15 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 9INT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
92.1%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for no gain to the HstnB 20Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-10
92.2%
Zappe, Bailey rush for 5 yards to the HBU25 (BELL, Levi), PENALTY HBU holding (Martinez, G.) 10 yards to the HBU10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 20
OWN 10
+11
92.2%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Ean Beek for 11 yds to the HstnB 21Similar
Q2 13:34
3RD & 9
OWN 21
-27
92.3%
Bailey Zappe pass intercepted Bee Jay Williamson return for 27 yds to the HstnB 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 10TD
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 12:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
95.5%
Justin Henderson run for 3 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
94.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Ean Beek for 5 yds to the HstnB 30Similar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
94.5%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 2 yds to the HstnB 32Similar
Q2 12:01
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
94.5%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Ben RatzlaffSimilar
Q2 12:01
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
94.6%
Blake Patterson punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaTch 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:5496% → 95%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
95.5%
Israel Tucker run for no gain to the LaTch 42Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
95.5%
Luke Anthony pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:45
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+5
95.4%
ALLEN, Aaron rush for 1 yard to the TECH43 (Young, Brennan;Ijiyera, Segun), PENALTY HBU offside (Johnson, Caleb) 5 yards to the TECH47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:45
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
95.4%
Aaron Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:51
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
95.4%
Jacob Barnes punt for 22 yds, downed at the HstnB 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
94.6%
Beek, Ean rush for 3 yards to the HBU34 (WALKER, Allen), PENALTY HBU illegal formation 5 yards to the HBU26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:39
1ST & 15
OWN 26
+4
94.8%
Bailey Zappe run for 4 yds to the HstnB 30Similar
Q2 9:39
2ND & 11
OWN 30
0
94.8%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jerreth SternsSimilar
Q2 9:39
3RD & 11
OWN 30
0
94.8%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:39
4TH & 11
OWN 30
+9
94.9%
Blake Patterson punt for 50 yds , Smoke Harris returns for 9 yds to the LaTch 39 LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the LaTch 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 14TD
11 plays · 81 yds · 4:5696% → 98%
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-6
95.6%
Luke Anthony sacked by Greg Vincent for a loss of 6 yards to the LaTch 13Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 16
OWN 13
+16
95.5%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 16 yds to the LaTch 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-10
95.6%
ANTHONY, Luke pass complete to HARDY, Adrian for 16 yards to the TECH45 (Smith, Delon), PENALTY TECH holding (CAMPBELL, D.) 10 yards to the TECH19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 20
OWN 19
+24
95.5%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Griffin Hebert for 24 yds to the LaTch 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
95.7%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Adrian HardySimilar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+15
95.7%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Kyle Maxwell for 15 yds to the HstnB 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
95.7%
Justin Henderson run for 10 yds to the HstnB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
95.8%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Jawaun Johnson for 3 yds to the HstnB 29Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+14
95.8%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 14 yds to the HstnB 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
95.8%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Adrian HardySimilar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
97.7%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Isaiah Graham for 15 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 15FG
13 plays · 50 yds · 3:093% → 3%
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
97.0%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 4 yds to the HstnB 29Similar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-2
96.9%
Bailey Zappe sacked by Levi Bell for a loss of 2 yards to the HstnB 27Similar
Q2 3:24
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+21
97.0%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Ean Beek for 21 yds to the HstnB 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+26
96.8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 26 yds to the LaTch 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
96.5%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Darrion Sherfield for 4 yds to the LaTch 22Similar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+5
96.5%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Darrion Sherfield for 5 yds to the LaTch 17Similar
Q2 3:24
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+2
96.6%
Blaise Bentsen run for 2 yds to the LaTch 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
96.5%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
96.5%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Darrion SherfieldSimilar
Q2 3:24
3RD & 10
OPP 15
-10
96.7%
Zappe, Bailey pass complete to Sterns, Jerreth for 4 yards to the TECH11 (BALDWIN, Trey), PENALTY HBU holding (Burnett, R.) 10 yards to the TECH25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:24
3RD & 20
OPP 25
0
96.9%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Darrion SherfieldSimilar
Q2 0:15
4TH & 20
OPP 25
+42
97.0%
Gino Garcia 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 16END OF HALF
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
97.8%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the LaTch 33Similar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+8
97.7%
Luke Anthony run for 8 yds to the LaTch 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 2 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.0%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 5 yds to the HstnB 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
96.8%
Ean Beek run for 1 yd to the HstnB 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
96.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 5 yds to the HstnB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
96.8%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Ean Beek, broken up by Keivie RoseSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-9
96.8%
Bailey Zappe sacked by Milton Williams for a loss of 9 yards to the HstnB 27Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 27
0
97.0%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Darrion SherfieldSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 19
OWN 27
+35
97.0%
Blake Patterson punt for 39 yds , Smoke Harris returns for 35 yds to the LATECH 38 HOUSTON BAPTIST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (-15 Yards) to the HstnB 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 18INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
97.8%
Justin Henderson run for 2 yds to the HstnB 14 for a 1ST down HOUSTON BAPTIST Penalty, face mask (7 yards) (Patrick Wolfe) to the HstnB 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
97.8%
Justin Henderson run for 3 yds to the HstnB 4Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
97.8%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Adrian Hardy, broken up by Kenneth KempSimilar
Q3 12:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-45
97.8%
Luke Anthony pass intercepted Delon Smith return for 45 yds to the HstnB 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 19TD
6 plays · 55 yds · 1:563% → 9%
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-23
97.1%
Bailey Zappe sacked by Tristan Allen for a loss of 23 yards to the HstnB 22 HOUSTON BAPTIST Penalty, intentional grounding ( Yards) to the HstnB 22Similar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 33
OWN 22
+14
97.3%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 14 yds to the HstnB 36Similar
Q3 11:44
3RD & 19
OWN 36
+47
97.4%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 47 yds to the LaTch 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+13
96.7%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Tyson Thompson for 8 yds to the LaTch 9 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, personal foul (Trey Baldwin) to the LaTch 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
96.7%
Jaelon Woods run for 2 yds to the LaTch 2Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
91.5%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 2 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 20TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 1:5894% → 98%
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
93.9%
Justin Henderson run for 3 yds to the LaTch 33Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+8
93.9%
Justin Henderson run for 8 yds to the LaTch 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
94.2%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Smoke Harris for 3 yds to the LaTch 44Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+15
94.2%
ANTHONY, Luke pass incomplete to GRAHAM, Isaiah, PENALTY HBU pass interference (Fluellen, Tra) 15 yards to the HBU41, 1ST DOWN TECH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
98.1%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Jawaun Johnson for 41 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
97.7%
Ean Beek run for 3 yds to the HstnB 29Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+5
97.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Darrion Sherfield for 5 yds to the HstnB 34Similar
Q3 7:50
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+1
97.6%
Blaise Bentsen run for 1 yd to the HstnB 35Similar
Q3 7:50
4TH & 1
OWN 35
0
97.6%
Blake Patterson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Smoke Harris at the LaTch 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 22TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 3:4498% → 100%
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+19
98.0%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 19 yds to the LaTch 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+31
98.1%
Israel Tucker run for 31 yds to the HstnB 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
98.2%
Israel Tucker run for 9 yds to the HstnB 18Similar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 1
OPP 18
+5
98.2%
TUCKER, Israel rush for 4 yards to the HBU14 (Wolfe, Patrick), PENALTY HBU 12 men on the field 5 yards to the HBU13, 1ST DOWN TECH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+10
98.2%
Israel Tucker run for 10 yds to the HstnB 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
98.2%
Israel Tucker run for 1 yd to the HstnB 2Similar
Q3 6:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
98.2%
Justin Henderson run for 1 yd to the HstnB 1Similar
Q3 6:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.1%
Israel Tucker run for no gain to the HstnB 1Similar
Q3 2:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.8%
Luke Anthony run for 1 yd for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 23TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 4:140% → 1%
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.8%
Ean Beek run for 4 yds to the HstnB 29Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+12
99.8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Ben Ratzlaff for 12 yds to the HstnB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-15
99.8%
HOUSTON BAPTIST Penalty, personal foul (Dan Wilkins) to the HstnB 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
99.8%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Josh SternsSimilar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+14
99.8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Ben Ratzlaff for 14 yds to the HstnB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+14
99.8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Ben Ratzlaff for 14 yds to the LaTch 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
99.8%
Ean Beek run for 3 yds to the LaTch 43Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+3
99.8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jaelon Woods for 3 yds to the LaTch 40Similar
Q3 2:39
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+6
99.8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Darrion Sherfield for 6 yds to the LaTch 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
99.8%
Bailey Zappe run for 9 yds to the LaTch 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+3
99.8%
Jaelon Woods run for 3 yds to the LaTch 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+13
99.8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 13 yds to the LaTch 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
99.8%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Ben RatzlaffSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
99.8%
Bailey Zappe run for 8 yds to the LaTch 1Similar
Q4 13:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Ben Ratzlaff for 1 yd for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 24TD
12 plays · 60 yds · 4:3399% → 100%
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
99.1%
Israel Tucker run for 8 yds to the LaTch 48Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 2
OWN 48
0
99.1%
Aaron Allen pass incomplete to Adrian HardySimilar
Q4 13:25
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+1
99.1%
Israel Tucker run for 1 yd to the LaTch 49Similar
Q4 13:25
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+1
99.0%
Aaron Allen run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
50
+5
99.1%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Smoke Harris for 5 yds to the HstnB 45Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
99.1%
Greg Garner run for no gain to the HstnB 45Similar
Q4 13:25
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+9
99.1%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Smoke Harris for 9 yds to the HstnB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
99.1%
ALLEN, Aaron pass intercepted by Fluellen, Tra at the HBU0, Fluellen, Tra return to the HBU0, PENALTY HBU pass interference (Fluellen, Tra) 15 yards to the HBU21, 1ST DOWN TECH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+16
99.1%
Aaron Allen run for 16 yds to the HstnB 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
99.1%
Greg Garner run for 3 yds to the HstnB 2Similar
Q4 8:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Greg Garner run for 2 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 25TD
11 plays · 85 yds · 3:100% → 1%
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
99.9%
Danny Lenard II run for 5 yds to the HstnB 20Similar
Q4 8:52
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+13
99.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Josh Sterns for 13 yds to the HstnB 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
99.9%
Danny Lenard II run for 2 yds to the HstnB 35Similar
Q4 8:52
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+4
99.9%
Bailey Zappe run for 4 yds to the HstnB 39Similar
Q4 8:52
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+48
99.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Ben Ratzlaff for 48 yds to the LaTch 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
99.9%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Josh SternsSimilar
Q4 8:52
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
99.9%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:52
3RD & 10
OPP 13
0
99.9%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:52
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+12
99.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Ben Ratzlaff for 12 yds to the LaTch 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.2%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 1 yd for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 26TD
10 plays · 62 yds · 4:20100% → 100%
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.6%
Greg Garner run for no gain to the LaTch 38Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+7
99.6%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Kyle Maxwell for 7 yds to the LaTch 45Similar
Q4 5:35
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+14
99.6%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Greg Garner for 14 yds to the HstnB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+19
99.6%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Wayne Toussant for 4 yds to the HstnB 37 for a 1ST down HOUSTON BAPTIST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Caleb Johnson) to the HstnB 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
99.6%
Greg Garner run for 9 yds to the HstnB 13Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+6
99.6%
Greg Garner run for 6 yds to the HstnB 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.6%
Greg Garner run for no gain to the HstnB 7Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
100.0%
Westin Elliott pass complete to Kyle Maxwell for 7 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 27END OF GAME
4 plays · 26 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.9%
Danny Lenard II run for 8 yds to the HstnB 33Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+7
99.9%
Danny Lenard II run for 7 yds to the HstnB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
100.0%
Danny Lenard II run for 11 yds to the LaTch 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:48
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 2 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)
-5.2
TD · Q3 7:50
Luke Anthony pass complete to Jawaun Johnson for 41 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)
+3.9
TD · Q2 12:01
Justin Henderson run for 3 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)
+2.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com