Try the model
TROY

Troy 10 at App State 47

APP
2020 · Week 13 · Nov 28, 2020 · Kidd Brewer Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · APP
modelAPP aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playAPP scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDEnd of GameFG-5.6APP 87.9%Evan Legassey 27 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 28 · Q2 8:36
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:36 · Evan Legassey 27 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 56Pregame prior+22.5Home team on offense+13.9Score differential+0.7Garbage-time factor+0.2Blowout margin+2.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:56: Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 22 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +6.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 8:36: Evan Legassey 27 yd FG GOOD — TROY win probability +5.6 pts (now 12%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 5:32: Chandler Staton 42 yd FG GOOD — APP win probability +4.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 4:35: Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 33 yds for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK) — TROY win probability +5.4 pts (now 8%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:02: Zac Thomas pass complete to Henry Pearson for 6 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton PAT MISSED) — APP win probability +3.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
APP made the numbers' call on 4 of 5TROY made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00TROY 4th & 6 at TROY 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:16TROY 4th & 6 at TROY 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:09TROY 4th & 4 at TROY 31, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:36TROY 4th & 6 at APP 9, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.5%
    89% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−4.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:32APP 4th & 10 at TROY 25, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.4%
    66% to make
    Punt
    92.5%−1.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:03APP 4th & 12 at TROY 13, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%−0.8
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.1%
    85% to make
    Punt
    91.4%−3.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00APP 4th & 1 at APP 34, up 24
    Close callPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.1%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:51TROY 4th & 20 at TROY 12, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.8%−1.0
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:56TROY 4th & 7 at TROY 35, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:17APP 4th & 2 at TROY 2, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00TROY 4th & 7 at TROY 28, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:40APP 4th & 4 at TROY 19, up 37
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−<0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:42TROY 4th & 1 at APP 46, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    -0.1%−0.2
    23% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:42TROY 4th & 2 at APP 19, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−<0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
APP made the numbers' call on 6 of 6TROY made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 12:16APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:58APP Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:09APP Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:56APP Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:35TROY Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:02APP Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:17APP Touchdown, up 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
83.1%
Jamontez Woods run for 2 yds to the Troy 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+5
83.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jamontez Woods for 5 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 30
-3
83.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jamontez Woods for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 27Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 27
0
83.1%
Jack Martin punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Malik Williams at the AppSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2TD
3 plays · 72 yds · 0:5083% → 83%
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
82.6%
Camerun Peoples run for 9 yds to the AppSt 37Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 1
OWN 37
0
82.6%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Henry PearsonSimilar
Q1 12:16
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+63
83.0%
Camerun Peoples run for 63 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
82.9%
TROY Penalty, false start (Derrick Graham) to the Troy 20Similar
Q1 12:16
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+1
82.9%
Jamontez Woods run for 1 yd to the Troy 21Similar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+3
82.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Khalil McClain for 3 yds to the Troy 24Similar
Q1 12:16
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+5
82.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 5 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q1 12:16
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
83.0%
Jack Martin punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Malik Williams at the AppSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 2:2183% → 85%
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-4
82.8%
Nate Noel run for a loss of 4 yards to the AppSt 25Similar
Q1 10:19
2ND & 14
OWN 25
+20
82.8%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 20 yds to the AppSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
83.0%
Nate Noel run for 6 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q1 10:19
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+17
83.1%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 17 yds to the Troy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+17
83.1%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 17 yds to the Troy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
84.8%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 15 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5INT TD
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4916% → 14%
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.1%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to B.J. SmithSimilar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
84.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 6 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q1 7:09
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-34
86.4%
Gunnar Watson pass intercepted for a TD Steven Jones return for 34 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
86.5%
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the Troy 27Similar
Q1 7:09
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
86.5%
B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the Troy 28Similar
Q1 7:09
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+3
86.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to B.J. Smith for 3 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q1 7:09
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
86.6%
Jack Martin punt for 66 yds, downed at the AppSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 7TD
12 plays · 97 yds · 5:0587% → 95%
Q1 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+7
87.0%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 7 yds to the AppSt 10Similar
Q1 5:01
2ND & 3
OWN 10
+2
87.2%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the AppSt 12Similar
Q1 5:01
3RD & 1
OWN 12
+1
87.1%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 1 yd to the AppSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+14
87.2%
Zac Thomas run for 14 yds to the AppSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+19
87.3%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 4 yds to the AppSt 31 for a 1ST down TROY Penalty, personal foul (Carlton Martial) to the AppSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
87.7%
Camerun Peoples run for 7 yds to the Troy 47Similar
Q1 5:01
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+6
87.8%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 6 yds to the Troy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
87.8%
Malik Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 43Similar
Q1 5:01
2ND & 12
OPP 43
0
87.7%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Henry PearsonSimilar
Q1 5:01
3RD & 12
OPP 43
+20
87.3%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 20 yds to the Troy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
87.9%
Zac Thomas run for 1 yd to the Troy 22Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+22
94.5%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 22 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8FG
15 plays · 66 yds · 6:206% → 12%
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
94.2%
Jamontez Woods run for 4 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-5
93.9%
Watson, Gunnar pass complete to McClain, Khalil for 11 yards to the TROY40, out-of-bounds, PENALTY TROY ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the TROY24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+14
94.2%
Jamontez Woods run for 14 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
94.1%
Jamontez Woods run for 4 yds to the Troy 42Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 6
OWN 42
-1
93.8%
Jamontez Woods run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 41Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+13
94.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jamontez Woods for 13 yds to the AppSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+22
93.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Bret Clark for 22 yds to the AppSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
93.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Reggie Todd for 5 yds to the AppSt 19Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+2
93.3%
DK Billingsley run for 2 yds to the AppSt 17Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+4
93.5%
DK Billingsley run for 4 yds to the AppSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
93.6%
B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the AppSt 12Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+3
93.5%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the AppSt 9Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 6
OPP 9
0
93.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Reggie ToddSimilar
Q2 8:36
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+27
87.9%
Evan Legassey 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 9FG
11 plays · 35 yds · 2:5893% → 97%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
92.8%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Malik Williams, broken up by Kyle NixonSimilar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+6
92.8%
Nate Noel run for 6 yds to the AppSt 46Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+5
92.5%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 5 yds to the Troy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
92.9%
Nate Noel run for 11 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+13
93.0%
Nate Noel run for 13 yds to the Troy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
93.0%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Henry PearsonSimilar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-5
93.0%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (Thomas Hennigan) to the Troy 30Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 15
OPP 30
0
92.9%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Nate Noel, broken up by Reddy StewardSimilar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 15
OPP 30
+5
92.8%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 5 yds to the Troy 25Similar
Q2 5:32
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+42
97.4%
Chandler Staton 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10TD
6 plays · 85 yds · 0:572% → 8%
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
97.6%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Kaylon GeigerSimilar
Q2 5:32
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+22
97.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Khalil McClain for 22 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
97.5%
Jamontez Woods run for 15 yds to the AppSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
97.4%
Watson, Gunnar pass incomplete to McClain, Khalil, PENALTY APP pass interference (Jones, Steven) 15 yards to the APP33, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
92.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 33 yds for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 11FG
22 plays · 62 yds · 4:3294% → 95%
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
94.2%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 5 yds to the AppSt 30Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
94.3%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (Cooper Hodges) to the AppSt 25Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
94.2%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 12 yds to the AppSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
94.3%
Camerun Peoples run for 1 yd to the AppSt 38Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+7
94.4%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 7 yds to the AppSt 45Similar
Q2 4:35
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+2
94.2%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Camerun Peoples for 2 yds to the AppSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
94.4%
Camerun Peoples run for no gain to the AppSt 47Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+6
94.4%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 6 yds to the Troy 47Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+11
95.6%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 11 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
95.8%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Malik Williams, broken up by Dell PettusSimilar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
95.8%
Zac Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+25
95.6%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 25 yds to the Troy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
95.8%
Thomas, Zac pass incomplete, PENALTY TROY substitution infraction 5 yards to the TROY6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 5
OPP 6
-5
95.7%
Thomas, Zac pass incomplete to Hennigan, T., PENALTY APP ineligible downfield on pass (Hunter, Baer) 5 yards to the TROY11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
95.8%
Camerun Peoples run for no gain to the Troy 11Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 10
OPP 11
-2
95.6%
Zac Thomas sacked by AJ Pierce for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 13 APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, intentional grounding (Zac Thomas) to the Troy 13Similar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 12
OPP 13
0
95.1%
Malik Williams pass incomplete to Zac ThomasSimilar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 12
OPP 13
+30
95.3%
Chandler Staton 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
93.6%
Jamontez Woods run for 5 yds to the Troy 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.5%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 5 yds to the AppSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
95.6%
Camerun Peoples run for 2 yds to the AppSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
95.6%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Miller Gibbs for 2 yds to the AppSt 34Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
95.4%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the Troy 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:005% → 4%
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-9
95.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 3 yds to the Troy 25 TROY Penalty, personal foul (-12 Yards) to the Troy 13Similar
Q3 12:51
1ST & 19
OWN 13
0
95.6%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Reggie Todd, broken up by Shaun JollySimilar
Q3 12:51
2ND & 19
OWN 13
-1
95.6%
Jamontez Woods run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 12Similar
Q3 12:51
3RD & 20
OWN 12
0
95.6%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Jamontez WoodsSimilar
Q3 12:51
4TH & 20
OWN 12
+63
95.6%
Jack Martin punt for 53 yds, downed at the APPALCHAN 35 APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Milan Tucker) to the AppSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 15TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:2496% → 100%
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
96.3%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 20 yds to the AppSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
96.5%
Nate Noel run for 11 yds to the Troy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
96.5%
Zac Thomas run for 2 yds to the Troy 42Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+7
96.5%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 7 yds to the Troy 35Similar
Q3 11:26
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+5
96.4%
Nate Noel run for 5 yds to the Troy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
96.5%
Nate Noel run for 5 yds to the Troy 25Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+9
96.5%
Nate Noel run for 9 yds to the Troy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
96.5%
Nate Noel run for 8 yds to the Troy 8Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 2
OPP 8
+7
96.5%
Nate Noel run for 7 yds to the Troy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
96.5%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (Cooper Hodges) to the Troy 6Similar
Q3 6:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.6%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Henry Pearson for 6 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
99.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Bret Clark, broken up by Demetrius TaylorSimilar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
99.5%
Jamontez Woods run for no gain to the Troy 32Similar
Q3 5:56
3RD & 10
OWN 32
-5
99.5%
TROY Penalty, false start (Derrick Graham) to the Troy 27Similar
Q3 5:56
3RD & 15
OWN 27
+8
99.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to B.J. Smith for 8 yds to the Troy 35Similar
Q3 5:56
4TH & 7
OWN 35
0
99.5%
Jack Martin punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AppSt 25 , Malik Williams returns for no gain to the AppSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 17TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:58100% → 100%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.7%
Camerun Peoples run for 2 yds to the AppSt 27Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
99.7%
Camerun Peoples run for 9 yds to the AppSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+54
99.7%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Christan Horn for 54 yds to the Troy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
99.7%
Camerun Peoples run for 2 yds to the Troy 8 Camerun Peoples fumbled, forced by Luis Medina, recovered by AppSt Noah HannonSimilar
Q3 4:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
99.7%
Nate Noel run for 3 yds to the Troy 5Similar
Q3 4:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
99.7%
Zac Thomas run for 3 yds to the Troy 2Similar
Q3 0:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.8%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Caleb Spurlin for 2 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:170% → 0%
Q3 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.8%
Parker McNeil run for 3 yds to the Troy 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
99.8%
Parker McNeil pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
99.8%
Parker McNeil pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
99.8%
Kyle Coale punt for 46 yds, downed at the AppSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 19DOWNS
5 plays · 58 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+49
99.8%
Anderson Castle run for 49 yds to the Troy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
99.8%
Anderson Castle run for 1 yd to the Troy 24Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+4
99.8%
Anderson Castle run for 4 yds to the Troy 20Similar
Q4 14:40
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+1
99.8%
Anderson Castle run for 1 yd to the Troy 19Similar
Q4 14:40
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+3
99.8%
Anderson Castle run for 3 yds to the Troy 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20END OF GAME
19 plays · 77 yds · 11:070% → 0%
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
99.9%
Strong, Charles rush for 1 yard to the TROY17 (Dingle-Prince), PENALTY APP offside 5 yards to the TROY21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:42
1ST & 5
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Charles Strong run for no gain to the Troy 21Similar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+4
99.9%
Charles Strong run for 4 yds to the Troy 25Similar
Q4 11:42
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Charles Strong run for 3 yds to the Troy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
99.9%
Kyle Toole run for 4 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+5
99.9%
Strong, Charles rush for no gain to the TROY32 (Dawkins, Tommy;Ellenberger, T.), PENALTY APP offside (Ellenberger, T.) 5 yards to the TROY37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+8
99.9%
Charles Strong run for 8 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
99.9%
Charles Strong run for 1 yd to the Troy 46Similar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+5
99.9%
Billingsley, DK rush for 6 yards to the APP48 (Bird, Tyler), PENALTY APP offside (Walliser, T.) 5 yards to the APP49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+1
99.9%
DK Billingsley run for 1 yd to the AppSt 48Similar
Q4 11:42
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+2
99.9%
Josh Mays run for 2 yds to the AppSt 46Similar
Q4 11:42
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+19
99.9%
Charles Strong run for 4 yds to the AppSt 42 for a 1ST down APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, personal foul (Christian Johnstone) to the AppSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
99.9%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the AppSt 24Similar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+1
99.9%
DK Billingsley run for 1 yd to the AppSt 23Similar
Q4 11:42
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+4
99.9%
DK Billingsley run for 4 yds to the AppSt 19Similar
Q4 11:42
4TH & 2
OPP 19
+3
99.8%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the AppSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
99.9%
Kyle Toole run for 3 yds to the AppSt 13Similar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+4
99.9%
Josh Mays run for 4 yds to the AppSt 9Similar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+2
100.0%
Josh Mays run for 2 yds to the AppSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:56
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 22 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)
+6.7
FG · Q2 8:36
Evan Legassey 27 yd FG GOOD
-5.6
TD · Q2 4:35
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 33 yds for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK)
-5.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com