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TXST

Texas State 38 at Georgia Southern 40

GASO
2020 · Week 11 · Nov 14, 2020 · Allen E. Paulson Stadium
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Win probability · GASO
modelGASO aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playGASO scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Sione Tupou pass intercepted Quin Williams return for no gain to the GeoSo 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 40Pregame prior+22.5Home team on offense+2.9Garbage-time factor−0.3Score differential+1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Blowout margin+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:13: Tyler Vitt pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 43 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK) — TXST win probability +12.0 pts (now 33%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:08: Shai Werts run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK) — GASO win probability +10.4 pts (now 81%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:03: Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for 59 yds for a TD — TXST win probability +15.3 pts (now 32%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 14:22: Wesley Kennedy III run for 6 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK) — GASO win probability +16.9 pts (now 87%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:50: Brady McBride pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 24 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK) — TXST win probability +33.0 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GASO made the numbers' call on 5 of 7TXST made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 14:54TXST 4th & 10 at TXST 45, tied
    Close callWent for it · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.5%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    21.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:05GASO 4th & 15 at TXST 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.0%−0.4
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.4%
    80% to make
    Punt
    77.2%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00TXST 4th & 2 at GASO 49, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    21.1%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:09GASO 4th & 4 at TXST 24, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.9%−0.3
    68% to make
    Punt
    75.4%−3.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:13GASO 4th & 6 at GASO 29, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:00TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 42, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    32.1%−1.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:38GASO 4th & 1 at TXST 32, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    67.9%−1.9
    51% to make
    Punt
    66.7%−3.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:08TXST 4th & 3 at TXST 32, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:09GASO 4th & 9 at TXST 22, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.7%−1.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.9%
    72% to make
    Punt
    70.8%−7.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00GASO 4th & 3 at TXST 10, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.4%
    49% to convert
    Field goal
    69.3%−1.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    56.8%−13.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:18TXST 4th & 3 at GASO 10, down 9
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.7%−1.2
    88% to make
    Punt
    3.7%−10.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:15GASO 4th & 2 at TXST 3, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.2%−2.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    78.4%−11.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GASO made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TXST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:59GASO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:25GASO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:30TXST Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:13TXST Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:08GASO Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:22GASO Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:50TXST Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.5%−1.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1DOWNS
6 plays · -27 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
79.3%
Brock Sturges run for 11 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
79.3%
Brock Sturges run for no gain to the TexSt 45Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
79.3%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Brock SturgesSimilar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
79.3%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:54
4TH & 10
OWN 45
-15
79.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 15 yards to the TexSt 7 TEAM fumbled, recovered by TexStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 2TD
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:4279% → 80%
Q1 13:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
79.1%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 6 yds to the TexSt 1Similar
Q1 12:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
79.5%
Shai Werts run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 4TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:1979% → 80%
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
78.8%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
78.8%
Shai Werts run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 33Similar
Q1 12:44
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
78.7%
Justin Tomlin run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
78.8%
Shai Werts pass complete to Dexter Carter Jr. for 8 yds to the GeoSo 47Similar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 2
OWN 47
0
78.9%
Shai Werts run for no gain to the GeoSo 47Similar
Q1 12:44
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+18
78.9%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 18 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
79.0%
Logan Wright run for 6 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+29
79.8%
Shai Werts run for 29 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
79.3%
Tyler Vitt pass intercepted Rashad Byrd return for 5 yds to the TexSt 30 TEXAS STATE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-13 Yards) to the TexSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 6FG
4 plays · -5 yds · 2:1380% → 79%
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
79.8%
Gerald Green run for no gain to the TexSt 12Similar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+3
79.8%
Shai Werts run for 3 yds to the TexSt 9Similar
Q1 8:18
3RD & 7
OPP 9
-8
79.7%
Shai Werts sacked by Markeveon Coleman for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSt 17Similar
Q1 6:05
4TH & 15
OPP 17
+34
79.2%
Alex Raynor 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7INT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
79.2%
Calvin Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 24Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
79.3%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:05
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+12
79.5%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 12 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
79.0%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 1 yd to the TexSt 37Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+2
79.0%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Chandler Speights for 2 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q1 6:05
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
79.1%
Tyler Vitt pass intercepted Kenderick Duncan Jr. return for no gain to the GeoSo 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 8FUMBLE
5 plays · 28 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
80.0%
Logan Wright run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 35Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+20
80.2%
Logan Wright run for 20 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-4
80.5%
Shai Werts run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 49Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 14
OPP 49
+8
80.2%
Shai Werts run for 8 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q1 3:32
3RD & 6
OPP 41
-3
80.2%
Shai Werts run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 43 Shai Werts fumbled, recovered by TexSt Markeveon ColemanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9INT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1021% → 21%
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
79.2%
Brock Sturges run for 3 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+4
79.0%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:10
3RD & 3
50
+1
79.0%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 1 yd to the GeoSo 49Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 49
0
79.4%
Sione Tupou pass intercepted Quin Williams return for no gain to the GeoSo 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 10FG
5 plays · 42 yds · 2:4480% → 85%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+36
79.9%
Shai Werts run for 36 yds to the TexSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
80.6%
Logan Wright run for 1 yd to the TexSt 29Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+2
80.5%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 2 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+3
80.2%
Shai Werts run for 3 yds to the TexSt 24Similar
Q2 12:09
4TH & 4
OPP 24
+41
84.5%
Alex Raynor 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:3917% → 25%
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
82.8%
Calvin Hill run for 7 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+7
82.4%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 7 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
82.5%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 9 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+5
81.9%
Calvin Hill run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
82.1%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 8 yds to the GeoSo 39Similar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+3
81.9%
Tyler Vitt run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
82.1%
Calvin Hill run for no gain to the GeoSo 36Similar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+11
82.1%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 11 yds to the GeoSo 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
81.4%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 9 yds to the GeoSo 16Similar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+5
81.4%
Calvin Hill run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
74.6%
Calvin Hill run for 11 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 12INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
78.9%
Shai Werts pass intercepted Jarron Morris return for 6 yds to the GeoSo 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13TD
1 play · 43 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
67.0%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 43 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0070% → 69%
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
70.3%
Gerald Green run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 31Similar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
71.5%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q2 7:13
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
70.1%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 34Similar
Q2 7:13
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
69.7%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q2 7:13
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
69.0%
Anthony Beck II punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Haydel at the TexSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0033% → 32%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
67.1%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 2 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
67.2%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+7
68.2%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 7 yds to the TexSt 42Similar
Q2 5:00
4TH & 1
OWN 42
-1
67.6%
Tyler Vitt run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 16TD
5 plays · 41 yds · 2:3072% → 81%
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
71.5%
Shai Werts run for no gain to the TexSt 41Similar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+3
71.4%
Matt LaRoche run for 3 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q2 3:38
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+6
71.1%
Shai Werts pass complete to Logan Wright for 6 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q2 3:38
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+30
70.2%
Shai Werts run for 28 yds to the TexSt 4 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, targeting (Derrick Ray) to the TexSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
80.6%
Shai Werts run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
76.6%
Brock Sturges run for 7 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
75.2%
Brady McBride pass incomplete, broken up by C.J. WrightSimilar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
76.6%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
Q2 1:08
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
77.4%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Wesley Kennedy III at the GeoSo 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 18END OF HALF
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
78.6%
Gerald Green run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 19FG
16 plays · 53 yds · 7:5179% → 84%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
78.7%
Logan Wright run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
79.3%
Shai Werts pass complete to Malik Murray for 3 yds to the GeoSo 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
78.8%
Logan Wright run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
79.6%
Matt LaRoche run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+10
80.2%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 10 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
80.4%
Shai Werts pass complete to Emil Smith for 6 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+4
80.4%
Matt LaRoche run for 4 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
80.4%
Shai Werts run for 7 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+2
80.5%
Shai Werts run for 2 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+4
79.9%
Logan Wright run for 4 yds to the TexSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
80.5%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, false start (Aaron Dowdell) to the TexSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 28
0
80.3%
Shai Werts pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 28
+8
79.9%
Shai Werts run for 8 yds to the TexSt 20Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 20
-2
79.9%
Shai Werts sacked by Emmanuel Galvan-Vazquez for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 22 GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 7:09
4TH & 9
OPP 22
+39
83.5%
Alex Raynor 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 1:0617% → 32%
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
82.9%
Calvin Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 34Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+7
83.3%
Brady McBride pass complete to Chandler Speights for 7 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q3 6:03
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+59
68.0%
Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for 59 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 21TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:4171% → 87%
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
70.5%
Shai Werts pass complete to Wesley Kennedy III for 23 yds to the GeoSo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
73.4%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 12 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
74.0%
Shai Werts pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 5 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+7
74.8%
Logan Wright run for 7 yds to the TexSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
74.8%
Logan Wright run for 4 yds to the TexSt 24Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+5
74.8%
Matt LaRoche run for 5 yds to the TexSt 19Similar
Q3 6:03
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+2
73.5%
Logan Wright run for 2 yds to the TexSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
74.8%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 5 yds to the TexSt 12Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+3
74.8%
Gerald Green run for 3 yds to the TexSt 9Similar
Q3 6:03
3RD & 2
OPP 9
-1
73.5%
Shai Werts run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 10Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 10
+4
70.4%
Logan Wright run for 4 yds to the TexSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
87.3%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 6 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22FG
12 plays · 57 yds · 3:5815% → 25%
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
84.6%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Brock Sturges, broken up by Quin WilliamsSimilar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+15
84.8%
Brady McBride pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 15 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
83.4%
Brady McBride pass complete to Drue Jackson for 10 yds to the GeoSo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
82.7%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Trevis Graham Jr., broken up by Derrick CanteenSimilar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+6
82.9%
Brock Sturges run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 36Similar
Q4 14:16
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+4
82.6%
Brock Sturges run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
81.6%
McBride, Brady pass incomplete to Barbee,Marcell (D. Baker Jr.), PENALTY GS pass interference (D. Baker Jr.) 15 yards to the GS17, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-6
81.2%
Brady McBride sacked by Reynard Ellis for a loss of 6 yards to the GeoSo 23Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 16
OPP 23
0
82.3%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Jeremiah Haydel, broken up by Reynard EllisSimilar
Q4 14:16
3RD & 16
OPP 23
+13
84.0%
Brady McBride run for 13 yds to the GeoSo 10Similar
Q4 10:18
4TH & 3
OPP 10
+27
75.2%
Seth Keller 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 23FG
13 plays · 76 yds · 5:5785% → 91%
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
85.2%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 28Similar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+2
85.8%
Gerald Green run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q4 10:12
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+32
85.0%
Logan Wright run for 32 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
87.3%
Wesley Kennedy III run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 40Similar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 12
OPP 40
0
86.9%
Shai Werts pass incomplete to Malik MurraySimilar
Q4 10:12
3RD & 12
OPP 40
+15
85.7%
S. Werts pass incomplete to K. Hood, QB hurry by Vinson,Hal, PENALTY TXST roughing passer (Vinson,Hal) 15 yards to the TXST25, 1ST DOWN GS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+14
87.6%
Matt LaRoche run for 14 yds to the TexSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
87.6%
Shai Werts run for 2 yds to the TexSt 9Similar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+2
87.6%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 2 yds to the TexSt 7Similar
Q4 10:12
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+4
86.6%
Logan Wright run for 4 yds to the TexSt 3Similar
Q4 4:15
4TH & 2
OPP 3
+20
91.4%
Alex Raynor 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 24TD
6 plays · 79 yds · 1:199% → 44%
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
91.1%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Trevis Graham Jr., broken up by Kenderick Duncan Jr.Similar
Q4 4:09
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+15
91.1%
McBride, Brady pass incomplete to Barbee,Marcell (D. Canteen), PENALTY GS pass interference (D. Canteen) 15 yards to the TXST36, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
89.6%
Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 11 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+29
88.9%
Brady McBride pass complete to Drue Jackson for 29 yds to the GeoSo 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
55.9%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 24 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 25END OF GAME
12 plays · 44 yds · 1:2274% → 88%
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
74.2%
Matt LaRoche run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 19Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+1
73.9%
Matt LaRoche run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 20Similar
Q4 2:12
3RD & 4
OWN 20
+27
73.2%
Matt LaRoche run for 27 yds to the GeoSo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
79.4%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 5 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+3
86.7%
Logan Wright run for 3 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
Q4 1:23
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+5
87.3%
Shai Werts run for 5 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
87.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 41Similar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 11
OPP 41
-1
87.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:50
Brady McBride pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 24 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)
-33
TD · Q4 14:22
Wesley Kennedy III run for 6 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)
+16.9
TD · Q3 6:03
Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for 59 yds for a TD
-15.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com